Ukraine corn 2024-25 output to fall to 22.9mn t

Spanish Market: Agriculture
28/08/24

Argus forecasts Ukraine's 2024-25 corn production to fall sharply on the year and five-year average because unfavourable weather during development has cut yields, adding to pressure from lower areas on the year.

Argus projects Ukraine's corn output at 22.9mn t in the 2024-25 marketing year (October-September), down from its estimate for 2023-24 at 31.5mn t. The new Argus forecast is also lower than the latest 2024-25 projections from the US Department of Agriculture at 27.2mn t.

Record-high temperatures in July and a lack of rainfall has caused a potential drop in corn yields by 10-30pc this season compared with last year, when favourable weather conditions resulted in above-average yields in some regions. For the 2024-25 crop, yields have fallen in all key producing regions. Corn crops in western regions fared better than those in northern and central regions. Argus forecasts the 2024-25 average corn yields at 5.87 t/hectare (t/ha), significantly lower than Argus' 2023-24 estimate of 7.78 t/ha for last year.

Total 2024-25 corn harvested areas are forecast at 3.89mn ha, down by 2pc on the year. Areas might shrink further because some farmers have used crops from their worse-off fields for silage.

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29/08/24

Poor wheat crop to slash French exports

Paris, 29 August (Argus) — French wheat exports outside the EU could fall to their lowest in two decades in 2024-25, based on Argus ' forecast of a 25.17mn t harvest. France may have just 4.1mn t of wheat — excluding durum — available for export to non-EU countries in 2024-25 (July-June), Argus said. French exports to other countries in the EU are projected at 6.3mn t. This would cut French wheat exports outside the bloc to their lowest since 2001-02. France on average exported 10mn t to non-EU countries over the past five marketing years. Major importers of French wheat in the 2023-24 marketing year included Morocco, which took 2.7mn t, and China and sub-Saharan Africa, which each took 2.4mn t. The drop in exports is the result of a catastrophic season for French wheat production, with Argus expecting France to record its smallest wheat harvest in 41 years. Argus earlier this month pegged France's wheat crop at 25.17mn t, based on feedback from farmers, grain trading firms and co-operatives across France collected between 1-5 August. Near-continuous rain from planting until harvest devastated both planted areas and yields . Crop quality issue Unfavourable weather has also affected the quality of French wheat. Key measures of quality, in particular the test weight of the crop, vary highly from region to region this year. Both French producers and exporters have already slowed sales activity at the start of the 2024-25 marketing year in response to signs of a poor crop. Exporters buying wheat on the local cpt market have mostly had to buy at basis to Euronext futures, well above fob prices in the international market, Argus assessed prices show. Argus also highlighted the impact of a poor crop on France's domestic sector. Producers risk selling at negative margins for all three key crops — wheat, feed barley and rapeseed — harvested in 2024. For wheat, this would mean the crop has been loss-making for the eighth time in the past 20 years. France is historically the largest wheat producer and exporter in the EU. It is not the only country in Europe to harvest a smaller crop this year, with Germany and the UK also hard hit by wet weather. Global picture Argus expects total wheat production in the EU and UK at 135mn t this year, the lowest since 2012. This implies exports outside of the bloc and UK at 29.5mn t in the 2024-25 marketing year, compared with an average 35.4mn t/yr over the past five years. The EU as a bloc is one of the world's top eight wheat exporters. Any loss in market share is set to go to Russia, Ukraine, the US and Canada, with the US expecting its largest wheat crop in eight years. Key exporters Australia and Argentina in the southern hemisphere are also projected to have relatively high supply for 2024-25 once harvesting begins later this year. That said, the balance between global supply and demand remains tight for 2024-25. Argus projects combined export supply from the world's top eight exporters at a three-year low. And while the start of the marketing year has been characterised by falling prices as northern hemisphere exporters compete for slow demand, the situation could change rapidly if buyers in north Africa, China and potentially India return en masse. By Maxence Devillers and Claudia Jackson French common wheat exports to non-EU countries (mn t) French common wheat production (mn t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Low water spurs Mississippi River restrictions

