Viewpoint: VLGC owners upbeat on 2020

Spanish Market: LPG
30/12/19

Owners of very large gas carriers (VLGCs) are upbeat about 2020, with the market in a recovery period. But, new International Maritime Organisation (IMO) regulations on bunker fuels may restrain freight rates and profits.

The three largest publicly-listed VLGC owners returned to profit this year after three years of losses thanks to strong US export growth and rising Asia-Pacific imports that produced high tonne-mile demand. BW LPG posted its highest ever quarterly profit of $117mn in July-September compared with a loss of $2.8mn a year earlier. Dorian LPG and Avance Gas also reversed losses year on year with profits of $40.7mn and $24.7mn, respectively.

The swing to profit came after a downturn that lasted from 2016 to 2018, when rates on the bellwether Mideast Gulf-Japan route dropped below $40/t thanks to a surge in deliveries of newbuild VLGCs. Owners invested heavily in new carriers at the start of this decade to capture rising US LPG exports and increased long-haul voyages. The 127 new VLGCs delivered between 2011 and 2018 swelled the global fleet to 265; utilisation fell to below 80pc. Rates slumped and fierce competition grew between owners.

Shipowners entered into what BW LPG calls a "market recovery" period this year. The Argus Mideast Gulf-Asia Pacific freight assessment reached a four-year high of $80.50/t in October and has averaged $66.50/t since the start of April — the month when owners began to return to profit. Higher spot rates have been driven by stronger tonne-mile demand. Seaborne LPG trade grew by 14-15pc on the year in the third quarter, according to BW LPG and Dorian LPG.

But owners' positivity may be hit if the order book becomes overheated again. It stood at around 13-15pc of the fleet, or 36-41 vessels on order out of 280 operational as of October. By the end of 2019, 18 VLGCs will have joined the fleet, and with a similar number due to arrive in 2020 and 2021 the overall total will rise to more than 310.

"The current order book is sustainable, but it will not take much to tip the balance, so we hope for modest growth in ordering over the coming years," Avance Gas chief executive Ulrik Uhrenfeldt Andersen said.

Owners are taking a mixed approach to implementing the IMO rules on sulphur emissions. BW LPG has fitted exhaust scrubbers on 13pc of its fleet, meaning they can burn high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), at the cost of around $3.5mn a vessel. The company is also investing in LPG dual-fuel engine retrofitting, committing the technology to four vessels, or 9pc of its fleet. Avance Gas plans to retrofit six of its VLGCs with scrubbers in January and February during pre-scheduled drydocking, keeping off-hire time and costs down.

Dorian LPG has already retrofitted four of its ships with scrubbers and expects to convert a further five by the end of 2019. Scrubbers are popular in newbuilds — they are fitted, or ready to be fitted on 27 of the 30 VLGCs ordered in the past two years.

In the absence of scrubbers, owners will have to consume IMO-compliant fuels. This may cause difficulties, with shortages in Asia-Pacific.

Downtime for scrubber retrofitting could cause short-term vessel shortages. And the technology's economic advantages will be questionable if low-sulphur supplies rise and prices drop. Some market participants expect the wide spreads between prices for high-sulphur product and IMO-compliant fuels to narrow as 2020 progresses.

