Washington 'embargoes' Venezuela assets: Update 2

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Oil products
06/08/19

Adds comment from Guaido, Bolton.

The US has issued a blanket prohibition on the sale or transfer of Venezuelan government property in the US, including assets that belong to state-owned PdV.

An executive order by President Donald Trump, issued yesterday, blocks the transfer of any property or shares of property in the US held by the Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro's government or anyone determined by the Treasury and State departments to be supporters of the Venezuelan government. The decision prohibits the sale of any interest in US independent refiner Citgo, Venezuela's most valuable overseas asset, after the country's creditors won a key US court victory in the pursuit of unpaid debts.

"Given this measure, Citgo and all of its assets are protected," Venezuela's National Assembly leader Juan Guaido said in a tweet. "In addition, any debt that the regime intends to incur with assets of the nation will be illegal. Anyone who wants to benefit from the crisis will be driven away."

The US and more than 50 western governments recognize Guaido as Venezuela's interim president. Yesterday's designation exempts the interim Guaido government and the National Assembly, as well as humanitarian aid.

Former Canadian mining firm Crystallex is pursuing shares of Citgo to satisfy a $1.4bn arbitration award against Venezuela. The Venezuelan opposition lobbied the US to block any such transfer following last week's ruling by the US Third Circuit Court of Appeals upholding Crystallex's efforts. The decision could lead to an auction of the controlling company's shares, a move that has rattled lenders and affirmed a path for companies seeking payment for more than $150bn in arbitration awards and other debt.

Crystallex did not have an immediate comment. Licenses exempting certain business — including those for PdV-owned US independent refiner Citgo and Chevron's minority stake in a Venezuelan synthetic crude joint venture with PdV — remain in place. Most licenses allowing for winding down business with Venezuelan government entities have expired. The new requirements extend prohibitions against financial transactions beyond the Office of Foreign Assets Control's (Ofac) specially designated nationals and blocked persons list (SDN).

Guaido has installed directors of Citgo and PdV, an action upheld by the Delaware Chancery Court late last week. But the opposition leader has not expanded his control inside Venezuela, and an attempt to depose President Nicolas Maduro's government fizzled out earlier this year.

Trump and his administration officials previewed the executive order as an economic "embargo" against Venezuela. Under that interpretation, Venezuela joins Iran and Cuba on a short list of countries the US has placed under an economic embargo that would discourage other countries from doing business with those nations.

But Trump's order does not impose secondary sanctions and is limited to Venezuelan government assets in the US, according to Doug Jacobson, partner in law firm Jacobson Burton Kelley.

Trump's order was issued ahead of today's conference on Venezuela in Lima, Peru, where governments that recognize Guaido as leader will discuss plans for Venezuela's political transition and economic recovery. The US and other donors are due to unveil extensive plans for restoring Venezuela's battered oil sector and economy once Maduro steps down and Guaido takes over as president.

"Maduro is hoping to wait out the international community and the people of Venezuela," US national security adviser John Bolton said at that conference. "We show here today that the international community remains steadfast in its commitment to increase the pressure and accelerate a peaceful transition to Venezuela's only legitimate government institution, the National Assembly."

But the prospect of a government transition in Venezuela remains remote as Maduro maintains control over the country. And the US administration has had to contend with the possibility that the Venezuelan assets under Guaido's control may have been lost to debt-holders.

The US imposed sanctions on Venezuela in January to cut off revenue to the Maduro government and support new elections. US crude imports from Venezuela, once the third-largest supplier of heavy, sour crude, fell to zero in May.

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06/11/24

Mexican peso plummets on Trump win

Mexico City, 6 November (Argus) — The Mexican peso fell sharply against the US dollar as markets priced in potential retaliation against Mexico following former president's Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. "A Republican Senate majority and potential House win raise the chances of Trump's radical reforms, which could hurt Mexico's economic dynamism," said a financial analyst from Mexican bank Monex in a note today. The peso initially dropped around 3pc to Ps20.71/$1 early today, hitting a two-year low before recovering to Ps20.20/$1 by midday. The peso may weaken further, as Mexico is vulnerable to tariff hikes amid strained relations over issues like immigration and the opioid crisis, according to a desk report from a major Mexican bank. Trump repeatedly threatened tariffs on Mexico during his presidential campaign, most recently pledging a 25pc tariff on all Mexican imports unless President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration launches a severe crackdown on Mexico's drug cartels, which ship fentanyl and other drugs across the border to the US. Recent constitutional amendments in Mexico, including judicial reforms and proposed eliminations of independent regulators, may also add downward pressure on the peso, according to the report. "The government's goal to direct private-sector involvement could limit market forces," it noted. Mexico's state-owned oil company Pemex typically offsets peso depreciation due to its dollar-denominated oil export revenues, which help cover increased import costs. "Pemex's exports and domestic sales are tied to international hydrocarbon prices, providing a natural hedge," the company stated in its most recent report. Still, analysts warn that Pemex's focus on domestic refining over crude exports could erode this hedge, leaving it more exposed to foreign exchange swings on USD-denominated debt. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop 29 finance talks need leadership after Trump win

