LNG Winter 2024 Preview

Europe is entering its third winter in a row with underground stores brimming, while global LNG production capacity keeps rising. Like last winter, a weak economy could keep demand in check across Europe and Asia. Yet global gas and LNG prices are higher than they were a year earlier, and LNG is again more expensive than oil in Asia. With Russian gas transit through Ukraine more likely than not to halt at the end of this year, Europe and the global LNG market may yet face a tough test of their resilience in winter 2024-25. Cold, still weather combined with some unplanned supply outages could easily tip the balance and require a substantial underground stock draw, setting the world up for a challenging summer 2025 restocking campaign.

Takeaways:

• Higher nuclear and renewable capacity and the possibility of stronger coal- and oil-fired generation could curb LNG use in the power sector in key Asian economies
• Weak global economic growth is poised to cap Chinese gas demand growth, against the background of a continued ramp-up in domestic production and pipeline imports
• Capacity buildout is set to underpin LNG supply growth, although individual producers face restricted feed gas availability
• The global LNG carrier fleet continues to grow ahead of an expected jump in production capacity next year