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CO2 prices soar as Germany hints at permit cancellation

  • Spanish Market: Emissions
  • 15/07/19

Front-year delivery carbon allowances under the EU emissions trading system (ETS) changed hands at more than €28/t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) for the first time in more than 11 years last week, after the German government indicated that it would be willing to cancel permits as part of its plans to phase out coal-fired power plants.

The EU ETS December 2019 contract ended trading last week at €28.78/t CO2e, having risen by a combined €2.40/t CO2e, or more than 9pc, over the course of the week — the product's largest week-on-week rise since the week beginning 1 April (see chart). This closing value was the highest for any front-year delivery EU ETS product since 1 July 2008.

The vast majority of the week's gains — €2.21/t CO2e — came in the final three trading sessions, after German environment minister Svenja Schulze confirmed on 10 July that her department would back a recommendation to cancel a proportional share of EU ETS allowances to offset the probable reduction in demand for carbon permits that would be caused by the country's closure of coal and lignite-fired units.

The December 2019 contract rose by €1.61/t CO2e on the day of Schulze's announcement — the product's largest day-on-day increase since 27 February — although part of this rise was driven by the absence of any fresh supply entering the market, because of the continuing Brexit-related suspension of auctions of UK-issued allowances.

EU ETS market prices have also historically been particularly susceptible to upward moves during July trading, as market participants expect thinner supplies in August — when allowance auction volumes are halved amid expectations of weaker holiday demand. The carbon market's front-year product has gained month-on-month value during July in all but one of the past six years in anticipation of these reduced supplies.

EU ETS price gains last week also drew support from weather forecasts pointing to the likelihood of another warm spell across large parts of Europe towards the end of July, which could boost the requirement for thermal forms of power generation to meet stronger demand for cooling. Highs of up to 30˚C are expected in Berlin by 20 July, while daytime levels in Paris could exceed 31˚C.

But an increase in thermal power output is unlikely to boost spot demand for carbon allowances as much as it might have done in previous years, with German coal-fired plants remaining firmly behind gas-fired units in the country's expected power sector merit order.

German gas-fired plants are on track to produce more power than coal-fired units for a second consecutive month in July, and for the third month this year, while wind farms remain on track to displace lignite units as the country's largest source of electricity over an entire year for the first time.

Auction demand, traded volumes

Last week's price spike resulted in a significant increase in primary market auction demand and secondary market traded volumes. The three auctions of EU-wide allowances drew bids for an average of roughly 7.4mn permits each, compared with an average of just 5.5mn for all of the sales in 2019 so far.

The auction on 11 July attracted particularly strong demand, with bids submitted for 8.7mn permits, as participants rushed to secure available allowances in the wake of Schulze's announcement before further price rises. This volume bid for was the most for any EU ETS primary market auction this year, and was more than three times the quantity of allowances made available for sale.

Stronger demand for carbon allowances was also reflected in the traded volumes of permits last week. An average of 18.8mn December 2019 delivery permits changed hands at the Intercontinental Exchange during each session last week, compared with a 17.6mn/d average for the whole of the year so far (see chart). More than 30mn front year delivery allowances traded on the exchange on 10 July alone, which was the most for any day since 10 April.

Outlook

A full five-day EU ETS primary market auction schedule returns this week, as a sale of Polish-issued permits will be held on 17 July, while an auction for 892,000 EU-wide aviation allowances is also due to take place that day.

This supply boost could limit the potential for further gains, although the carbon market is likely to find increased support and buying interest towards the end of July as August's supply crunch looms.

