Energy bust threatens farmer earnings

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Fertilizers
30/03/20

Debt-laden farmers face a collapsing energy market that threatens to stunt corn demand and overall revenue after weathering last season's historic flooding and a trade war.

Plunging oil prices and waning gasoline demand during the last two weeks have further crunched ethanol production margins, forcing many manufacturers to idle operations or curtail production during the last two weeks — eroding near-term corn demand.

About 20pc of ethanol plants in the US have idled and another 40-50 facilities curbed output, according to the Renewable Fuels Association.

Between 400mn-500mn bushels of corn may not be consumed if the cuts in ethanol production stretch through May, according to INTL FCStone risk management consultant Jake Moline, amounting to $1.52bn-1.9bn in lost revenue based on the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) average farm price in March.

Farmers will likely re-evaluate crop mixes for this season when faced with potential revenue losses of this magnitude but this is unlikely to be reflected in the USDA's acreage forecast tomorrow, Moline added.

"If you are unsure if that ethanol plant will be running, you are then scratching your head whether or not you are going to plant corn," Moline said.

The US ethanol industry consumes about 38-40pc of domestic corn production, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), and has supported the US as a global leader in corn output since 2007.

The massive expansion of biofuel production in the US — kickstarted by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 — bolstered farmer earnings and fueled growth in the agricultural sector as the nation slipped into the Great Recession.

The timing of the recession "came in during a period right when farm income was taking off, and then it kept going to about 2013," USDA senior economist Carrie Litkowski said.

But as the energy sector shielded the nation's corn sector from a recession 10-12 years ago, it is primed to capsize at-risk farmers still recovering from last season's flooding and the now de-escalating trade war with China.

Farmer debt this year is forecast to balloon to an all-time high of $425.3bn, according to the USDA, while bankruptcy cases continue to amass in the US heartland.

Chapter 12 filings — a form of reorganization specifically for farmers — rose to a new high at 580 cases during the 2019 government fiscal year, which runs from October to September, according to US federal courts data.

President Donald Trump has aimed to keep farmers afloat through subsidies. The Trump administration last year approved the highest amount of federal aid since 2005 after severe rains caused flooding and delayed planting, while the trade war with China severed a major, long-established destination market for soybean growers.

Farmers this year are set to receive another $23.5bn of direct federal assistance after Trump on 27 March signed the massive $2 trillion stimulus package geared to provide economic relief to various industries from the coronavirus disruption.

"We are going to keep our small businesses strong and our big businesses strong," Trump said during the signing ceremony. "And that is keeping our country strong and our jobs strong."

