Overview

Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.

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Cop party profiles
03/01/25

US Congress begins with focus on energy, taxes

US Congress begins with focus on energy, taxes

Some Republicans worry that their razor-thin House majority could soon see their caucus fractured, writes Chris Knight Washington, 3 January (Argus) — The new Republican majority in US Congress has set its sights on passing legislation to grow energy production, unwind climate policies and cut trillions of dollars in taxes, but doing so will require the party to overcome its history of infighting. That disharmony was on display last month, when Republicans in the House of Representatives nearly forced a government shutdown by scuttling a spending deal negotiated by their own leaders. Similar dynamics have been at play for the past two years, as rifts over how to govern made it difficult for House Republican leaders to use a tiny majority to extract policy concessions during negotiations. The first test of party unity in the 119th Congress — sworn in on 3 January — will come as House Republicans vote on whether to re-elect Mike Johnson as speaker with an even smaller majority than last year. Johnson can only afford to lose a handful of votes, assuming all Democrats vote against him, before Republicans risk a repeat of 2023, when far-right members ousted the last speaker but could not agree on a replacement for weeks. A lengthy voting impasse could delay the 6 January certification of the election victory of president-elect Donald Trump, who this week endorsed Johnson. Trump campaigned on passing legislation to allow industry to "drill, baby, drill" by increasing federal oil and gas lease sales, removing regulations and unwinding parts of outgoing president Joe Biden's signature Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Among the options are rescinding a fee on methane emissions that started at $900/t, and requiring more oil and gas lease sales in the US Gulf of Mexico. On taxes, Trump has proposed extending $4 trillion in cuts due to expire at the end of 2025, in addition to cutting corporate rates to as low as 15pc from 20pc, rescinding clean energy credits, and putting a 20pc tariff on all imports. Other items on Congress' to-do list include passing legislation to fund the government and raising the statutory limit on federal debt. Republicans also say they want to pass a bill to expedite federal permitting, after a bipartisan effort to do so failed to advance in December. Learning to two-step Republican leaders have floated a two-step plan to pass Trump's legislative agenda that would use "budget reconciliation" — a legislative manoeuvre that will prevent a Democratic filibuster in the Senate, but which limits the bill to provisions that will affect the federal budget. Senate majority leader John Thune, a Republican from Texas, has suggested packaging immigration, border security and energy policy into a first budget bill that would pass early this year. Republicans would then have more time to debate a separate — and far more complex — budget bill that would focus on taxes and spending. But some Republicans, mindful of a slim 220-215 House majority that will temporarily shrink because of upcoming vacancies, worry the two-part strategy could fracture the caucus. Republicans have yet to decide the changes to the IRA, which includes hundreds of billions of dollars of tax credits for wind, solar, electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, carbon capture and clean hydrogen. A group of 18 House Republicans last year said they opposed a "full repeal" of the law, which disproportionately benefits districts represented by Republicans. Republicans plan to use their expanded influence to push changes at all levels of government and the work it supports. Incoming Republican chairman of the Senate energy committee John Barrasso has issued a report urging OECD energy watchdog the IEA to revive the inclusion of a "business-as-usual" reference case in its annual World Energy Outlook. Barrasso says the IEA has lost its focus on energy security and instead become a "cheerleader" for the energy transition. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop party profiles

