Climate policy and UN Cop meetings
Overview
Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.
Follow the key developments in energy transition field with our Net zero page and keep up to date with ongoing coverage of these issues by following Argus Media on LinkedIn and on X.
News
EU commission expects CO2 tweak for cars soon
EU commission expects CO2 tweak for cars soon
Brussels, 31 March (Argus) — The European commission expects to "very soon" release a legal proposal for a limited revision of the bloc's 2019 regulation setting CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (LCVs). A draft proposal circulating does not change the substance of the 2019 rules but specifies a three-year compliance period (2025-2027) used to calculate potential excess emissions premiums. And the 29-page legal proposal does not alter the bloc's 2030 emissions reduction target to reduce economy-wide CO2 emissions by 55pc, compared to 1990. Nor does it lower the overall CO2 emission standards, the commission said. If agreed by the European Parliament and EU member states, the "one-off" three-year compliance period over 2025-2027, instead of an annual assessment, would provide additional flexibility for vehicles manufacturers, while maintaining investor certainty and predictability, the commission added. The 2019 regulation requires annual EU fleet-wide average CO2 emissions from new cars and new vans to be reduced in five-year intervals. For each year in 2025–2029, a target reduction of 15pc, compared with 2021 values, would normally be applied. Without any legal change approved by parliament and EU states, manufacturers exceeding their specific emissions targets, would have to pay excess emission premiums of €95 per g/km for each new vehicle registered. The commission is also "accelerating" work on a review that will commence "in good time this year", said the commission's energy and climate spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen. But she had "nothing new" on whether compliant fuels could be expanded beyond e-fuels to include other low-carbon and zero-carbon, such as biofuels. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
World Bank loans Peru $500mn for climate adaptation
World Bank loans Peru $500mn for climate adaptation
Lima, 31 March (Argus) — The World Bank loaned Peru $500mn to fund public climate adaptation programs, including investments for developing its burgeoning renewable energy sector, distributed generation and electric mobility. This new funding, requested by Peru's government and approved by the World Bank, aims to build on reforms to strengthen Peru's climate resilience and adaptation. Peru is considered among the countries most vulnerable to disasters driven by climate change, including earthquakes, flash floods, landslides and glacier melting. The loan will go toward funding energy transitions in key sectors like electricity and transportation, as well as developing sustainable cities and clean technologies, the World Bank said. It is also expected to strengthen disaster risk management through a national coalition of government agencies tasked with prevention and mitigation of disasters, including climate-related ones. These initiatives could include implementing a geo-referenced information system that helps in early mitigation and decision-making. Peru has had a sluggish transition in its renewables sector, but last year wind power production grew by 66pc and solar by 32pc over the year prior. In January, overall renewable power production grew by 16pc over the same month last year, with hydroelectricity leading most of that growth. Peru's electricity grid is mostly powered by natural gas — about 51pc thermoelectricity, 38pc hydropower, 7pc wind and 3pc solar electricity. Peru's congress passed a new electricity law in January, easing the path for renewable energy companies to compete for public electricity contracts and potentially reduce costs. Though the law has not yet been implemented, it faced stiff opposition from Peru's oil and gas industry which argued it gave unfair favoritism to renewable companies. By Bianca Padró Ocasio Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Singapore, Vietnam eye greater low-carbon power trade
Singapore, Vietnam eye greater low-carbon power trade
Singapore, 28 March (Argus) — Singapore and Vietnam have signed a letter of intent (LOI) to enhance collaboration on cross-border electricity trade for the Asean power grid. Under the LOI, the countries will explore raising the targeted capacity of low-carbon electricity imports from Vietnam to Singapore to around 2GW by 2035, announced Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry on 26 March. This builds on the previous conditional approval that was granted by Singapore's Energy Market Authority to Sembcorp Utilities in October 2023 to import 1.2GW of low-carbon electricity from Vietnam. The electricity will be transmitted from Vietnam to Singapore via new sub-sea cables of around 1,000km. The Vietnam and Singapore governments will continue to engage interested companies that have credible and commercially viable proposals, said MTI. "This LOI reflects our enhanced level of ambition to support not just cross-border electricity trading between our two countries, but the broader development of a sustainable, inclusive and resilient Asean power grid," said Singapore's second minister for trade and industry Tan See Leng. Singapore aims to import up to 6GW of low-carbon electricity by 2035 , and has signed supply agreements with Malaysia , as well as granted conditional approvals to projects in Indonesia. There have been steps toward the development of the long-awaited Asean power grid, which once established, could help the region source and share electricity regionally. The Lao PDR-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore power integration project (LTMS-PIP) will be enhanced under its second phase to double the capacity of electricity traded from 100MW to a maximum of 200MW, the EMA announced in September last year. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s Boral set to stay below emissions baseline
