Asia-Pacific faces $815bn/yr green financing shortfall

Asia-Pacific holds significant investment opportunities in the energy transition, but obstacles such as insufficient public funding, lack of regulation and investment risks have resulted in a financing shortfall in the region.

The Asia-Pacific region needs at least $1.1 trillion/yr in climate financing, but actual investment falls short by at least $815bn/yr, said Singapore's ambassador for climate action Ravi Menon at a conference in Singapore last week, referencing data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

There is existing green funding in the region such as from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which estimated its investments amounted to $10.7bn in 2023, and bilateral arrangements like the $600mn India-Japan fund, established by India's National Investment and Infrastructure Fund and Japan Bank for International Co-operation in October 2023.

But this is insufficient, especially as the region's energy demand is only set to rise further. Energy demand in Asia is growing by 2.9pc/yr, the highest of any region in the world, said Menon. Renewables such as solar and wind are now more cost-competitive than fossil fuels, but the region needs more grid connectivity and capacity to make renewable energy a viable option. Building transmission lines and energy storage in the region alone will cost about $2.4 trillion over the next 10 years, added Menon.

Obstacles to capital flows

Total energy investment worldwide is expected to exceed $3 trillion in 2024, with about $2 trillion going to clean technologies and slightly over $1 trillion toward fossil fuels, according to the IEA's World Energy Investment 2024 report.

Fossil fuel financing by the world's 60 largest banks rose to $705bn in 2023, up by 4.8pc from $673bn in 2022, with the rise largely driven by LNG financing.

The continued investments in fossil fuels and fossil fuel-based technologies will lead to more carbon-intensive infrastructure, divert capital from clean energy alternatives and undermine climate targets, derailing Asia-Pacific from its energy transition goals.

Emerging economies typically have "many developmental needs" to take care of, hence public financing in these countries cannot shoulder the overall trajectory of growth of energy transition financing, said the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis' (IEEFA) sustainable finance and climate risk research lead Shantanu Srivastava at the IEEFA Energy Finance 2024 conference earlier this month. Many smaller economies rely on financing from multilateral development banks (MDBs), but this comes in "bits and pieces" and with many strings attached, he added.

It is hence essential to bring in private capital, but the region faces challenges in attracting private investments. The lack of a sound climate information architecture hampers accurate assessment and tracking of climate risks, which impedes investors' ability to make decisions and prevents the scale-up of climate finance, according to the IMF.

Other measurable risks — such as political risk, credit risk, and foreign exchange risk — often significantly raise the risk premium of investments into the region. Investors tend to expect higher returns on investments with higher risk premiums, but there are limited investment opportunities available which would provide such returns and this prevents foreign capital from scaling, according to Srivastava.

Insufficient regulatory and government measures in the region as well as the inconsistency of existing ones also deter private investors, as these increase project execution risks. Policy continuity and long-term visibility of what the country is going to do is essential as a "policy flip-flop" deters investor confidence, Srivastava said.

Tools to attract more climate finance

Blended finance is necessary to mobilise private capital for Asia's energy transition, according to Menon. Governments and development finance institutions could provide concessional or risk capital in the form of grants and limited guarantees, while MDBs can provide technical assistance in the form of development expertise, capacity building and institutional support, he said.

Finance can also be encouraged through sovereign sustainable bonds, which can stimulate local sustainable bond markets by setting long-term price benchmarks, boosting liquidity, and serving as models for private issuers, according to IEEFA. The issuance of these bonds also signal a dedicated government commitment to sustainability goals and can drive the development of a robust and transparent regulatory environment, IEEFA added. This is crucial for the long-term growth and stability of the region's sustainable bond markets, which is essential for boosting investors' confidence.

Another method is through revenue generation tools, such as carbon pricing and carbon taxes, according to the Financing Just Transition Through Emission Trading Systems report released earlier this month by think-tank Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI). Carbon pricing sends a strong signal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and indicates the government's intent to intensify efforts related to energy transition, which encourages private capital flow, stated the ASPI report. Carbon pricing also has the potential to generate substantial revenue, which can be allocated to climate funds to support low-carbon technology innovation and aid enterprises in making green investments, to aid low-carbon transition efforts, the ASPI report added.

By Joey Chan