Record high crude exports in Vancouver have lifted short-haul Aframax rates in the region, pressuring the Vancouver-US west coast rate to its highest level since before the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) came online in May.
The rate to ship 80,000t of crude, or about 550,000 bl of Cold Lake, from Vancouver to the US west coast climbed to Worldscale (WS) 182.5, equivalent to $2.39/bl, on 29 October, the highest since 21 March. It sustained that level through 4 November before inching lower to WS180 on 5 November, according to Argus data.
The seven-month high came after a record 24 Aframaxes loaded at Vancouver's Westridge Marine Terminal in October, according to shipowner Teekay Tankers and ship-tracking data from Kpler. The previous record was 21 in July.
October's loadings coincided with a record 413,000 b/d of crude exported from the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline system the same month. Of the 24 Aframaxes, nine went directly to Asia-Pacific ports while five went to the Pacific Area Lightering zone (PAL) to discharge onto very large crude carriers (VLCCs). The remainder traveled to ports on the US west coast.
A recent shift in charterers' preferences to ship crude directly from Vancouver to destinations in Asia-Pacific, rather than via PAL, has contributed to the upward pressure in rates to the US west coast since September. Direct transpacific shipments remove vessels from the west coast North America market for about 45 days.
October's high number of Aframax loadings has had less of an impact on the rate for Vancouver-China shipments, which tend to load later in the loading window and open the number of potential vessels to ships in the east Asia market. Aframaxes hired for Vancouver-US west coast runs often are provisionally booked about five to 10 days in advance of loading, compared with 15-20 days in advance for Vancouver-China shipments.
The Vancouver-China Aframax rate was $2.8mn lumpsum, or $5.13/bl for Cold Lake, on 5 November, according to Argus data. That rate had been rangebound between $2.8mn and $2.9mn between 26 September and 5 November.
