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15/05/25

Global battery demand rises close to 1TWh in 2024: IEA

Global battery demand rises close to 1TWh in 2024: IEA

Singapore, 15 May (Argus) — Global battery demand across electric vehicle (EV) and storage applications rose to almost 1TWh in 2024, according to energy watchdog the IEA, in its latest report. Demand was largely driven by EV sales growth, with EV battery demand growing by more than 25pc on the year to over 950GWh, mainly propelled by electric cars which accounted for over 85pc of EV battery demand, said the IEA in its EV Outlook 2025 . The almost 1TWh of demand is expected to more than triple to over 3TWh in 2030 under the IEA's stated policies scenario (Steps), which is based on countries' prevailing policies , with more demand from electric trucks despite electric cars still making up the majority of demand. EV battery demand rose by more than 30pc on the year in China, and currently takes up 59pc of total global EV battery demand. US demand has also grown, with the country taking up 13pc of the total share, on par with the EU. The IEA expects critical minerals supply surplus to persist over the next few years but cautioned that depressed prices could dissuade future investments and lead to supply shortages for lithium and nickel by 2030. "It will take about a decade before recycling has a significant impact on reducing primary mineral demand," said the IEA, citing feedstock limitations. Recent raw material prices for battery recyclers in China, the largest battery recycling market, remain higher than their battery recycling yields such as recycled lithium, nickel and cobalt, a Chinese battery recycler told Argus . Domestic battery recycling plants operating rates are "not high," the battery recycler said, with very thin activity in the domestic black mass market. Excessive battery capacity Global battery cell manufacturing capacity grew by almost 30pc in 2024 to 3.3TWh, more than triple the battery demand, according to the report. South Korean battery manufacturers accounted for over 400GWh of overseas battery manufacturing capacity in 2024, much higher than the 60GWh from Japanese manufacturers and 30GWh from Chinese manufacturers. South Korea's battery manufacturing is poised to further expand to more than 1TWh in 2030, almost double that of Chinese manufacturers, if all announced projects materialise. Global manufacturing capacity could grow to about 6.5TWh in 2030, about double the demand projected under IEA's Steps scenario, if all committed projects are realised. This would also entail China's share of global manufacturing capacity weakening from 85pc in 2024 to two-thirds by 2030. LFP battery share rises Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries made up nearly half of the global EV battery market in 2024, said the IEA. Nearly all electric car LFP batteries sold in Europe or US were produced in China, which has a "de facto monopoly", said the IEA, with LFP becoming more attractive to European original equipment manufacturers looking to cut production costs. South Korean battery makers' market share in the EU fell to 60pc last year, down from 80pc in 2022, displaced by Chinese battery producers because the chemistry of LFP makes it more competitive, according to IEA. But top South Korean battery makers — LG Energy Solution , Samsung SDI , SK On — have all unveiled plans to mass produce EV LFP batteries over the coming years, looking to compete in the space. Japanese battery makers meanwhile saw their US market share fall to around 48pc, eroded by South Korea. South Korea took up 35pc of US market share last year, up from 20pc in 2022. Japanese domestic LFP development is also facing challenges, with Japanese carmaker Nissan recently cancelling a LFP plant in Kyushu as it goes through a restructure. LFP's penetration in the southeast Asia, Brazil and India markets is rising even quicker, with LFP battery electric car shares surpassing 50pc in each of the countries in 2024, according to the report. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Grids key to boosting SE Asia’s renewable power: Ember


