Carbon auction suggests optimism over Ontario

Spanish Market: Electricity, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
24/05/18

The latest results from the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) carbon allowance auction indicate that industry officials are betting on the survival of Ontario's cap-and-trade program.

The province, along with California and Quebec, sold all of the nearly 90.6mn vintage 2016 and 2018 allowances offered at a 15 May auction, according to results released yesterday by the state and provincial governments.

That high level of demand at the auction comes just ahead of a 7 June election that could upend the nascent carbon market alliance. The opposition Progressive Conservative Party has threatened to do away with the cap-and-trade program if it takes over as the majority government.

If that happens, the companies buying allowances to cover their carbon emissions could lose their investment. But Ontario industry officials appear to have bet that cap-and-trade will not go away, at least in the short-term.

"Despite the political uncertainty, Ontario entities are not really shying away," said Nicolas Girod of the carbon market advisory firm ClearBlue Markets.

Ontario started its carbon market in 2017 and linked with the California and Quebec programs this year, significantly expanding the market and adding to the number of trading partners available to companies.

Girod noted that 45 Ontario companies qualified for bidding in the latest auction, 10 more than in February.

Numbers like that suggest that Doug Ford, leader of Ontario's Progressive Conservative Party, could find it difficult to disentangle the province from a climate policy that industry has already invested in. More interests than ever have committed to the program, at least for the next two years covered by the current vintage allowances sold at this week's auction.

The sale raised about C$467 ($363mn) for Ontario, as well as $681mn for California and C$190mn for Quebec. That money goes to projects that further reduce emissions, in some cases to the direct benefit of the companies regulated by cap and trade.

Former environment minister Glen Murray, who oversaw the creation of Ontario's cap-and-trade system, has said that it will be "almost impossible" for someone to undo the program and warned they would "pay a very difficult price" to do it.

Key components of the province's climate strategy and market structure are enshrined in legislation and could be particularly difficult to repeal.

But not all market signals suggest widespread optimism about prospects for Ontario's carbon market. A carbon trader for one California fuel wholesaler said that market participants had already accounted for the possibility of Ontario's departure well before the event.

"With the December 2018 futures trading down to $15, we priced in most of the risk already."

The price for vintage 2018 CCAs with a December delivery had dropped more than 40¢ since 1 January 2018 by the time of the May auction.

The vintage 2018 CCAs for December delivery received a slight bump from the auction results, trading for $15.14/t yesterday.

Environmental groups, concerned that the most ambitious carbon pricing program in North America might falter, nonetheless breathed a sigh of relief yesterday.

"The results for both current and future vintage in this auction indicate that confidence is steady, and the California-Quebec-Ontario market remains a world leader in driving climate action," Environmental Defense Fund senior analyst Katelyn Roedner Sutter said.

The last five quarterly auctions, dating back to May 2017, have sold out of the current vintage allowances offered — a period of stability that has provided regulators with a steady source of revenue to fund climate change mitigation projects.

Doug Ford says he is determined to "scrap" the cap-and-trade program. But as the latest auction results indicate, he would have to overcome a growing constituency of support for the fledgling market to make good on that campaign pledge.

2015 GHG emissions by jurisdiction mn t

CCA auctions: Percentage of current vintages sold

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29/04/25

Carney’s Liberals to form next Canadian government

Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and his Liberal party are projected to win the country's 45th general election, but securing a majority of seats in Parliament is unclear with many tight races still to be determined. The Liberal party is on track to take 156 of the 343 seats up for grabs, according to preliminary results from Elections Canada at about 11pm ET. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, will form the official opposition with an estimated 144 seats so far. The Liberals seat count is comparable to the 160 won in the 2021 election while the Conservatives are up from 119. If the Liberals win a minority they would need the support of other parties to pass legislation, as they did prior to the election. The win completes the comeback for the Liberal party which just a few months ago languished in polls as dissatisfaction of then-prime minister Justin Trudeau rose. Carney and his experience navigating economic crises resonated with voters as they found themselves in a trade war initiated by US president Donald Trump. The US has imposed a 25pc tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum since 13 March and Canadian automobiles since 9 April. Canada has retaliated to each wave with tariffs of their own. Canadian oil and gas has been exempt from US tariffs but Trump's trade action has led many politicians and Canadians at large to re-examine the need to diversify its energy exports. Trade corridors, pipelines and LNG facilities were promoted by both Carney and Poilievre. Carney and Trump agreed in late-March that broader, comprehensive economic negotiations would happen after the election. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. Inflation, housing, Trump top concerns The key issues for Canadians this election cycle were inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations — particularly the aggressive moves from the US, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Carney's campaign had centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Environmental markets wary of Trump's next moves

