Germany's coal phase-out targets are being reassessed owing to the likelihood of further delays to the passing of the power plant security act (KWSG), as well as decisions already taken on the future design of the electricity market.
Germany has pledged to phase out coal and lignite-fired generation by 2038 at the latest, but energy ministry BMWK said an earlier, market-driven phase-out by 2030 is possible. Grid regulator Bnetza said 21GW of new gas-fired capacity — which should in the future be hydrogen-ready — would be needed by 2031 for a complete coal phase-out.
Utility Leag said it does not see the current government changing the legal phase-out deadline. But "any further delay" to adding controllable replacement capacities would create an "urgent" situation, it said. And utility EnBW told Argus that it remains committed to phasing out coal by 2038 at the latest, while adding that "security of supply must not be jeopardised".
At a transmission system operators' (TSO) forum held in November, TSO Amprion's Peter Lopion said the KWSG is vital to encourage plant construction in the south, where more gas-fired capacity is crucial if coal is to be phased out. He also raised concerns about Germany's target to phase out gas-fired power by 2045 — the year in which the country aims to reach climate neutrality — given the lack of a hydrogen economy and hydrogen production.
Earlier this month, the CDU/CSU opposition parties commissioned an investigation into the feasibility of reactivating decommissioned nuclear plants, seeing the shutdown of Germany's final nuclear plant in April 2023 as "ideologically wrong". EnBW has told Argus that the decommissioning of its 1.4GW GKN II plant — the dismantling of which began in May 2023 — is "virtually irreversible".
