Venezuela gas deal reached: Trinidad PM

Spanish Market: Natural gas
21/08/18

Trinidad and Tobago will sign an agreement with Venezuela tomorrow for offshore natural gas supply to the Caribbean state, the office of Trinidad's prime minister said today.

An attempt in June 2018 to conclude an agreement for the delivery of the gas failed because of a disagreement between Trinidad's state-owned gas company NGC and Venezuela's state-owned oil company PdV over the price.

The state-to-state agreement – described by today's statement as "historic" - involves European major Shell whose facilities in Trinidad will receive the piped gas from Venezuela's offshore Dragon field, starting with 150mn cf/d in 2020 and eventually reaching 300mn cf/d.

"A high-level Venezuelan delegation" will attend the signing of the agreement, the prime minister's office said, without indicating whether the event will be in Port-of-Spain or Caracas.

There was no immediate comment from PdV or the Venezuelan government.

The gas from the Dragon field will be delivered through a 17km flowline across the maritime border to Shell's existing Hibiscus platform off northwestern Trinidad, from where it would be tied into NGC´s distribution network.

Dragon forms part of Venezuela's 14.7 trillion cf Mariscal Sucre complex that also includes the Patao, Mejillones and Rio Caribe fields.

The gas deal is a key part of Trinidad´s strategy to end nearly five years of supply curtailments to critical gas-based industries. The country's gas production has been falling since 2012, when it averaged 4.1 Bcf/d.

Gas output began to rebound in November 2017 on the back of two projects led by leading producer BP that are delivering a combined 790mn cf/d. National gas production averaged 3.68 Bcf/d in January-June, up by 12.5pc year on year, according to energy ministry data.

But the Venezuelan gas is considered vital to sustaining Trinidad´s gas-based industries, including a four-train liquefaction plant led by BP and Shell, as well as methanol and ammonia plants.

"We are relieved the Dragon gas arrangement is being concluded," the energy ministry told Argus today.

"Although domestic output it rising, the country still has a deficit of about 600mn cf/d, and we will need much more for several planned downstream projects including the reactivation of steel production and expanded methanol production."

Trinidad plans to expand domestic gas production to 4.14 Bcf/d by the end of 2021, finance minister Colm Imbert said in May.

The increase in volume – 22pc above 2017 average output – will come from projects being developed by the country's two major producers – BP and Shell, Imbert said.

"The conclusion of the Dragon agreement will allow Trinidad and Venezuela to move ahead with monetizing the significant gas deposits that straddle their maritime border," the energy ministry said.

Venezuela and Trinidad have been trying for eight years to reach an agreement to tap 10 trillion cf of gas in the cross-border Loran-Manatee field, operated by Chevron.