28/04/25

Environmental markets wary of Trump's next moves

Houston, 28 April (Argus) — US President Donald Trump's recent threat of legal challenges against state climate and clean energy policies has roiled environmental markets waiting to learn the scope and avenues those confrontations could take. Trump's 8 April executive order, which directed the Department of Justice (DOJ) to consider contesting state policies that threaten "American energy dominance", targeted California's cap-and-trade program by name, but it may also extend to other policies, including renewable portfolio standards (RPS). But uncertainty about the extent of the administration's ambitions has injected another variable into an already volatile economic landscape. Market anxieties may not fade soon. US attorney general Pam Bondi has until early June to report on actions she has taken and make recommendations for other steps by the White House or Congress. Conservatives in some states already have asked her to scrutinize particular programs. Administration arguments One angle from which the DOJ could attack state programs is the well-trod "dormant Commerce Clause", a legal doctrine that says state laws cannot discriminate against or impose undue burdens on another state's economic activity. But such a challenge is more difficult if a program is merely stipulating, "if you want to come to our state, our electricity market or our fuel market, here are the rules to play by", according to Matthew Dobbins, a partner at Vinson & Elkins and member of the law firm's environment and natural resources team in Houston. Courts have dismissed lawsuits that tried this approach against low-carbon fuel standards in California and Oregon , as well Colorado's RPS. In addition, an appeals court last year threw out a case against Washington's cap-and-invest program, ruling it did not overstep in its handling of in-state versus out-of-state electricity suppliers. The US Supreme Court may soon decide whether to hear an appeal of the case. More broadly, a 2023 Supreme Court decision upholding a California law restricting interstate pork sales based on animal treatment makes such dormant Commerce Clause challenges "a lot harder", according to Nico van Aelstyn, partner at Sheppard Mullin in San Francisco. The DOJ could try using the "Equal Sovereignty" doctrine, which stipulates that one state's rights cannot exceed another's, van Aelstyn said. This has been used in cases against California's vehicle emissions standards and other states' climate "superfund" laws, which penalize oil and gas companies for historical emissions. But van Aelstyn described it as "not really tested yet." That administration has also been hoping to fast-track Supreme Court rulings on the executive orders by justifying them through "declared emergencies," according to Dobbins. This use of emergency powers will likely reveal how far the court will go to "pressure test" the administration's requests for speedy judicial relief, as justices work through a growing emergency docket through the end of term in June or July. Relitigating the past Amid growing trade tensions between the US and Canada, the DOJ could also revive a 2019 lawsuit against California's cap-and-trade program. A US district court at the time ruled that federal purview over foreign affairs does not preempt the state linking its program with Quebec's. Although the first Trump administration appealed the ruling, former president Joe Biden withdrew the case, leaving the matter undecided with one claim potentially still ripe for judicial review. "What that'll probably come down to is how much Canada has expressed its anger . . . and if the administration is willing to go 'all in' on trying to provoke one of our largest trading partners," Dobbins said. But even if California severed ties with Quebec, the province is a small part of the market, and its absence is unlikely to cripple the state's program. Meanwhile, in the markets… Trump's executive order has put states and US companies alike on the back foot, adding to a "shock and awe" barrage from tariffs and potential rollbacks to federal clean electricity incentives , said Tom Harper, a partner on consultant Baringa's energy advisory team in New York City. That volatility has led clean energy developers and buyers to hold off on decisions until they have a bit more stability. "You're almost in a state of paralysis because you can't go and deploy a team on a project. You can't go and arrange finance because the cost is moving day to day," Harper said. The tariffs have also fed growing concerns about the US economy, which have spilled into environmental markets. The California Carbon Allowance (CCA) market, already a bit bearish because of ongoing delays to planned program changes, plunged the day after Trump's executive order. Argus assessed CCAs for December delivery that day at $26.74/t — at the time their lowest price since November 2022. The lack of certainty around federal legal developments continues to whittle away at bullish signals, leaving market participants to wait for a clear outcome. Adding another layer of uncertainty is the fact that disputes may spill outside of the court system. Following the same logic as of Trump's " national energy emergency ", the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) could hypothetically issue an emergency order to halt carbon and clean energy programs. The recent resignation of a Democratic commissioner, giving Trump the ability to install a Republican majority, could facilitate that pathway. But using FERC to shutter these programs would be on weak legal footing, van Aelstyn said. The Trump administration has no issue using extrajudicial tools to enforce its policies, such as its January pause on federal funding that left states like California — which receives more than $100bn in backing and grants from the US government each fiscal year — grappling with potential budget holes. Two federal courts have said the administration must dole out the funds, but agencies have been slow to comply. "If they can withhold congressionally appropriated research funds for universities because they don't like their policies with regard to free speech on their campuses, what else might they do?" van Aelstyn said. "Withhold Medicaid funding to states where they don't like their renewable energy standards?" By Denise Cathey and Patrick Zemanek Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil to hold auction to recover degraded land

