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Sheinbaum leads in Mexico election to follow AMLO

  • Market: Crude oil, Fertilizers, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 03/06/24

Ruling party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum was winning Mexico's presidential election by a wide margin today, according to preliminary results, after a race in which she committed to continue President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's state-centric energy policies.

Sheinbaum with the Morena party was ahead with 59pc of the vote as of 12am ET on Monday after Sunday's election, according to early results from the national electoral institute (INE), based on less than 7pc of the total votes. She was followed by Xochitl Galvez from a right-left (PRI-PAN-PRD) coalition with 29pc, and Jorge Alvarez Maynez from left-centrist Movimiento Ciudadano with 9pc.

The former mayor of Mexico City and climate scientist vowed during the campaign to boost renewable energy, but also to keep state-owned companies at the center of the market. Lopez Obrador, known as AMLO, had started rolling back then-recent openings for private-sector energy investment when he took office in 2018.

The Morena party began celebrating Sheinbaum's victory, but the opposition had yet to concede the race as of midnight.

Sheinbaum's party and allies are also leading the congressional race, according to preliminary results. Sheinbaum's Morena and allies were ahead with around 55pc of the 500 seats in the lower house, with 35pc for the PRI-PAN-PRD coalition and 10pc for Movimiento Ciudadano.

Morena and allies also were winning a majortiy of the 128 seats in the upper house with similar figures, preliminary results from the INE show.

More detailed results are expected in the coming days, once more than 50pc of the votes are counted.

With Sheinbaum at the forefront of polls for months, the Morena party focused on securing majorities in both houses of congress. But the incumbent party could fall short of the 66.67pc of both houses needed to implement broad constitutional reforms.

Instead, Sheinbaum is expected to continue with Lopez Obrador's energy sovereignty policies and strengthening oil company Pemex and power utility CFE through financial support rather than eliminating the 2014 energy reform from the constitution.

Sheinbaum — who will become Mexico's first female president and the first in North America — has vowed to continue supporting Pemex and CFE, limiting private-sector investment despite the companies' limited financial capacities.

She has indicated during the campaign that there will still be no auctions of areas for oil exploration after the Lopez Obrador government halted these.

In downstream, Sheinbaum has expressed support for major Pemex's refining projects such as two under-construction cokers and the start-up of the long-delayed 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery, in line with Lopez Obrador's goal to cut fuel imports.

Mexico's government poured around $4bn into maintenance alone at Pemex's aging refineries during the Lopez Obrador administration, in addition to $6bn-$8bn for the uncompleted cokers and a spiraling $16bn-$20bn for the Olmeca refinery.

Pemex's refining system increased its crude processing by 53pc to 975,500 b/d in January-April, up from 639,000 b/d in the same period of 2018 prior to the start of Lopez Obrador's administration.

Mexico also held governor elections in nine states, including Mexico City, but the preliminary results were not yet available.

The country experienced its largest election with nearly 20,000 posts up for election, but also its most violent in modern times with 30 candidates killed.

The next president will take office on 1 October for six years and the new congress will be sworn in on 1 September.


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14/11/24

Cop: EU ETS volatility problem for corporate CCS case

Cop: EU ETS volatility problem for corporate CCS case

Baku, 14 November (Argus) — Price fluctuations in the EU emissions trading system (ETS) make it difficult for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects to attract finance, delegates at a UN Cop 29 climate conference side event in Baku, Azerbaijan, heard today. Fluctuations in the EU ETS price make it more difficult to model the support provided to CCS projects through avoided compliance costs, law firm Latham & Watkins partner Jean-Philippe Brisson said. These ups and downs are "very difficult for corporates", Japanese bank MUFG director Yukimi Shimura said. The benchmark front-year EU ETS contract has closed at an average of €66.20/t ($69.82/t) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) so far this year in Argus assessments, compared with €85.30/t CO2e last year. While carbon pricing is an "absolute must" for CCS, if ETS cost avoidance is your only revenue stream it is very difficult to convince financials or board members to support projects, Swiss cement major Holcim vice president Pavan Chilukuri said, as the long-term viability of projects is not guaranteed. Additional funding is therefore needed to accelerate project implementation, Chilukuri said. This could be in the form of revenues from carbon dioxide removal credits — generated when plants run on biogenic energy and the carbon captured — or carbon contracts for difference. The CCS hub concept — where a number of sites capturing CO2 are located near each other to make use of the same transportation and storage infrastructure — can also help to limit costs, he said. But hubs come with their own cross-chain risks, Shimura said, including uncertainty surrounding liability for issues such as delays. The UK government — which is developing two CCS clusters — is doing an "excellent job" to minimise such risks, Shimura said. But more needs to be done in the US and Asia, with a role to be played by governments, she said. Most CCS activity remains concentrated in the US because incentives there are very strong and fixed for 12 years, Brisson said, referring to the $85/t tax credit for CCS offered under the country's Inflation Reduction Act. But even this is now "not good enough", Shimura said, as inflation has pushed costs up since the figure was set. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Bangladesh’s spot LNG purchases spike on power demand