By Hugo Slater and Matt Scotland

Profit of Major VLGC Owners

VLGC Fleet Profile

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18/11/24

Brazil natural gas supplies diversifying

Rio de Janeiro, 18 November (Argus) — Supply in Brazil's growing natural gas market has diversified rapidly in recent months as domestic and international companies expand their foothold. Changes include a slew of new import authorizations granted by hydrocarbons regulator ANP in recent months. Last week alone, ANP authorizated up to 1.7mn m³/d of LNG imports, the 12th approval of the year, allowing as much as 3.8bn m³/yr (10.4mn m³/d) of LNG to reach Brazilian shores. US-based New Fortress Energy has led the pack, signing a bevy of new supply agreements from its regasification terminals in Barcarena port in northern Para state and the Terminal Gas Sul (TGS) in southern Santa Catarina state. New Fortress said it signed more than 45 trillion Btu/yr (860,000 t/yr) of downstream supply commitments across 15 buyers, with an average contract length of 18 years. The terminals emerged as important new destinations this year, with the Para terminal claming 2.2pc market share from January-October and the Santa Catarina terminal capturing about 0.5pc. On 8 November, ANP authorized New Fortress to import up to 1.7mn m³/d of LNG to be distributed by pipeline and small-scale means. It holds a 15mn m³/d import authorization for Barcarena and one for 146,000 m³/d of LNG from Bolivia by truck. Gas trading company Edge has also expanded LNG supply to Brazil. It began operating its TRSP regasification terminal in Sao Paulo earlier this year, catapulting Sao Paulo to a 6pc of share of Brazilian LNG imports in the first nine months of 2024 by selling nearly 1.27mn m³/d of gas. Edge sold 27mn m³ of gas to industrial clients from the terminal on the wholesale market in the third quarter. Shell is also looking to expand its Brazilian gas sales amid growing expectations of a boom in supply from its Vaca Muerta shale reserves in neighboring Argentina. Earlier this month it won authorization to import up to 8mn m³/d of gas by pipeline from Argentina and Bolivia. Shell is also assessing LNG exports from Argentina, which could include sales to Brazil. Shell is also planning to expand LNG imports through the Suape port in Pernambuco state next year. OnCorp expects to begin operating the 14mn m³/d LNG regasification terminal in the port, which Shell will use to supply clients in the region, including gas distributor Copergas. Other companies including Gas Bridge and Blueship are also eyeing LNG imports. Blueship is authorized to import through the port of Navegantes, in Santa Catarina, while Gas Bridge can import through state-controlled Petrobras' terminal in northeastern Bahia state. By Betina Moura Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US inflation rises in October to 2.6pc

13/11/24

US inflation rises in October to 2.6pc

Houston, 13 November (Argus) — US inflation ticked higher in October, led by monthly gains in shelter, a reminder that the last lap in the Federal Reserve's marathon to bring inflation to its long-term target remains a challenge. The consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to an annual 2.6pc in October, in line with analysts' forecasts in a survey by Trading Economics, from 2.4pc in September, which was the lowest since February 2021, the Labor Department reported today. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose at a 3.3pc rate, unchanged on the month. The energy index contracted by 4.9pc over the 12 months, slowing from a decline of 6.8pc through September. The gasoline index fell by 12.2pc, slowing from a 15.3pc decrease the prior month. The fuel oil index fell by 20.8pc. Federal Reserve policymakers last week cut the target rate by a quarter point, following a half-point cut in September that kicked off an easing cycle from then-23-year highs. Inflation has slowed to near the Fed's 2pc target from highs above 9pc in mid-2022 that proved to be a major impetus behind president-elect Donald Trump's victory at the ballot box on 5 November. The CME's FedWatch tool today gives near-80pc odds of another quarter-point cut in December. "The economy can develop in a way that would cause us to go faster or slower" in adjusting rates lower, Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters last week after the Fed decision. The food index rose by an annual 2.1pc, slowing from a 2.3pc gain through September. Shelter rose by an annual 4.9pc, unchanged. Transportation services rose by 8.2pc. New vehicles fell by 1.3pc while used vehicle prices fell by 3.4pc. Services less energy services, viewed as core services, rose by 4.8pc. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2pc in October, a fourth month of such gains after falling by 0.1pc in June. Core inflation rose by 0.3pc for a third month. Shelter accelerated to a 0.4pc monthly gain, accounting for over half of the monthly all-items increase, after a 0.2pc gain. Energy was unchanged in October after falling by 1.9pc in September from the prior month. Food rose by 0.2pc on the month, following a 0.4pc gain. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Review delays Brazil's LPG assistance program

