Climate policy and UN Cop meetings
Overview
Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.
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News
UK marginally narrows sixth carbon budget shortfall
UK marginally narrows sixth carbon budget shortfall
London, 4 February (Argus) — The gap between the UK's projected greenhouse gas emissions and meeting the country's sixth carbon budget has narrowed by 42mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) since last year, latest government data show. Government projections now assume a shortfall in the UK's emissions cuts of 737mn t CO2e against its sixth carbon budget of 965mn t CO2e, which covers 2033-37. This is down from a projected shortfall of 779mn t CO2e in last year's assessment. The country is expected to meet its fourth (2023-27) and fifth (2028-32) carbon budgets comfortably, with projected headroom of 126mn t CO2e and 86mn t CO2e, respectively, against targets of 1.95bn t CO2e and 1.73bn t CO2e. This is up from surpluses of 104mn t CO2e and 83mn t CO2e in last year's projections. The estimates stem from a projected 25pc fall in UK emissions in 2023-50, calculated on the basis of policies implemented or close to being finalised as of June 2025. New policies included since last year's projections include the Warm Homes Local Grant, the third wave of the Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund, and collection and packaging reform policies affecting the waste sector. The new policies are projected to contribute 0.7mn t CO2e to emissions savings in the fourth budget, 9mn t CO2e in the fifth and 14mn t CO2e in the sixth. The sixth budget is the first to include emissions from UK international aviation and shipping, adding 24mn t CO2e to the 1990 base year emissions on which carbon budget calculations are based. The UK must set its seventh carbon budget, covering 2038-42, by June. It has a legally binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. The government has also updated projected average carbon prices under the UK emissions trading scheme (ETS), which it used as part of its new carbon budget calculations. The figures are not forecasts, but are designed for use for modelling purposes, and do not take into account any potential changes to the scope of the scheme or linkage to the EU ETS, negotiations on which continue. The government models four scenarios — one assuming decarbonisation in line with achieving net zero emissions by 2050; one assuming low fossil fuel prices and low economic growth; one assuming low fossil fuel prices and high economic growth; and one assuming "unobservable market factors" in the early years of the projections. These produce a range of £22-47/t CO2e in 2026, rising to £25-66/t CO2e in 2030, £74-178/t CO2e in 2040 and £167-298/t CO2e in 2050. The trajectories become steeper over time as carbon abatement options become more expensive, the government said. These have changed significantly from last year's ranges — £62-103/t CO2e in 2026, £50-107/t CO2e in 2030, £94-151/t CO2e in 2040 and £85-154/t CO2e in 2050 — because of adjustments to underlying business-as-usual emissions projections and corresponding marginal abatement cost curves, and assumptions relating to the power sector and interconnectors, the government said. By Victoria Hatherick UK ETS government price projections £/t CO2e Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU eyes maritime decarbonisation, industry strategy
EU eyes maritime decarbonisation, industry strategy
Brussels, 2 February (Argus) — The European Commission is expected to publish a maritime manufacturing industrial strategy on 18 February, a leaked draft of which underscores the need for "mechanisms" to earmark national emission revenues for maritime decarbonisation. Beyond funds from a projected €10bn/yr by 2030 in national revenues raised from shipping emissions under the EU emissions trading system (ETS), the commission will make available 20mn ETS allowances assigned to the bloc's innovation fund for demonstration and pre-deployment — worth approximately €1.6bn — earmarked to support maritime emissions reductions until 2030. Future innovation fund calls for proposals could focus on production and uptake of renewable and low-carbon fuels. The draft, which is expected to change before final publication, said a commission-led task-force will explore additional technical support and "match-making" tools to connect ports, shipping companies, shipyards, equipment manufacturers and fuel producers. The commission will also leverage public and private funding towards "made in EU" vessels, technologies and equipment, boosting construction of next-generation low and zero-carbon vessels. It promises a "robust" policy framework for nuclear power propulsion in commercial shipping and commits to mobilising €800mn for shipbuilding, retrofitting, shipping and blue tech by 2028. The draft further calls for boosting wind-assisted propulsion using the EU's sustainable finance taxonomy. The upcoming revision of EU public procurement law will introduce targeted non-price requirements, including sustainability, circularity and made in EU criteria. Export credits will also include specific provisions for zero and low-emission ships. The commission plans to allocate €160mn to finance a Zero Emission Waterborne Transport programme until 2027, with an additional €8mn allocated to fuel cells. Officials will "streamline" existing monitoring, reporting and verification requirements under the EU ETS and the FuelEU Maritime regulation , which sets greenhouse gas intensity cuts for marine fuels used in ships over 5,000 gross tonnage, starting at 2pc in 2025 and reaching 80pc by 2050, against a 2020 baseline. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Slow UN carbon market advance on removals
