European aviation's Paris climate agreement-aligned carbon budget will be depleted by 2026 if air traffic grows as industry expects in the coming years, according to a study by Brussels-based non-governmental organisation Transport & Environment.
While the EU has pledged to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the aviation sector is still expected to emit 79mn t CO2 by this date, according to scenarios put forward by European aircraft manufacturer Airbus and US-based Boeing.
Airbus sees air traffic growing at an average rate of 5.7pc/yr in 2024-27 and by 2.6pc/yr in 2024-43, while Boeing expects a 5.6pc/yr rise in 2024-33 and a 2.5pc/yr rise in 2024-43, Transport & Environment said. If these projections are accurate, the aviation sector carbon budget needed to remain in line with the Paris accord's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels would be depleted by 2026, the study found.
Aircraft will have to burn 59pc more fuel in 2050 than in 2019 to meet this increased demand, the study found, even after taking into consideration efficiency improvements. This growth in traffic would also cancel out the benefits of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs).
The expected growth also implies that the sector could be burning as much fossil kerosine in 2050 as it did in 2023 — some 21.1mn t — even with 42pc of fuel use covered by SAFs under EU mandates, Transport & Environment said.
The EU expects air traffic growth to be 60pc lower than the Airbus and Boeing projections. But even this smaller increase would mean emissions rising by 46pc by 2040 against 1990 levels, the study found.
Transport & Environment called for all flights departing the EU to be included in the bloc's emissions trading system (ETS) by 2027, as part of efforts to make air ticket prices reflect the sector's climate impact. The scheme currently applies only to journeys within the European Economic Area.
Tax exemptions on jet fuel should also be removed and value added tax applied to air tickets, the NGO said.
It also recommended halting the expansion of airport infrastructure and improving rail infrastructure so that the railways can compete with air travel. And it called for penalties for non-compliance with SAF mandates and financial support for SAF production through auctions and contracts for difference.
The European Commission's proposed target to cut the EU's overall net emissions by 90pc by 2040 from 1990 levels "is completely meaningless without concrete policies to reduce emissions from aviation", the NGO's aviation director, Jo Dardenne, said.