EU ETS Dec 19 price change by week €/t CO2e

EU ETS December 2019 contract

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01/04/25

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

New York, 1 April (Argus) — The American Petroleum Institute and biofuel-supporting groups told Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials at a meeting today that the agency should sharply raise advanced biofuel blend mandates for 2026. The coalition told EPA that it supported a biomass-based diesel mandate next year of 5.25bn USG, up from 3.35bn USG this year, and a broader advanced biofuel mandate, including the cellulosic category, at 10bn Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, up from 7.33bn RINs this year, according to three different groups that attended the meeting. Both mandates would be record highs for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. Soybean oil futures and RIN credit prices have risen sharply over the past week on optimism that oil and biofuel interests were working to coordinate volume mandate requests for consideration by President Donald Trump's administration. The coalition is also pushing the agency to set a total conventional volume requirement at 25bn RINs, which would keep an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat at 15bn USG. Ethanol groups had previously eyed a mandate even higher, but limits on the amount of ethanol that can be blended into gasoline make much more-stringent requirements a tough sell to oil refiners. The coalition provided no specific request for the cellulosic biofuel subcategory, where most credit generation comes from biogas. Credits in that category are more expensive, but price concerns have been less potent recently given an EPA proposal to lower previously set cellulosic obligations, signaling that future volume requirements can be cut, too. EPA is aiming to finalize new RFS volume mandates by the end of the year if not earlier, people familiar with the administration's thinking have said. EPA officials signaled at the meeting they were working urgently on the rulemaking. "The agency is intent on getting the RFS program back on the statutory timeline for issuing renewable volume obligation rules," EPA said, declining to comment further on its plans for the rule. The RFS program requires oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. Under the program's unique nesting structure, credits from blending lower-carbon biofuels can be used to meet obligations for other program categories. One gallon of corn ethanol generates 1 RIN, but more energy-dense fuels earn more RIN credits per gallon. Some disagreements persist While groups at the meeting were aligned around high-level mandates, how administration officials and courts treat small refinery requests for exemptions from RFS requirements could undercut those targets. Groups present were broadly aligned on asking EPA not to grant widespread exemptions, though there is still disagreement in the industry about how best to account for exempted volumes when deciding requirements for other refiners. Groups present at the meeting today included the American Petroleum Institute and representatives of biofuel producers and crop feedstock suppliers. Some groups that previously engaged with the coalition's efforts to project unity to the Trump administration were not present. And some groups more historically skeptical of the RFS and more supportive of small refinery exemptions — including the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers — have not been closely involved. Fuel marketer groups notably did not attend the meeting after a representative sparred with others in the coalition at an American Petroleum Institute meeting last month. Some retail groups, including the National Association of Convenience Stores and the National Association of Truck Stop Operators, instead sent a letter to EPA today arguing that the groups pushing steep volumes are discounting potential headwinds to the sector from new tax credit policy. Some of the groups advocating for higher biofuel volumes have pointed to high production capacity and feedstock availability, but have preferred to ignore thornier issues like tax credits, lobbyists say. "An overly aggressive increase in advanced biofuel blending mandates under the RFS will be punitive for American consumers" without extending a long-running $1/USG tax credit for biomass-based diesel blenders, the retailers' letter said. That incentive expired last year and was replaced by the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit, which offers subsidies to producers instead of blenders and throttles benefits based on carbon intensity. Generally lower credit values for biomass-based diesel — coupled with the US government's delays setting final regulations on qualifying for the credit — have spurred a sharp drop in biofuel production to start the year. Without a blenders credit, the RFS volume mandates pushed by some groups could increase retail diesel prices by 30¢/USG, the fuel marketers estimate, a potential political headache for a president that ran on curbing consumer costs. Other biofuel groups say that extending the credit would be an uphill battle this year, with some lawmakers and lobbyists instead focused on legislatively tweaking the 45Z incentive's rules to benefit crop feedstocks instead of reverting wholesale to the prior tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Singapore, Peru sign Article 6 carbon deal


01/04/25
01/04/25

Singapore, Peru sign Article 6 carbon deal

London, 1 April (Argus) — Singapore and Peru have signed an agreement to trade carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The deal will provide the foundation for Singapore to hit its climate targets by buying carbon credits from Peru, while channelling finance to the latter for scaling its climate projects. Carbon credits traded under Article 6 are called Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (Itmos). They count towards the buyer's nationally determined contribution and must meet several criteria, such as featuring a letter of authorisation from the host country. Market sources have suggested that "logistical barriers" have complicated the issuance of letters of authorisation, heavily limiting the pool of credits that can be traded as Itmos. Towards the end of last month, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change issued a template for letters of authorisation establishing precisely what information a host country must receive from project developers in order to authorise their credits for trade credits under Article 6. The deal is Singapore's first with a Latin American country, which host some of the largest nature-based projects in the world in reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation and afforestation, reforestation and revegetation project areas. Singapore has signed similar Article 6 agreements with Papua New Guinea, Ghana and Bhutan. By Felix Todd Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU publishes CO2 car standard tweak proposal


