Colombia mulls oil products supply options
Colombia's energy planning agency Upme is proposing an annual fuel charge of 174 pesos/USG (6¢/USG) to finance new pipeline capacity, storage and other infrastructure seen as critical to ensuring long-term supply.
In an unprecedented indicative fuel supply plan published today, Upme outlined three scenarios over the next two decades. The document, which recommends pipeline competition and structural price adjustments to account for rising imports, is seen as a road map for the business-oriented government of president-elect Iván Duque, who takes office on 7 August.
Among the report's main base-case projections is the need to import crude to run state-controlled Ecopetrol's two main refineries starting in 2026. Demand for jet fuel is seen as particularly robust across all scenarios.
The report addresses the dilemma of the 250,000 b/d Barrancabermeja refinery, which supplies around 80pc of demand, particularly in the products-short Colombian interior.
The refinery processes about 70pc light crude and 30pc heavy and yields products such as gasoline with 300ppm sulfur that do not meet official quality specifications, requiring imports for blending.
Previous efforts to upgrade the refinery to boost gasoline and diesel production and cut fuel oil output failed, and critics say it is no longer worth the expense of up to $10bn because nearby oil fields are declining. A new refinery on the Atlantic coast to complement the existing 165,000 b/d Cartagena refinery, coupled with new pipeline capacity to the interior would make more sense, they say.
Upme itself is calling for 10,000-15,000 b/d modular refinery options near oil-producing areas such as Nariño and Orito, mirroring the trend toward distributed power generation. The agency is also recommending a new pipeline linking the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries.
"We are going to have to do something about Barrancabermeja because bunkers regulation is changing," said Upme hydrocarbons advisor Beatriz Herrera, referring to more stringent international marine fuel specifications that take effect in 2020.
Another key issue addressed in the report is capacity limits on products pipelines, all of which are owned by Ecopetrol subsidiary Cenit. Although some pipelines have spare capacity, others cannot meet demand, prompting the use of more costly and less efficient trucks, and putting upward pressure on pipeline tariffs.
The fall in contraband fuel supply from neighboring Venezuela in recent years adds to the need for expanded midstream capacity, Upme says.
One vital artery is the 125,000 b/d Pozos Colorados-Galán pipeline, which runs from Santa Marta on the Atlantic coast to Galán station near Barrancabermeja in Santander department. Cenit plans to boost capacity to 133,000 b/d by the end of 2018, with expandability to 144,000 b/d.
More significant capacity increases on products pipelines, as well as fresh storage to boost inventories, will require private-sector participation. But in contrast to Colombia´s crude pipeline network in which the private sector is already active, regulation governing products pipelines is fuzzy, leaving the sector in the exclusive hands of Cenit.
Proponents of midstream competition, which they say would lower "exorbitant" pipeline tariffs, are hoping that the mines and energy ministry will issue a resolution, based on an initiative developed by gas and energy regulator Creg, to clear the way for the private sector.
A politically sensitive proposal that will fall in the lap of the new administration would change Colombia´s products pricing formula from an export parity basis to import parity. The shift would imply higher domestic prices.
The proposed fuel charge, if implemented, would take effect in 2019, replacing an existing 71 peso/USG pipeline continuity fee that expires next year.
Upme will receive comments on the new fuel supply report for the next 30 days.
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California pares LCFS goals to tougher targets: Update
California pares LCFS goals to tougher targets: Update
Updates trade discussion, adds links to other coverage. Houston, 13 August (Argus) — California will pursue transportation fuel carbon reduction targets in 2025 nearly twice as tough as originally proposed under final Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) rulemaking language released late Monday. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) will consider a one-time tightening of annual targets for gasoline and diesel by 9pc in 2025, compared with the usual 1.25pc annual reduction and a 5pc stepdown first proposed in December 2023. Staff maintained a 30pc reduction target for 2030, compared to the current 20pc target. Final rulemaking language introduced a new 20pc/yr cap on a company's credit generation from soybean- and canola-oil-based biodiesel or renewable diesel to begin in 2028. The updated rule also dropped proposals to require carbon reductions from jet fuel in addition to gasoline and diesel, a controversial proposal aligned with governor Gavin Newsom's (D) ambitions for lower-carbon air travel but which participants warned would not achieve its targets. The new proposal immediately jolted a lethargic credit market that earlier this year slumped to the lowest spot price in nearly a decade under the weight of growing credit supplies. Current quarter trade raced higher by $12.50 — 26pc — in rare after-hours activity less than two hours after CARB staff published the latest documents. Trade continued up to $65/t in the first half of Tuesday's session before retreating in later hours back below $60/t. Public comment on the proposals will continue to 27 August ahead of a planned 8 November public hearing and potential board vote. The program changes could be in place by the end of the first quarter of 2025, according to staff. LCFS programs require yearly reductions to transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed these annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the market of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. Surging use of renewable diesel and outsized credit generation from renewable natural gas have overwhelmed deficit generation to create a glut of credits available for future compliance. LCFS credits do not expire, and 26.1mn metric tonnes of credits — higher by 16pc than all the new deficits generated in 2023 — were