Slow UN carbon market advance on removals
Berlin, 2 February (Argus) — The emerging UN carbon market under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, Pacm, saw slow progress last week on draft rules for carbon removals accounting, as experts tasked with working on new Pacm methodologies convened at the UN climate arm's headquarters in Bonn, Germany. The panel made some decisions on the so-called reversal assessment tool, which aims to determine the number of Pacm credits to contribute to the market's reversal risk buffer account, acting as a form of insurance for removal projects. The tool will help calculate individual risk factors, combined risks and the reduction in reversal risk factors, based on any remediation measures implemented by activity proponents. A buffer factor, expressed as a percentage of credited carbon, would then be calculated, depending on the choices made by project proponents. The higher the percentage, the more credits must be set aside for an activity. The panel will also determine specific activity risks, with an initial focus on forest carbon storage, geological carbon storage and biochar. These are not only the most prevalent removal activities in the carbon market, but also dominate those transitioning from Pacm's precursor, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The panel and the Article 6.4 supervisory body were tasked by countries at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Brazil in November with prioritising CDM transitions . The panel will consider other types of removal activities at a later stage. More progress was made last week on the draft rules for renewable electricity generation, on which the panel released a draft methodology for supervisory body approval. It would become the second approved Pacm methodology, if adopted. The first methodology for generating carbon credits, on flaring or use of landfill gas, is regarded as substantially stricter than its CDM predecessor. Pacm's downward adjustment factor ensures that baseline emissions decline more significantly over time than under the CDM. South Korea-based carbon project developer Ecoeye said under the Pacm landfill gas methodology, flaring-only projects carried out in host countries outside least developed countries are likely to experience a 52–76pc reduction in credited emission reductions, compared with CDM-based estimates, over a five-year period, while for electricity generation and heat production it projects a 34–42pc reduction. The potential third Pacm methodology to be adopted, on clean cooking, considers new submissions while carrying over some elements from an existing CDM methodology. Another methodology under consideration, on nitrous oxide abatement from nitric acid production, might also see a draft proposal at the next expert panel meeting in March. Six new Pacm methodologies in total are under consideration. The latest entry is on fertiliser production with renewables-based ammonia, for which a call for public input closed on 27 January. The panel is considering merging this methodology — the development of which was financed by the Germany-supported International Hydrogen Ramp-Up Programme — with another for ammonia production through electrolysis. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
France lagging on renewables directive: commission
France lagging on renewables directive: commission
London, 2 February (Argus) — France has still not fully transposed the renewable energy directive (RED III) into national law, the European commission has found, and now has two months to complete transposition before the commission may begin court proceedings. RED III entered into force in November 2023, and had to be transposed into national law by 1 July 2024. It includes a Europe-wide target for renewable sources to make up 42.5pc of final energy consumption by 2030, as well as provisions on accelerating permitting for renewables and grid infrastructure, imposing time limits on approvals and presumptions of public interest. France received a formal notice of failure to fully transpose the directive in September 2024, along with 25 other member states. It was then in February last year one of eight states to receive a reasoned opinion from the commission for failing to show that its transposition measures achieved the objectives of the directive, before receiving a further reasoned opinion last week. The commission could refer France to the court of justice of the European Union, and request financial sanctions be imposed, it said. Renewable energy made up 22.4pc of France's final energy consumption in 2023, slightly below the EU-27 average of 24.6pc. The country's 2019 climate law set a target of 33pc by 2030. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Analysis
