LPG imports to Asia from the two countries are forecast to rise by around a third by 2030, writes Ieva Paldaviciute
LPG output from the Middle East's leading exporters Qatar and the UAE is due to rise significantly by the end of this decade, primarily driven by the development of LNG-related projects in both countries.
Qatar produced around 10.7mn t of LPG in 2024, but output is likely to grow by around 75pc to 17.6mn t/yr by 2030, Argus Consulting forecasts. This will be driven by state-owned QatarEnergy's North Field expansion project that intends to gradually boost the state's LNG production capacity to 142mn t/yr by 2030, from the current 77mn t/yr. Even though geared towards boosting LNG output, the North Field expansion will simultaneously increase LPG production as it is a by-product of LNG extraction and processing.
The project will be developed in three phases — 32mn t/yr North Field East (NFE), 16mn t/yr North Field South (NFS) and 16mn t/yr North Field West (NFW). The NFE phase is due to start commercial operations by mid-2025 and will yield around 4.2mn t/yr of additional LPG production from 2026, Argus Consulting estimates. NFS will add around 1.96mn t/yr of LPG by 2027, and NFW will add close to 1mn t/yr LPG in 2030 and another 1mn t/yr in 2031. QatarEnergy sells its LPG through spot and term deals, with supplies heading almost exclusively to Asia.
Meanwhile, the UAE produced around 12.5mn t of LPG in 2024, with output forecast to grow by around 20pc to 15mn t by 2030, according to Argus Consulting. This growth will primarily stem from three large projects that are now under development by state-owned Adnoc Gas. The 9.6mn t/yr Ruwais LNG project on Das Island will more than double the UAE's LNG capacity of 5.8mn t/yr. The project is scheduled to start operations in the second half of 2028 and it will simultaneously boost LPG production.
Adnoc's Meram — maximising ethane recovery and monetisation — project aims to increase ethane extraction from Adnoc Gas' onshore facilities in the Habshan complex by 35-40pc by constructing new gas processing facilities, as well as "enable and optimise feedstock supply" to the Ruwais industrial complex. Adnoc Gas anticipates Meram to be completed in 2026, with Argus Consulting forecasting the project to start yielding close to 700,000 t/yr of LPG from 2026.
Adnoc Gas is also nearing completion of the second phase of its integrated gas development expansion project (IDG-E2), which will enable the Habshan plant to process an additional 370mn ft³/d (3.8bn m³/yr) of offshore gas. This expansion, expected to be finalised in the first quarter of this year, could lead to an increase in associated gas products such as LPG.
These three projects together will raise both gas and liquids processing capacities by around 30pc by 2029, but Adnoc Gas notes that additional pre-final investment decision projects will further contribute to growth post-2029.
All roads lead to Asia
These new developments should significantly increase the amount of LPG exports from Qatar and the UAE. Qatar has been exporting around 10mn t/yr of LPG since 2015, while the UAE's exports stood closer to 11mn t/yr in 2023-24, Kpler data show. Almost all LPG exports from the Middle East head to Asian countries, led by India, which took around half of all exports from Qatar and around 70pc from the UAE's exports in 2024.
The UAE and Qatar appear to be confident that the growing appetite of Asian importers will provide a home for the increasing LPG supplies. Imports to Asia are likely to rise by around a third to 108mn t by 2030 from 2023, Argus Consulting data show. Rising supplies in the Middle East will allow the region to compete with the US, which may be increasingly important should a new US-China trade war unfold, although the Middle East would be unable to fill the needs of China as well as India.