available for future compliance by the end of March. Credits fell in May to trade at $40/t, the lowest level for current quarter credits since June 2015. California late last year formally proposed tougher annual targets, off-ramps for certain fuels and other changes to North America's largest and oldest LCFS program. Staff had initially targeted March to put ideas including a one-time, 5pc reduction to targets in 2025 and automatic mechanisms to match targets to credit and deficit generation before the board for formal approval, but they delayed that meeting after receiving hundreds of distinct comments on the original proposal. Staff shifted the 2025 target to at least 7pc after an April workshop discussion and another record-breaking quarter of increases in credits available for future compliance. The 9pc recommendation followed the continued growth of credit supplies in recent quarters. Previous modeling estimated that such a target could draw down the credit bank by 8.2mn t in its first year. Uncertainty over how fuel suppliers and consumers would respond to that target led staff to leave in place the proposed 30pc target by 2030. An outright cap on credits generated from soybean- or canola-oil derived biomass-based diesels augments initially proposed "guard rails" on crop-based credit generation through verification. The change would send a stronger market signal preferring waste-based feedstocks for diesel fuels that California expects to replace with zero-emission alternatives, staff said. And staff dropped a proposed obligation on jet fuel used in intrastate flights, estimated to make up 10pc of California's jet fuel consumption. Participants had warned the measure would stoke more credit purchases than renewable jet fuel buying, due to the structure of the aviation fuel market . By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
African bitumen buyers hit by container rate hikes
African bitumen buyers hit by container rate hikes
London, 13 August (Argus) — Another big jump in container shipping rates has driven up the cost of importing bitumen to sub-Saharan Africa in recent weeks, hitting buyers that rely on packaged supplies, especially road contractors in east Africa that depend on drummed bitumen from the Middle East for paving projects. The latest surge in rates — which in many cases have shot up by at least 50pc on voyages to east, west and southern Africa compared with prevailing levels up until mid-July — is underpinned by a growing shortage of container ships globally. This has been triggered by longer east-west journey times as vessels sail around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the risk of being attacked by Yemen's Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, a trend that shows no sign of abating. Suppliers of drummed bitumen from Iran and other Middle East exporters point to worsening delays and shortages in container shipping services at storage and trans-shipment hubs in the region, such as Jebel Ali in the UAE. The longer voyages caused by the Red Sea boycott have meant increased bunker fuel consumption and more containers on the water. International shipping lines have raised their rates for voyages from Jebel Ali to Mombasa in Kenya to $3,800/20ft container — equivalent to $190/t based on the typical number and size of bitumen drums in each container — from $2,700/container ($135/t) in mid-July. Rates to Dar es Salaam in Tanzania have jumped to $4,200/container ($210/t) from $2,800/container ($140/t) over the same period. Rates for drummed supplies shipped direct to Mombasa and Dar es Salaam by the Iranian state-owned IRISL fleet have held steady in recent months at around $1,000/container ($50/t) and $1,100/container ($55/t), respectively. Argus' latest assessment of Bandar Abbas/Jebel Ali freight rates for drummed bitumen shipments to Mombasa and Dar es Salaam is around $110/t and $125/t, respectively, up from $90-95/t in the week ending 19 July and $45/t in early December last year before the first wave of Houthi-related rate hikes . First Covid, now this Bitumen charterers say the container shipping problems have echoes of the jump in shipping rates during the Covid era. Bandar Abbas/Jebel Ali drummed bitumen rates to Mombasa and Dar es Salaam doubled from $55-60/t in May 2020 to peak at around $110/t in September 2022 before dropping back to $40-45/t in August last year ahead of the renewed spike. Market participants also point to a large increase in international container shipping rates from the Mideast Gulf to other sub-Saharan African destinations. Rates to Matadi in the Democratic Republic of Congo have reached $6,450/container ($320-325/t) this month, compared with $3,700/container ($185/t) in June. Rates to Durban in South Africa were last week indicated around $3,200/container ($160/t), up from $2,700/container ($135/t) in June, while rates to Namibian ports recently jumped to $7,000/container ($350/t) from $4,000/container ($200/t). West African markets such as Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon and Senegal — as well as South Africa, which also supplies trucks into neighbouring southern African markets — are far less dependent than their east African counterparts on containerised flows, whether in drums, bitutainers or bags, as they are equipped with terminals that receive cargoes on heated bitumen tankers. Exporters of containerised bitumen from the Mideast Gulf or Pakistan are now finding it even more difficult to compete with bulk cargo values. Nigerian bulk tanker cargo import prices stood at $616/t on a cfr basis last week. This compares with around $600/t for Mideast drummed bitumen delivered to Apapa in Lagos. Drummed bitumen carries significant additional handling costs and other expenditure on delivery, with the solid bitumen having to be melted in specialised units before it can be supplied for road projects. By Keyvan Hedvat Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
California narrows LCFS goals to tougher targets
California narrows LCFS goals to tougher targets