15/05/25
News
15/05/25

Grids key to boosting SE Asia’s renewable power: Ember

Singapore, 15 May (Argus) — Up to 30GW of solar and wind power could be unlocked along planned grid routes in southeast Asia, which would help meet growing power demand in the region, according to a report released today by think-tank Ember. The Asean group of nations is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels, but solar and wind power are expected to constitute 23pc of the energy mix by 2030, up from 4pc currently, according to Ember. Asean as a region targets a 51GW increase in solar, and a 109GW increase in wind, hydro, geothermal and bioenergy combined by 2040. Electricity demand is rising in the region, because of economic growth as well as greater demand from data centres and transport electrification. Expanding and modernising the region's grid infrastructure would help to allow for the development of more clean energy, improve system flexibility and support regional power sharing. Up to 24GW of potential solar power and 5.6GW of wind power are situated in Indonesia's Riau islands and Sumatra, Malaysia's Sarawak, Cambodia and Brunei, where there are existing and planned grid projects. But the electricity generated from these projects needs transmission lines to be transported to demand centres. Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand collectively plan to add 45,078km of transmission lines between 2023-30. But this is slightly less than half of IEA's projections that indicate southeast Asia needs to expand transmission lines by 100,000km between 2021-30 to meet its clean energy targets. Regional variance There is significant disparity between Asean countries in their clean energy potential, with some having abundant wind and solar capacity, and others having hydropower and geothermal resources. These resources also tend to be subject to seasonal variations. Regional grid interconnection is hence "key to using these resources in combination, boosting renewables use and economic growth" states the report. The Asean Power Grid has seen some progress through the Lao PDR-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore (LTMS-PIP) project and the Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines Power Integration Project (BIMP-PIP). But grid development plans still vary significantly across the region. Only Cambodia, Malaysia and Singapore have signed the UN's Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge, which aims to deploy 1,500GW of energy storage and 25mn km of grid infrastructure globally by 2030. Additionally, investment required to expand electricity grids, including regional interconnections, could reach $22bn/yr by 2035, the IEA said. Asean's clean energy future hence depends on cross-border data sharing, addressing infrastructure requirements, momentum in policymaking for regional co-operation, and aligning investments with future energy demand, says Ember. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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New Zealand approves rules to raise jet fuel storage


15/05/25
News
15/05/25

New Zealand approves rules to raise jet fuel storage

Sydney, 15 May (Argus) — New Zealand has approved regulations to increase jet fuel storage in or around Auckland Airport before November next year to stop fuel supply disruptions. The regulations approved by New Zealand's government mean that fuel companies have until 1 November 2026 to invest in sufficient fuel storage, allowing them to have 10 days' worth of cover at 80pc operations , a measure introduced in a 2019 inquiry. New Zealand imported an average of around 22,000 b/d of jet fuel in the three months to 12 May, according to trade analytics platform Kpler data. Fuel companies have also agreed to invest in a new storage tank near Auckland Airport, according to New Zealand's associate energy minister Shane Jones. Auckland Airport had a pipeline rupture in 2017 that impacted almost 300 flights and resulted in an inquiry in 2019. The recommendation from the inquiry has not been met by fuel companies, said Jones, leaving New Zealand at risk of fuel supply disruptions. The government also updated the rules regarding fuel companies giving government visibility on the amount of jet fuel they hold near Auckland Airport. Jet fuel importers in Australia must have a baseline stock level of 27 days since July 2024, up from 24 days previously. By Susannah Cornford Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IEA sees slightly better oil demand outlook