By Connor Hyde

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20/12/24

Viewpoint: EU, UK mandates will drive global SAF demand

London, 20 December (Argus) — Europe will be a primary consumption hub for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in 2025, driven by EU and UK mandates that come into effect in January. The mandates could push European SAF demand above 1.5mn t next year, according to Argus Consulting estimates. There should be more than enough global SAF supply to meet mandated demand in Europe in the early stages of obligations. If all announced projects are completed on time, global capacity could surpass 10mn t/yr in 2025, according to Argus Consulting, with hydrotreated esters and fatty acids synthetic paraffinic kerosene (HEFA-SPK) still the dominant SAF production pathway. But several projects have been hit with delays in the past, and some European majors have scaled back or paused their capacity plans. Actual production is likely to be far lower than nameplate capacity, with the International Air Transport Association (Iata) forecasting global output of 2.1mn t next year . European suppliers may also opt to maximise hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) production over HEFA-SPK. In most HEFA-SPK plants, the production process relies on first hydrotreating vegetable oils and fats, a process aligned with standard HVO production. Renewable diesel demand should increase with higher mandates for renewables in road transport and changes to German and Dutch carryover rules on renewable fuel tickets next year. At the same time, European HVO imports face barriers. Definitive EU anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on Chinese biodiesel and HVO are expected to be imposed by February . And anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties are in place on HVO and biodiesel of US and Canadian origin . SAF is excluded from ADDs on Chinese biofuels. SAF supply has grown at a faster pace than demand this year, pushing the northwest European HEFA-SPK premium to jet fuel to record lows . The European benchmark HEFA-SPK fob ARA range assessment averaged around $2,203/t over 1 January-12 December, down from around $3,016/t in the same period last year. Ready, set, mandate Fuel suppliers will need to incorporate a 2pc share of SAF in their annual EU jet fuel deliveries from next year, with the share rising to 70pc by 2050. Synthetic aviation fuels, such as e-kerosine and hydrogen, must reach a total share of 1.2pc from 2030, rising to 35pc in 2050. The UK's mandate also requires aviation fuel suppliers to hit a 2pc SAF share in 2025, increasing linearly to reach 22pc in 2040. A UK obligation for power-to-liquid SAF will be introduced from 2028 at 0.2pc of total jet fuel demand, rising to 3.5pc in 2040. Separately, London's Heathrow airport aims to increase the share of SAF used to 3pc in 2025 as part of an incentive scheme that helps airlines cover extra costs. Beyond Europe Progress to introduce SAF blending obligations or legislate consumption targets is slower outside of Europe. In China, a pilot programme was launched earlier this year to support domestic SAF uptake. A consumption target of 50,000t was set in the country's five-year plan for 2021-25. Other initiatives in the Asia-Pacific region include South Korea's plan to require all international flights departing from its airports to use a mix of 1pc SAF from 2027 and Singapore's 1pc SAF target by 2026 for flights departing the country. Indonesia plans to require 1pc SAF from 2027, while Malaysia and Hong Kong are also expected to set targets. In the US, the level of priority to be given to renewable aviation fuels is less clear following Donald Trump's election victory. Guidance around a new producers' tax credit, set to come into effect next year, is still pending . The growth of the US SAF market has so far been driven mainly by federal and state financial incentives. By Giulia Squadrin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump backs new deal to avoid shutdown: Update

19/12/24

Trump backs new deal to avoid shutdown: Update

Adds updates throughout Washington, 19 December (Argus) — US president-elect Donald Trump is offering his support for a rewritten spending bill that would avoid a government shutdown but leave out a provision authorizing year-round 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15) sales. The bill — which Republicans rewrote today after Trump attacked an earlier bipartisan agreement — would avoid a government shutdown starting Saturday, deliver agricultural aid and provide disaster relief. Trump said the bill was a "very good deal" that would also include a two-year suspension of the "very unnecessary" ceiling on federal debt, until 30 January 2027. "All Republicans, and even the Democrats, should do what is best for our Country, and vote 'YES' for this Bill, TONIGHT!" Trump wrote in a social media post. Passing the bill would require support from Democrats, who are still reeling after Trump and his allies — including Tesla chief executive Elon Musk — upended a spending deal they had spent weeks negotiating with US House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana). Democrats have not yet said if they would vote against the new agreement. "We are prepared to move forward with the bipartisan agreement that we thought was negotiated in good faith with House Republicans," House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) said earlier today. That earlier deal would have kept the government funded through 14 March, in addition to providing a one-year extension to the farm bill, $100bn in disaster relief and $10bn in aid for farmers. The bill would also provide a waiver that would avoid a looming ban on summertime sales of E15 across much of the US. Ethanol industry officials said they would urge lawmakers to vote against any package without the E15 provision. "Pulling E15 out of the bill makes absolutely no sense and is an insult to America's farmers and renewable fuel producers," Renewable Fuels Association chief executive Geoff Cooper said. If no agreement is reached by Friday at 11:59pm ET, federal agencies would have to furlough millions of workers and curtail services, although some agencies are able to continue operations in the event of a short-term funding lapse. Air travel is unlikely to face immediate interruptions because key federal workers are considered "essential," but some work on permits, agricultural and import data, and regulations could be curtailed. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has funding to get through a "short-term" shutdown but could be affected by a longer shutdown, chairman Willie Phillips said. The US Department of Energy expects "no disruptions" if funding lapses for 1-5 days, according to its shutdown plan. The US Environmental Protection Agency would furlough about 90pc of its nearly 17,000 staff in the event of a shutdown, according to a plan it updated earlier this year. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Congress passes waterways bill