27/08/24

Low water spurs Mississippi River restrictions

Houston, 27 August (Argus) — The US Coast Guard implemented draft restrictions for the lower Mississippi River yesterday as water levels fall. Beginning from around Tiptonville, Tennessee, to Rosedale, Mississippi, southbound barge drafts cannot be greater than 11ft and tow more than seven barges wide. Southbound transit from Rosedale to Tunica, Mississippi, cannot have a draft deeper than 11.5ft. Northbound drafts from Tunica to Tiptonville cannot be greater than 10ft. The operating drafts were reduced to 9ft in mid-October , but water levels began declining in June last year. The low water threshold of -2ft has been passed at Tunica Mhoon Landing, Mississippi, reaching -3.4ft. Memphis, Tennessee is only 2.5ft above its low water threshold. The US Coast Guard has initiated a 9ft draft requirement over the last two years when several points along the lower Mississippi have fallen below their low water threshold. Multiple sites on the lower Mississippi are forecast to reach their low water thresholds by the second week of September, according to the National Weather Service. Southbound freight rates are likely to rise as draft restrictions force barge carriers to employ larger fleets to move the same volumes, especially as crop harvests continue. With restrictions on the number of towable barges, more transits will have to occur for both south and northbound products. Grain exporters at New Orleans have taken to the sidelines as the risk of grain being caught on the lower Mississippi River has increased. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australian canola output to fall in 2024-25: AOF

27/08/24

Australian canola output to fall in 2024-25: AOF

Sydney, 27 August (Argus) — Australian canola production is expected to fall in 2024-25 following a smaller expected harvest area and a mixed crop outlook across regions, according to the Australian Oilseeds Federation's (AOF) August crop report. The AOF projects canola production to fall by 367,000t to 5.44mn t in 2024-25 from 2023-24. The area harvested is expected to fall by 356,000 hectares (ha) to 3.24mn ha, which is 36,000 ha more than the AOF's forecast made in June . Production is set to fall in all states, except New South Wales (NSW), which is anticipated to increase by 330,000t to 1.67mn t in 2024-25 from 2023-24 despite a smaller harvest area. NSW cropping regions have benefited from favourable rainfall and good soil moisture levels and are expected to reach average or above average yields. But crops in southern and southwestern regions are behind on typical growth and will need continuing favourable seasonal conditions to reach below average yield potential. The AOF also warned that more advanced crops are subject to frost risk. The largest harvested area reduction was in Western Australia (WA), which accounted for 45pc of total production in 2023-24, according to AOF sourced estimates. Growers reduced their canola plantings because of a hot and dry summer and the absence of a material rainfall event to start the growing season during April-May. Further reductions resulted as crops were abandoned and resown with alternative crops. The US Department of Agriculture expects a larger crop in 2024-25, projecting Australian canola output at 5.5mn t in the 2024-25 marketing year. By Edward Dunlop Australian canola harvest area, production 2023-24 2024-25 y-o-y ± Harvest area (ha) NSW 866,000 820,000 -5% Victoria 601,000 600,000 -0% South Australia 284,000 260,000 -8% WA 1,845,000 1,560,000 -15% Total 3,596,000 3,240,000 -10% Production (t) NSW 1,340,000 1,670,000 25% Victoria 1,410,000 1,245,000 -12% South Australia 468,000 400,000 -15% WA 2,584,000 2,120,000 -18% Total 5,802,000 5,435,000 -6% Source: AOF Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canadian labor board orders rail service to resume

