PdV hopes to retain Curacao terminal, not refinery

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Oil products
20/12/18

Venezuelan state-owned PdV is hoping to retain access to Curacao's Bullen Bay terminal after its lease expires in December 2019, but the associated Isla refinery on the Dutch-controlled island has lost strategic value for the company, Venezuelan officials tell Argus.

The century-old refinery, which has nameplate capacity of 335,000 b/d, barely operated in 2018 because of a lack of feedstock, maintenance and domestic utility services. Normally the facility processed around 220,000 b/d.

A senior Venezuelan energy ministry official said PdV no longer has any commercial or financial interest in the refinery. "Isla has lost its strategic importance as a refining center for PdV," the official said. "PdV can't supply the crude Isla needs, can't afford imported crude from other suppliers and doesn't have the financial resources to maintain the refinery even in nominal operating capacity."

"Bullen Bay is very important to PdV's export logistics, but PdV isn't interested in spending up to $3bn to upgrade the refinery," official added.

Bullen Bay is a critical transshipment hub for PdV's export operations, particularly involving shipments to China, India and close ally Cuba. PdV also leases storage on the other Dutch Caribbean islands of Aruba and St Eustatius, and owns the 10mn bl Bopec storage facility on Bonaire.

The value of the logistical network was highlighted in May, when US independent ConocoPhillips imposed pre-judgment attachments on PdV's Dutch Caribbean assets as a way to force PdV to honor a $2bn arbitration award for the 2007 takeover of the US firm's Venezuelan assets. PdV reached a settlement with ConocoPhillips in August, and has complied with an initial $500mn cash and in-kind payment, the US company confirms. PdV is otherwise in default on billions of dollars in bond, commercial and arbitration debt.

PdV's export operations would be significantly impaired if it loses access to Bullen Bay, according to a company official at the main Venezuelan oil terminal of Jose. PdV lacks sufficient domestic storage and terminal capacity to compensate for a potential loss of access to Curacao, although continued access to Bopec, Aruba and NuStar's St. Eustatius terminal would soften the blow.

Venezuela's current production of just over 1mn b/d and significant oil-backed debt commitments and barter deals leave little room to supply crude to Curacao, the Venezuelan officials say.

Curacao recently selected Saudi Aramco's US refining subsidiary Motiva Enterprises as the preferred bidder to manage and operate the Isla refinery after PdV's long-term lease expires, with a possible "early step-in" to restart the facility that PdV has effectively abandoned.

The island government's refinery owner, RdK, aims to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Motiva in January. Local utility services to the refinery were recently repaired in anticipation of a restart by PdV. For Curacao, some 2,000 local jobs are at stake.

Neither Motiva nor PdV have commented on the planned transition to a new refinery operator, but a senior executive close to the talks confirmed them.

"We are watching and waiting to see if the reported negotiations reach a firm MOU, but these are always complicated with uncertain outcomes," the Venezuelan energy ministry official said.

"Curacao tried and failed to reach a deal with the Chinese over a year ago. The negotiations with Motiva could fail too," the official added, referring to Curacao's aborted deal with China's state-owned Guangdong Zhenrong Energy (GZE) GZE and a related company Baota.

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26/11/24

Traders expect Opec+ to delay output increase

London, 26 November (Argus) — Vitol, Trafigura and Gunvor representatives today suggested that Opec+ members would probably continue to delay their plan to start increasing crude production. The comments from three of the world's biggest trading firms come just days before the Opec+ alliance is set to hold a ministerial meeting on 1 December to decide its output policy for next year. At the top of the agenda is whether eight members will begin returning 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" production cuts over a 12-month period starting in January — three months later than originally planned. "I think there's no room for them to increase," Gunvor chief executive Torbjorn Tornqvist said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London today. "So far they've been very disciplined and they've made the right call not to add any oil," he said. Most forecasters predict weak oil demand next year, with the market flipping into a surplus. "I suspect that the barrels coming back will again be deferred," Trafigura's global head of oil Ben Luckock said. "Exactly how long? Probably not that far, but they have the choice to be able to continue to [delay] and they probably don't enjoy the price right now." The front-month Ice Brent crude futures is currently trading around $73/bl, around $20/bl below where prices were before Opec+ announced its initial output cut in October 2022. The alliance has reduced output by about 4mn b/d since then, Argus estimates. "The likelihood is that Opec will try to manage the market through the next two to three months to wait to see how some of these geopolitical aspects solve themselves," Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy said. All three executives pointed to geopolitical uncertainties such as the incoming US administration's Iran sanctions policy, the trajectory of the Ukraine-Russia war and the conflict in the Middle East as potential market movers in 2025. Luckock also stressed the importance of compliance for the Opec+ alliance. "I think compliance is a huge deal, because a cheating Opec doesn't yield higher prices." Members including Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia have tended to exceed their production targets this year, tarnishing the credibility of the alliance. But a long-running Saudi-led effort to get these countries to comply and compensate appears to be bearing fruit. The three executives also gave their traditional forecasts for what the oil price would be in 12 months. Tornqvist said he expected prices to be similar to today's levels at $70/bl, which he described as "fair" given the world's large spare production capacity and declining production costs. Luckock said it was a "mug's game" forecasting 12-months out, particularly given the range of geopolitical uncertainties on the horizon. When pressed for a number he settled on $75/bl, but said this was not particularly useful to anyone. Hardy stuck with his previous forecast of $70-80/bl. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump tariffs will divert TMX crude from USWC

