21/11/24
Pemex's lean Zama spending undercuts goals
Mexico City, 21 November (Argus) — State-owned oil company Pemex's limited
budget for developing one of Mexico's most-promising new oil fields is putting
Mexico's crude production and refining goals at risk through 2030. First
production from the Zama field will likely not start until at least 2028 instead
of late next year, as forecast earlier, based on a timeline in a recent
presentation from Pemex. Pemex continues to work on the basic engineering for
the Zama field because of the lack of cash, staff of hydrocarbon regulator CNH
said last week. The latest delay on Zama echoes criticism from when Pemex took
over operating the field in 2022 that it did not have sufficient experience or
funds to carry on with the project, said industry sources. "Unfortunately, the
Pemex budget is always a shadowy mystery," said a person close to the project
who asked not to be named. "There is no transparency or certainty regarding when
they do and do not honor payment commitments." Zama is a shallow-water field
unified in 2022 between Pemex area AE-152-Uchukil and the discovery made in 2017
by a consortium led by US oil company Talos Energy. Pemex holds 50.4pc of the
Zama project while Talos and Slim's subsidiary Grupo Carso have 17.4pc, German
company Wintershall Dea 17.4pc and British company Harbour Energy 12.4pc. The
state-owned company expects to spend $370.8mn to develop Zama in 2025, 64pc less
than the original $1.05bn budget proposed by Pemex for next year, according to
data from CNH. The regulator cleared the change last week, but commissioners
questioned the CNH staff about the new delays. Pemex's original development plan
showed that the company forecast the first crude production by December 2025,
with 2,000 b/d and about 4mn cf/d of gas. The original plan forecast Zama
hitting peak production of 180,000 b/d in 2029, making it Mexico's
second-largest crude producer, only under the Maloob field. President Claudia
Sheinbaum and Pemex's new new chief executive Victor Rodriguez flagged the
importance of shallow-water field Zama and ultra deep field Trion to support
Pemex's oil production target of 1.8mn b/d in the upcoming six years in a
presentation last week. Pemex's new plan is focused on feeding its own refining
system rather than crude exports. The company expects to increase gasoline,
diesel and jet fuel production by 343,000 b/d, according to the plan, but it did
not give a timeline. Pemex produced 491,000 b/d of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel
in the first nine months of 2024. Mexico's proposed 2025 federal budget also
shows lower spending for Zama, at Ps3.1bn ($154mn) for 2025, even less than the
figure approved by CNH on 14 November. Neither Pemex not Talos responded to
requests for additional comment. "Zama is the story of the triumph of ideology
over practicality," said a Pemex source who asked not to be named. The
state-owned company is studying how to bring in new investors to the project
once congress approves secondary laws to implement recent energy reforms, the
source said. But uncertainty over the legal framework and the general
deterioration of Mexico's business climate will make this more difficult, the
Pemex source added. The involvement of Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim, who
acquired 49.9pc of Talos Energy share in Zama last year, brought new hopes that
work at Zama could finally accelerate. Instead, Slim's entrance slowed the
project, as the new partner had to review the project, a former regulator who
asked not to be named said. Talos Energy, the lead operator when the field was
discovered over seven years ago, is now "frustrated" by the poor progress of the
project. "We have Mexico, a great discovery in Zama, we're seven years into it,
and still have not made a final investment decision on it," said Talos Energy
interim chief executive Joseph Mills, in a conference call with investors last
week. "So a lot of frustration there, as you can imagine." By Édgar Sígler Pemex
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