EV flip-flopping has hampered the west: WEF
EV flip-flopping has hampered the west: WEF
London, 21 January (Argus) — Inconsistent policies and political turmoil have hampered western progress on electric vehicles (EVs), while China's longer-term stable approach has benefited industry winners such as BYD, speakers at a World Economic Forum (WEF) panel in Davos, Switzerland, said on Tuesday. China's lead in EVs is less about a single technological breakthrough and more about policy consistency. That was the clear message from executives and policymakers at the WEF panel on the global EV race, where China's long-term industrial alignment was repeatedly contrasted with stop-start policymaking in the US and Europe. Speaking early in the discussion, BYD executive vice-president Stella Li said China's EV successes "start from the government policy", arguing that Beijing's approach has been defined by consistency rather than constant revision. "In the past 20 years they never changed, but some countries went back and forth, and this will confuse manufacturing," Li said. "Once the government gives a very clear line, then manufacturing goes to work on the competition." This clarity, she argued, allowed companies to commit capital, concentrate on research and development and scale production without hedging against political reversals, something she suggested remains a structural disadvantage for western automakers. Industrial reality versus political instability Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, whose state accounts for more than a fifth of US car production, echoed this assessment from a US perspective, saying policy uncertainty has slowed decision-making across the industry. "The back and forth policies at the national level have made it more difficult for industry to throw all in," Whitmer said, adding that long-term investments were increasingly being delayed. "Chaos is really bad for business." The result, she added, is that manufacturers are forced to pursue multiple drivetrain strategies simultaneously, rather than committing fully to electrification. Former General Motors chief economist Elaine Buckberg said that a disconnect between political timeframes and industrial reality is critical. Automakers, she noted, plan vehicles years in advance, while democracy can change government policy over smaller time periods. "The typical planning process is five years before a vehicle comes into market, and you're planning to keep it there for six years," Buckberg said. "Keeping those incentives stable is really powerful." Alternatively, shifting incentives and short-term subsidies can distort demand. Li warned that poorly designed support schemes risk delaying purchases altogether. "Sometimes subsidies are more like a drug," she said. "Consumers just wait and the market stops. That is not sustainable." As competition between the US, China and Europe intensifies, the panel's message was that in the EV race, consistency may matter more than speed. By Thomas Kavanagh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Fossil fuels shift talks to continue outside Cop
Fossil fuels shift talks to continue outside Cop
Developed countries struggled to lead, and oil producers pushed back, but a roadmap may emerge away from Cop, write Caroline Varin and Georgia Gratton Edinburgh, 28 November (Argus) — The UN climate Cop 30 summit in Belem, Brazil, ended last week without an agreement to establish a roadmap on how to shift away from fossil fuels that some countries had hoped to see, but the discussion will not stop there. Just over 80 countries , including EU member states, the UK, Australia, countries in Latin America and Africa, and island states had pushed for the overarching Cop 30 text to address the transition away from fossil fuels, the largest contributor to climate change, but language on a roadmap did not make the final decision. Opposition from major oil-producing countries proved too strong to push the roadmap through, European ministers said. Parties instead agreed on the launch of a "global implementation accelerator (GIA)", and the "Belem Mission to 1.5". These voluntary initiatives are aimed at "enabling ambition and implementation" of countries' climate plans and at keeping the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C temperature rise limit within reach. This refers to the more ambitious goal of the Paris accord — to hold the global rise in temperature to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. "Although text addressing the response [to a lack of climate ambition] was watered down, there are hooks to build on within the GIA and the Belem Mission to 1.5°C," environmental think-tank E3G said. By the end of the summit, 119 countries — accounting for 74pc of global emissions — had submitted new commitments in nationally determined contributions (NDCs), non-profit group WRI noted. But these plans, if delivered, only account for 15pc of the emissions cut required by 2035 to limit the rise to 1.5°C. As a