Global energy mix evolves as electricity demand surges

Climate change is becoming a bigger factor behind electrification, but cleaner energy use is slowing the growth in global emissions, writes Georgia Gratton

A substantial increase in electricity demand — boosted by extreme weather — drove an overall rise in global energy demand in 2024, lifting it well above the average pace of increase in recent years, OECD energy watchdog the IEA announced this week. This led to a rise in natural gas consumption, although renewables and nuclear shouldered the majority of the increase in demand, leaving oil's share of total energy demand below 30pc for the first time.

Global energy demand rose by 2.2pc in 2024 compared with 2023 — higher than the average demand increase of 1.3pc/yr between 2013 and 2023 — according to the Paris-based agency's Global Energy Review. Global electricity consumption increased faster, by 4.3pc, driven by record-high temperatures — that led to increased cooling needs — as well as growing industrial consumption, the electrification of transport and the rapid growth of power-hungry data centres needed to support the boom in artificial intelligence, the IEA says.

Renewables and nuclear covered the majority of growth in electricity demand, at 80pc, while supply of gas-fired power generation "also increased steadily", the IEA says. New renewable power installations reached about 700GW in 2024 — a new high. Solar power led the pack, rising by about 550GW last year.

The power generation and overall energy mix is changing, as economies shift towards electrification. The rate of increase in coal demand slowed to 1.1pc in 2024, around half the pace seen in 2023. Coal remained the single biggest source of power generation in 2024, at 35pc, but renewable power sources and nuclear together made up 41pc of total generation last year, IEA data show. Nuclear power use is expected to hit its highest ever this year, the agency says.

And "growth in global oil demand slowed markedly in 2024", the IEA says, rising by 0.8pc compared with 1.9pc in 2023. A rise in electric vehicle (EV) purchases was a key contributor to the drop in oil demand for road transport, and this offset "a significant proportion" of the rise in oil consumption for aviation and petrochemicals, the IEA says.

Blowing hot and coal

Much of the growth in coal consumption last year was down to "intense heatwaves" — particularly in China and India, the IEA found. These "contributed more than 90pc of the total annual increase in coal consumption globally", for cooling needs. The IEA repeatedly noted the significant effect that extreme weather in 2024 had on energy systems and demand patterns. Last year was the hottest ever recorded, beating the previous record set in 2023, and for CO2 emissions, "weather effects" made up about half of the 2024 increase, the watchdog found.

"Weather effects contributed about 15pc of the overall increase in global energy demand," according to the IEA. Global cooling degree days were 6pc higher on the year in 2024, and 20pc higher than the 2000-20 average. But the "continued rapid adoption of clean energy technologies" restricted the rise in energy-related CO2 emissions, which fell to 0.8pc in 2024 from 1.2pc in 2023, the IEA says. Energy-related CO2 emissions — including flaring — still hit a record high of 37.8bn t in 2024, but the rise in emissions was lower than global GDP growth. Key "clean energy technologies" — solar, wind and nuclear power, EVs and heat pumps — collectively now prevent about 2.6bn t/yr CO2 of emissions, the IEA says.

But there remains an emissions divide between advanced and developing economies. "The majority of emissions growth in 2024 came from emerging and developing economies other than China," the agency says, while advanced economies such as the UK and EU cut emissions last year and continue to push ahead with decarbonisation.