Manufacturing slowdown intensifies in Japan

Spanish Market: Coal, Electricity, Metals, Petrochemicals
13/04/20

The slowdown in manufacturing in Japan that had resulted from the outbreak of Covid-19 is intensifying, signalling a greater potential downturn in steel demand over the coming months.

Major car manufacturers in Japan have begun implementing planned output cuts at their domestic assembly plants, to weather falling global demand in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Toyota Motor, the country's biggest car maker, in late March announced its first-ever major suspension of domestic production lines.

But the market deterioration is not showing any signs of abating in the foreseeable future, forcing Japanese car makers to advance or extend additional production line closures. Subaru has extended its planned stoppage of domestic car output by two days to a total of 19 days between 9 April and 1 May, citing further disruption in parts supply. Mitsubishi Motors has also delayed planned restarts of its major production lines by four to 10 days this month.

Falling car output has forced Japanese steel makers to curb steel output. The country's industry ministry (Meti) has projected steel demand from the domestic car sector at 2.6mn t in April-June, down by 8pc from a year earlier and down by 6pc from January-March.

Meti on 9 April forecast the country's April-June crude steel output to decline by 26pc from a year earlier to 19.4mn t, the lowest quarterly output in 11 years since April-June 2009. The ministry did not rule out the possibility of a further output decline during the quarter with potential Covid-19 impact only partially taken into account.

Japan's biggest steel mill Nippon Steel is planning to halt two blast furnaces later this month but could further curtail steel production if demand continues to weaken.

"We are facing unprecedented tough times as there are fears that the manufacturing slowdown is spreading across sectors and globally," Japan;s iron and steel federation chairman Yoshihisa Kitano, also president of JFE Steel, said late in March.

The downturn in Japan's car manufacturing is beginning to have a ripple effect on other manufacturers, adding further uncertainty to Japanese demand for steel materials. Kawasaki Heavy Industry today halted domestic assembly of motorcycles until 6 May in the wake of a sales decline in major global markets. Yamaha Motor is also planning to suspend production of motorcycles and its related components and outboard motors for eight and 16 days respectively during May.

The manufacturing sector, including motor vehicles, ships and industrial machinery, accounts for around 60pc of Japan's ordinary steel output, while the construction sector accounts for the rest.

General contractor Nishimatsu Construction also plans to halt all ongoing construction and development projects in-principle until 6 May. This move also comes in response to the country's declaration of a national emergency in major consumer and industrial areas.

Japan on 8 April began a month-long state of emergency in Tokyo and six other prefectures to stop the spreading coronavirus. But the number of confirmed cases in the country has since doubled to more than 7,000, with additional prefectures such as Aichi, Kyoto and Hokkaido implementing their own sets of measures.

The Japanese government has unveiled a ¥108 trillion ($1 trillion) stimulus package to aid emergency restrictions and to also boost Japan's post-coronavirus economy. The proposed package includes more than ¥240bn to subsidise the manufacturing sector to develop more resilient supply chains. Meti is expected to allocate ¥220bn to Japanese manufacturers to relocate their production facilities back to Japan and ¥24bn to diversify their production bases to multiple countries.

By Rieko Suda

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21/11/24

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

London, 21 November (Argus) — The cost of government measures to support the consumption and production of fossil fuels dropped by almost third last year as energy prices declined from record highs in 2022, according to a new report published today by the OECD. But the level of fiscal support remained higher than the historical average despite government pledges to reduce carbon emissions. In an analysis of 82 economies, data from the OECD and the IEA found that government support for fossil fuels fell to an estimated $1.1 trillion in 2023 from $1.6 trillion a year earlier. Although energy prices were lower last year than in 2022, countries maintained various fiscal measures to both stimulate fossil fuel production and reduce the burden of high energy costs for consumers, the OECD said. The measures are in the form of direct payments by governments to individual recipients, tax concessions and price support. The latter includes "direct price regulation, pricing formulas, border controls or taxes, and domestic purchase or supply mandates", the OECD said. These government interventions come at a large financial cost and increase carbon emissions, undermining the net-zero transition, the report said. Of the estimated $1.1 trillion of support, direct transfers and tax concessions accounted for $514.1bn, up from $503.7bn in 2022. Transfers amounted to $269.8bn, making them more costly than tax concessions of $244.3bn. Some 90pc of the transfers were to support consumption by households and companies, the rest was to support producers. The residential sector benefited from a 22pc increase from a year earlier, and support to manufacturers and industry increased by 14pc. But the majority of fuel consumption measures are untargeted, and support largely does not land where it is needed, the OECD said. The "under-pricing" of fossil fuels amounted to $616.4bn last year, around half of the 2022 level, the report said. "Benchmark prices (based on energy supply costs) eased, particularly for natural gas, thereby decreasing the difference between the subsidised end-user prices and the benchmark prices," it said. In terms of individual fossil fuels, the fiscal cost of support for coal fell the most, to $27.7bn in 2023 from $43.5bn a year earlier. The cost of support for natural gas has grown steadily in recent years, amounting to $343bn last year compared with $144bn in 2018. The upward trend is explained by its characterisation as a transition fuel and the disruption of Russian pipeline supplies to Europe, the report said. By Alejandro Moreano and Tim van Gardingen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