06/11/24

Cop 29 finance talks need leadership after Trump win

Edinburgh, 6 November (Argus) — Donald Trump's US presidential election victory will likely affect finance negotiations during the UN Cop 29 climate summit starting next week, but the US can still play a role while other developed countries step up to the plate, according to observers. Key negotiations at Cop on a new finance goal for developing nations, the so-called NCQG, could be "severely undermined" by Trump's victory, as the prospect of Washington withdrawing from the Paris Agreement may discourage other countries from engaging with US officials, non-profit IISD's policy adviser Natalie Jones told Argus . Trump pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement during his last term in office, calling it "horrendously unfair", and he has signalled he will do so again. "This could potentially weaken ambitions" at Cop 29, but it is unlikely to derail negotiations, Jones said. Observers agree that the US can still play a role in talks on the new finance goal, a key topic at this year's summit. Parties to the Paris deal will seek to agree on a new finance goal for developing nations, following on from the current $100bn/yr target, which is broadly recognised as inadequate. "The Biden administration still has a critical window to support vulnerable nations' calls to mobilise climate finance and deliver a strong climate target," civil society organisation Oil Change International's US campaign manager Collin Rees told Argus . The Biden administration's delegation, which will still take part in Cop 29, will not change position at this stage, according to Jones. And the US could continue to show some leadership, she said, adding that Washington likely intends to release its 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) early. Countries' new climate plans must be submitted to the UN climate body the UNFCCC by February 2025, but the US could release its NDC at Cop 29 before Trump takes power early next year, she said. "President Biden must do everything he can in the final weeks of his term to protect our climate and communities," including on fossil fuels, Rees said. The prospect of Trump pulling the US out of the Paris accord could cause initial anxiety at Cop 29, Climate Action Network executive director Tasneem Essop said. But "the world's majority recognises that climate action does not hinge on who is in power in the US". "As we saw before and will see again, other countries will step up if the US reneges on their responsibilities and stands back," Essop said. Trump's victory might also present the EU with an opportunity to strengthen its leadership among other developed countries, according to Jones. "It is really on the EU and other countries to step up now," she said. This is a view echoed by German Green lawmaker Michael Bloss, a member of the European Parliament's delegation at Cop 29. "Europe needs to become the adult in the room," Bloss told Argus . The EU cannot rely on the US anymore and must become a global climate leader to ensure success at Cop 29, he said. Meanwhile, Oil Change's Rees stressed that the NCQG is a collective goal. "Other major economies must now step forward to fill the gaps, much as they would have needed to in any scenario given how the US has long refused to pay its fair share," he said. By Caroline Varin and Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iran sounds alarm on gasoline shortage

06/11/24

Iran sounds alarm on gasoline shortage

Dubai, 6 November (Argus) — The new Iranian government has sounded the alarm on an emerging gasoline shortage that looks set to get worse unless new policies are introduced to clamp down on runaway demand growth. Presenting a draft budget for the Iranian year starting on 20 March 2025, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian criticised the existing gasoline rationing system, calling it one of the major hurdles for the proposed bill. Iran has, since 2007, allowed citizens to buy base levels of gasoline at subsidised prices and any additional at a higher price. But the system failed to cap demand and imports sufficiently. In the proposed budget the government has signalled plans to ease shortages, but increasing prices is not on the agenda. A cut to subsidies in 2019 sparked nation-wide protests . "Today the cost of [producing] gasoline — which includes refining costs, transportation costs, and gas station maintenance costs — is about 8000 tomans (80,000 rials)," Pezeshkian said. But consumers only pay 7.5pc of the actual price of gasoline, according to Iran's oil ministry. Iran's gasoline consumption has reached a record high of around 750,000 b/d in the first seven months of the Iranian year that began on 20 March, according to the ministry. Domestic refinery capacity of 670,000 b/d has been unable to satisfy this. To bridge the gap Iran has turned to imports, which has not been easy for the heavily sanctioned country that buys the fuel at market prices. "Around 90 trillion tomans [$1.3bn at the free market rate] was spent to import gasoline this year, which could be increased to 130 trillion tomans [$1.9bn] next year if the [demand growth] trend continues," Pezeshkian warned. Supply-side response If Tehran is unwilling to raise pump prices it will have to add more supply. Work in underway to bringing online an additional fourth train at the Persian Gulf Star (PGS) condensate splitter, and on a 60,000 b/d splitter that made up just one part of the now shelved Siraf project. Consultancy FGE expects these projects to be commissioned by the end of 2025 or early 2026 and "potentially close the gap." The newly-appointed head of state-owned refining company NIORDC, Mohammad Sadegh Azimifar, said using CNG-powered vehicles could reduce the need for more gasoline production. "There are good legal capacities in the country for the development of CNG, including the approval of the energy optimization fund," he said. But CNG has lower mileage and energy content, and CNG filling stations are beset with long queues. "If you have a CNG car, you can only drive it for a day and one will have to wait in long queues to get it refilled, only for it to last for another day", said FGE's Middle East managing director Iman Nasseri. Iran has sufficient reserves of natural gas and LPG, but both of these failed to emerge as a good alternative fuel, he said. The Pezeshkian administration has repeated calls to increase use of public transport and modernise the country's vehicle fleet. But metros and buses are being utilised at maximum capacity and private vehicles are a favourable option in a country with the second-most discounted fuel prices in the world, Nasseri said. Iran is yet to tackle rampant fuel smuggling, with market sources indicating gasoline continues to be illegally shipped to neighbouring countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan and Kazakhstan. Earlier this week, authorities seized around 220,000l of smuggled fuel in several warehouses in Mashhad. While the administration strongly rebukes subsidies, with new vice president Mohammad Reza Aref calling them "unreasonable", they continue to look at solutions that does not include any increase in retail prices, in fear of a repeat of the 2019 protests. But with a lack of infrastructure to capitalize on CNG and limitations in public transportation system, the government may have no choice but to reconsider. By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iraq proposes doubling payment for KRG crude

