Sheinbaum leads in Mexico election to follow AMLO

Ruling party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum was winning Mexico's presidential election by a wide margin today, according to preliminary results, after a race in which she committed to continue President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's state-centric energy policies.

Sheinbaum with the Morena party was ahead with 59pc of the vote as of 12am ET on Monday after Sunday's election, according to early results from the national electoral institute (INE), based on less than 7pc of the total votes. She was followed by Xochitl Galvez from a right-left (PRI-PAN-PRD) coalition with 29pc, and Jorge Alvarez Maynez from left-centrist Movimiento Ciudadano with 9pc.

The former mayor of Mexico City and climate scientist vowed during the campaign to boost renewable energy, but also to keep state-owned companies at the center of the market. Lopez Obrador, known as AMLO, had started rolling back then-recent openings for private-sector energy investment when he took office in 2018.

The Morena party began celebrating Sheinbaum's victory, but the opposition had yet to concede the race as of midnight.

Sheinbaum's party and allies are also leading the congressional race, according to preliminary results. Sheinbaum's Morena and allies were ahead with around 55pc of the 500 seats in the lower house, with 35pc for the PRI-PAN-PRD coalition and 10pc for Movimiento Ciudadano.

Morena and allies also were winning a majortiy of the 128 seats in the upper house with similar figures, preliminary results from the INE show.

More detailed results are expected in the coming days, once more than 50pc of the votes are counted.

With Sheinbaum at the forefront of polls for months, the Morena party focused on securing majorities in both houses of congress. But the incumbent party could fall short of the 66.67pc of both houses needed to implement broad constitutional reforms.

Instead, Sheinbaum is expected to continue with Lopez Obrador's energy sovereignty policies and strengthening oil company Pemex and power utility CFE through financial support rather than eliminating the 2014 energy reform from the constitution.

Sheinbaum — who will become Mexico's first female president and the first in North America — has vowed to continue supporting Pemex and CFE, limiting private-sector investment despite the companies' limited financial capacities.

She has indicated during the campaign that there will still be no auctions of areas for oil exploration after the Lopez Obrador government halted these.

In downstream, Sheinbaum has expressed support for major Pemex's refining projects such as two under-construction cokers and the start-up of the long-delayed 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery, in line with Lopez Obrador's goal to cut fuel imports.

Mexico's government poured around $4bn into maintenance alone at Pemex's aging refineries during the Lopez Obrador administration, in addition to $6bn-$8bn for the uncompleted cokers and a spiraling $16bn-$20bn for the Olmeca refinery.

Pemex's refining system increased its crude processing by 53pc to 975,500 b/d in January-April, up from 639,000 b/d in the same period of 2018 prior to the start of Lopez Obrador's administration.

Mexico also held governor elections in nine states, including Mexico City, but the preliminary results were not yet available.

The country experienced its largest election with nearly 20,000 posts up for election, but also its most violent in modern times with 30 candidates killed.

The next president will take office on 1 October for six years and the new congress will be sworn in on 1 September.

By Antonio Gozain