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08/01/25

German gas demand edges up in 2024

London, 8 January (Argus) — German gas demand remained largely unchanged on the year in 2024, as a recovery in industrial and power-sector burn was almost completely offset by lower residential and commercial consumption amid mild weather. Germany used about 2.285 TWh/d of gas in 2024, up by 6.6 GWh/d from 2.278 TWh/d in 2023, according to data from market area manager THE ( see yearly graph ). But total gas use remained below the 2018-21 average of 2.7 TWh/d, with the drop in wholesale prices from 2022-23 not supporting a rebound in aggregate consumption. Residential and commercial demand — largely for heating purposes — fell by 5pc year on year in 2024 to 894 GWh/d. Household gas prices remain high and are about double those in 2016-21, according to data from grid regulator Bnetza, which may have weighed on gas use by households and small businesses. Mild weather — especially in the first quarter of the year — also pushed down gas demand from households and small businesses. Temperatures were higher than in 2023 in all but three months in the first three quarters of the year, according to data released by German energy and water association BDEW in late December. The number of heating degree days (HDDs) in Germany was about 4pc below the previous year in 2024, and about 14pc below the 10-year average, according to data from Berlin-based think-tank Agora Energiewende. That said, colder weather in September-December supported a year-on-year increase in heating demand during these months ( see monthly year-on-year graph ). According to preliminary calculations published by Agora Energiewende on Tuesday, mild weather and high consumer prices continue to drive the majority of low heating demand, rather than energy-saving efforts. Without the effect of mild weather, emissions from the built environment — largely caused by heating — would have been higher in 2024 than a year earlier, according to Agora. A return of temperature-adjusted heating patterns to pre-crisis levels as well as slow structural changes, such as plummeting heat pump sales , led Agora to urge for more measures in heat transition policy to drive down gas demand from the built environment. Industrial gas demand up by 7pc despite economic woes German gas demand for use in industrial processes rose on the year, according to Argus estimates, supported by a slight recovery in energy-intensive industry. German industry used about 737 GWh/d for industrial processes in 2024, up from 688 GWh/d in 2023 but well below the 2018-21 average of 877 GWh/d, according to Argus analysis. While German GDP stagnated in 2024 and industrial production continued its downward trend, output from energy-intensive industries such as the chemicals sector recovered slightly, especially in the first half of the year. In addition, gas prices falling below LPG in January and remaining cheaper than LPG for most of the year until the fourth quarter may have encouraged some industrial firms to return to gas where they had previously switched to LPG to reduce energy costs. That said, gas prices rising back above propane and butane parity ( see LPG fuel-switching graph ) and lower output from the chemicals industry in recent months may have slowed the German industrial gas demand recovery . And several plant closures in recent years may similarly constrain any future rebound . Power-sector gas burn up Gas-fired generation increased in 2024 from a year earlier on more favourable generation economics than lignite and hard coal, despite a record renewables share reducing the overall call on thermal generation. Gas-fired generation reached 5.96GW last year, up from 5.88GW in 2023, leading to about 16 GWh/d in additional gas demand for power generation, according to Argus estimates. Gas-fired generation increased year on year despite renewables making up a record 62pc of German power generation. Fossil fuel generation was used to meet 17.1GW of power demand in 2024, down from 19.3GW in 2023. While overall power demand remained roughly unchanged from a year earlier, Germany lifted power imports, pushing down domestic generation ( see power mix graph ). But gas increased its share of the thermal mix, partly on lignite and coal plant closures as Germany's coal phase-out progresses. Gas prices at the bottom of the coal-to-gas fuel-switching range for most of the year until the fourth quarter, even outperforming lignite plants in January-July, supported the call on gas for dispatchable generation. Recent gas price rises have put coal and lignite firmly ahead of gas in the power-generation merit order for all forward periods until 2026, suggesting scope for the share of gas in thermal output to be lower this year. By Till Stehr German power generation mix by year GW TTF versus LPG prices, energy equivalence basis $/mn Btu Monthly year-on-year change in gas demand by sector GWh/d German gas demand by year TWh/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump wants policy of 'no windmills' being built

07/01/25

Trump wants policy of 'no windmills' being built

Washington, 7 January (Argus) — President-elect Donald Trump wants to pursue a policy to stop the construction of wind turbines, a move that could limit the growth of a resource projected to soon overtake coal and nuclear as the largest source of power in the the US. Trump has spent years attacking the development of wind, which accounted for 10pc of electricity production in the US in 2023, often by citing misleading complaints about its cost, harm to wildlife and health threats. In a press conference today, Trump reiterated some of those concerns and said he wants the government to halt new development. "It's the most expensive energy there is. It's many, many times more expensive than clean natural gas," Trump said. "So we're going to try and have a policy where no windmills are being built." The US is on track to add more than 90GW of wind capacity by 2028, a nearly 60pc increase compared to 2024, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in latest Annual Energy Outlook report. If that growth materializes, wind will become the second largest source of electricity in the US at the end of of Trump's term, overtaking coal and nuclear in 2027 and 2028, respectively, according to the EIA forecast. Trump did not offer specifics on the policy, which he did not run on during his campaign. But the vast majority of wind capacity in the US is built on private land such as farms — largely in rural districts represented by Republicans — limiting the federal government's role. Trump could still threaten wind development by blocking projects on federal land, such as offshore wind projects, and working to repeal federal tax credits that subsidize wind. Democratic lawmakers said blocking wind development will raise costs for consumers and reduce energy production. "Trump is against wind energy because he doesn't understand our country's energy needs and dislikes the sight of turbines near his private country clubs," said US Senate Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden (D-Oregon), who helped expand federal tax credits for wind through the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. Wind energy industry officials also raised concerns with the policy, which they said conflicted with an all-of-the-above energy strategy. "American presidents shouldn't be taking American resources away from the American people," American Clean Power chief executive Jason Grumet said. 'Gulf of America' Trump today separately reiterated his vow to "immediately" reverse Biden's withdrawal of more than 625mn acres of waters for offshore drilling, and also said he would rename the Gulf of Mexico as the "Gulf of America", which he said was a "beautiful name". In addition to expanding oil and gas production offshore, Trump said he will seek to drill in "a lot of other locations" as a way to lower prices. "The energy costs are going to come way down," Trump said. "They'll be brought down to a very low level, and that's going to bring everything else down." US consumers paid an average of $3.02/USG for regular grade gasoline in December, the lowest monthly price in more than three years. Henry Hub spot natural gas prices dropped to $2.19/mmBtu in 2024, the lowest price in four years. During his campaign, Trump said he would cut the price of energy in half within 12 months of taking office. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Australia edges towards LNG imports in 2025