28/04/25

Brazil to hold auction to recover degraded land

Sao Paulo, 28 April (Argus) — Brazil's finance, environment and agriculture ministries will host a second auction to recover 1mn hectares (ha) of degraded lands in all Brazilian biomes except the Amazon, the national treasury said on Monday. The auction will be a part of Eco Invest, a currency-hedging program targeting renewable and low-carbon projects to draw foreign investment, announced in February 2024. The finance ministry and central bank developed the program with the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. The auction is part of New Brazil, a wider energy transition project within the finance ministry. The project aims to finance conversions of degraded lands in different biomes to sustainable and productive ecosystems through private investments. The Amazon biome, the most hit by deforestation, will receive a "customized and exclusive auction" that will be announced later, the environment ministry said. Participants must submit project proposals to the national treasury by 13 June. The government expects to raise up to R10bn ($1.76bn) in the auction. Land-use change and deforestation Emissions from land-use change and deforestation in Brazil reached 1.06bn metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) in 2023, down by 24pc from a year earlier, according to greenhouse gas tracking platform SEEG. These activities have been leading Brazil's total emissions since 1990 — when historic tracking began — followed by agriculture and cattle raising and the energy sectors. There are currently 280mn ha of farmlands, of which around 29pc are degraded. The government aims to recover up to 40mn ha of grasslands in the next 10 years, the environment and climate change ministry said. The Eco Invest auction will finance the first round of the initiative, dubbed the Green Way program, according to the agriculture ministry. Brazil aims to reduce its total greenhouse gas emissions by 67pc by 2035 from its 2005 levels and sees reducing deforestation as one of its main ways to achieve that goal. The country will host the upcoming UN Cop 30 climate summit in Belem city, in the Amazon biome, as the administration looks to lead the global energy transition . By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Power outage hits Spanish refineries: Update 2

28/04/25

Power outage hits Spanish refineries: Update 2

Adds details on flight cancellations London, 28 April (Argus) — A massive power cut across the Iberian peninsula has disrupted operations at several refineries, chemical plants and airports in Spain and Portugal today. All five of Repsol's Spanish refineries have been forced to shut, a union representative for the company's workers said. This includes the 220,000 b/d Bilbao refinery, which is operated by Repsol's Petronor subsidiary. Crews are in place, securing units at the refineries. "There is sufficient autonomy in all of them to guarantee the safety of the facilities," the union representative said. Repsol has yet to respond to a request for comment. Fellow Spanish refiner Moeve said it also has halted activity at its refining and chemical plants in the country and is using back-up power generators "to guarantee the safety and control of the system". Moeve operates the 244,000 b/d Algeciras and 220,000 b/d Huelva refineries. Its 250,000 t/yr San Roque base oils plant is also shutting down. Chemicals firm Dow said all plants at its Tarragona industrial complex in Spain have been closed. The longer the power outage lasts, the longer it will take to restart integrated sites. Refineries affected by power outages normally require a 2- to 3-day restart period. It is unclear yet whether any plants have sustained damage. Airports in both countries have also been affected, with 29pc of flights cancelled at Lisbon, according to data from analytics firm Cirium. A total of 96 flights from Portuguese airports have been cancelled today, according to Cirium, while 45 have been cancelled in Spain. Spanish transmission system operator Red Electrica and relevant government bodies are investigating the cause of the blackout. Red Electrica said power has been restored "at substations in several areas in the north, south and west of the peninsula, and consumers in these areas are beginning to be supplied". By George Maher-Bonnett, Isabella Reimi, Alex Sands and Monicca Egoy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canadians go to polls in general election

28/04/25

Canadians go to polls in general election

Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Voting in Canada is underway today with the governing Liberal party looking to complete a comeback in polling against the Conservative party to clinch its fourth-straight term. There are 343 seats up for grabs in Canada's Parliament and polls throughout the five-week campaign indicate the Liberals have a reasonable chance to win a majority, which would allow them to implement policies without needing the support of other parties. Latest polling figures show the Liberals at 43pc, the Conservatives at 39pc, the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 8pc, the Bloq Quebecois at 6pc, and the Green Party at 2pc, according to poll aggregator Canada338 on Monday. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. The key issues for Canadians this election cycle are inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by US president Donald Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Liberal leader Mark Carney's campaign has centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . A fresh face for the Liberals and a foe to rally against in Trump has lifted the fortunes of the party, which some critics speculated only months ago could lose most of its seats. As recent as January, the Liberals were facing a 26-point deficit in polls, but the party mounted a comeback at the expense of both the Conservatives and the left-leaning NDP. The Conservatives would likely have to overtake the Liberals by several percentage points to win enough seats to form a government, based on the past two elections in 2019 and 2021. More Canadians voted for Conservatives than any other party in those races, but the Liberals came away with the most seats, owing to their success in winning tight races. The last polls close on Canada's west coast at 10pm ET with preliminary results expected shortly after. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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