14/11/24
News
14/11/24

Bangladesh’s spot LNG purchases spike on power demand

Mumbai, 14 November (Argus) — Spot LNG imports into Bangladesh have spiked just three months into the interim government of Muhammad Yunus. The interest upsurge is the largest seen so far, and is made more compelling particularly with spot prices well above $13/mn Btu, which has sidelined even key importers such as India and China. The rise in LNG imports comes on the back of Bangladesh's power market struggling to meet electricity supply owing to unpaid power bills under the previous prime minister Sheikh Hasina's government earlier this year. Bangladesh's power generation currently has stabilised after experiencing a sharp downturn in August when the former prime minister resigned. Maximum power generation so far this month stands at an average of 12.5GW, up by 6pc on the year (s ee graph ). Bangladesh's Rupantarita Prakritik Gas (RPGCL), operating under state-owned oil and gas firm Petrobangla, is the sole LNG importer in the country. The super-chilled fuel helps to meet over 50pc of the country's electricity requirement. RPGCL floated tenders for 23 LNG cargoes since September this year including multiple reissuances, compared with just eight cargoes floated over the same period last year. RPGCL floated tenders for a total of 27 cargoes in 2023, Argus data show. These tenders were mostly awarded to four suppliers — Singapore-based Vitol Asia, Gunvor Singapore, TotalEnergies and Excelerate Energy, despite having a list of 23 companies across the globe to import LNG from. Out of the 23 LNG tenders since September this year, only nine were awarded to these four firms except for one to Japan's Jera. Other tenders were withdrawn or reissued, possibly owing to insufficient offers, Argus data indicate. The firm recently invited expressions of interest (EOI) from sellers that wish to supply delivered LNG to Bangladesh to widen its pool of participants from which it may buy spot LNG. The move could be linked to new public procurement regulations imposed by the interim government that require RPGCL to receive a minimum of three offers before it is able to award its tenders. New vs old rules The Public Procurement Rules, 2008 (PPR-2008), were set out to ensure transparency, efficiency and fair competition in the procurement of goods, works or services using public funds. This deviates from RPGCL's previous practice of following a special power and energy law that had no mandatory provision on minimum participation in tenders, a company official told Argus last month. The previous government had enacted the Speedy Power and Energy Supply (Special) Act 2010 to operate without tendering, which was mainly an impunity act based on a provision that prevented the act to be challenged in court. The enactment of raising the EOI for the new seller list by the interim government is likely to stop any monopoly or preference for a particular LNG supplier in the country. While some of the RPGCL tenders have gone unawarded in recent months owing to insufficient offers, a few of the recent tenders were heard to be awarded despite attracting just two offers, in an attempt to implement the PPR-2008 rules, according to sources with knowledge of the matter. While it is still uncertain if RPGCL would be able to garner interest from more LNG sellers across the globe at a time when it is getting back on its feet to establish strong and transparent governance, it remains to be seen if more portfolio players would want to show their willingness to support a country that is likely to be hungry for gas for decades to come as their domestic production remains weak. Gas output Bangladesh's gas production including LNG stands at 2,868mn ft³/d (29.5bn m³/yr) as of 13 November, data from Petrobangla show. There was no figure available for the same period last year for comparison. Gas output in the country has been weak since the Covid pandemic, with output falling to up to 2,306mn ft³/d, lower by 5pc on the year, Petrobangla data show. The production volumes also include LNG supply, which could meet 54pc of the gas demand of the country in 2023 ( see table ). The interim government is heard to be addressing the most pressing issues in the country, particularly relating to the oil and gas exploration industry. Petrobangla has invited bids under Bangladesh Offshore Bidding Round 2024, offering a total of 24 blocks that include nine shallow-sea blocks and 15 deep-sea blocks with both oil and gas reserves. It has extended the deadline for bid submission to 9 December 2024, from 9 September 2024 previously. By Rituparna Ghosh, Rou Urn Lee and Naomi Ong Bangladesh natural gas (mn ft³/d) Natural gas 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 Demand 3,852 3,996 4,163 4,214 4,274 Production(domestic+imported LNG) 2,712 2,669 2,722 2,414 2,306 Shortfall 1,140 1,327 1,441 1,800 1,968 — Bangladesh energy and mineral resource division Bangladesh power generation MW Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IEA sees wider oil market surplus next year