26/11/24

Trump tariffs will divert TMX crude from USWC

Houston, 26 November (Argus) — President-elect Donald Trump's plans to impose tariffs on imports from Canada could divert most of the crude exported via the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline away from US west coast refiners to Asia-Pacific. Flows from Canada's newest pipeline might shift after Trump, via social media late on Monday, announced plans to slap a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada. TMX, which expanded capacity on the Trans Mountain system to 890,000 b/d and gave Asia-Pacific buyers access to heavy sour crude produced in Alberta's oil sands, would have to direct all its flows to Asia if US west coast demand weakens. Tariffs on crude imports from Canada would force US west coast refiners to turn elsewhere. Refiners in the region have increased purchases of Canadian grades since the May commencement of the pipeline. Cheaper prices and closer proximity to Vancouver, where TMX crude loads, allowed the heavy sour crudes to find favor along the US west coast. But the proposed tariffs would strengthen TMX prices, no longer making it the cheapest heavy sour option. About 313,000 b/d of mostly heavy sour Canadian crude has loaded at Vancouver's Westridge terminal in the six months since the pipeline made its debut, according to analytics firm Vortexa. US west coast refiners received around 145,000 b/d since the pipeline came on line in May, up from less than 40,000 b/d a year earlier. Most TMX crude destined for the US west coast has gone to California refiners, with Marathon, Chevron and Phillips 66 emerging as consistent buyers. Around 34mn bl of TMX crude has loaded for Asia-Pacific, or about 161,000 b/d. China, the largest buyer in Asia-Pacific, has purchased about 83pc of those barrels, Vortexa data shows. Also, Latin American barrels could see a resurgence after being displaced by TMX in the region. Latin American medium and heavy sours, like Napo and Oriente, could see a resurgence in demand as well, after TMX displaced those grades. In the first six months after TMX, imports of Napo and Oriente fell by 14pc. Brazilian and Guyanese crudes could also see higher demand in the region, according to market participants. But Mexican crude flows could also be limited by Trump's tariffs. Imports from Mexico have been declining since TMX's May commencement, dropping 65pc in the pipeline's first six months of service. But refiners still import the grades, taking roughly 3.5mn bl, or 16,7000 b/d since the pipeline began operating. By Rachel McGuire Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Norden agrees marine biodiesel deal with Meta

26/11/24

Norden agrees marine biodiesel deal with Meta

London, 26 November (Argus) — Danish shipping company Norden has agreed with tech giant Meta to utilise marine biodiesel blends on operated vessels. The deal is based on Norden's book-and-claim, a system that can be used to deliver proof of sustainability (PoS) documentation to customers to offset the latter's scope 3 emissions and fulfil their voluntary demand. The PoS can be obtained on a mass-balance system, allowing shipowners flexibility with regards to the port at which a blend can be bunkered. Norden did not specify which marine biodiesel blends it will use as part of this agreement, but said the biofuel will be ISCC-certified and will have an 80-90pc greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction potential. The agreement follows recent drops in Argus assessments for marine biodiesel blends comprising Advanced Fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) 0 in the ARA trading and refining hub. By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nigeria restarts Port Harcourt refinery: Update

26/11/24

Nigeria restarts Port Harcourt refinery: Update

Recasts and adds details throughout London, 26 November (Argus) — Nigeria's state-owned NNPC said today it has restarted its 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt refinery after three and a half years offline. Product loadings began today after the plant's smaller, 60,000 b/d capacity crude distillation unit (CDU) came into operation. This gradual restart had been planned by Italian engineering firm Maire Tecnimont, which has been rehabilitating the plant under a $1.5bn contract, although a number of deadlines announced by NNPC have been missed. Refined products from Port Harcourt will add to the gasoline that has been supplied since September from the 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery. Product imports are likely to fall, an industry source said. Nigerian downstream regulator NMDPRA's head Farouk Ahmed said products from Port Harcourt will be made available nationwide and would stoke price competition. Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported an average national gasoline price of 1,185/litre (70¢/l) for October, a rise of 88pc on the year and 15pc from September. The price of diesel, which has been deregulated since 2003, was an average N1,441/l in October, NBS said, up by 43pc on the year and by 2pc on the month. The Dangote Group dropped its ex-gantry gasoline prices on Sunday, 24 November, to N970/l from N990/l. Nigerian importers already appear under pressure to compete with Dangote on product pricing, which the Port Harcourt start-up may exacerbate. A local trader said he has found gasoline trading economics most workable when lifting from Dangote ex-single point mooring (SPM) and delivering to coastal ports such as Port Harcourt and Warri in Nigeria's southeast, where truck deliveries from Dangote would prove uneconomic. Nigeria's presidency and NMDPRA's Ahmed urged NNPC to now bring back online its 125,000 b/d Warri and 110,000 b/d Kaduna refineries, which have been closed since 2019. NNPC has opened a combined tender for operating and maintaining these. The outcome of a similar tender for Port Harcourt is unclear. Nigeria would become a net products exporter when Warri and Kaduna come online, NMDPRA's Ahmed said today. A source at the regulator said exports might become vital to Nigerian refiners. "The patronage for petroleum products is low and Nigeria is oversupplied," the source said, attributing the latest Dangote price cut to competition with imports and weak demand. The prospect of Port Harcourt running at its nameplate capacity is in doubt, sources said. It would at best reach 40-50pc of capacity, the industry source said, which would focus on mainly local gasoline deliveries. Port Harcourt was shut in 2020 after several years of low capacity utilisation. NNPC previously said it expects the initial 60,000 b/d phase to produce 12,000 b/d of gasoline, 13,000 b/d of diesel, 8,600 b/d of kerosine, 19,000 b/d of fuel oil and 850 b/d of LPG in the first year of resumed operations. By Adebiyi Olusolape and George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Bimco develops FuelEU clause for charter parties

26/11/24

Bimco develops FuelEU clause for charter parties

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