11/11/24

Review delays Brazil's LPG assistance program

Sao Paulo, 11 November (Argus) — Brazil's lower house has removed a proposed LPG assistance program from its urgent voting schedule, submitting it to further review and revisions. The program announced in August is still under deliberation, but officials now expect further revisions before it moves forward and launches on 1 January. The bill may add new controls to avoid fraud, the mines and energy ministry's petroleum, natural gas and biofuels secretary Pietro Mendes said last week during a debate in the lower house about LPG. Congressman Hugo Leal, the bill's overseer, told Argus that he will propose creating LPG cylinders smaller than the typical household 13kg models to ease access for low-income families. Low-income families spend 70pc of their resources on housing and groceries, according to Carlos Ragazzo, a researcher at the Getulio Vargas Foundation. That suggests that the current government financial support has likely been used for monthly expenses rather than substituting firewood usage for cooking with LPG. Consumption of firewood for cooking fell from 2005-2015 (see chart) , thanks to improved economic conditions throughout the country, according to energy research firm EPE. But the share of households that use firewood for cooking has hovered around 25pc since 2015, even after the launch of program to promote LPG cooking use in 2021 to help those families during the Covid-19 pandemic. Leal met with lower house leader Arthur Lira on 5 November to discuss the program's proposals and voting agenda, but no details have emerged since. Almost 1mn Brazilian households cook with biomass only. That represents 1.1pc of the 12.7mn households that use biomass for any energy need. Additionally, 56pc of the biomass-only households are low-income families. A 13kg LPG cylinder in Brazil costs R106.63 ($18.49), on average. That represents 7pc of Brazil's minimum wage. Low-income families usually receive only half of the minimum wage, on average. By Betina Moura Brazil residential energy sources Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Poland's Azoty ramps up PDH/PP operations at Police

08/11/24

Poland's Azoty ramps up PDH/PP operations at Police

Warsaw, 8 November (Argus) — Polish chemical conglomerate Grupa Azoty said it is making progress in ramping up production at its new 437,000 t/yr propane dehydrogenation (PDH) and 429,000 t/yr polypropylene (PP) complex in Police, although it needs time to stabilise output and ascertain the unit's economic feasibility. Azoty said both units are operating even though formal commissioning of the entire project has not yet been yet completed. It is in negotiations with the contractor to undertake final improvements and overcome some defects, it said. Azoty expects to agree with the contractor on final terms of commissioning by the end of this year. Since the start of its operations, the PP plant has produced more than 200,000t and sales of PP reached 60,000t in the third quarter, Azoty said. Azoty sees healthy demand for its PP products from European buyers that want to diversify their supply portfolio to reduce risk in delays to imports from Asia-Pacific. "We see end users want have at least 30pc of their (PP) supplies to come from local European supplies," said plant manager Andrzej Dawidowski. He said the company sells PP through its own distribution as well as through traders that market in Europe and elsewhere. Azoty expects to make adjustments to this model as soon as it stabilises output, which would enable buyers to determine their demand for Azoty's product. Azoty said the Police plant is yet to generate positive earnings, and it requires stable supplies of feedstock propane. It said it is working with suppliers to secure financing to ensure steady propane supplies. Azoty also said the letter of intent with Polish integrated Orlen, about a possible sale of a stake in the PDH/PP project was extended until end of 2024, giving them more time to discuss the possibility of co-operation. By Tomasz Stepien Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Gatun Lake to reach all-time high in Dec: Panama Canal

08/11/24

Gatun Lake to reach all-time high in Dec: Panama Canal

London, 8 November (Argus) — Water levels at Gatun Lake that supplies the Panama Canal will reach an all-time high in December, according to forecasts from the Panama Canal Authority (ACP). This is a significant shift from the start of the year, when water levels were at the lowest January level since 1965 following an extensive El Nino induced-drought in 2023 ( see chart ). ACP expects water levels at the lake to hit 88.9ft on 7 December and then 89ft on 18 December, which if confirmed would break the 88.85ft record registered on 5 December 2022. This time last year water levels were in an 80-82ft range, the lowest on record for the November-December months, which prompted ACP to enforce rigorous transit restrictions that sent shockwaves through LPG and other shipping markets . The change in water levels reflects the transition from El Nino to La Nina, which typically brings more rainfall to Panama. Higher water levels from the onset of the rainy season in May allowed the ACP to gradually lift transits back to full capacity by August . This has helped keep auction prices for transits at the larger Neopanamax locks near initial $100,000 bidding levels — and even outpace demand, with many slots turned away without receiving any bids . Argus ' average weekly auction prices have ranged from $112,900 to $209,389 since July, settling at $136,750 by last week. This is a complete turnaround from a year earlier, when shippers paid as high as nearly $4mn for a single transit. On average, Neopanamax auction prices cost $2.1mn in November 2023. This probably helped support Panama Canal's profits in its financial 2024 year, to $3.45bn from $3.2bn a year earlier despite a 20pc fall in transits because of water-saving restrictions implemented. The ACP said the results reflected strategies such as the "freshwater surcharge, improved water yield through structural and operational upgrades, system enhancements for reservations and auctions, and maritime service operations." Water levels are forecast to gradually decrease again from 23 December with the start of the dry season, which usually lasts by May. By Yohanna Pinheiro Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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