Agricultural commodity market analysis & forecast
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Spain poised for firmer cross Atlantic corn imports
Exporters in the Americas could grow their share in Spain's feed grain market in 2024-25 due to reduced supply from the EU and Black Sea region.
Video - 24/09/05Watch now: Agricultural commodity market analysis and forecast
Understand the drivers of the grains, oilseeds & vegoils markets
WhitePaper - 24/08/02Australian wheat seeks to capitalise on export markets shift
Black Sea wheat has outshone Australian product in recent months, but North American production could pose fiercer competition than last year.
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Ukraine agri-exports decline on the month
Ukraine agri-exports decline on the month
Kyiv, 2 December (Argus) — Agricultural exports from Ukraine fell in November as an increase in shipments of corn and sunflower oil (SFO) failed to offset lower exports of wheat, barley, soybeans and rapeseed, customs data show. Ukraine exported about 5.48mn t of grains, oilseeds and by-products in November, down from 6.01mn t in October but slightly up from 5.46mn t in November 2023. Exports by all transports fell in November. But in relative terms, shipments from the deep-sea ports of Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk (POC) continued to increase, reaching around 82pc of Ukraine's total agricultural exports. This is up from 80pc in October and only 50pc in November 2023. Agricultural exports from Danube river ports fell to 362,740t in November, from 495,225t shipped in October and 1.54mn t in November 2023. The share of products exported from Danube ports has declined to 7pc, down from 8pc in October and 28pc in November 2023. Grains Ukraine shipped 3.86mn t of grains in November, down from 3.92mn t in October, but up from 3.64mn t in November 2023 (see chart). Corn exports continued to rise, to 2.6mn t in the reporting month from 1.93mn t in October and 2.33mn t a year earlier. Turkey remained the largest buyer of Ukrainian corn in November, followed by Spain, Italy and Egypt, according to customs export declarations. In contrast, wheat exports fell to 1.11mn t from 1.65mn t in October and 1.13mn t a year earlier. Spain remained the largest buyer, while Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Tunisia made up the top five. Barley exports declined to 157,382t last month, down from 350,055t in October and 181,368t a year earlier. Libya was the main buyer, followed by Cyprus and the United Arab Emirates. Oilseeds Ukraine exported 1.62mn t of oilseeds, vegetable oils and meals in November, down from 2.09mn t in October and 1.82mn t a year earlier. Soybean exports fell sharply to 415,284t, from 715,697t in October and 505,832t in November last year (see chart). Pakistan was the largest buyer of Ukrainian soybeans, followed by Egypt, the Netherlands and Turkey. Ukraine's rapeseed exports fell to 290,583t last month from 475,214t in October and 349,495t a year earlier. This brought Ukraine's total rapeseed exports to about 2.7mn t since the start of the 2024-25 marketing year (July-June). Exports of sunflower seed (SFS) amounted to only 1,242t in November, down sharply from 16,276t in October and 38,584t a year earlier. Exports of sunflower meal (SFM) decreased to 356,553t in the reporting month, down from 383,643t in the previous month, and from 387,397t a year earlier. China was the largest buyer of Ukrainian SFM, followed by France, Poland and Egypt. In contrast, sunflower oil (SFO) exports rose to 508,650t, from 458,260t in October and 506,218t a year earlier. India was the main destination for Ukrainian SFO in October. Spain, Italy, Iraq and Romania made up the top five. By Alexey Yeromin Ukraine grain exports mn t Ukraine oilseed, vegoil and meal exports t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US weekly soybean sales up, corn and wheat down
US weekly soybean sales up, corn and wheat down
London, 29 November (Argus) — US weekly net export sales of soybeans rose in the week ending 21 November, while those of corn and wheat were down from the previous seven days, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Soybeans US weekly soybean net export sales reached 2.49mn t, rising on the week and exceeding the previous four-week average. Total commitments of the 2024-25 crop so far this season (September-August) reached 33.87mn t, compared with 30.88mn t at the same time last year. So far, total commitments account for 68pc of the US' projected soybean exports for 2024-25, according to the USDA's forecast, broadly in line with 67pc at this point last year. China booked 1.09mn t of US soybeans last week, with 306,000t of this volume having switched from a previously unknown destination. Outstanding sales of US soybeans to China stood at 4.32mn t, with total commitments to the country — exports and outstanding sales — having reached 15.81mn t since the start of the season. Grains US weekly corn net export sales declined by 29pc to 1.06mn t in the week ending 21 November. But total commitments since the start of the season in September reached 32.46mn t, or 55pc of the USDA's forecast 2024-25 exports, up by 8mn t and 13 percentage points, respectively, on the year. Export sales to Mexico rose by 