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US soy volatile on possible China buying
US soy volatile on possible China buying
St Louis, 6 February (Argus) — US soybean futures contracts briefly spiked early today as the market adjusted to signs that China may again be resuming US soybean purchasing. The May delivered Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean contract gained $0.174/bushel (bu) within an hour of opening this morning, before shedding those gains and then some, closing the day down by $0.042/bu at $11.28/bu. The May CBOT contract still closed the day slightly above Thursday's closing value, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains this week. Basis gains for new crop soybeans loaded in the Pacific Northwest were also reported today, further support for what market sources tell Argus is Chinese buyers re-engaging with the US. Buyers may have contracted overnight for as many as seven cargoes for April-May loading in the US Gulf, according to sources. Friday's trades follow an unanticipated boost to futures prices on 4 February from a social media post from US president Donald Trump declaring China would increase its US soybean purchases by 8mn t. If China has returned to US soybean markets, it raises questions regarding the outlook for US-Chinese soybean trade going forward. Currently, China has an agreement to purchase 12mn t of US soybeans by the end of this month, and another 25mn t per-year for the next three years. As of 29 January, total US soybean sales to China reached 9.89mn t for this marketing year, with 100,000t sold during that week alone, according to US Department of Agriculture data. This seems to be at odds with US treasury secretary Scott Bessent's claim on 20 January that China had completed its purchases of the first 12mn t. If China did purchase more US soybeans this morning, in line with Trump's claim the country would buy another 8mn t, it is unclear how these sales would tally towards the current agreement. If they are considered an extension of the current 12mn t agreement, then that might mean China will move to secure these volumes before the end of February. If not, they might be added to the 25mn t obligation for 2026. That would put US soybean sales to China at 33mn t for 2026, which would be the most since the 2020-21 marketing year. Either way, Trump's claim and the potential re-engaging of China in US soybean markets is likely to detach the markets understanding of the US-China soybean trade agreement from its stated terms. That could mean more volatility and uncertainty for commodity prices moving forward. By Ryan Koory Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
E15 'council' convenes without Dem. lawmakers
E15 'council' convenes without Dem. lawmakers
New York, 5 February (Argus) — A council of Republican lawmakers tasked with negotiating major changes to US fuel policy held its first meeting Tuesday evening, leaving out Democrats that had pushed for a seat at the table. The US House of Representatives last month punted on a proposal that would have allowed year-round sales of gasoline with up to 15pc ethanol (E15) and restricted how many refiners can win hardship exemptions from annual biofuel mandates. Instead, lawmakers tasked a new "rural domestic energy council" with developing policy recommendations by 15 February in the hopes that Congress will weigh legislation by 25 February. The full council met for the first time Tuesday evening, four people familiar with the matter said. The task force includes more than 20 House Republicans with a range of views on biofuel policy, but no Democrats, two of the people said. The office of House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), who was in charge of appointing council members, did not respond to Argus' requests for comment. "My Democratic colleagues and I have been clear about the need for Democratic voices on this council — a concern leadership has so far failed to address," representative Nikki Budzinski (D-Illinois) said. "I will continue to press for real, bipartisan action that our growers deserve." Proposals to expand E15 have historically drawn bipartisan support, particularly from Midwestern lawmakers keen to help the region's farmers. Democrats could still support legislation that includes an E15 deal even if left out of negotiations this month. But some lobbyists close to the debate privately doubt that the council will reach any substantial compromise, especially after the earlier E15 proposal drew strong opposition from mid-sized oil refiners that want to maintain their ability to avoid the costly biofuel quotas. The council includes members from states with those refineries, including Gabe Evans' district (R-Colorado), where a Suncor refining complex is located, while CVR Energy and HF Sinclair have units in council co-chair Stephanie Bice's state (R-Oklahoma). Some Republican US senators that have long wanted deeper reforms to the biofuel mandate program are also skeptical of the earlier proposal, complicating any deal's chance of passage. "The federal government should not force Americans to put ethanol in their gas tanks," senator Mike Lee (R-Utah) said. "It is not good for the economy, the environment or car engines. We should not subsidize the corn industry at the expense of hardworking American families." The latest E15 proposal was developed partly by the American Petroleum Institute — an influential lobby within the Republican Party — and has won the support of larger oil refiners like Valero. Farmers' and fuel groups that support the earlier bill have urged the council to focus narrowly on improving it, rather than considering more divisive fuel market issues too. President Donald Trump, who has backed the biofuel industry with a proposal last year for record-high blend mandates, has made clear that he would sign legislation expanding E15 access. He said in an Iowa speech last month that he was optimistic Congress could strike a deal. It is unclear when the council, which includes a number of farm-state biofuel supporters too, plans to meet again. The large majority of gasoline in the US is sold as a 10pc ethanol blend. Farm advocates have pushed for over a decade to loosen summertime smog rules that forbid sales of higher blends in much of the country without emergency waivers . By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US biofuel tax rule may help resellers, farmers: Update
US biofuel tax rule may help resellers, farmers: Update