Australia’s Boral set to stay below emissions baseline
Sydney, 28 March (Argus) — Australian building materials firm Boral expects to remain below its emissions baseline under the safeguard mechanism, it said today as it announced further decarbonisation investments for its flagship cement manufacturing operations. Boral is "on track" to remain below the baseline safeguard mechanism requirements, chief executive officer Vik Bansal said on 28 March. This is because of the new kiln feed optimisation project and previous investments in decarbonisation projects, he noted. Boral's Berrima cement plant in New South Wales (NSW) state will invest in a new cement kiln infrastructure project that will reduce the facility's scope 1 emissions by up to 100,000 t/yr of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) from 2028, it said on 28 March. The project was awarded A$24.5mn ($15.4mn) under the Australian federal government's A$1.9bn Powering the Regions Fund (PRF). Grants will come from the PRF's A$600mn Safeguard Transformation Stream, aimed at decarbonisation projects at heavy industry facilities covered under the safeguard mechanism. The Berrima plant — Boral's only facility under the mechanism — reported 979,872t of CO2e in the July 2022-June 2023 compliance year, below its baseline of 1.075mn t of CO2e. The facility will be eligible to receive safeguard mechanism credits (SMCs) from the July 2023-June 2024 year onwards for any emissions below the baseline. The company also upgraded its carbon-reduction technology at Berrima last year, reducing fuel-based emissions through the use of alternative fuels at the kiln. The new kiln feed optimisation project will lead to a reduction in the so-called process emissions — the largest and hardest-to-abate emissions source in cement manufacturing. Approximately 35pc of Berrima's scope 1 emissions originate from fuel combustion, while the remaining 65pc are process emissions, according to the company. Australia's Clean Energy Regulator (CER) will publish 2023-24 safeguard data by 15 April . By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Analysis
Lula visits Japan to talk ethanol, Cop 30, beef
Lula visits Japan to talk ethanol, Cop 30, beef
Sao Paulo, 25 March (Argus) — Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva traveled to Japan on Tuesday in search of energy transition agreements and new market opportunities to improve trade relations between the countries. Bilateral Japan-Brazil trade fell to around $11bn in 2024, down from $17bn in 2011, the Brazilian government said. Brazil exported $730mn in goods to Japan in January-February, while importing $995mn from the Asian country in the period, according to Brazil trade ministry data. Exports dropped by almost 13.5pc from a year before in the two-month period, while imports grew by nearly 25pc. "Firstly, we have [a shortfall] to turn around," Lula said. Brazil will also ask Japan to join its growth acceleration plan . He is accompanied by 11 ministers and four members of congress, including senate president Davi Alcolumbre and lower house president Hugo Motta. Ethanol market Brazil aims to sell more ethanol to Japan, as the Asian country expects to increase its ethanol blend to 10pc from 3pc by 2030. "If Japan blends 10pc of ethanol into gasoline, it will be an extraordinary step not only for us to export to them but for them to be able to produce in Brazil," Lula said. Japan received 3.4pc of Brazil's ethanol exports in 2024, according to Brazil's development and trade ministry. Cop 30 and energy transition Lula's visit also seeks to attract investment in renewable energy, forest revamps and new donations to the Amazon Fund, as well as a "strong commitment" from Japan at the Cop 30 summit, to be held in Brazil later this year. Brazil aims to export clean fuels to generate power to Japan, as power imports account for more than 80pc of all Japanese power demand and "a large share of it comes from fossil sources," according to the Brazilian foreign relations ministry's Asia and Pacific secretary Eduardo Saboia. Brazilian and Japanese companies announced earlier this year plans to produce biomethane in Brazil . The renewable fuel would supply both countries. Brazil and Japan should also sign a deal to help recover the Cerrado biome, which is the second largest biome in Brazil and the second most endangered. It comprises of savanah grasslands and forest and makes up about 25pc of the nation's territory. The Cerrado lost 9.7mn hectares to wildfires in 2024, up by almost 92pc from 2023, according to environmental network MapBiomas' fire monitor researching program. Deforestation is one of Brazil's flagship issues for Cop 30 this year. The country has been pushing for forest protection and recovery initiatives as most of Brazil's past Cop pledges cannot be met with only its remaining forests. Japan and Brazil should talk about the Amazon Fund as well because Brazil "wants more", Saboia said. Japan was the first Asian country to donate to the fund with $14mn, which Saboia said was "too little." Where's the beef? Lula is also targeting opening Japan's beef market to Brazilian exports, as the Asian country imports over 70pc of all its beef. Lula met with members of the beef exporters association Abiec in his first day in Japan to discuss the matter. The bulk of Japan's beef imports — 80pc — come from the US, the Brazilian government said. Brazil does not currently export beef to Japan. "Brazil has the logistic capacity to increase exports and double beef exports every four years," transport ministry Renan Filho said. Brazil has been trying to enter Japan's beef market for over two decades. This time, Lula expects to achieve a technical visit from Japan to inspect Brazil's beef producing conditions as a first step toward accessing the Japanese market. Lula will depart to Vietnam on 28 March to debate a plan to turn the country into one of Brazil's strategic partners. Only Indonesia is considered a Brazil strategic partner in southeast Asia. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Aid cuts suggest a rocky period for climate finance