Houston, 13 August (Argus) — California will pursue transportation fuel carbon reduction targets in 2025 nearly twice as tough as originally proposed under final Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) rulemaking language released late Monday. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) will consider a one-time tightening of annual targets for gasoline and diesel by 9pc in 2025, compared with the usual 1.25pc annual reduction and a 5pc stepdown first proposed in December 2023. Final rulemaking language introduced a new 20pc/yr cap on a company's credit generation from soybean- and canola-oil-based biodiesel or renewable diesel to begin in 2028. The updated rule also dropped proposals to require carbon reductions from jet fuel in addition to gasoline and diesel, a controversial proposal aligned with governor Gavin Newsom's (D) ambitions for lower-carbon air travel but which participants warned would not achieve its targets. The new proposal immediately jolted a lethargic credit market that earlier this year slumped to the lowest spot price in nearly a decade under the weight of growing credit supplies. Current quarter trade raced higher by $12.50 — 26pc — in rare after-hours activity less than two hours after CARB staff published the latest documents. Public comment on the proposals will continue to 27 August ahead of a planned 8 November public hearing and potential board vote. The program changes could be in place by the end of the first quarter of 2025, according to staff. LCFS programs require yearly reductions to transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed these annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the market of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. Surging use of renewable diesel and outsized credit generation from renewable natural gas have overwhelmed deficit generation to create a glut of credits available for future compliance. LCFS credits do not expire, and 26.1mn metric tonnes of credits — higher by 16pc than all the new deficits generated in 2023 — were available for future compliance by the end of March. Credits fell in May to trade at $40/t, the lowest level for current quarter credits since June 2015. California late last year formally proposed tougher annual targets, off-ramps for certain fuels and other changes to North America's largest and oldest LCFS program. Staff had initially targeted March to put ideas including a one-time, 5pc reduction to targets in 2025 and automatic mechanisms to match targets to credit and deficit generation before the board for formal approval, but they delayed that meeting after receiving hundreds of distinct comments on the original proposal. Staff shifted the 2025 target to at least 7pc after an April workshop discussion and another record-breaking quarter of increases in credits available for future compliance. The 9pc recommendation followed the continued growth of credit supplies in recent quarters. Previous modeling estimated that such a target could draw down the credit bank by 8.2mn t in its first year. Uncertainty over how fuel suppliers and consumers would respond to that target led staff to leave in place the proposed 30pc target by 2030. An outright cap on credits generated from soybean- or canola-oil derived biomass-based diesels replaced initially proposed lighter "guard rails" on crop-based credit generation. The change would send a stronger market signal preferring waste-based feedstocks for diesel fuels that California expects to replace with zero-emission alternatives. And staff dropped a proposed obligation on jet fuel used in intrastate flights, estimated to make up 10pc of California's jet fuel consumption. Participants had warned the measure would stoke more credit purchases than renewable jet fuel buying, due to the structure of the aviation fuel market . By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
China’s oil demand outlook weakens further: IEA
China’s oil demand outlook weakens further: IEA
The IEA issued updates to its numbers London, 13 August (Argus) — The outlook for China's oil demand growth this year has weakened further, the IEA said today. China's oil demand fell for a third consecutive month in June, with crude oil imports in July hitting their lowest since September 2022 when the country was locked down because of Covid, the Paris-based agency said in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR). China's oil demand is now forecast to grow by 300,000 b/d in 2024, compared with 410,000 b/d in last month's report and well below the 710,000 b/d the IEA had projected in January. For next year, the agency pegs growth at 330,000 b/d, "but with risks skewed to the downside." "Chinese oil demand growth has gone into reverse due to a slowdown in construction and manufacturing, rapidly accelerating deployment of vehicles powered by alternative fuels and comparison to a stronger post-reopening baseline," the IEA said. Lower Chinese consumption data feed into the IEA's narrative that the country's pre-eminence as a source of global demand growth is fading . The IEA's global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 remained unchanged at 970,000 b/d as the downgrade from China was mostly offset by better than expected gasoline consumption in the US. The agency now sees US oil demand growth at 140,000 b/d this year, compared with 70,000 b/d last month. The IEA's demand growth forecast for this year remains well below that of Opec which downgraded its forecast by 140,000 b/d to 2.11mn b/d . Opec sees Chinese oil demand growing by 700,000 b/d this year. For next year, the IEA nudged down its oil demand growth projection by 30,000 b/d to 950,000 b/d, mostly on lower forecast Chinese demand. On global oil supply, the IEA lowered its growth estimate for 2024 by 40,000 b/d to 730,000 b/d. Much bigger growth is forecast next year at 1.95mn b/d, led by gains from the US, Guyana, Canada and Brazil. In terms of supply and demand balances this year, the agency's numbers point to a slightly tighter market than previously thought. It now sees a deficit of 130,000 b/d in 2024, compared with 80,000 b/d in last month's report. The deficit in the second half is seen at 390,000 b/d. The IEA said that after four months of stock builds, global observed oil inventories fell by 26.2mn bl in June and preliminary data showed further draws in July. But the IEA points to an oversupplied market next year, particularly given a plan by some Opec+ members to unwind some of their production cuts from October. But even if those cuts remain in place, the agency says global inventories could build by 860,000 b/d in 2025. By Aydin Calik IEA oil demand and supply balance Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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