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Viewpoint: EU, UK mandates will drive global SAF demand
Viewpoint: EU, UK mandates will drive global SAF demand
London, 20 December (Argus) — Europe will be a primary consumption hub for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in 2025, driven by EU and UK mandates that come into effect in January. The mandates could push European SAF demand above 1.5mn t next year, according to Argus Consulting estimates. There should be more than enough global SAF supply to meet mandated demand in Europe in the early stages of obligations. If all announced projects are completed on time, global capacity could surpass 10mn t/yr in 2025, according to Argus Consulting, with hydrotreated esters and fatty acids synthetic paraffinic kerosene (HEFA-SPK) still the dominant SAF production pathway. But several projects have been hit with delays in the past, and some European majors have scaled back or paused their capacity plans. Actual production is likely to be far lower than nameplate capacity, with the International Air Transport Association (Iata) forecasting global output of 2.1mn t next year . European suppliers may also opt to maximise hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) production over HEFA-SPK. In most HEFA-SPK plants, the production process relies on first hydrotreating vegetable oils and fats, a process aligned with standard HVO production. Renewable diesel demand should increase with higher mandates for renewables in road transport and changes to German and Dutch carryover rules on renewable fuel tickets next year. At the same time, European HVO imports face barriers. Definitive EU anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on Chinese biodiesel and HVO are expected to be imposed by February . And anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties are in place on HVO and biodiesel of US and Canadian origin . SAF is excluded from ADDs on Chinese biofuels. SAF supply has grown at a faster pace than demand this year, pushing the northwest European HEFA-SPK premium to jet fuel to record lows . The European benchmark HEFA-SPK fob ARA range assessment averaged around $2,203/t over 1 January-12 December, down from around $3,016/t in the same period last year. Ready, set, mandate Fuel suppliers will need to incorporate a 2pc share of SAF in their annual EU jet fuel deliveries from next year, with the share rising to 70pc by 2050. Synthetic aviation fuels, such as e-kerosine and hydrogen, must reach a total share of 1.2pc from 2030, rising to 35pc in 2050. The UK's mandate also requires aviation fuel suppliers to hit a 2pc SAF share in 2025, increasing linearly to reach 22pc in 2040. A UK obligation for power-to-liquid SAF will be introduced from 2028 at 0.2pc of total jet fuel demand, rising to 3.5pc in 2040. Separately, London's Heathrow airport aims to increase the share of SAF used to 3pc in 2025 as part of an incentive scheme that helps airlines cover extra costs. Beyond Europe Progress to introduce SAF blending obligations or legislate consumption targets is slower outside of Europe. In China, a pilot programme was launched earlier this year to support domestic SAF uptake. A consumption target of 50,000t was set in the country's five-year plan for 2021-25. Other initiatives in the Asia-Pacific region include South Korea's plan to require all international flights departing from its airports to use a mix of 1pc SAF from 2027 and Singapore's 1pc SAF target by 2026 for flights departing the country. Indonesia plans to require 1pc SAF from 2027, while Malaysia and Hong Kong are also expected to set targets. In the US, the level of priority to be given to renewable aviation fuels is less clear following Donald Trump's election victory. Guidance around a new producers' tax credit, set to come into effect next year, is still pending . The growth of the US SAF market has so far been driven mainly by federal and state financial incentives. By Giulia Squadrin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump backs new deal to avoid shutdown: Update
Trump backs new deal to avoid shutdown: Update
Adds updates throughout Washington, 19 December (Argus) — US president-elect Donald Trump is offering his support for a rewritten spending bill that would avoid a government shutdown but leave out a provision authorizing year-round 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15) sales. The bill — which Republicans rewrote today after Trump attacked an earlier bipartisan agreement — would avoid a government shutdown starting Saturday, deliver agricultural aid and provide disaster relief. Trump said the bill was a "very good deal" that would also include a two-year suspension of the "very unnecessary" ceiling on federal debt, until 30 January 2027. "All Republicans, and even the Democrats, should do what is best for our Country, and vote 'YES' for this Bill, TONIGHT!" Trump wrote in a social media post. Passing the bill would require support from Democrats, who are still reeling after Trump and his allies — including Tesla chief executive Elon Musk — upended a spending deal they had spent weeks negotiating with US House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana). Democrats have not yet said if they would vote against the new agreement. "We are prepared to move forward with the bipartisan agreement that we thought was negotiated in good faith with House Republicans," House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) said earlier today. That earlier deal would have kept the government funded through 14 March, in addition to providing a one-year extension to the farm bill, $100bn in disaster relief and $10bn in aid for farmers. The bill would also provide a waiver that would avoid a looming ban on summertime sales of E15 across much of the US. Ethanol industry officials said they would urge lawmakers to vote against any package without the E15 provision. "Pulling E15 out of the bill makes absolutely no sense and is an insult to America's farmers and renewable fuel producers," Renewable Fuels Association chief executive Geoff Cooper said. If no agreement is reached by Friday at 11:59pm ET, federal agencies would have to furlough millions of workers and curtail services, although some agencies are able to continue operations in the event of a short-term funding lapse. Air travel is unlikely to face immediate interruptions because key federal workers are considered "essential," but some work on permits, agricultural and import data, and regulations could be curtailed. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has funding to get through a "short-term" shutdown but could be affected by a longer shutdown, chairman Willie Phillips said. The US Department of Energy expects "no disruptions" if funding lapses for 1-5 days, according to its shutdown plan. The US Environmental Protection Agency would furlough about 90pc of its nearly 17,000 staff in the event of a shutdown, according to a plan it updated earlier this year. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US Congress passes waterways bill