Aid cuts suggest a rocky period for climate finance
Western countries' potential retreat may open the field wider for countries such as China, writes Georgia Gratton London, 7 March (Argus) — A renewed focus on defence spending in Europe and swingeing aid cuts from major western donors create a gloomy outlook for international climate finance. It has been less than four months since developed countries settled a deal at the UN Cop 29 climate summit to ramp up climate finance to developing countries to $300bn/yr by 2035 — the highest ever agreed. Climate finance is unlikely to take centre stage at this year's Cop 30 in Brazil in November, but the topic underpins all climate talks and plays a large role in the speed at which the global energy transition proceeds. There have been steady, if modest, increases in climate finance in recent years. Developed countries delivered $115.9bn in climate finance to developing nations in 2022, the most recent OECD data show. This was a rise of just under a third on the year, and the first time developed countries hit their target of providing $100bn/yr in climate finance over 2020-25. But recently announced and expected cuts to aid are likely to slow progress. Official development aid typically encompasses climate finance. US president Donald Trump in January announced a pause to all US foreign aid through the country's international development agency, USAID, while UK prime minister Keir Starmer said last month that he would fund a rise in UK defence spending entirely through cuts to the country's aid budget from 2027. Starmer said the UK would continue to provide climate finance, as well as aid in other areas, but former UK international development minister Anneliese Dodds — who resigned over the cuts — said that it would be "impossible to maintain these priorities". Other European leaders are also focused on rapidly expanding defence spending — notably Germany's incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz — although there is no sign as yet that aid or climate finance will be diverted for this purpose. But both France and Sweden have indicated they will spend less on aid from this year, non-profit Donor Tracker says. The US, the UK, Germany, France and Sweden collectively provided $142.33bn in aid in 2023, OECD data show. Filling the finance gap Hitting the $300bn/yr climate finance goal by 2035 "is very much in reach", despite the challenging geopolitical landscape, research organisation World Resources Institute (WRI) says. The majority of climate finance is public — bilateral finance and funding from institutions such as multilateral development banks (MDBs). There are several options to ensure that financing from public institutions rises, WRI says. If countries pay in more capital to MDBs, it will increase the base amount against which they can lend. "While such increases may be unlikely today with current political dynamics, they could feasibly happen before 2035," WRI says. But significant private investment would be needed to move beyond the $300bn/yr goal and towards the wider roadmap for $1.3 trillion/yr in climate finance by 2035, as agreed at Cop 29. The retreat of wealthy western countries from contributing aid and climate finance is likely to erode some of the soft power these countries hold. This will allow other actors to step in. China portrayed itself as a reliable leader on climate at Cop 29, including making new concessions in the language used to describe its climate finance contributions. And the UAE committed $30bn to a new climate fund during Cop 28, which it hosted in 2023. UN biodiversity talks, which reconvened last week, proved a bright spot, as countries agreed on a strategy to boost biodiversity finance to $200bn/yr by 2030. But Brazil is well aware of the fractured developed-developing country relationship at climate talks, and of the divide it must bridge at this year's Cop 30. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Execs divided on Trump effect on energy investment
Execs divided on Trump effect on energy investment
