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Spain poised for firmer cross Atlantic corn imports
Exporters in the Americas could grow their share in Spain's feed grain market in 2024-25 due to reduced supply from the EU and Black Sea region.
Video - 05/09/24Watch now: Agricultural commodity market analysis and forecast
Understand the drivers of the grains, oilseeds & vegoils markets
WhitePaper - 02/08/24Australian wheat seeks to capitalise on export markets shift
Black Sea wheat has outshone Australian product in recent months, but North American production could pose fiercer competition than last year.
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US, Norway give $110mn to Brazil Amazon Fund
US, Norway give $110mn to Brazil Amazon Fund
Rio de Janeiro, 18 November (Argus) — The US and Norway will contribute a combined $110mn to Brazil's Amazon Fund to reduce emissions from deforestation and promote sustainable forest management. President Joe Biden announced the US' $50mn contribution to the fund from the Amazonian city of Manaus on Sunday. He is the first sitting US president to visit the Amazon rainforest. This adds to the $50mn disbursed by the US to the fund earlier this year, Biden said. Norway will contribute $60mn, citing a 31pc decrease in Amazon deforestation achieved from August 2023-July 2024. "Brazil's success in reducing deforestation is clear proof of the ambitions and determination of the Lula government," Norway's prime minister Jonas Gahr Store said from Rio de Janeiro. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has pledged zero deforestation by 2030. Norway was the first country to contribute to the Amazon Fund, which was set up during Lula's first term in 2008. It was suspended in 2019 during the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, a climate skeptic, and reinstated when Lula returned to power in 2023. Projects worth a record R882mn ($151.6mn) have been approved so far this year according to Brazil's Bndes development bank, which manages the Fund. By Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Lower Mississippi draft restrictions lifted
Lower Mississippi draft restrictions lifted
Houston, 11 November (Argus) — The US Coast Guard (USGC) removed draught restrictions from the lower Mississippi River on 8 November, after several rain washed across much of the Midwestern US. Draft restrictions were completely lifted for north and southbound barges on the lower Mississippi River between Tiptonville, Tennessee, to Tunica, Louisiana. Approximately 2-8 inches of rain were reported in Illinois and Missouri in the last seven days, adding around 14 inches to the lower Mississippi River, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). St Louis, Missiouri was at a high of 11.5 inches above baseline on 11 November, up from a low of -1.5ft on 1 November. The USGC has had draft restrictions in place since August, with the river system receiving a short reprieve in early October after rain from Hurricane Helene poured into the US river system. But low water levels and restrictions returned about two weeks later. Prior to recent precipitation, drafts were restricted to 10-10.5ft for southbound barges and tows could not not be greater than 6-7 barges wide. Northbound barges could not draft greater than 9.5ft, tows could not be more than six barges wide, and only four barges could be loaded. High water levels are expected to remain through November, according to NWS but barge carriers have said that water levels will slip quickly if no additional rain falls along the upper Mississippi River. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Biodiesel to drive 2025 palm oil prices: IPOC
Biodiesel to drive 2025 palm oil prices: IPOC
Singapore, 8 November (Argus) — Palm oil prices are likely to be supported by tight supplies in 2025, as Indonesia is slated to begin a 40pc biodiesel blending mandate (B40) and crude palm oil (CPO) production growth is slowing, market experts said at the 20th Indonesian Palm Oil Conference and 2025 Price Outlook ( IPOC 2024 ) in Nusa Dua, Bali. Higher blending mandates and tighter supplies may keep CPO futures above 5,000 ringgit/t ($1,130/t) during the first half of 2025, as could firmer lunar new year and Ramzan demand between January-March, Godrej International director Dorab Mistry said. Indonesia plans to implement B40 in 2025, according to its minister of bioenergy Edi Wibowo, before moving to B50 before 2030. If Indonesia enforces B40 as planned, palm oil prices may rally an additional 10-15pc over current prices in the first quarter of 2024, Oil World analyst Thomas Mielke said. But industry experts were sceptical that Indonesia's B40 will