Global energy mix evolves as electricity demand surges

Spanish Market: Coal, Crude oil, Electricity, Emissions, Natural gas
28/03/25

Climate change is becoming a bigger factor behind electrification, but cleaner energy use is slowing the growth in global emissions, writes Georgia Gratton

A substantial increase in electricity demand — boosted by extreme weather — drove an overall rise in global energy demand in 2024, lifting it well above the average pace of increase in recent years, OECD energy watchdog the IEA announced this week. This led to a rise in natural gas consumption, although renewables and nuclear shouldered the majority of the increase in demand, leaving oil's share of total energy demand below 30pc for the first time.

Global energy demand rose by 2.2pc in 2024 compared with 2023 — higher than the average demand increase of 1.3pc/yr between 2013 and 2023 — according to the Paris-based agency's Global Energy Review. Global electricity consumption increased faster, by 4.3pc, driven by record-high temperatures — that led to increased cooling needs — as well as growing industrial consumption, the electrification of transport and the rapid growth of power-hungry data centres needed to support the boom in artificial intelligence, the IEA says.

Renewables and nuclear covered the majority of growth in electricity demand, at 80pc, while supply of gas-fired power generation "also increased steadily", the IEA says. New renewable power installations reached about 700GW in 2024 — a new high. Solar power led the pack, rising by about 550GW last year.

The power generation and overall energy mix is changing, as economies shift towards electrification. The rate of increase in coal demand slowed to 1.1pc in 2024, around half the pace seen in 2023. Coal remained the single biggest source of power generation in 2024, at 35pc, but renewable power sources and nuclear together made up 41pc of total generation last year, IEA data show. Nuclear power use is expected to hit its highest ever this year, the agency says.

And "growth in global oil demand slowed markedly in 2024", the IEA says, rising by 0.8pc compared with 1.9pc in 2023. A rise in electric vehicle (EV) purchases was a key contributor to the drop in oil demand for road transport, and this offset "a significant proportion" of the rise in oil consumption for aviation and petrochemicals, the IEA says.

Blowing hot and coal

Much of the growth in coal consumption last year was down to "intense heatwaves" — particularly in China and India, the IEA found. These "contributed more than 90pc of the total annual increase in coal consumption globally", for cooling needs. The IEA repeatedly noted the significant effect that extreme weather in 2024 had on energy systems and demand patterns. Last year was the hottest ever recorded, beating the previous record set in 2023, and for CO2 emissions, "weather effects" made up about half of the 2024 increase, the watchdog found.

"Weather effects contributed about 15pc of the overall increase in global energy demand," according to the IEA. Global cooling degree days were 6pc higher on the year in 2024, and 20pc higher than the 2000-20 average. But the "continued rapid adoption of clean energy technologies" restricted the rise in energy-related CO2 emissions, which fell to 0.8pc in 2024 from 1.2pc in 2023, the IEA says. Energy-related CO2 emissions — including flaring — still hit a record high of 37.8bn t in 2024, but the rise in emissions was lower than global GDP growth. Key "clean energy technologies" — solar, wind and nuclear power, EVs and heat pumps — collectively now prevent about 2.6bn t/yr CO2 of emissions, the IEA says.

But there remains an emissions divide between advanced and developing economies. "The majority of emissions growth in 2024 came from emerging and developing economies other than China," the agency says, while advanced economies such as the UK and EU cut emissions last year and continue to push ahead with decarbonisation.

Global energy suppy by fuel					EJ
				Growth ±%
	2024	2023	2022	24/23	23/22

Total	648	634	622	2.2	1.8
Renewables	97	92	89	5.8	3.1
Nuclear	31	30	29	3.7	2.2
Natural gas	149	145	144	2.7	0.7
Oil	193	192	188	0.8	1.9
Coal	177	175	172	1.2	2.0
Global power generation by fuel					TWh
				Growth ±%
	2024	2023	2022	24/23	23/22

Total	31,153	29,897	29,153	4.2	2.6
Renewables	9,992	9,074	8,643	10.0	5.0
Nuclear	2,844	2,743	2,684	3.7	2.2
Natural gas	6,793	6,622	6,526	2.6	1.5
Oil	738	762	801	-3.2	-4.8
Coal	10,736	10,645	10,452	0.9	1.8
Global power generation by country					TWh
				Growth ±%
	2024	2023	2022	24/23	23/22

