A small shift in some finance discussions was perceptible today at the UN Cop 29 climate summit, as talks entered the second day of the political stage, and after G20 leaders reiterated support for climate action.
But talks on mitigation — reducing emissions — still appear rocky and dependent on progress on the finance goal.
A leaders' declaration from the G20 summit, which firmly backed the Paris climate agreement and action to tackle climate change, appeared to have provided some support to talks. The group committed to "successful negotiations" on the new finance goal for developing countries under discussion at Cop 29. G20 members also pledged to intensify efforts to reach net zero emissions by or around mid-century.
The climate finance goal, known as the new collective quantified goal (NCQG), is the focus of this year's Cop. Developed countries committed to deliver $100bn/yr in climate finance to developing nations over 2020-25, and all countries must now decide on the next iteration of this. Talks were stalling, with little change in position heard. Developing countries are broadly calling for $1.3 trillion/yr, while developed countries have not suggested an amount.
But there could be some possible movement on the contributor base. The UN climate body the UNFCCC uses a list of developing and developed countries from 1992, with 24 countries plus the EU on the latter. Several developed countries have argued for a wider contributor base, while several developing countries argue that they already provide finance. Argus understands that some developing countries, including China, have softened their stance on the issue. Any outcome is highly likely to denote contributions from UNFCCC-designated developing countries as voluntary, and the lists are not likely to be changed.
There is still space for a robust outcome on mitigation, a developed country representative said. But it is not clear where this could be covered if the official channel, the mitigation work programme, fails. There was little progress during meetings today on the programme, and there is little space elsewhere to cover mitigation topics. The Cop 29 presidency has said that it is not planning to produce a cover text — which can cover any issues not officially on the summit agenda. While mitigation could be covered in a follow-up to last year's global stocktake text, several countries are concerned about this option.
Language related to mitigation, including transitioning away from fossil fuels and phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, is currently mentioned in the draft text for the NCQG. Developed countries are likely to push for this language to stay — especially if mitigation talks falter — but countries including Saudi Arabia have long opposed this.