consolation prize, the Brazilian Cop 30 presidency pledged to deliver roadmaps on the transition away from fossil fuel and on halting and reversing deforestation. This echoed Cop 29's outcome, when a roadmap was promised, for scaling up climate finance to $1.3 trillion/yr by 2025 for developing countries that were left disappointed. The roadmaps "will be led by science and they will be inclusive", summit president Andre Correa do Lago said. Brazil holds the presidency until Cop 31 in Turkey next year. In the interim, the country plans to convene high-level talks with key international organisations, fossil fuel-producing and consuming countries, workers and civil society, do Lago said. He also noted that the presidency would "benefit from the first international conference for the phase-out of fossil fuels", to he held in Colombia in April. Having the roadmap in the Cop 30 text would have sent a much stronger signal, as "the main text is an obligation for all", EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said as the summit closed. But the presidency's work on a roadmap, high-level dialogues and the event in Colombia will create further milestones for climate discussions on the transition from fossil fuels, observers said. The presidency's roadmap could create momentum for the start of a plan on fossil fuels from willing countries, even though it sits outside official Cop negotiations. Fault lines The pushback from major oil and gas producers on cutting emissions by reducing fossil fuel use — evident at Cop 29 last year — grew firmer in Belem, and shows no sign of abating. The achievement at Cop 30 was not to renege on the Cop 28 consensus, French climate minister Monique Barbut said. Almost 200 countries pledged at Cop 28 in Dubai in 2023 to transition away from fossil fuels "in a just, orderly and equitable manner… so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science". The Cop 28 outcome also called for renewable energy capacity to triple and energy efficiency to double by 2030 and for "accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power". The main Cop 30 text does not mention the transition away from fossil fuels, and only makes two references to the Cop 28 deal — dubbed "the UAE consensus". Even pointing to the energy package within the Dubai deal agreed two years ago proved too much for some oil-producing countries. "The [UN climate body] UNFCCC's consensus-based process, as well as the lack of a concrete proposal to create the framework for developing countries to phase out fossil fuels, hindered the adoption of a roadmap in the Cop cover decision text," the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative said. The final day of Cop 30 — which ran more than 24 hours over time — saw decisions swiftly adopted. But Colombia spoke out against one, objecting that it included no language on the transition away from fossil fuels. "We are demanding the minimum necessary," Colombia's representative said, to "allow language already agreed under [Cop 28] consensus to be discussed here". Confounding the consensus Correa do Lago suspended the plenary while the Cop 30 presidency sought a solution. Decisions adopted at Cop summits cannot be revoked. But Correa do Lago said countries will be able to discuss issues in June next year in Bonn, Germany, at interim climate talks hosted annually by the UNFCCC. Colombia's intervention prompted pushback from Saudi Arabia and a furious response from Russia. The latter told countries objecting to "refrain from behaving like children". India's representative said reopening discussions would be "fundamentally unfair" and "inconsistent" with UNFCCC process. Russia, India and Saudi Arabia throughout the summit opposed the addition of wording on fossil fuels, according to Barbut. Saudi Arabia reiterated throughout Cop 30 that the focus should be on reducing emissions, not on specific fuels. And the climate-sceptic stance taken by US president Donald Trump's administration emboldened major oil-producing countries to stand their ground more firmly this year, many negotiators and observers said. Developed nations were not forceful, at least in the first week of the negotiations, in their support for a roadmap to shift away from fossil fuels. The EU called it a "difficult topic" and was caught in controversial domestic discussions on its own targets and environmental ambitions before heading to the summit, which may have weakened its claims to leadership. Australia, which will preside over Cop 31 negotiations in Turkey next year, at first could not see a space for discussing the roadmap in Belem. And even though over 80 countries had thrown their weight behind the topic by the midpoint of the summit, details on what it would look like were lacking. China, the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, remained largely quiet on the topic outside negotiating rooms, redirecting attention towards renewable energy — a huge market for the country. Discussions on the transition away from fossil fuels were not expected to take centre stage at Cop , until Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for this during the leaders' summit that preceded the talks. Leadership came from developing nations, notably Colombia. And there has been an eye-catching change at this Cop in how some developing countries are reframing rhetoric around fossil fuels and economic development. Some, including those with oil projects such as Kenya and Sierra Leone, are increasingly pushing for plans to shift away from fossil fuels — in a just, equitable and orderly manner — and highlight the importance of drastically increasing energy access through the transition. A Cop 30 decision addressing "the just energy transition" was broadly well-received. The text drew links between cutting emissions and ensuring climate resilience and positive economic development. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico climate pledge clashes with refinery push
