Gus: Welcome to "The Argus Crude Report: The TMX Series," a podcast dedicated to Canadian heavy crude flows now hitting Pacific markets. In this series, we'll delve into the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline, or TMX, its evolution, and the impact of the pipeline's operation on global markets. My name is Gus Vasquez, and I'm the editorial manager for crude and LPG. And today I am joined by Mykah Briscoe, who is our pipeline reporter at the U.S. Gulf Coast. And the reason we have Mykah today is because there's been a lot of questions and concerns even about the effects that the startup of TMX could have on the Gulf Coast in terms of the Canadian volumes that would come down and the kind of prices that you might see at the Gulf Coast as a result. So, Mykah, from kind of a big-picture standpoint, what are you seeing at the Gulf Coast in terms of what's happening with Canadian crude?
Mykah: Absolutely. So volumes at the Gulf Coast for low-TAN and high-TAN grades are kind of doing something different. So volumes at the Gulf Coast for WCS, Cold Lake, they fell the first full month post-TMX, but following that month, they've risen over the month ever since, and they're up compared to a year ago. High-TAN volumes, they've actually fallen for most months post-TMX, but they're still higher than a year ago. And there are multiple different factors that could have contributed to less flows of that particular grade.
Gus: Okay. So I guess really not much to report there as it were in terms of the volumes. Now, in terms of pricing, and, of course, that can be a very different area to look at because prices will, of course, react to many other factors than just flows and new pipelines, but just out of curiosity, if the volumes haven't changed that much, have we seen a price impact of any kind that we could perhaps attribute to the startup of TMX?
Mykah: For sure. So there was a little bit of a price impact there. I think it went more with expectation that there was going to be less flows, anticipation, people were preparing for it, but the first two to three months following the startup of TMX, differentials actually averaged weaker for the month. But once that passed, the market kind of corrected itself and strengthened again. The first month after it started strengthening, it averaged 85 cents stronger than the month before. And then for the October trade month, it averaged $1.20 higher than a month before. So the market kind of corrected itself, and those are for WCS, Cold Lake differentials. And, definitely, other factors could have contributed it. There were wildfires in Canada in July, which ultimately could have contributed to differential movement. There were refinery outages in the U.S. mid-continent, which could contribute...could weaken prices. So there are definitely multiple external factors besides TMX that could have impacted differentials. But it seems like lately markets have sort of returned to business as usual. Following TMX, they were weaker compared to the year prior, but, again, they're actually stronger now. In the past two months, they've averaged stronger than the year prior.
Gus: Okay, so while we have kind of been seeing some price differences in Canada, it seems that that's not really translating into any big changes in the Gulf Coast. And, like you mentioned, with fires and refinery outages and other things, I mean, it's hard to tell really what's driving everything. But it would appear that markets are reacting to the fundamentals as opposed to the new pipeline. So I guess that leaves me with one last topic that I know has come up when we talk to some people, and that was this idea of what's going to happen to Cushing when TMX starts because Canadian crude flows into Cushing. It can be a big part of the stocks that are held at Cushing. It can be used for blending into DSW streams, and, you know, that could potentially have all kinds of implications. What is the story of Cushing? Well, what have you seen?
Mykah: Not much. They are weaker. Most recent EIA data showed that Cushing storage has fallen over the week but that they were still higher than a year earlier. So with little impact on volume flows down the Keystone pipeline, there hasn't been much impact at Cushing.
Gus: Okay, so, again, it seems like not a lot to report on this side once you get south of the border. But I know for a fact that there is one thing that we talk about all the time that has been impacted, and it's kind of a big deal because it has some ramifications, right? So why don't you enlighten our audience and tell us what that is?
Mykah: Absolutely. So where we're going to actually see the most impact contributed to TMX is medium sours at the Gulf Coast, specifically Mars. So Mars has actually traded at a discount every month following the startup of TMX when it had been at a premium for majority of the months pre-TMX. It had fallen the first full three trade months following TMX and has sort of returned to normal, but it's really being impacted because China has started taking TMX exports. They have ready access to it, and they are blending it with the cheap, heavy Canadian and blending it with the light Murban that is also cheap as a substitute for Mars imports. So, in October, refiners in the Asia-Pacific actually collectively bought 44,000 barrels per day of Mars for arrival, which was down from 136,000 barrels per day in 2023, according to analytics firm, Kepler. The regional Mars imports for this year were at their lowest since Mars started flowing in Asia in 2017. So, because China, which is one of the largest buyers of Mars in Asia, they just have such access to the cheap, heavy Canadian grades. And Mideast Gulf Murban has been trading near parity to medium sour Mars and from the same region that they're blending in. It's just making more economic sense than buying Mars from the U.S.
Gus: Yeah, I mean, that does make sense. I understand. At the end, it's all about economics. And if you can blend and get a better result, then, for sure, people are going to do that. And it's interesting to me, because having covered Latin America markets for a while, what happens to Mars is going to be an indicator for what may happen in Latin America. So, for example, Colombian crudes that may be looking to go to the Gulf Coast with a weak Mars price, they may not find themselves competitive and may actually end up flowing to other regions. So it is having a knock-on effect on the medium sour market at the Gulf Coast that I think could be quite important. And that is definitely something that, going forward, we'll have to keep an eye on and look a little bit more deeply into because that could be a bit of a shift. And, as you say, if it's a matter of Mars moving from a premium pre-startup of TMX to a discount every month, that does make a big difference for a lot of folks.
Certainly, the Saudis and the Iraqis and the Kuwaitis who use the Argus Sour Crude Index price to set their pricing to the U.S., Mars is a big part of that ASCI number. So then they also will have to adjust and think about, you know, maybe a future in which Mars is not going to be at a premium anymore, and they need to adjust accordingly. So that is all really interesting and actually quite a big impact. So, in the end, maybe not on the Canadian side, but certainly the Gulf Coast is feeling a difference as a result of TMX.
So, with that, I think we've had quite a bit of information and a pretty good discussion. So we're probably going to call it a day. But before we go, I would say keep an eye out because we will be planning on releasing new podcasts on TMX in the future as things continue to develop. In the meantime, if you're looking for more in-depth daily coverage of what's going on in the Americas crude oil markets, I would recommend subscribing to Argus Crude. With that, you will gain access to daily price information for the crude assessments globally, including pipeline assessments like WTI Houston. Plus, you will have the benefit of having all the exclusive insights on TMX that we come across. So please don't miss out on this valuable resource. And thank you for tuning in. And we look forward to having you with us again on the next episode of "The Crude Report: TMX Series."