01/04/25
01/04/25

EU publishes CO2 car standard tweak proposal

Brussels, 1 April (Argus) — The European Commission has published the long-awaited proposal to give automobile manufacturers more flexibility in complying with the bloc's CO2 reduction targets for cars and passenger vehicles in 2025, 2026 and 2027. Those three years would be assessed jointly, rather than annually, averaging out fleet emission performance. EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said the additional compliance flexibility shows that the commission has "listened" but the EU is still maintaining its zero-emission targets [for new vehicles from 2035]. "Predictability in the sector is crucial for long-term investments," said Hoekstra. The commission urged the European Parliament and EU member states to reach agreement on the targeted amendment "without delay". German centre-right member Jens Gieseke said there is a "broad majority" in parliament to fast-track approval for May. He noted that the car industry faces over €15bn ($16bn) in penalties for non-compliance with the CO2 standards. A member of parliament's largest EPP group, Gieseke also called for the commission to go further towards technological neutrality. "We need different kinds of fuels, e-fuels, biofuels, every fuel which could help to reduce CO2 should be recognized," he added. This second step, withdrawing the phase-out of internal combustion engines (ICE) from 2035 onwards, Gieseke noted, should come in the last quarter of 2025. German Green MEP Michael Bloss disputed the figure of €15bn in potential fines put forward by automotive industry association ACEA. "Even in the worst-case scenario, the total fines for all car manufacturers would not exceed €1bn," said Bloss. "Car manufacturers have had enough time to adjust their production planning. Many have done so," Bloss said, pointing to Automaker Volvo. Under the current 2019 regulation, fines should be imposed on manufacturers for each year in 2025–2029 when they do not reach their specific fleet-wide target CO2 reductions, compared to 2021 values. But manufacturers have the option to form compliance pools with other firms. "European car manufacturers are already talking to Tesla or Chinese manufacturers about so-called pooling, which must be stopped quickly," said EPP climate and environment spokesman Peter Liese. "We want to maintain climate targets, but not make Elon Musk richer through European legislation," said Liese. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU commission's CO2 tweak for cars imminent: Update


31/03/25
31/03/25

EU commission's CO2 tweak for cars imminent: Update

Updates with likely date for approval Brussels, 31 March (Argus) — The European commission could approve a legal proposal for a limited revision of the bloc's 2019 regulation setting CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (LCVs) on 1 April, an official said. A draft proposal circulating does not change the substance of the 2019 rules but specifies a three-year compliance period (2025-2027) used to calculate potential excess emissions premiums. And the 29-page legal proposal does not alter the bloc's 2030 emissions reduction target to reduce economy-wide CO2 emissions by 55pc, compared to 1990. Nor does it lower the overall CO2 emission standards, the commission said. If agreed by the European Parliament and EU member states, the "one-off" three-year compliance period over 2025-2027, instead of an annual assessment, would provide additional flexibility for vehicles manufacturers, while maintaining investor certainty and predictability, the commission added. The 2019 regulation requires annual EU fleet-wide average CO2 emissions from new cars and new vans to be reduced in five-year intervals. For each year in 2025–2029, a target reduction of 15pc, compared with 2021 values, would normally be applied. Without any legal change approved by parliament and EU states, manufacturers exceeding their specific emissions targets, would have to pay excess emission premiums of €95 per g/km for each new vehicle registered. The commission is also "accelerating" work on a review that will commence "in good time this year", said the commission's energy and climate spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen. But she had "nothing new" on whether compliant fuels could be expanded beyond e-fuels to include other low-carbon and zero-carbon, such as biofuels. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU commission expects CO2 tweak for cars soon


31/03/25
31/03/25

EU commission expects CO2 tweak for cars soon

Brussels, 31 March (Argus) — The European commission expects to "very soon" release a legal proposal for a limited revision of the bloc's 2019 regulation setting CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (LCVs). A draft proposal circulating does not change the substance of the 2019 rules but specifies a three-year compliance period (2025-2027) used to calculate potential excess emissions premiums. And the 29-page legal proposal does not alter the bloc's 2030 emissions reduction target to reduce economy-wide CO2 emissions by 55pc, compared to 1990. Nor does it lower the overall CO2 emission standards, the commission said. If agreed by the European Parliament and EU member states, the "one-off" three-year compliance period over 2025-2027, instead of an annual assessment, would provide additional flexibility for vehicles manufacturers, while maintaining investor certainty and predictability, the commission added. The 2019 regulation requires annual EU fleet-wide average CO2 emissions from new cars and new vans to be reduced in five-year intervals. For each year in 2025–2029, a target reduction of 15pc, compared with 2021 values, would normally be applied. Without any legal change approved by parliament and EU states, manufacturers exceeding their specific emissions targets, would have to pay excess emission premiums of €95 per g/km for each new vehicle registered. The commission is also "accelerating" work on a review that will commence "in good time this year", said the commission's energy and climate spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen. But she had "nothing new" on whether compliant fuels could be expanded beyond e-fuels to include other low-carbon and zero-carbon, such as biofuels. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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