Sales of pellet-fired boilers and stoves for residential consumption are set to fall in 2025, after reaching record highs in 2024, partly because of government subsidies in Austria and Germany.
The Austrian government has offered subsidies of up to €18,000 ($18,800) towards the price of a pellet stove or boiler — around 75pc of the cost of the appliance. The subsidies have been in place for the past two years, with the aim of incentivising households to switch away from fossil fuels. Low-income consumers are able to qualify for a subsidy of up to 100pc of the cost of a stove or boiler. This pushed up Austrian new boiler purchases to a record high of 19,181 in January-November, leading to expectations that full-year sales will surpass 2022 full-year sales of 21,629, figures from industry association ProPellets Austria show. Austrian pellet consumption is expected to reach 1.4mn t in 2024, well above the 1.2 mn t sold a year earlier.
But Austrian elections earlier this year have resulted in a new and more conservative coalition government taking office, which will likely alter the subsidy scheme and reduce the subsidies' value. Coalition negotiations are currently ongoing.
Several customer registrations for the subsidy scheme are still being finalised, so these buyers will likely purchase their boilers using the subsidies in the new year, according to ProPellets Austria data. This means boiler sales will probably be above the long-term average next year but below 2024 sales.
Germany has launched a similar subsidy scheme, covering up to 70pc of the cost of a boiler. Wood pellet exports out of the country decreased by 139,705t on the year to 512,980t in January-September, customs data show, suggesting increased local demand.
Wood pellet consumption in Switzerland is also expected to be stronger year on year, at 470,000t this year compared with 416,197t in 2023, according to wood pellet association ProPellets Switzerland data and projections.
Meanwhile, pellet demand from the Italian and French markets has decreased on the year as the consumer base in those countries has declined. Italian and French households are not using pellet-fired stoves or boilers for their heating needs as much as they did in the past. And several buyers in Italy and France were still relying on stocks carried over from the previous year, as mild weather reduced consumption that year.
Italian household pellet consumption fell to an estimated 2.2mn-2.4mn t in 2024 from around 3mn t/yr a year earlier, and this has weighed on pellet trading activity with pellet producers in the Baltic region — one of the main suppliers to the Italian market. Higher transport costs made it unprofitable to import pellets from the Baltic — which is over 700-800km away from Italy. And the cost of raw materials in the Baltic region increased this year, meaning pellets from the region were outpriced by pellets from other markets. Italian buyers are now heavily reliant on cheaper Brazilian pellets, which has also weighed on imports from other countries. Italy imported 262,245t from Brazil in January-September, up from 186,770t over the same period in 2023, the latest customs data show. This trend could continue well into 2025, with Brazil becoming an increasingly influential sourcing country for Europe. Danish imports from Brazil rose to 77,375t in January-November 2024 from just 1,110t a year earlier, customs data show.