Mexico climate pledge clashes with refinery push
Houston, 13 November (Argus) — Mexico's updated climate pledge sets its most ambitious emissions target, but the plan sits in sharp contrast to the government's push to increase crude processing and fuel output at state-owned Pemex's refinery system. Mexico submitted its new nationally determined contribution (NDC) ahead of this month's UN Cop 30 summit in Belem, Brazil, committing for the first time to an absolute cap on greenhouse gas emissions of 364–404mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by 2035, or 332–363mn t CO2e with international support. The target represents a cut of more than 50pc from a business-as-usual trajectory, according to the environment ministry, and aligns with Mexico's long-term commitment to reach net zero by 2050. But while Mexico promises steep emissions reductions, it is simultaneously doubling down on a fossil-heavy industrial strategy centered on reviving its aging refining system, boosting domestic output of gasoline and diesel and limiting private-sector participation across the downstream chain. Mexico's refineries — most of which regularly run at below 50–60pc of capacity — remain among Mexico's largest stationary emitters, with high rates of flaring, residual fuel oil production and energy inefficiency. The government has also poured billions of dollars into the new 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery and continues to prioritize increasing crude throughput at the legacy system, even as maintenance shortfalls, outages and unplanned shutdowns remain common. Pemex processed about 950,000 b/d of crude across its seven domestic refineries in September, up by 8pc from a year prior and 57pc higher than the 604,300 b/d processed in September 2018, before former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador took office. Mexico's refining-heavy strategy took shape under Lopez Obrador, who made fuel self-sufficiency the centerpiece of his administration after years of under-investment and declining output at Pemex's refining system. His government moved away from the 2014 energy reform and proposed constitutional changes that would free Pemex from its obligation to operate as a "productive state company." The shift enabled greater political influence over Pemex's operations and reinforced a nationalistic focus on refining, even as the company posted financial losses and saw its crude output fall to 40-year lows. President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration has continued that trajectory. Backed by a congressional supermajority that allows her party to advance Lopez Obrador's reforms, Sheinbaum has maintained the emphasis on fuel self-sufficiency and continued to expand Pemex's role through increased state support. Mexico's NDC frames climate policy as compatible with economic development, job creation and "just transition" principles. But the plan is still vague on specific mitigation actions for the refining sector. "Mexico's ambition is clear, but delivering on these goals will require deep structural transformation and a clear, sustained investment strategy," said Francisco Barnes Regueiro, executive director of the environmental non-governmental organization the World Resources Institute in Mexico. Meanwhile, the government maintains policies and proposed reforms that favor Pemex and state utility CFE over private-sector companies, limiting private investment in cleaner fuels and renewable electricity. The lack of incentives for low-carbon technologies, combined with an aggressive push to increase domestic production of gasoline and diesel, contradicts the technical requirements implied by the emissions cap, according to market sources. The contradiction becomes more pronounced as Mexico prepares for the Cop 30 negotiations. Mexico, which now joins more than 50 countries that have updated their NDCs, will likely face scrutiny over how its energy agenda fits within its climate ambitions. For now, the gap between Mexico's stated targets and its refining-focused policy framework remains wide. Without clear measures to reduce emissions from Pemex's refining system, expand low-carbon fuels and introduce stronger regulatory incentives, the new NDC risks becoming another aspirational document. Pemex's crude throughput '000b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Can Cop summit help industry restore H2 momentum?