US Congress passes waterways bill
Houston, 19 December (Argus) — The US Senate has passed a bipartisan waterways infrastructure bill, providing a framework for further investment in the country's waterways system. The waterways bill, also known as the Water Resources and Development Act (WRDA), was approved by the Senate in a 97-1 vote on 18 December after clearing the US House of Representatives on 10 December. The WRDA's next stop is the desk of President Joe Biden, who is expected to sign the bill. The WRDA has been passed every two years, authorizing the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) to undertake waterways infrastructure and navigation projects. Funding for individual projects must still be approved by Congress. Several agriculture-based groups voiced their support for the bill, saying it will improve transit for agricultural products on US waterways. The bill also shifts the funding of waterways projects to 75pc from the federal government and 25pc from the Inland Waterways Trust Fund instead of the previous 65-35pc split. "Increasing the general fund portion of the cost-share structure will promote much needed investment for inland navigation projects, as well as provide confidence to the industry that much needed maintenance and modernization of our inland waterway system will happen," Fertilizer Institute president Corey Rosenbusch said. The bill includes a provision to assist with the damaged Wilson Lock along the Tennessee River in Alabama. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Politics, economy key to bitumen recovery
Viewpoint: Politics, economy key to bitumen recovery
London, 19 December (Argus) — Political change and uncertainty will come to dominate the European bitumen market more than usual in 2025, while demand could decline further than it did in 2024. Market participants are trying to pin down the bottom of the market for bitumen demand, after falling for several years in most of Europe. And support for demand seems far from certain in 2025 given spiralling public debt, political uncertainty and a lack of funding for road maintenance and projects in most European countries. But there could be some positive economic news as interest rates start to fall and inflation returns to more normal levels, while the outlook for oil prices in 2025 is less bullish than previously with plentiful supply forecast. Increased supply and lower crude prices would tend to pressure lower bitumen prices, which could support consumption, given road budgets can be stretched further. Politics seems more unpredictable than ever, with various elections and other changes expected in 2025, often shifting to the right or populist wing in Europe. The necessity of road maintenance and project work to support economies is plain to see for governments, but there is uncertainty on the priority they will be given by some new political forces emerging. Bitumen production is still going to be plentiful in the new year, despite some refinery closures and problems in the past year and more. Issues at both Greek and Turkish refineries, which are powerhouses for Mediterranean bitumen exports, will not have a major impact given the weaker demand in much of north Africa and the lack of available arbitrage routes. Outlets to the US and east of Suez are closed at present and show little sign of re-emerging strongly in the period ahead. Spring maintenance, particularly a February to May shutdown at Algerian Sonatrach's 198,000 b/d Augusta refinery in Sicily, will also limit supply just when demand starts to seasonally rise. In the last viewpoint Argus expected a weaker year for 2024 demand, while also looking at pricing and how differentials to high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could go negative. As winter approaches at the end of 2024 this has happened in the north of Europe and fob cargo discounts have been seen in the eastern Mediterranean all year. Bitumen market fundamentals have drifted further away from those of crude and HSFO in the last year, although a relationship still exists with HSFO maintaining a persistent standing as a price marker for inland bitumen markets for weekly or monthly calculations and for export waterborne prices as the basis with a differential. But Argus expected that traders would seek more arbitrage movements from the European Mediterranean, and this did not come to fruition in 2024, with little seen moving to the US and even less to the Asia-Pacific region. There is not much indication this will change in 2025 with lower prices and plentiful supply in Asia and US supply points. Poorer refining margins may have an impact in 2025 after the strength post-Covid, which will put more renewed pressure on older and simpler refiners to close. These facilities are more likely to produce bitumen. Instead traders will rely on large new ships to feed supply and move bitumen longer distances, a trend already well underway with a number of new ships entering service. Freight costs should stay at elevated levels given the ETS scheme comes into fuller effect in 2025 after first being implemented in 2024. The inclusion of shipping in this EU scheme will oblige shipowners and charterers of vessels from 5,000 gross tonnes to purchase carbon allowances, rising from 40pc of carbon emissions in 2024, to 70pc in 2025, before 100pc in 2026. From uncertainty can come opportunity and with the worst of the economic outlook now behind us then perhaps 2025 can be the beginning of the end in the downtrend for bitumen demand and we start to see vital road maintenance work and infrastructure projects get the funding they need. By Jonathan Weston Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