World	31,153	29,897	29,153	4.2	2.6
US	4,556	4,419	4,473	3.1	-1.2
EU	2,769	2,718	2,792	1.9	-2.6
China	10,205	9,564	8,947	6.7	6.9
India	2,059	1,958	1,814	5.2	7.9
Global CO2 emissions by country					mn t
				Growth ±%
	2024	2023	2022	24/23	23/22

World	37,566	37,270	36,819	0.8	1.2
US	4,546	4,567	4,717	-0.5	-3.2
EU	2,401	2,455	2,683	-2.2	-8.5
China	12,603	12,552	12,013	0.4	4.5
India	2,987	2,836	2,691	5.3	5.4
*includes industrial process emissions
— IEA

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03/04/25

Mexico, Canada sidestep latest Trump tariffs: Update

Adds Canada reaction Mexico City, 3 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's sweeping tariff measures largely spared Mexico and Canada from additional penalties, as the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA) will continue to exempt most commerce, including Mexico's energy exports. According to Trump's tariff announcement on Wednesday , all foreign imports into the US will be subject to a minimum 10pc tax starting on 5 April, with levels as high as 34pc for China and 20pc for the EU. Mexico and Canada are the US' closest trading partners and have seen tariffs imposed and then postponed several times this year, but remained mostly exempt from Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs. Energy and "certain minerals that are not available in the US" imported from all other countries also will be exempt from the tariffs. Trump also did not reimpose punitive tariffs on energy and other imports from Canada and Mexico. All products covered by the USMCA, which include energy commodities, are exempt as well. Yet steel and aluminum, cars, trucks and auto parts from Mexico and Canada remain subject to separate tariffs. Steel and aluminum imports are subject to 25pc, in effect since 12 March. The 25pc tariff on all imported cars and trucks will go into effect on Thursday, whereas a 25pc tax on auto parts will go into effect on 3 May. Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum this morning emphasized the "good relationship" and "mutual respect" between Mexico and the US, which she said was key to Trump's decision to prioritize the USMCA over potential further tariffs on Mexican imports. "So far, we have managed to reach a relatively more privileged position when it comes to these tariffs," Sheinbaum said. "Many of our industries are now exempt from tariffs. We aim to reach a better position regarding steel, aluminum and auto parts exports, too." The Mexican peso strengthened by 1.5pc against the US dollar in the wake of the tariff announcement, to Ps19.96/$1 by late morning on Thursday from Ps20.25/$1 on Wednesday. Mexico has not placed any tariffs on imports from the US, which may have eliminated the need for the US to reciprocate with tariffs. "In contrast to what will apply to 185 global economies, Mexico remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs," Mexico's economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said. Mexico exported 500,000 b/d of crude to the US last year, making the US by far the most important export market for the nation's commodity. Mexico also imports the majority of its motor fuels and LPG from the US. If US won't lead, Canada will: Carney To the north, Canada's prime minister says the US' latest trade actions will "rupture" the global economy. "The global economy is fundamentally different today than it was yesterday," said prime minister Mark Carney on Thursday while announcing retaliatory tariffs on auto imports from the US. Canada is matching the US with 25pc tariffs on all vehicles imported from the US that are not compliant with the USMCA, referred to as CUSMA in Canada. But unlike the US tariffs, which took effect Thursday, Canada's will not include auto parts. Automaker Stellantis has informed Unifor Local 444 that it is shutting down the Windsor Assembly Plant in Ontario for two weeks starting on 7 April, with the primary driver being Trump's tariffs. The closure will affect 3,600 workers. Trump on 2 April unveiled a chart of dozens of countries the US is targeting with new tariffs, but that lengthy list may also represent opportunity for Canada and Mexico, who have already been dealing with US trade action. "The world is waking up today to a reality that Canada has been living with for months," Canadian Chamber of Commerce president Candace Laing said, a reality which Carney views as an opportunity for his country. "Canada is ready to take a leadership role in building a coalition of like-minded countries who share our values," said Carney. "If the United States no longer wants to lead, Canada will." By Cas Biekmann and Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