Can Cop summit help industry restore H2 momentum?
Brazil's renewable resources, sound economy and supportive policies could make it a powerful advocate for green H2, writes Pamela Machado Paris, 4 November (Argus) — The Cop 30 UN climate summit kicks off in a few days in Brazil against a backdrop of slowing global energy transition momentum and outright hostility from US president Donald Trump's administration to policies aimed at tackling climate change. Hydrogen has not been immune to these trends. Recent Cop summits have given the industry a platform to showcase its decarbonisation potential, but hydrogen is expected to receive a more modest hearing when delegates gather in Belem, reflecting the more downbeat global mood and the industry's slow development. This year has seen nothing like the level of final investment decisions (FIDs) for hydrogen projects that was anticipated at the start of 2025, as a combination of familiar issues — policy uncertainty, infrastructure bottlenecks and difficulties securing offtake agreements — have hindered progress for many schemes. The hydrogen sector is going through an "era of maturation and is moving from ambition to delivery — a transition similar to what solar, wind and battery industries have gone through as well", says Ivana Jemelkova, chief executive with lobby group the Hydrogen Council. This phase is "inevitably paired with attrition", Jemelkova tells Argus, with only projects demonstrating "the strongest business cases" able to line up enough financing and support to move forward. But Cop still offers an opportunity, she says — the "perfect place to advance practical solutions" to address challenges with mechanisms such as contracts-for-difference (CfD), national mandates and to set up "alliances to aggregate demand in sectors like fertilisers". Countries with renewable power potential — particularly emerging economies — have also used recent Cop summits to unveil clean hydrogen production ambitions, but momentum has slowed this year in regions such as Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa as companies have scaled back production goals and import ambitions . Emerging talent This is another area where Cop offers a chance for revival, Jemelkova argues. "As of 2025, 65 ... countries have a hydrogen strategy, of which 29 are emerging economies," she says. "This year's update of nationally determined contributions provides an opportunity to set detailed hydrogen targets." So far, there have been few signs that hydrogen will play a greater role in countries' plans, however, and the focus might lie elsewhere, given the sector's slower-than-expected progress. Brazil has used its presidency to promote hydrogen for clean industrialisation. It has announced several funding schemes, partnering with international bodies, including UN industrial development organisation Unido and the Green Climate Fund over the last year. But these initiatives have yet to yield any FIDs. International non-profit industry decarbonisation programme Industrial Transition Accelerator (ITA) chose Brazil as its first focus country because it combined government ambition, economic fundamentals and a promising project pipeline. ITA is working with 15 projects in Brazil and had hoped that some of these would reach FID ahead of the summit, but none is now expected this year. While projects reaching FID "would be a powerful symbolic accomplishment, if they cannot quite do so in time for the event, it is not a fundamental cause for concern", ITA says, as the programme's goal "is not just about individual FIDs", but also about overcoming systemic obstacles, such as high financing costs. Brazil's broader agenda as Cop president has included a pledge for nations to increase production and adoption of sustainable fuels, which seems likely to emphasise biofuels more than hydrogen-based alternatives. But planned Cop talks on increasing renewable power generation and integrating carbon markets into a global system should promote the uptake of hydrogen and derivatives, even if indirectly. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.