Updates with details from draft regulations, industry reactions New York, 3 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration expects to update the rules around a low-carbon fuel tax credit to allow more types of fuel sales to qualify and to encourage farmers to grow crops more sustainably. The US Department of Treasury on Tuesday released a long-awaited proposal spelling out how to qualify for the "45Z" tax credit, which kicked off in 2025 and was extended by Republicans' tax and energy bill last summer. The general structure of the credit — which offers a sliding scale of subsidies to alternative fuel producers based on greenhouse gas emissions — is known, but industry has been pushing for more clarity on thorny eligibility questions. The proposed regulations Tuesday clarify, for instance, that producers can claim 45Z tax breaks for fuel that is sold to intermediaries. Sales to wholesalers or traders are common in fuel markets, but lawyers interpreted partial guidance issued in the waning days of former-president Joe Biden's term as potentially requiring that fuel must be sold to end users to qualify. The fuel sale question had left many refiners unclear as to how to qualify for an incentive crucial to their margins and had snarled logistics in key biofuel markets. Major biofuel producers idled facilities last year too, in part because of the lack of final rules around what was then a new and unfamiliar tax break. Producers of biofuels such as ethanol, biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel have been closely watching for the 45Z tax guidance, especially since the Trump administration is late setting new biofuel blend mandates and Congress has punted on a proposal to allow a higher-ethanol gasoline blend year-round. The proposed regulations, which will go through a public comment period that includes a 28 May public hearing, will still need to be finalized. But they signal how the Trump administration is thinking about the complicated incentive and will allow producers to rely on existing guidance when preparing their tax returns until final regulations are available. "I think there is going to be a significantly greater sense of certainty going forward — obviously not absolute certainty — but I think people will be willing to start negotiating these contracts assuming the proposed regulations get finalized in substantially the same form," said Liz McGinley, chair of the tax department at law firm Bracewell. More certainty from the proposed rules could lead to "more successful and economically reasonable" tax credit transfer sales too, McGinley said. Some biofuel makers have already signed multimillion-dollar deals to sell their 45Z credits at a discount to their book values, promising revenue from the incentive even before tax season. Others have waited for more clarity. Soil to subsidy Some details still depend on final rules, however. The proposal signals that the Trump administration expects to eventually credit more on-farm emissions reductions, which would effectively reward biofuel producers that source sustainably grown crops with larger subsidies. The Biden administration had released an initial calculator so that corn, soybean and sorghum farmers could track the climate benefits of practices like cover crops and no-till agriculture. But it was unclear whether Trump, a skeptic of climate science, would continue the effort at all. The Tuesday proposal was unexpectedly far-reaching in those plans for rewarding sustainably grown crops, suggesting that the agriculture program could mean larger tax breaks not just in the future but for fuel sold last year. A tool for incorporating carbon reductions from farm practices will "likely" be added to a Department of Energy emissions tracking model this year, the Tuesday proposal said. Treasury expects to issue additional recordkeeping and verification requirements too. "We have a seat at the table, but we do not have the details yet," said Mitchell Hora, an Iowa farmer and the chief executive of soil health tracking platform Continuum Ag. Biofuel and farm groups were encouraged by the proposal — particularly the clarity around fuel sales — but said they needed more information too, including an updated version of the Department of Energy (DOE) emissions tracking model. A Treasury official told Argus that DOE was working on model updates "in the near term". DOE did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The Department of Agriculture said that fuel producers should treat the farm emissions tracking tools issued under the Biden administration as "preliminary and should not rely upon them". Legislation signed by Trump in 2025 already restricts the 45Z credit starting this year to US producers of fuels sourced from North American feedstocks, and the Tuesday proposal signals that the administration could require additional recordkeeping for feedstocks imported from Canada and Mexico. The law also changed how regulators track land use emissions, effectively hiking subsidies this year for crop-based fuels even before accounting for on-farm practices. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico 2026 GDP outlook edges higher in Jan survey
Mexico 2026 GDP outlook edges higher in Jan survey
Mexico City, 3 February (Argus) — Private-sector analysts raised Mexico's 2026 GDP growth outlook in the central bank's January survey, as forecasts adjust to data last week showing stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. The median 2026 GDP growth estimate rose to 1.3pc from 1.15pc in the mid-December survey, while the 2027 outlook edged down to 1.8pc from 1.85pc. Mexico's economy expanded by 1.6pc in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, led by solid expansion in the agriculture sector and more modest growth in the industrial and services sectors. Growth prospects for 2026 and 2027 hinge on a timely and successful renewal of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement, scheduled to conclude in July, multiple market sources told Argus . Optimism around the talks is reflected in the survey's quarterly breakdown, which projects 2026 GDP growth accelerating to 1.54pc in the third quarter from 1.1pc in the second quarter. Public security remained the top perceived risk to short-term GDP growth, widening its lead over foreign trade concerns, with both risks receiving at least twice as many responses as other factors cited in the survey. Inflation expectations for 2026 were slightly higher in the January survey, moving to 3.95pc from 3.88pc in December. The estimate for core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged from the previous survey at 3.75pc. Annual inflation slowed to 3.69pc in December — the lowest December reading since 2020 — from 3.8pc in November, driven by easing agricultural and energy prices and some moderation in core inflation. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, eased to 4.33pc from 4.43pc, though it remained above the central bank's 4pc upper target for an eighth consecutive month. The central bank cut the target rate to 7pc on 18 December from 10pc at the start of 2025, with analysts expecting the tightening cycle to end this year and the rate to close 2026 at 6.5pc. The bank's next monetary policy decision is scheduled for 5 February. Analysts also strengthened their peso forecast, projecting an end-2026 exchange rate of Ps18.50/$1, compared with Ps19.23/$1 in the previous survey. The end-2027 forecast moved to Ps19.00/$1 from Ps19.45/$1. The US dollar weakened roughly 4pc against the peso over the last month, trading at Ps17.26/$1 on 3 February compared with Ps17.9/$1 on 3 January. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.