materialise, citing current tight supply of CPO and a relatively wide palm oil-gas oil (POGO) spread, which would exert more pressure on government subsidies. Indonesia subsidises biodiesel producers for the difference between gasoil and biodiesel production cost, using funds accrued from export levies on palm oil products. With crude oil prices possibly constrained, higher subsidies will be required to fill the gap, according to consultancy Transgraph's Nagaraj Meda. Subsidies of $5.6bn, $4.76bn, and $3.53bn will be required should Ice Brent crude prices hit $68.50/bl, $75/bl, and $85/bl respectively under B40, Meda said. Under the current B35 programme, biodiesel subsidies have cost the Indonesian government $2.56bn so far in 2024. The export levy structure — which was adjusted in October — is insufficient to fund a B40 programme. "The export levy and tax structure will need revision urgently", Mistry said. Soy soars Palm oil output will grow moderately in 2024-25, while production of rival soybean oil will be higher, the conference heard. Mielke expects palm oil production to increase by 2.3mn t, and soybean oil production to rise by 3.3-3.5mn t. Sunflower and rapeseed oil production will fall by 3.8mn t in 2024-25, he forecasts. Glenauk Economics director Julian McGill said high palm oil prices will drive US biofuels demand towards soybean oil, driving some correction in palm oil prices. Elevated CPO prices are making palm oil mill effluent (Pome) and used cooking oil (UCO) uncompetitive in the EU and US as biofuels feedstocks, reducing demand, he said. Palm oil prices are now well above those for waste oils, which tends to tighten supplies of UCO in southeast Asia as there is less incentive for restaurants and factories to sell their oil. Assuming gasoil prices do not increase, McGill said fundamentals are not enough to support current palm oil prices. He sees the fob Indonesia price returning to $1,000/t before the end of 2024, but said CPO futures on the Bursa Malaysia exchange will remain between $950-1,050/t due to lower stocks following firm exports during 2024. Coconut falls In the lauric oil markets, Mistry is projecting an increase in prices during the 2024-25 period as he expects coconut oil (CNO) production to decrease. He forecasts CNO prices to continue on an upward trend until the second half of 2025, ranging between $1,800–2000/t cif Rotterdam until June. Crude palm kernel oil prices are expected to follow CNO during the same period, Mistry said. By Deborah Sun and Carolina Palma Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
PKO insufficient for EU market under EUDR
PKO insufficient for EU market under EUDR
London, 8 November (Argus) — The European oleochemical market will have insufficient palm kernel oil (PKO) supply under the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), delegates heard today at the 20th Indonesian Palm Oil Conference and 2025 Price Outlook (IPOC 2024) in Nusa Dua, Bali. The cost of compliance with the EUDR will tighten PKO supply for EU markets as fewer palm oil producers are expected to comply with the regulation, further increasing prices into the EU bloc, according to Glenauk Economics managing director Julian McGill. Additionally, an excessive investment in fatty alcohols production in Indonesia will limit the country's exports, further tightening global supply, according to McGill. Indonesia currently consumes 70pc of its PKO production, McGill said. The EUDR requires mandatory due diligence from operators and trading firms selling and importing palm oil and its derivatives into the EU bloc, including PKO. Firms must ensure that products sold in the EU have not contributed to deforestation or forest degradation. Although the regulation is originally expected to take effect from 1 January 2025, the European Commission recently proposed an extra 12 months "phasing-in time" for implementation, which will be voted on by the EU parliament, probably on 14 November. But "the problem with the EUDR will not be solved by postponing the regulation, as European demand for PKO will remain excessive compared to that for palm oil," Julian McGill said during the conference. To fulfil European demand for PKO, producers will have to generate more EUDR compliant palm oil than actually needed, according to McGill. The average yield of PKO from fresh palm oil fruit bunches is 2-5pc. McGill also highlighted that another important problem to be solved for the EUDR to be correctly implemented is the complexity of traceability requirements for palm and palm kernel oil, because they are liquid goods, unlike wood, coffee and cocoa beans. By Carolina A. Palma Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
