Ukraine corn 2024-25 output to fall to 22.9mn t

Argus forecasts Ukraine's 2024-25 corn production to fall sharply on the year and five-year average because unfavourable weather during development has cut yields, adding to pressure from lower areas on the year.

Argus projects Ukraine's corn output at 22.9mn t in the 2024-25 marketing year (October-September), down from its estimate for 2023-24 at 31.5mn t. The new Argus forecast is also lower than the latest 2024-25 projections from the US Department of Agriculture at 27.2mn t.

Record-high temperatures in July and a lack of rainfall has caused a potential drop in corn yields by 10-30pc this season compared with last year, when favourable weather conditions resulted in above-average yields in some regions. For the 2024-25 crop, yields have fallen in all key producing regions. Corn crops in western regions fared better than those in northern and central regions. Argus forecasts the 2024-25 average corn yields at 5.87 t/hectare (t/ha), significantly lower than Argus' 2023-24 estimate of 7.78 t/ha for last year.

Total 2024-25 corn harvested areas are forecast at 3.89mn ha, down by 2pc on the year. Areas might shrink further because some farmers have used crops from their worse-off fields for silage.