Japan’s flexible energy plan poses unpredictable risk


20/12/24
Cop party profiles
20/12/24

Japan’s flexible energy plan poses unpredictable risk

An uncertain energy transition demands a range of policy options, but makes investment planning harder, Osaka, 20 December (Argus) — The Japanese government has addressed the uncertainty facing its new energy mix goal for the April 2040-March 2041 fiscal year by drafting multiple plans to tackle concerns over the future development of clean energy technologies. But the wide range of targets could also reduce predictability and complicate the country's energy strategy toward its 2050 net zero emissions goal. The new power mix goal will be the centrepiece of Japan's Strategic Energy Plan (SEP), which is due to be updated before the end of March 2025. The SEP must be reviewed every three years, and the previous one was formulated in 2021, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine refocused Tokyo's discussion on how to prioritise energy security, decarbonisation and economic growth. The latest review of the SEP has totally changed from the previous one, said Yoshifumi Murase, a commissioner of Japanese trade and industry ministry Meti's natural resources and energy agency, noting that Tokyo will take a flexible approach to its power mix goal while facing uncertainties that include a risk scenario for innovation failures. Meti has not disclosed details of these scenarios. The draft 2040-41 power mix entails renewable energy making up 40-50pc of the country's power generation, up from 22.9pc in 2023-24 (see table). By contrast, Tokyo plans to curb the thermal share to around 30-40pc from 68.6pc over the period. Meti has refrained from disclosing a breakdown for thermal fuels for now, as the ratio of each will vary depending on technological developments in hydrogen, ammonia and carbon capture, utilisation and storage. But the absence of a breakdown for thermal power targets could weigh on private-sector investment plans, warns one committee member. "[Technological] uncertainty does exist, but the industry can hardly invest without predictability," said Tatsuya Terazawa, chairman of the government-affiliated think-tank the Institute of Energy Economics Japan. Tokyo is supposed to increase predictability for investors with specific measures for each thermal fuel on the table, he added. Long-term uncertainty The ambiguous target also makes it difficult to map out Japan's long-term fuel procurement, especially for LNG, which would play a role in ensuring power generation flexibility alongside the growing share of solar and wind. Japan has faced falling long-term LNG supplies as previous SEPs that promoted renewables and the liberalisation of the retail power market disincentivised the industry to extend contracts. Japanese gas demand is expected to fall in the base scenario, but increase in the risk scenario, Teiko Kudo, deputy president of Sumitomo Mitsui Banking, said. It would be important to show the maximum volume of gas Japan may need within a specific period in the next SEP, she said. The issue of fuel security may be further exacerbated if Japan's planned return of nuclear reactors is delayed. Under the draft power mix for 2040-41, nuclear accounts for around 20pc, up from 8.5pc in 2023-24. But it is still uncertain how many reactors will be operational by then because of safety concerns over Japan's nuclear power sector since the 2011 Fukushima meltdown. The new SEP has made some progress, allowing nuclear power operators who had decommissioned reactors to build next generation reactors at their nuclear sites, not limited to the same site. The previous SEP did not mention building new reactors or replacements. The 2040-41 power mix aligns with a 73pc greenhouse gas emission reduction goal by 2040-41 based on 2013-14 levels. The new emissions target is currently under discussion, ahead of Japan's submission of its updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the UN Climate Change secretariat by February 2025. Power mix goals could be revised depending on the final NDC, Meti said. Japan's power mix goal % FY23 FY30 FY40 Power generation TWh 985 934 1,100-1,200 Renewable 22.9 36-38 40-50 Solar 9.8 14-16 22-29 Wind 1.1 5.0 4-8 Hydroelectric 7.6 11.0 8-10 Geothermal 0.3 1.0 1-2 Biomass 4.1 5.0 5-6 Nuclear 8.5 20-22 20 Thermal 68.6 41.0 30-40 LNG NA 20 NA Coal NA 19 NA Oil NA 2 NA Hydrogen/ammonia NA 1.0 NA ― Meti FY23: actual ratio (preliminary), FY30: confirmed goal, FY40: draft goal Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop party profiles

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high


21/11/24
Cop party profiles
21/11/24

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

London, 21 November (Argus) — The cost of government measures to support the consumption and production of fossil fuels dropped by almost a third last year as energy prices declined from record highs in 2022, according to a new report published today by the OECD. But the level of fiscal support remained higher than the historical average despite government pledges to reduce carbon emissions. In an analysis of 82 economies, data from the OECD and the IEA found that government support for fossil fuels fell to an estimated $1.1 trillion in 2023 from $1.6 trillion a year earlier. Although energy prices were lower last year than in 2022, countries maintained various fiscal measures to both stimulate fossil fuel production and reduce the burden of high energy costs for consumers, the OECD said. The measures are in the form of direct payments by governments to individual recipients, tax concessions and price support. The latter includes "direct price regulation, pricing formulas, border controls or taxes, and domestic purchase or supply mandates", the OECD said. These government interventions come at a large financial cost and increase carbon emissions, undermining the net-zero transition, the report said. Of the estimated $1.1 trillion of support, direct transfers and tax concessions accounted for $514.1bn, up from $503.7bn in 2022. Transfers amounted to $269.8bn, making them more costly than tax concessions of $244.3bn. Some 90pc of the transfers were to support consumption by households and companies, the rest was to support producers. The residential sector benefited from a 22pc increase from a year earlier, and support to manufacturers and industry increased by 14pc. But the majority of fuel consumption measures are untargeted, and support largely does not land where it is needed, the OECD said. The "under-pricing" of fossil fuels amounted to $616.4bn last year, around half of the 2022 level, the report said. "Benchmark prices (based on energy supply costs) eased, particularly for natural gas, thereby decreasing the difference between the subsidised end-user prices and the benchmark prices," it said. In terms of individual fossil fuels, the fiscal cost of support for coal fell the most, to $27.7bn in 2023 from $43.5bn a year earlier. The cost of support for natural gas has grown steadily in recent years, amounting to $343bn last year compared with $144bn in 2018. The upward trend is explained by its characterisation as a transition fuel and the disruption of Russian pipeline supplies to Europe, the report said. By Alejandro Moreano and Tim van Gardingen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop party profiles