405,200t in the week ending 21 November, to reach total commitments of 13.31mn t, up on the year by 1.31mn t. Of the total volume, 8.21mn t had yet to be shipped as of 21 November. Total commitments of US current-crop corn to China stood at 26,400t, a sharp drop from 1.31mn t a year earlier. As for wheat, weekly net export sales declined by a third to 366,800t in the week ending 21 November, pushing total commitments of US 2024-25 crop US wheat to 15.17mn t, up by 2.48mn t on the year. This represents 68pc of the USDA's forecast total US wheat exports for 2024-25, nearly in line with the 66pc of last season's crop committed a year earlier. Meanwhile, US weekly net export sales of 2024-25 crop sorghum were unchanged on the week at 121,200t. Total commitments reached 1.15mn t, down sharply from 3.47mn t of the previous season's crop committed a year earlier. By Anna Sneidermane Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Sweden extends EU ETS 2 application
Sweden extends EU ETS 2 application
London, 28 November (Argus) — The European Commission has approved the application of the new emissions trading system for road transport and buildings (EU ETS 2) to additional sectors in Sweden. Sweden will unilaterally apply the new system to emissions from freight and passenger railway transport, non-commercial leisure boats, airport and harbour off-road machinery, and fuel combustion in agriculture, forestry and fishing. The extension means additional carbon allowances will be issued to the country in 2027, on the basis of emissions from the activities listed calculated at 1.68mn t of CO2 equivalent. Sweden must monitor and report emissions from the additional sectors from 1 January. The EU ETS 2 is due to launch fully in 2027, and will apply in its basic form to fuel combustion in buildings, road transport and small industry not covered by the existing EU ETS, in all the bloc's member states plus Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. The commission approved similar unilateral extensions of the system's scope in the Netherlands and Austria in September. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Blenders credit extension stalled in US Senate
Blenders credit extension stalled in US Senate
New York, 22 November (Argus) — A push for US lawmakers to extend various biofuel incentives before the end of the year has met resistance in the Senate. A growing coalition of biofuel and soybean groups has endorsed extending for one year a $1/USG federal tax credit for blenders of biomass-based diesel, which would otherwise expire after December and be replaced by the Inflation Reduction Act's carbon-intensity-based "45Z" credit. But lawmakers have various other priorities in the final weeks of this legislative session, and a staffer with the Democratic-controlled US Senate Finance Committee confirmed that prospects for a deal to extend biofuel tax credits are slim. "Republicans have showed very little interest in working with Democrats on much of anything related to tax," said Ryan Carey, chief communications advisor and deputy policy director at the Committee on Finance. "Their focus is primarily on the next Congress, when they're going to attempt to pass an extension of the first Trump tax law on a partisan basis." Another Senate office acknowledged on background that it is "unlikely" Congress will come to any major tax deal before the end of the year. Congress has other priorities for its brief lame duck session before president-elect Donald Trump begins his second term, including government funding, the federal debt limit, and a new farm bill. Tax policy could still fit into an end-of-year package, with some less controversial tax provisions and a bipartisan business tax proposal backed by Senate Finance Committee chair Ron Wyden (D-Oregon) still under discussion. But prolonging the biodiesel blenders credit — plus other biofuel credits benefiting sustainable aviation fuel and cellulosic fuels that some groups have also pushed to extend — appears to be a tougher lift. With Trump in the White House and Republicans set to control both chambers of Congress, Republicans are now preparing major tax policy legislation next year to prolong tax cuts passed during Trump's first term that are set to expire at the end of 2025. Lawmakers are likely to look at repealing some Inflation Reduction Act clean energy subsidies to help offset the cost of that proposal. Republicans on the House tax-writing committee this week requested public input on the 45Z credit specifically, a signal that they are at least open to modifications — and are already looking to tax policy next year. Biofuel subsidies are seen by analysts and lobbyists as less likely targets for repeal than other Inflation Reduction Act credits, given support for the industry among farm state lawmakers. But the request-for-information this week suggested that Republicans are wary of elements of the current 45Z credit and could support changes that benefit agribusiness. Even biofuel groups generally supportive of the 45Z credit's structure have been frustrated by President Joe Biden's administration, which has yet to issue guidance clarifying how it will calculate the carbon intensities of different fuels and feedstocks. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.