CMA CGM LNG bunker demand up 78pc in 2024

03/04/25

CMA CGM LNG bunker demand up 78pc in 2024

New York, 3 April (Argus) — France-based shipping company CMA CGM increased its consumption of LNG for bunkering by 78pc in 2024 compared with 2023 as part of its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The company consumed a total of 9.2mn tonnes (t) of marine fuel last year. LNG accounted for 10pc of total demand, or 962,200t of very low sulphur fuel oil equivalent (VLSFOe) up from 539,200t VLSFOe, or 7pc, in 2023. CMA CGM attributed the overall rise in marine fuel consumption to disruptions in the Red Sea, where geopolitical tensions forced its vessels to reroute around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. The company has established LNG bunker supply partnerships with TotalEnergies and Shell, securing fuel at key ports including Singapore, Rotterdam in the Netherlands, Fos-sur-Mer in France, and Shanghai in China. CMA CGM has also invested in French firm Waga Energy, which produces biomethane from landfill gas. The company acknowledges methane slip — unburned methane emissions during combustion — is a key challenge with LNG. To mitigate this, CMA CGM has outfitted select vessels with systems that recirculate and combust leaked gas. It is also implementing high-pressure gas injection and is modifying engine intake valves to ensure more complete combustion. Looking ahead, CMA CGM plans to expand its dual-fuel fleet significantly by 2029. It will add 153 such vessels, including 129 that can run on LNG and 24 powered on methanol. In addition to LNG and methanol, CMA CGM is increasing its use of shore power. The number of its vessels equipped with shore-side electric power connections rose to 116 in 2024, representing 38pc of its owned fleet, up from 67 vessels (26pc) in 2023. CMA CGM also utilizes biofuels for bunkering, though demand declined to 50,900t in 2024, from 76,800t in 2023 and 99,800t in 2022, representing just 1pc of its total marine fuel use. In northwest Europe, LNG carried a $144/t premium over VLSFO, in March, with VLSFO averaging $485/t, according to Argus data. Bio-LNG and B30 biofuel there were priced at premiums of $396/t and $338/t, respectively. By Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ eight to speed up unwinding cuts from May: Update

03/04/25

Opec+ eight to speed up unwinding cuts from May: Update

Adds details throughout Dubai, 3 April (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ crude producers, in a surprise move, today agreed to speed up plans to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of production cuts by increasing their collective output target for May by 411,000 b/d — three times the rise originally planned. "In view of the continuing healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook… the eight participating countries will implement a production adjustment of 411,000 b/d, equivalent to three monthly increments, in May 2025," the group said. Front month Ice Brent futures fell by around $1/bl to $70.50/bl in response to the news, and slipped further to below $70/bl later before recovering slightly. The eight countries ꟷ Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan ꟷ last month decided to proceed with a plan to begin gradually unwinding the 2.2mn b/d of production cuts from April over 18 months. The original plan was to see their combined output target rise by 137,000 b/d on a monthly basis until September 2026. Although it is unclear whether the group will revert back to 137,000 b/d increments after May, this change should, theoretically, mean that the eight will return the last of the 2.2mn b/d in July 2026, rather than September. But the volume of oil that actually returns to the market each month will probably be less than the monthly target increases as all of the eight countries, bar Algeria, have past overproduction which they have committed to compensating for over the months ahead. The group said today that the decision to raise output targets by 411,000 b/d for May, versus 137,000 b/d, would also "provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation". The seven countries with overproduction to compensate for submitted their updated plans to the Opec secretariat two weeks ago, outlining how they plan to deliver that compensation. It is unclear whether today's decision has rendered those plans moot, but it should allow for at least some of the countries to clear more of that they owe next month. Full implementation of the compensation cuts has become increasingly important for the group as it looks to balance market expectations with internal group dynamics. Frustration has built up among some members of the group towards the likes of Iraq and Kazakhstan which have regularly flouted their quotas. What is most surprising about the move is timing, coming the day after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new global tariffs on a range of imports. That triggered an immediate sell-off in oil futures and stock markets over fears of deteriorating demand in an escalating trade war. But the tariff announcements did not appear to be at the forefront of Opec+ eight minds, with one delegate expressing scepticism that the Trump administration's tariffs were here to stay. The impact is unlikely to be as severe as many fear, they said. Instead, the decision primarily factored in the pick up in oil demand that typically comes with the start of the summer in the northern hemisphere. "A big part of this 411,000 b/d will go to meet that additional demand," one delegate said. Additionally, the move should also enhance internal group dynamics, given the frustration that had been building among some in the group prior to last month's decision to start the unwinding in April, while at the same time getting the thumbs up from the US president who had already called on Opec and its allies to "bring down the cost of oil," something it could only achieve by raising output. Trump has said that he will be visiting Saudi Arabia sometime in May, when the group of eight countries begins to accelerate the return of those barrels. By Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash

03/04/25

Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash

Washington, 3 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump does not intend to back down from his plan for sweeping import tariffs that have already caused a sell-off in global equity markets and some commodities, administration officials say. The tariffs — which will start at 10pc for most imports on 5 April before steeper country-specific tariffs take effect on 9 April, with exceptions for some energy and mineral imports — have caused key stock indexes to drop by as much as 5pc, with even larger declines in crude futures, as investors brace for lower growth and a higher chance of a recession. Trump earlier today defended the tariffs, as he prepared to leave the White House for a dinner tonight at a golf tournament at one of his resorts in Florida. "THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING," Trump wrote in a social media post before major stock markets opened. Trump's cabinet has downplayed the short-term price effect of the tariffs, which they say will boost economic growth in the US and cause a resurgence in domestic manufacturing. US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said he does not think there is "any chance" that Trump will rescind the tariffs, and said Trump will only begin to work on new trade deals once a country has "really, really changed their ways" on trade practices. "Trump is going to stand firm because he is reordering global trade," Lutnick said today in an interview with CNN. "Make no mistake about it, America has been exploited, and he is done allowing America to be exploited." Other administration officials have suggested a greater potential for lower tariffs in the near-term. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent has encouraged world leaders to "take a deep breath" and not to "panic" because the tariff rates that Trump announced were a "ceiling" that might come down, so long as there was no retaliation. "Don't immediately retaliate, let's see where this goes, because if you retaliate, that's how we get escalation," Bessent said on 2 April during interview on Fox News. The tariffs have caused bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill, but so far legislative action has been symbolic and unlikely to become law. The US Senate, in a bipartisan vote on 2 April, approved a joint resolution that would end the justification Trump has used to put tariffs on Canada. US senators Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) introduced a bill today to eliminate most new presidential tariffs after 60 days without approval by the US Congress. Democrats say the tariffs will force consumers to pay far more on everyday goods, with revenue offsetting Republican plans to provide more than $5 trillion in tax cuts. "Donald Trump is using tariffs in the dumbest way imaginable. In fact, Donald Trump slapped tariffs on penguins and not on Putin," US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) said today, in reference to Trump's decision to put a 10pc tariff on an island populated only with penguins. Trump has claimed his country-specific tariffs are "reciprocal" even though they have no relation to the tariffs each country charges on US imports. Instead, Trump's tariffs were calculated based on a universal equation that is set at half of the country's trade deficit with the US, divided by the country's imports from the US, with a minimum tariff rate of 10pc. US major trading partners are preparing for retaliatory tariffs. Canada's prime minister Mark Carney said he would respond to Trump's tariffs on automobiles, which took effect today, by "matching the US approach" and imposing a 25pc tariff on auto imports that do not comply with the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. China said it was preparing unspecified countermeasures to US tariffs that would be set at 54pc. Trump's cabinet today dismissed the market reaction to the tariffs. Stock markets are going through a "short-term adjustment" but the tariffs will ultimately result in more growth and additional investments, US Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler said today in an interview on Fox News "The gravy train is over for the globalist elites," said Loeffler, who previously was a top executive at US exchange operator ICE. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US services grow at slowest pace in 9 months: ISM

03/04/25

US services grow at slowest pace in 9 months: ISM

Houston, 3 April (Argus) — The US services sector expanded in March at the slowest pace since last June, with orders, export orders and employment sliding into contraction, as companies braced for tariffs threatened by the US administration. The headline purchasing managers' index (PMI) slowed to 50.8 in March from 53.5 the prior month, according to the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) latest survey on activity in the biggest part of the economy. New orders slowed to 50.4 from 52.2, and employment fell to 46.2, showing contraction, from 53.9 the prior month. The breakeven threshold between growth and contraction is 50. New export orders fell to 45.8 in March from 52.1 the prior month. Imports rose to 52.6 from 49.6. The weakening services gauge follows ISM's manufacturing PMI, reported on 1 April, that showed factory activity fell to 49 in March, the first contraction in three months, which followed more than two years of contraction. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNOW tracker on Thursday forecast a 2.8pc annual contraction in US gross domestic product in the first quarter, which will be reported at the end of April. Services business activity/production grew to 55.9 last month from 54.4 the prior month. The price index fell to 60.9 from 62.6, showing slowing price growth. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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