Lula, Biden reach new energy transition deal


19/11/24
Cop party profiles
19/11/24

Lula, Biden reach new energy transition deal

Rio de Janeiro, 19 November (Argus) — The US and Brazil have sealed a new partnership to advance the energy transition, despite looming uncertainty over the future of US climate policies under the incoming Donald Trump administration. The partnership was announced following a meeting today between US President Joe Biden and Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro. Energy transition was one of Brazil's three goals for its G20 presidency, which it handed over to South Africa today. The two countries have agreed to focus on three pillars, the US embassy in Brazil said, as they pursue the dual objective of fostering economic growth and job creation while meeting climate targets like emissions reduction and keeping average global temperatures from rising by more than 1.5°C. These pillars are the acceleration and expansion of clean energy production and deployment, the development of the clean energy supply chain and green industrialization. The partnership intends to mobilize financing from public, private and multilateral development institutions to pursue the decarbonization of the power, transportation, industrial and manufacturing sectors in both countries. This joint effort between the US and Brazil is aligned with their domestic policies, the embassy noted, notably Brazil's new industrial policy and the US' bipartisan infrastructure law and the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. A commitment to fighting climate change and developing the green economy is a key aspect of Lula and Biden's shared agenda. But both this cooperation and the future of Biden-era clean energy incentives are in question following Trump's victory in the US election. Trump has tapped oil executive and energy transition critic Chris Wright to lead the US Department of Energy (DOE). By Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop party profiles

UK ramps up climate action under new leadership


28/10/24
Cop party profiles
28/10/24

UK ramps up climate action under new leadership

London, 28 October (Argus) — The UK's Labour government, elected in July, has taken the country's climate policy in a new direction, restoring pledges the previous administration scrapped and seeking to funnel investment to renewables. The UN Cop 29 climate summit presents an opportunity for it to follow this up on an international stage. Hosting Cop 26 in 2021 allowed the UK to burnish its climate leadership credentials, but subsequent changes in the Conservative government saw policy reversals. Labour sought to differentiate its position on climate during the election campaign — possibly noting an increase in support for the UK's Green and Liberal Democrat parties, both of which hold firm pro-environment stances. Labour promised to issue no new oil, gas or coal licences — although it said it would not revoke existing permits — and is aiming for zero-emissions power by 2030. Energy minister Ed Miliband in his first week in office lifted the de facto ban on onshore wind, and set up a taskforce to speed the country's path to a decarbonised power grid. The UK has in recent weeks pulled in around £24bn ($31bn) of investment for renewables, including from utilities Orsted and Iberdrola, and announced "up to" £21.7bn in funding over 25 years for carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) — although it is unclear how the money will be deployed. The government moved swiftly to raise the windfall tax on oil and gas profits, lifting it to an effective rate of 78pc and scrapping one of the investment allowances — although the decarbonisation investment allowance remains in place. And, spurred by a landmark ruling made by the UK's Supreme Court in June, the government pledged new environmental guidance for oil and gas fields by spring 2025. The judgment ruled that consent for an oil development was unlawful, as the Scope 3 emissions — those from burning the oil produced — were not considered. The government has in the meantime halted assessment of any environmental statements for oil and gas extraction, including those already being processed, until the new guidance is in place. The Labour government has declined to defend in court decisions taken by various iterations of the Conservative administration, including the permission granted for a proposed coal mine in northwest England. The High Court quashed that planning permission in September. International stage Miliband has sought guidance from independent advisory the Climate Change Committee (CCC) on the country's new climate plan, known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC). The CCC assessed the previous government as off track to hit legally binding emissions-reduction targets. The UK has cut emissions by half since 1990 and is in line with all carbon budgets to date. But much of this progress was made from a baseline of a high rate of coal-fired power generation, all of which is now shut down. The next stage of the country's decarbonisation will be more fragmented and is likely to pose more of a challenge. The UK has bucked the trend set by some European neighbours by shifting further left with Labour, although the new government has promoted fiscal caution. Climate finance will dominate the talks in Azerbaijan, and the UK has been clear it will continue to contribute. Labour pledged in its manifesto to "return to the forefront of climate action", noting that the previous administration had "squandered [the UK's] climate leadership". Foreign minister David Lammy has embedded climate and nature issues into his foreign policy brief and the government has appointed special representatives for climate and nature. But Cop 29 will prove the first real test of the pledges made, with a global audience watching. UK greenhouse gas emissions Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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