19/12/24

US Congress passes waterways bill

Houston, 19 December (Argus) — The US Senate has passed a bipartisan waterways infrastructure bill, providing a framework for further investment in the country's waterways system. The waterways bill, also known as the Water Resources and Development Act (WRDA), was approved by the Senate in a 97-1 vote on 18 December after clearing the US House of Representatives on 10 December. The WRDA's next stop is the desk of President Joe Biden, who is expected to sign the bill. The WRDA has been passed every two years, authorizing the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) to undertake waterways infrastructure and navigation projects. Funding for individual projects must still be approved by Congress. Several agriculture-based groups voiced their support for the bill, saying it will improve transit for agricultural products on US waterways. The bill also shifts the funding of waterways projects to 75pc from the federal government and 25pc from the Inland Waterways Trust Fund instead of the previous 65-35pc split. "Increasing the general fund portion of the cost-share structure will promote much needed investment for inland navigation projects, as well as provide confidence to the industry that much needed maintenance and modernization of our inland waterway system will happen," Fertilizer Institute president Corey Rosenbusch said. The bill includes a provision to assist with the damaged Wilson Lock along the Tennessee River in Alabama. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

USDA awards more funding to increase fertilizer output

19/12/24

USDA awards more funding to increase fertilizer output

Houston, 19 December (Argus) — The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) awarded over $100mn this week across nine states to increase domestic fertilizer production as the effort to make farmer affordability more favorable continues. About $116mn will be invested through the USDA's Fertilizer Production Expansion Program (FPEP) to help eight facilities expand output in California, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Oklahoma and Wisconsin. Recipients include the Michigan Potash Company, where the construction of a new facility should yield 400,000 metric tonnes (t) annually of high-grade potash, and Farmers Cooperative Association, where funding will expand its existing dry fertilizer facility with additional storage and processing capacity. "When we invest in domestic supply chains, we drive down input costs and increase options for farmers," USDA secretary Tom Vilsack said. Through the FPEP, the USDA has invested $517mn in 76 fertilizer production facilities across 34 states and Puerto Rico. President Joe Biden's administration committed up to $900mn in the program through the Commodity Credit Corporation, which is expected to support long-term investments by strengthening supply chains. Higher US fertilizer prices throughout this year deterred fall demand as lower crop prices forced farmers to sell more of a crop to afford nutrients. The last USDA FPEP funding announcement was in August , when $35mn was granted to boost seven domestic production projects. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Strikes at Australian commodity ports to continue

19/12/24

Strikes at Australian commodity ports to continue

Sydney, 19 December (Argus) — Workers at major commodity ports across Australia will strike next week, in response to stalling negotiations with port operators. Queensland In northern Queensland, unions representing almost 200 workers have notified the Gladstone Ports (GPC) that they plan to launch work stoppages at the LNG and coal hub next week, a source told Argus. The strike actions follow an earlier day-long work stoppage involving over 100 workers at the port that began earlier this week. The dispute between GPC and its workers is centred around wage and rostering proposals. GPC and unions representing its workers have not scheduled any further bargaining meetings, multiple sources have told Argus . Gladstone's ship queue has exceeded 30 ships multiple times since work stoppages began on 17 December. This compared with a queue of 48 ships in December 2023, after Cyclone Jasper forced three other north Queensland ports to turn vessels away for four days. To the south of Gladstone, 100 workers at the Qube-operated Port of Brisbane will also stop working between 23-27 December, according to maritime logistics firm GAC. The stoppage announcement follows a day-long strike at multiple Qube ports , which began on 16 December. Before the strike began, a Qube representative warned that strikes at its ports would "inevitably [cause] disruption to supply chains for key commodities like fertiliser, grain, and steel." The Port of Brisbane is a major oil and meat port. New South Wales Along Australia's eastern coast, workers at Qube's major coal, grain, and fertiliser port in Port Kembla are planning to strike for a longer period of time than their colleagues in other parts of the country. GAC has reported that workers will launch 13 rolling work stoppages at the port between 20 December and 3 January. There are 141 members of the Construction, Forestry and Maritime Employees Union (CFMEU) participated in a strike authorisation vote at the site in early September, and have been engaged in industrial actions since then. Port Kembla also faced a day-long work stoppage earlier this week. Northern Territory Union members in Darwin are planning to not work for 1½ day beginning on 23 December. Like the Port of Brisbane, Darwin tends to handle livestock and oil products. But only 37 workers were eligible to participate in a successful mid-September union ballot authorising work stoppages at the port. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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