25/08/24

Canadian labor board orders rail service to resume

Houston, 25 August (Argus) — Canada's two Class I railroads avoided a crippling extended work stoppage on Saturday, after an independent labor board upheld the Canadian government's order for the railroads to enter binding arbitration with a labor union representing more than 9,000 rail employees. The Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB), in two separate orders, directed the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) to enter binding arbitration with the nation's two Class I railroads — Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National (CN). The order heads off an extended work stoppage that would have echoed across North American supply chains for virtually all commodities, from crude, refined products, LPG and coal to fertilizers like potash, as well as consumer and industrial goods. Virtually all railed shipments carried by CN and CPKC came to a grinding halt early on 22 August after months-long talks between the railroads and the TCRC hit an impasse. Later the same day, the Canadian government stepped in to force parties into binding arbitration, but the TCRC said it would not abide by the directive without a ruling from the CIRB. In its rulings, the CIRB ordered CN and CPKC employees represented by the TCRC to resume their duties as of 12:01 am EDT on 26 August and remain "until the final binding interest arbitration process is completed". The CIRB also ruled that no further labor stoppages, including lockouts or strikes, could occur during the arbitration process, effectively voiding a TCRC strike notice issued on 23 August for CN workers set to take effect on 26 August. CN and CPKC said they will comply with the CIRB order, and CPKC asked TCRC employees to return to work on 25 August "so that we can get the Canadian economy moving again as quickly as possible and avoid further disruption to supply chains". The TCRC said it would comply with the CIRB decision, even though it sets a "dangerous precedent". TCRC plans to appeal the ruling in federal court. "The ruling signals to corporate Canada that large companies need only stop their operations for a few hours, inflict short-term economic pain, and the federal government will step in to break a union," TCRC president Paul Boucher said. "The rights of Canadian workers have been significantly diminished today." It could take weeks for Canadian rail operations to return to normal. CPKC said it could take several weeks for its rail network to fully recover from the work stoppage and even longer for supply chains to stabilize. Canadian railroads last week embargoed shipments of toxic materials and earlier this week stopped loading any new railcars. By Chris Baltimore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Union plans new rail strike despite order: Update

23/08/24

Union plans new rail strike despite order: Update

Adds additional comment from Teamsters Canada Rail Conference Washington, 23 August (Argus) — The status of rail freight in Canada remains uncertain after a Canadian labor union today issued a new strike notice to Canadian National (CN), less than a day after the federal government ordered all parties to participate in binding arbitration. The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) today issued notice to CN that members will go on strike at 10am ET on 26 August. The union had not issued a strike notice to CN earlier this week, but employees could not work yesterday after the CN and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) locked them out. The union said it moved to strike to "frustrate CN's attempt to force arbitration", and protect workers' rights to collectively bargain. CN had previously sought a federal order for binding arbitration. The government's back-to-work order yesterday sidestepped the collective bargaining process, and "undermined the foundation on which labour unions work to improve wages and working conditions for all Canadians", union president Paul Boucher said today. "Bargaining is also the primary way our union fights for rail safety — all considerations that outweigh short-term economic concerns," Boucher said. The union was more optimistic in its strike notice to CN this morning. "We do not believe that any of the matters we have been discussing over the last several days are insurmountable." It said it would be available to discuss issues to avoid another work stoppage. CN indicated it was frustrated with the union's action. "While CN is focused on its recovery plan to get back to powering the economy, the Teamsters are focused on returning to the picket line and holding the country hostage to their demands," the railroad said. CN last night had begun implementing a recovery plan to restore service . The union has not yet responded to inquiries about its action today. The office of labour minister Steven MacKinnon declined to comment. Rail operations at CN and CP stopped at 12:01am ET on Thursday after the union launched a strike at CPKC and both railroads locked out employees. That action ended late Thursday afternoon with the federal government directing the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to manage binding arbitration on the railroads. CIRB, an independent agency, has not yet said if it will accept the government's order. CN began moving some freight early on 23 August, but the new strike order issued soon by the union today could disrupt those plans. The union has also challenged the constitutionality of MacKinnon's order regarding CPKC operations pending the outcome of a new ruling by the CIRB. CPKC's rail fleet remains parked in the meantime. CPKC said late Thursday it was disappointed in the minister's decision and sought to meet with CIRB to discuss resumption of service. CPKC said the union "refused to discuss any resumption of service, and instead indicated that they wish to make submissions to challenge the constitutionality of the Minister's direction." A case management meeting with CIRB occurred last night and another was scheduled for early today. Hearings are also underway to address preliminary issues, the union said. But the Teamsters said it was prepared to appeal the case to federal court if necessary. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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