06/11/24

Iraq proposes doubling payment for KRG crude

Dubai, 6 November (Argus) — Iraq's government has proposed doubling the amount it pays the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) for crude production and transportation costs, as it seeks a compromise aimed at resuming exports from the semi-autonomous northern region. The government on 5 November approved an amendment to the three-year budget passed in 2022, setting compensation at $16/bl. But this remains $10/bl below the KRG ministry of natural resources' calculation of production costs in contracts it signed with international oil companies (IOCs) operating in Iraqi Kurdistan. "The KRG is not yet on board with the new arrangement," a senior Iraqi source with knowledge of the matter told Argus . Another source, with knowledge of IOC thinking, described the move as "a positive development" and said companies are "waiting to see what the Iraqi parliament decides." Parliament must ratify the amendment. The amendment stipulates "production and transportation costs for each field will be estimated fairly by an internationally specialised consulting entity" to be selected mutually by Iraq's oil ministry and the KRG's ministry of natural resources within 60 days. "If no agreement is reached within this period, the Federal Council of Ministers will determine the consulting entity," the government said. Parliamentary finance committee member Narmin Maarouf said the decision is "an important step to resolve one of the outstanding issues between the Kurdistan region and Baghdad." Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has been working on a middle ground agreement that would allow it to pay IOCs operating in Kurdistan in return for a compromise with the KRG and the IOCs over the recovery cost for oil produced in the region. In this case, the KRG has to hand over its crude oil production to state-owned marketing firm Somo. A senior Iraqi government official said told Argus the result of the US presidential election may shift things in Iraq, "but the decision is clear, the Iraqi government wants to solve the issue." Around 470,000 b/d of crude exports from Kurdistan have been absent from international markets since March 2023, when Turkey closed the pipeline linking oil fields in northern Iraq to the export terminals at Ceyhan. That followed an international tribunal ruling that said Ankara had breached a bilateral agreement with Baghdad by allowing KRG crude to be exported without the federal government's consent. Iraq's federal government is finding it difficult to strike a balance between repairing its rift with the KRG and complying with its Opec+ commitments. But the KRG "cannot immediately resume exporting around 400,000 b/d," the Iraqi source said. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK parliament approves SAF mandate from 2025

06/11/24

UK parliament approves SAF mandate from 2025

London, 6 November (Argus) — The UK parliament has approved the proposed sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandate that will come into effect on 1 January, 2025. Obligated suppliers will have to deliver a 2pc share of SAF in 2025, increasing to 10pc in 2030, 15pc in 2035 and 22pc in 2040. The obligation will remain at 22pc from 2040 "until there is greater certainty regarding SAF supply". The obligation arises at the point at which a supplier's jet fuel can be supplied only to UK aviation. Hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA) SAF can be used to meet 100pc of SAF demand in 2025 and 2026, but will be capped at 71pc in 2030 and 35pc in 2040. An obligation for Power-to-Liquid (PtL) SAF will be introduced from 2028 at 0.2pc of total jet fuel demand, rising to 0.5pc in 2030 and 3.5pc in 2040. Buy-out mechanisms will be set at the equivalent of £4.70/l ($6.10/l) and £5.00/l ($6.50/l) for the main and PtL obligations, respectively. "It is projected that, between 2025 and 2040, the SAF mandate could deliver up to 25mn t of SAF, securing a saving of up to 54mn t of carbon dioxide", said transport minister John Hendy. The UK confirmed on 17 July it will introduce the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (Revenue Support Mechanism) bill to support SAF production. The government previously said it aims to introduce the mechanism, which will be industry funded, by the end of 2026 . "Together with the SAF mandate, [the mechanism] will give the investment community confidence to invest in these novel and innovative technologies", Hendy said. By Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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