With Moroccan millers buying more wheat from Black Sea outlets than ever before, EU sellers’ market share could come come under more pressure this current June-May marketing year and into 2025-26.
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- Moroccan importers can now buy Black Sea wheat and still benefit from a financial rebate which typically rises with EU prices
- High EU prices will drive up the state rebate and encourage importers to buy even greater volumes of cheaper Black Sea wheat
- EU sellers’ market share could shrink, while Ukrainian and Argentinian wheat could disappear from Morocco altogether
- The Moroccan market could return to a more seasonal buying pattern in 2025-26 if local production recovers
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