15/05/25
News
15/05/25

IEA sees slightly better oil demand outlook

London, 15 May (Argus) — The IEA has nudged up its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and 2026, citing better macroeconomic forecasts and the effects of lower oil prices. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), published today, the Paris-based watchdog raised its projected increase in oil consumption by 20,000 b/d to 740,000 b/d in 2025, bringing overall demand to 103.9mn b/d. It increased its oil demand growth forecast for 2026 by 70,000 b/d to 760,000 b/d. In its previous OMR the IEA cut its oil demand forecasts for 2025 by 310,000 b/d after the US' announcement of an array of import levies in April. But the IEA said today the tariff supply shock appeared less severe than initially implied, pointing to subsequent US trade arrangements with the UK and China. US talks with other countries continue. "Subsequent pauses, concessions, exemptions and negotiations are likely to attenuate the levies' permanence and economic impact," the IEA said. But it said policy uncertainty continued to weigh on consumer and business sentiment, and it sees oil consumption growth slowing to 650,000 b/d between now until the end of 2025, from 990,000 b/d in the first quarter of the year. Its demand growth forecast for 2025 is 320,000 b/d lower than at the start of the year. The IEA increased its global oil supply growth forecast by 380,000 b/d to 1.61mn b/d in 2025, with almost all the rise accounted for by the Saudi-led unwinding of Opec+ cuts. It nudged its oil supply growth forecast for 2026 up by 10,000 b/d to 960,000 b/d. Eight Opec+ members earlier this month agreed to continue accelerating the pace of their planned unwinding of 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts for June. The IEA again revised down its supply growth forecasts for the US, mainly because of the effects of lower oil prices on US shale producers. It downgraded US growth by 50,000 b/d to 440,000 b/d for 2025 and by 100,000 b/d to 180,000 b/d for 2026, and said US tight oil production in 2026 would contract on an annual basis for the first time since 2020. The IEA said sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela are a key uncertainty in its forecasts. It noted that Russian crude supply grew by 170,000 b/d in April as crude prices fell below the G7 $60/bl price cap. The IEA's balances show supply exceeding demand by 730,000 b/d in 2025 and by 930,000 b/d in 2026. It said global observed stocks rose by 25.1mn bl in March, with preliminary data showing a further rise in April. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Refinery maintenance to limit Bahrain's bitumen exports


15/05/25
News
15/05/25

Refinery maintenance to limit Bahrain's bitumen exports

Mumbai, 15 May (Argus) — Bitumen export supply from Bahrain state-controlled refiner Bapco's 267,000 b/d Sitra refinery is expected to fall in May-June because of upcoming planned maintenance work and subsequent upgrading work at the plant, international bitumen traders and importers told Argus . The planned maintenance is scheduled to start around the end of May and will limit bitumen output as a vacuum distillation unit (VDU) will be taken off line, market participants close to the refinery said, but further details on the turnaround was unavailable. Some international traders and importers told Argus that Bapco will not offer waterborne cargoes during the turnaround, which is expected to last through June, and available inventories will be reserved for domestic consumption. Listed seaborne bitumen prices are at $370/t fob Sitra, unchanged since mid-April. Earlier this month, the 3,394 deadweight tonne Sidra Al Wakra vessel loaded a 3,100t cargo from Sitra for discharge in Qatar, shiptracking data from global trade and analytics firm Kpler show. The same vessel is scheduled to load a similar-sized cargo in the coming week, the data showed, but it was unclear if this would be the last bitumen tanker loading schedule ahead of the turnaround. Import demand for Bahraini cargoes has been lacklustre since 2024 because of competitive offers from neighbouring Iran, and only those with special requirements were enquiring for Bahraini cargoes. Import demand was mostly from Qatar, the UAE, and South Africa's Durban. The weekly fob Iran bulk price was assessed by Argus at $342.50/t on 9 May, at a discount of $27.50/t to Bahrain's listed seaborne prices. The Argus -assessed fob Iran bulk prices were at a discount of $109.90/t on average to Bahrain's listed seaborne prices in 2024. The discounts widened to as high as $201/t at the end of May last year. Meanwhile, the Sitra refinery is undergoing upgrading as part of the $7bn flagship Bapco Modernisation Project (BMP), which will increase the refinery's capacity to 380,000 b/d from 267,000 b/d. The project was inaugurated towards the end of last year and currently the refinery is likely starting up secondary units, but further details on the progress of this were not available. The upgraded refinery will primarily increase output of middle distillates, indicating that output of heavier products such as bitumen will be reduced, especially with the start-up of the secondary units. By Sathya Narayanan, Ieva Paldaviciute and Keyvan Hedvat Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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