London, 10 February (Argus) — The energy sector's first big gathering of the year showed that its executives, policy makers and observers remain conflicted in their views about how US president Donald Trump's second term will affect it, following his flurry of pronouncements and executive orders since he was sworn into office. While some see a sharp reversal in attitude from Washington towards the previous administration's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), others hold out hope that, despite negative comments from Trump about certain types of renewable energy, he will eventually come to recognise that they deserve a place in the energy mix. Speaking on the first day of energy technology firm Baker Hughes' annual conferencein Florence, Italy, last week, Trump's former US energy secretary Dan Brouillette said that tearing up the IRA was not possible under the US system of government, as the president cannot "undo a federal statute at a stroke". "Executive orders do not apply to federal statutes," he said, adding that he thinks there will be more, not less, investment in renewable power under Trump. Brouillette noted that the US has been retiring firm base-load power faster than it has been able to add new generation capacity, and the country will be some 25-30GW short of electricity within a few years — approximately five times the capacity currently needed to power New York City's grid. "We are short on electrons. We are short on infrastructure. We are short on power," he said. While acknowledging that his erstwhile boss is not currently supportive of offshore wind and some other types of renewable power, Trump "understands clearly that we need more electrons. And, candidly, an electron, once it's created, doesn't know where it came from, whether it was created by a nuclear facility or a windmill". In contrast, investment bank RBC Capital Markets' head of global commodity strategy, Helima Croft, said at the conference that "the landscape in Washington has fundamentally shifted" with respect to the IRA since Trump returned to office.She pointed out that the first acts of former president Joe Biden's administration four years ago included taking the US back into the Paris Agreement and announcing a pause on new oil and gas leasing on federal land. The US is undergoing "an absolute inversion" of those moves, Croft said. "One of the first acts is to leave the Paris climate accords. We now have a pause on projects related to wind and solar on federal lands, while at the same time we're opening up drilling on federal lands for oil and gas. So you can't overstate the sea change in Washington," she said. Crunch time for low carbon And Croft is sceptical about the future for wind and solar energy in the US. There had been an expectation that much of the IRA would be future-proof as many Republican states are beneficiaries of renewable energy investments, but "everything we've seen so far in wind and solar would indicate that this is not a bulwark against some dismantling", she said. The question now is which low-carbon technologies have bipartisan appeal. Carbon capture, utilisation and storage, nuclear energy and geothermal energy have broad bipartisan support, according to Croft. Sharing the stage with Croft was commodities trading company Trafigura energy transition head Margaux Moore, who argued that the energy sector and industry more widely must come together now to decide on which energy technologies to invest in today, rather than wait for policy makers. An approach whereby industry invests limited sums in multiple low-carbon technologies to learn how they will mature is "becoming synonymous with inaction", Moore said. But investment decisions made today will have long-lasting consequences. "The choices we're making now are going to have an impact on what we see in 2050, right? We cannot afford to wait and see," Moore said. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ambition focus as nations to fail new GHG goal deadline
Ambition focus as nations to fail new GHG goal deadline
Edinburgh, 6 February (Argus) — Most countries and major emitters that are party to the Paris Agreement will fail to meet a 10 February deadline for sharing new climate plans. Climate policy observers have stressed that higher ambitions beat timeliness when it comes to new 2035 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cut targets, but challenges abound ahead of the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Brazil. Only 10 countries, including G20 members Brazil and the UK, have submitted new climate plans — or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — so far. Around 200 countries and jurisdictions such as the EU have signed the Paris agreement. They need to submit their 2035 targets to the UN climate body UNFCCC by February as part of the so-called ratchet mechanism, which requires them to review and revise plans every five years. "There have not been any signals that any major emitters will submit their NDCs before the deadline, but we may see a handful of smaller emitters trickling in," think-tank International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) energy policy advisor Natalie Jones said. Non-profit the World Resources Institute (WRI) associate Jamal Srouji expects around 20 countries to submit by the deadline. But most climate plans should come in the second half of this year, with the UN general assembly in September emerging as a new potential milestone followed by Cop 30 in Belem, Brazil. Countries missing their NDC deadline is not new. They were slow to submit plans in the previous 2020-21 round — although they were grappling with a pandemic — and after Cop 26, when it came to strengthening 2030 targets. Jones described the UNFCCC's non-enforceable February deadline as "arbitrary". "It is much more important to have good quality plans than NDCs handed in on a forced deadline, although of course there is no guarantee that the plans that will come later will be necessarily better," Jones said. Srouji concurred: "Higher ambitions from major countries are far more critical because we know that we are off track for meeting the Paris goals". US exit The US submitted its new NDC in December under then president Joe Biden, knowing that the new president Donald Trump would pull out of the Paris accord again. This will take effect on 27 January next year. It was important for the US to submit this NDC, Srouji said, as it will serve as "a guiding post" for what the country could achieve, at sub-national levels in