07/01/25

Viewpoint: Australia edges towards LNG imports in 2025

Sydney, 7 January (Argus) — Australia — formerly the world's largest LNG exporter — edges closer to importing the fuel in 2025, after years of supply warnings from the Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo). Anti-gas lobbying from environmental groups, new emissions laws, slumping exploration, and rising costs have all been blamed for forecasts of production falling below demand levels, even as gas use dips. Debate about the rationale and demand for LNG continues, with no buyers having signed term sales yet. But the recent purchase of the proposed 386 TJ/d (10.3mn m³/d) Outer Harbor LNG project has raised expectations that deals may occur in 2025, to alleviate winter shortfalls from 2026 onwards. Aemo is predicting southern Australia's gas output will drop by 40pc from 1,260 TJ/d in 2024 to 740 TJ/d in 2028, with four import projects proposed in the nation's south. Initial imports will most likely head to New South Wales (NSW) state, Australia's largest jurisdiction by population. NSW is largely reliant on the ExxonMobil-operated Gippsland basin joint venture for supply, and the closure of a 400 TJ/d plant at the formerly 1,150 TJ/d Longford facility this year has accelerated concerns. Australian firm Squadron Energy said its 2.4mn t/yr Port Kembla Energy Terminal in NSW is now ready for operations, which could cover NSW' entire winter demand of about 481 TJ/d, excluding gas-fired generation. Limited storage capacity exists and no new major fields are under near-term development, but increasing pipeline capacity to bring enough Queensland coal-bed methane south could prove critical. Expansion of Australian pipeline operator APA's 440 TJ/d South West Queensland pipeline could be approved in early 2025, raising gas security. LNG imports cost up to 25pc more than pipeline gas, with the AVX — Argus' assessment for month-ahead spot gas deliveries to Victoria — averaging A$12.46/GJ in 2024 t o 27 December, while the Argus Gladstone fob price — an LNG netback indicator calculated by subtracting freight and costs associated with production from the delivered price of LNG to Asia-Pacific — averaged A$16.03/GJ for the same period. On the export scene, Australian independent Santos will restart production at the 3.7mn t/yr Darwin LNG after commissioning the Barossa field in July-September 2025 . The project has withstood significant legal challenges since 2023, with Santos promising an offshore carbon capture and storage facility later this decade to offset emissions. Other Australian terminals will produce steady volumes in 2025. The Woodside-operated North West Shelf project took a 2.5mn t/yr train off line in 2024, reducing its nameplate capacity to 14.4mn t/yr. The facility will start processing about 1.5mn t/yr of onshore gas from Beach Energy and Mitsui's 250 TJ/d Waitsia plant from early 2025. Energy election Australia's federal elections must take place no later than May, in what could be a referendum on the Labor government's renewables-led vision for Australia's grid. Abolishing Coalition-era gas exploration grants, Labor finds itself wedged between critics of further gas extraction and domestic shortfalls which may be already contributing to manufacturing sector weakness. Aemo expects 13GW of gas-fired generation is required under Canberra's 2050 net zero target to firm renewables. But gas projects remain unpopular in many communities, while anti-fossil fuel member of parliaments could hold the balance of power in the next parliament, polls show. Labor is sticking to its 82pc renewables by 2030 plan, while the Coalition has said it will not be met and it would make changes to Australia's 43pc emissions reduction by 2030 target, persisting with coal until nuclear generators can be built. Regardless, it appears much more gas will be needed in the short term as coal plants retire, meaning the temptation to raid east coast LNG projects for supply will remain. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Brazil to shake up gas supply in 2025

