The prime minister's focus is on Canada becoming a superpower in conventional and clean energy, writes Yulia Golub
Canadians will vote for a new federal government on 28 April after recently assumed prime minister Mark Carney triggered an election on 23 March. The new leader has moved ahead in the polls and is running on more favourable policies for the country's fossil fuel industry, having already axed a carbon tax on the sector.
Carney, who was sworn into office on 14 March after former prime minister Justin Trudeau stepped down, will face off against Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. The Conservatives were widely expected to rout the Liberals and form the next government until a remarkable rebound in polling by the Liberals over the past two months, which has been attributed to the replacement of the increasingly unpopular Trudeau as well as rising anti-US sentiment linked to US president Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada and "51st state" rhetoric.
Carney has removed a carbon tax on fossil fuels from 1 April, ending a contentious federal policy among the electorate. Abolishing the carbon tax has been one of Poilievre's campaign pillars. Canada will become a superpower in "both conventional and clean energies", says Carney, who has mentioned the need for more pipelines, trade corridors and energy infrastructure to diversify Canada's energy exports away from the US. The shift in energy policy priorities under the prime minister makes him more closely aligned with the Conservatives.
Carney's strong opposition to the Trump administration is boosting his appeal, while Poilievre is increasingly being seen as having similarities to Trump. "We are facing the most significant crisis of our lifetimes because of President Trump's unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty," Carney said on 23 March when he announced the election. Speaking four days later after Trump said a new 25pc tax on imported vehicles and vehicle parts would be "permanent", the prime minister declared the "old relationship we had with the US... is over".
Canada imposed retaliatory 25pc tariffs on select US goods from 4 February, subsequently delayed until 4 March, and says it plans to introduce additional tariffs if Trump follows through with his pledge to slap even higher taxes on the US' trading partners from 2 April. The two leaders held their first call on 28 March, in which they agreed to negotiate new economic and security agreements after the 28 April election. "We had a very, very good talk," Trump said.
The US' 10pc tariff on Canadian energy imports remains in place. Canada's largest oil and gas firms have asked the government to declare an "energy crisis" to expedite new pipelines, ports and LNG facilities, while bolstering trade relationships beyond the US, streamlining regulation and reducing project approval timelines.
Propane pain
Propane costs for consumers in Canada and the US are expected to rise as a result of the 10pc tariff, panellists at the Canada Clean Fuels Summit said on 25 March. "Even if the tariffs are eventually lifted, there is no guarantee added costs will disappear," the Canadian Propane Association's vice-president of government relations, Katie Kachur, said. The tariffs could cost propane suppliers up to $200mn/yr, she said. Canada is exporting more propane by sea to Asia but most — about 62pc in 2024, customs data show — heads to the US, Kachur said.
Canadian LPG term contract prices for the 2025-26 contract year starting on 1 April are falling owing to uncertainty over the 10pc tariff and forecasts for rising domestic production. Producers and buyers usually finalise deals early in the year but negotiations this year are yet to be concluded. Prices for propane from western Canada's Edmonton hub are being discussed at 23-25¢/USG ($120-130.50/t) discounts to equivalent prices at the US midcontinent hub of Conway, compared with 19-25¢/USG discounts for 2024-25. Term contracts for Edmonton butane are being discussed at 39-41pc of the calendar month average of Nymex WTI crude, down from 40-44pc.