particular. But the US' Paris exit could dampen momentum on global NDCs, with some fearing a spillover effect . Indonesia, which earlier signalled it would submit by February, is unlikely to do so now, after the country's climate envoy Hashim Djojohadikusumo expressed discontent. "If America does not want to comply with international agreements, why should Indonesia comply?" he asked. Argentina pulled its delegation from Cop 29 last year and may consider leaving the Paris agreement. Among other major emitters, Canada set a new 2035 climate goal in December. The country was planning to submit its new plan by February, but the resignation of prime minister Justin Trudeau and a new election due this year could put the country's climate ambitions at risk. All eyes will of course be on China, the world's largest emitter, and whether it pledges stronger targets. The country is unlikely to submit its new plan by the deadline, according to observers. Expectations are high, but "targets will likely fall short of achieving the 1.5°C goal, leaving much work to be done to accelerate emissions reduction," think tank Asia Society Policy Institute director Li Shuo said. China signalled at Cop 29 that its NDC will be "economy-wide" and "cover all greenhouse gases", while continuing to strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, without providing further details. "There is a big question mark, in the absence of US leadership, if will we see China along with the EU engaging and stepping up, or if will we see the country retreating like the US," IISD's Jones said. EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, who said the bloc's NDC will come in time for Cop 30, said that Europeans will need to show more leadership. But the EU's 2035 goal will be derived from its 2040 target and German MEP Peter Liese pointed to a deadlock in discussions . The European Commission has proposed a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of 90pc by 2040, from 1990 levels, which Poland said is "very difficult to accept". Challenges Cop 30 host Brazil, along with the UAE Cop 29 presidency, stuck to their promise of being early movers by submitting updated goals last year, although these were met with mixed reactions. Cop 29 host Azerbaijan did not submit a new NDC in Baku, with its president signalling challenges for some developing countries in establishing new plans. Some southeast Asian countries have highlighted challenges in providing new targets , such as the lack of common models between sectors, financing and economic growth. Chile said that it will submit an emissions reduction plan by the middle of this year, as a draft document is under consultation . There are many reasons for delays. "The UNFCCC timeline is not necessarily aligned with national decision-making processes and many developing countries face resource and capacity constraints," Srouji said, adding that parties are also expected to submit other documents such as adaptation plans and long term climate strategies. The IEA can provide support on national energy transition plans. The energy watchdog has recently supported Uganda and Vietnam on transition plans, and is in the early stages of transition advisory work with Colombia and Tanzania, it said. Colombia indicated that it will submit its NDC by June as the country seeks to address the "divisive issue" of fossil fuels, on which its economy is dependent. Mixed bag The climate plans submitted so far accounted for around 16pc of global emissions as of 5 February, including commitments from the UK and Brazil, according to WRI. IISD's Jones described the current NDCs as a "mixed bag", in terms of targets and the level of details, saying that the UK emerged as a leader with commitments on oil and gas licensing, while New Zealand has put forward a weak target and no plans. The UK's plan sets out the government's manifesto pledge to phase out sales of new cars "relying solely on internal combustion engines" by 2030, and notes that it will consult on issuing no new oil and gas licences to explore new fields. But none of the countries which posted new NDCs so far — apart from St Lucia — seem to have raised their 2030 targets, despite agreeing to "revisit and strengthen" them in the Cop 28's global stocktake (GST). How countries will respond to elements of GST — which also resulted in all parties agreeing to "transition away" from fossil fuels — will be a key issue to watch, especially after they failed to build on their commitments at Cop 29 in Baku. "While NDCs may show progress on the commitments of the Paris agreement and the commitments of a lot of countries on climate action, it is not clear what they will deliver in terms of the ability to keep 1.5°C in reach", Srouji said. "This is how Cop 30 comes into play, to make sure countries respond adequately and keep on track, he said. By Caroline Varin Countries GHG 2035 reduction targets Countries Headline 2035 target Baseline UAE Cutting GHG emissions by 47pc by 2035 2019 Brazil Cutting GHG emissions by 59-67pc by 2035 2005 US Cutting GHG emissions by 61-66pc by 2035 2005 Uruguay Cutting GHG emissions by 30pc by 2035 2020-22 Switzerland Cutting GHGemissions by 65pc by 2035 1990 UK Cutting GHG emissions by 81pc by 2035 1990 New Zealand Cutting GHG emissions by 51-55pc by 2035 2005 Andorra Cutting GHG emissions by 63pc by 2035 2005 Ecuador Cutting GHG emissions by 7pc by 2035 2010 St Lucia Cutting GHG emissions by 22pc in energy sector by 2035* 2010 Canada** Cutting GHG emissionsby 45-50pc by 2035 2005 Source countries' NDCs *conditional target **Canada only submitted its headline target, not its NDC Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Country focus
Argus related services