06/01/25

Viewpoint: Brazil to shake up gas supply in 2025

Sao Paulo, 6 January (Argus) — New infrastructure projects and supply routes may reduce natural gas prices in Brazil this year, but consumers' and government officials' views diverge on the impact. Brazil gas prices may fall by up to 40pc, according to mines and energy minister Alexandre Silveira. Despite considerable skepticism from consumers, there is increased expectation that a surge in supply — particularly from state-controlled Petrobras, which has around 80pc of gas market share — could cut prices. Petrobras' share may fall as supplies increase and more companies enter the market . Argus' Brazil natural gas network daily average prices were above $10/mmBtu throughout 2024, peaking at $14.525/mmBtu on 5 July before falling to $11.385/mmBtu on 2 January. A typical industrial consumer also has to pay for the distributor margin and federal and state taxes. Brazil produced 159mn m³/d of gas in October, according to the latest data from hydrocarbons regulator ANP, but it made only 56mn m³/d available to the market, as reinjections are common for improving oil recovery. But a decree signed in August may limit that. Brazil expects new gas supply via four different pathways: The long-anticipated Rota 3 pipeline; new volumes through state-owned marketing firm PPSA; deals to move gas directly from Argentina's Vaca Muerta formation; and another plan to move Vaca Muerta gas through Bolivia into Brazil. Petrobras' 355km (221-mile) Rota 3 pipeline went on line in September, carrying 18mn m³/d from offshore domestic fields. This could increase Brazil's natural gas supply by about 25pc . State-owned marketing firm PPSA, which manages Brazil's upstream production sharing contracts, may also directly negotiate processed gas volumes for the market in 2025. This marks a shift from selling gas at the platform exit, which limited competitiveness. The government owns around 150,000 m³/d of gas across six contracts, and that is expected to increase to 3mn m³/d in the coming years. Argentina approved 10.4mn m³/d of export contracts to Brazil as of 16 December and it has reversed the flow of its 1,465km northern pipeline that previously imported gas from Bolivia. The plan is to eventually pump Vaca Muerta gas to Bolivia and then into the 3,150km Bolivia-Brazil pipeline. By Betina Moura Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canadian prime minister Trudeau to resign

06/01/25

Canadian prime minister Trudeau to resign

Calgary, 6 January (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau said he will resign as soon as his Liberal Party selects a new leader to run in general elections expected later this year. Calls for Trudeau to resign have been growing for months but became too much to ignore as the Liberals continued to fall further behind the Conservative Party and its leader Pierre Poilievre in polling. Recent polls indicate the centre-right Conservatives would win a majority of seats in the House of Commons if an election were held today. "If I'm having to fight internal battles, I can't be the best option in that election," Trudeau said in Ottawa this morning. Parliament was set to return from a break on 27 January, at which time Conservatives were expected to attempt to trigger an election by way of a no-confidence vote. Canada's governor general — at Trudeau's request — extended the break until 24 March. That break will buy the Liberals time to find a new leader but it will be a tall order for any successor to both unite the party and also connect with Canadians on short notice before an expected spring election. "There will be confidence votes in March," said Trudeau, whose minority government has been propped up by the New Democratic Party (NDP). The NDP has helped Trudeau survive no-confidence votes in recent months, but on 20 December vowed that it would also bring the government down when it returned to session. Trudeau was elected as a member of parliament (MP) in 2008, leader of the Liberal Party in 2013, and has been prime minister since 2015 after defeating the then Stephen Harper-led Conservatives. There is no obvious replacement for Trudeau after deputy prime minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland resigned last month , citing "costly political gimmicks," unrestrained spending and being at odds over the approach to the "grave challenge" of aggressive US nationalism. US president-elect Donald Trump has threatened a 25pc tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico unless they tighten borders to crack down on drug trafficking and illegal migration into the US. Trudeau's plan to resign does not change the Conservative party's plans to call for new elections, Poilievre said today. "Every Liberal MP in power today and every potential leadership contender fighting for the top job helped Justin Trudeau break the country over the last nine years," he said. If elected, Poilievre plans to cut a number of environmental programs championed by the Liberals, including the carbon tax. The Conservatives support the continued use of oil and gas, exploration for hydrocarbons, and pipeline construction. The next federal election must occur on or before 25 October this year, according to the electoral calendar. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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