14/11/24
News
14/11/24

IEA sees wider oil market surplus next year

London, 14 November (Argus) — The IEA is predicting a global oil supply surplus of over 1mn b/d next year, which it says will provide "much-needed stability" to the market. The Paris-based agency's latest Oil Market Report (OMR) shows a 1.15mn b/d supply surplus next year, the highest since it first started projecting supply and demand levels for 2025 in April this year. It is 40,000 b/d higher than its estimate last month. "With supply risks omnipresent, a looser balance would provide some much-needed stability to a market upended by the Covid pandemic, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and, most recently, heightened unrest in the Middle East," the IEA said. The IEA's projected supply surplus could be much higher if Opec+ members push ahead with a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" production cuts from January over a 12-month period. But this is not guaranteed. Weaker-than-expected demand has already forced the Opec+ members to delay their plan to start increasing output by three months. Opec+ ministers are set to decide on their output policy for 2025 and beyond in a meeting on 1 December. The IEA's oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next remain below 1mn b/d — a steep drop compared with 2mn b/d last year and 2.5mn b/d in 2022. For this year, the IEA has raised its oil demand growth projection by 60,000 b/d to 920,000 b/d, mostly because of higher-than-expected consumption in Europe. Its forecast for next year has been nudged down by 10,000 b/d to 990,000 b/d compared with last month's OMR. Much of the slowdown in global consumption centres on China, where the economy is not growing as fast as it once did. The IEA has kept its oil demand growth for China unchanged at 150,000 b/d for this year, but this is far below the 710,000 b/d it was forecasting in January. The agency said Chinese oil demand contracted for a sixth straight month in September, pushing consumption in the third quarter 270,000 b/d below year-earlier levels. For next year, the IEA has lowered its Chinese demand growth forecast by 30,000 b/d to 190,000 b/d. China's slowing oil demand is also due to an increased uptake of electric vehicles, LNG-powered trucks and high-speed rail, the IEA said. On global supply, the IEA has trimmed its growth estimate for this year by 20,000 b/d to 640,000 b/d. But for next year, it sees supply growth accelerating to more than 2mn b/d, led by the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina. The agency said global observed oil stocks declined by 47.5mn bl in September to their lowest level since January. It also said preliminary data show stocks fell further in October. By Aydin Calik Supply and demand balance Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Bangladesh’s BCIC issues phosrock buy-tender


14/11/24
News
14/11/24

Bangladesh’s BCIC issues phosrock buy-tender

London, 14 November (Argus) — Bangladeshi fertilizer producer and importer BCIC has issued a tender to buy 30,000t of phosphate rock of at least 70 BPL (32pc P2O5), closing on 31 December. BCIC wants the cargo to be shipped to Chattogram within 30 days from issuing the letter of credit. Bangladeshi demand has added support to phosphates in the east and helped to tighten availability. BCIC will also close tenders to buy phosphoric acid on 18 and 20 November, and 1 January. And Bangladesh's ministry of agriculture has reportedly awarded cargoes under its 10 November private-sector tender after getting offers for 94,000t of DAP ranging $692-697/t cfr and 30,000t of TSP at $573/t cfr. The awarded prices, volumes and origins have not yet emerged. The ministry will close another private-sector tender seeking 200,000t of DAP and TSP on 18 November. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Argentina pulls delegation from Baku


13/11/24
News
13/11/24

Cop: Argentina pulls delegation from Baku

Montevideo, 13 November (Argus) — Argentina's government today withdrew its delegation from the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. The country's foreign affairs ministry confirmed to Argus that the delegation had been told to leave the event, which began on 11 November and will run through 22 November. No reason was given for the decision, but it fits the general policies of President Javier Milei, who has expressed skepticism about climate change. Milei eliminated the country's environment ministry shortly after taking office in December 2023. He is also pursuing investment to monetize oil and gas reserves, with a focus on the Vaca Muerta unconventional formation. Vaca Muerta has an estimated 308 trillion cf of natural gas and 16bn bl of oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In October, the government created the Argentina LNG division with a plan to involve private companies and the state-owned YPF to produce and export up to 30mn metric tonnes (t)/yr of LNG by 2030. It wants to export 1mn bl of crude. The plans are closely linked to a new investment framework, known as RIGI, that will provide incentives for large-scale investments. The administration is also pushing hard for investment in critical minerals, including copper and lithium. Argentina has the world's second-largest lithium resources, estimated at 22mn t by the US Geological Survey. It has copper potential that the RIGI would help tap. The government has not specified if pulling out of Cop 29 means Argentina will withdraw from the Paris Agreement, which Argentina ratified in 2016. The country's nationally determined contribution calls for net emissions not to exceed 359mn t of CO2 by 2030. This represents a 21pc reduction of emissions from the maximum reached in 2007. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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