21/11/24

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

Edinburgh, 21 November (Argus) — Developing and developed nations remain at loggerheads on what progress on climate finance and mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions — should look like at the UN Cop 29 climate summit. But Cop 30 host Brazil has reminded parties that they need to stick to the brief, which is finance for developing countries. Concluding a plenary where parties, developed and developing, listed grievances, environment minister Marina Silva recognised "the excellent progress achieved" on mitigation at Cop 28. She listed paragraphs of the Cop 28 deal, including the energy package and its historic call to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. "We are on the right track," she said, talking about mitigation, but "our greatest obligation at this moment is to make progress with regard to financing". "This is the core of financing that will pave our collective path in ambition and implementation at Cop 30," Silva said, adding that $1.3 trillion for developing countries should be "the guiding star of this Cop". Parties are negotiating a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — a new climate finance target — building on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. But developed countries insist that a precise number for a goal can only be produced if there is progress on mitigation and financing structure for the NCQG. "Otherwise you have a shopping basket but you don't know what's in there," EU energy commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said. Some developing nations said they need the "headline number first". Some developing countries, including Latin American and African nations as well as island states, have also complained about the lack of mitigation ambition. Cop is facing one of the "weakest mitigation texts we have ever seen," Panama said. But they also indicated that financial support was missing to implement action. Developed countries at Cop 29 seek the implementation of the energy pledges made last year. "What we had on our agenda was not just to restate the [Cop 28] consensus but actually to enhance and to operationalise that," but the text goes in the opposite direction, Hoekstra said, talking about the latest draft on finance. Whether hints that Brazil has mitigation in focus for next year's summit will be enough to assuage concerns from developed countries at Cop 29 on fossil fuel ambitions remains to be seen. The communique of the G20, which the country hosted, does not explicitly mention the goal to transition away from fossil fuels either. The developed countries' mitigation stance grew firmer after talks on a work programme dedicated to mitigation, the obvious channel for fossil fuel language, was rescued from the brink of collapse last week. Discussions have stalled, but another text — the UAE dialogue which is meant to track progress on the outcomes of Cop 28 — still has options referring to fossil fuels. But in these negotiations too, divisions remain. "The UAE dialogue contains some positive optional language on deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions and the [Cop 28] energy package, E3G said. But Saudi Arabia has made clear that this was unacceptable, while India, which worked to water down a coal deal at Cop 26, is pushing back on the 1.5°C temperature limit of the Paris Agreement. Negotiators are starting to run out of time. Draft after draft, the divide fails to be breached with no agreement on an amount for the finance deal. "We cannot talk about a lower or higher number because there is no number," noted Colombia's environment minister Susana Muhamad. The next iteration should have numbers based on the Cop 29 presidency's "view of possible landing zones". The fact that the draft text on finance has no bridging proposal is a concern, non-profit WRI director of international climate action David Waskow said. Finance was always meant to be the centrepiece of Cop 29. Parties have not formally discussed the goal in more than 15 years, and have been trying to prepare for a new deal through technical meetings for the past two years. But the discussion needs to end in Baku. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

21/11/24

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

Baku, 21 November (Argus) — The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have committed to submit new national climate plans setting out "steep emission cuts", that are consistent with the global 1.5°C temperature increase limit sought by the Paris Agreement. The EU and four countries made the pledge at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan today, and called on other nations to follow suit — particularly major economies. Countries are due to submit new climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — covering 2035 goals to the UN climate body the UNFCCC by early next year. The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have not yet submitted their plans, but they will be aligned with a 1.5°C pathway, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said today. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C. Canada's NDC is being considered by the country's cabinet and will be submitted by the 10 February deadline, Canadian ambassador for climate change Catherine Stewart said today. Switzerland's new NDC will also be submitted by the deadline, the country's representative confirmed. Pamana's special representative for climate change Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez also joined the press conference today. Panama, which is designated as carbon negative, submitted an updated NDC in June. It is planning to submit a nature pledge, Monterrey Gomez said. "It is time to streamline processes to get to real action", he added. The UK also backed the pledge. The UK announced an ambitious emissions reduction target last week. The UAE — which hosted Cop 28 last year — released a new NDC just ahead of Cop 29, while Brazil, host of next year's Cop 30, released its new NDC on 13 November during the summit. Thailand yesterday at Cop 29 communicated a new emissions reduction target . Indonesia last week said that it intends to submit its updated NDC ahead of the February deadline, with a plan placing a ceiling on emissions and covering all greenhouse gases as well as including the oil and gas sector. Colombia also indicated that its new climate plan will seek to address fossil fuels, but it will submit its NDC by June next year . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Australia backs no new coal power call: Correction

20/11/24

Cop: Australia backs no new coal power call: Correction

Corrects missing word in headline London, 20 November (Argus) — Major coal producers Australia and Colombia, along with the EU and 23 other countries including the UK, have pledged not to allow any new unabated coal-fired power generation in their energy systems at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. This comes a day after Colombia, New Zealand and the UK joined a Netherlands-led international coalition focused on phasing out incentives and subsidies for fossil fuels. Most of the coal pact signatories are members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance, under which some countries have committed to phasing out existing unabated coal power generation. Australia is not listed as a member of the alliance, but the cities of Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra are. Unsurprisingly, the list of signatories did not include China or India, the two world's largest coal importers. It also does not include the US, although the country is part of the Powering Past Coal Alliance. "There is no space for new unabated coal in a 1.5°C or even 2°C aligned pathway, yet coal capacity rose by 2pc last year," the pact signatories said today. The pledge focuses on coal-fired generation and does not mention the phasing out of exports or imports. Australia, is the world's second-largest seaborne coal exporter. The country is looking to host Cop 31 in 2026 by outbidding Turkey for the spot. But no realistic policy changes in coal exports is expected from Australia, which will have a federal parliamentary election by May 2025 and winning votes from key coal mining regions in New South Wales and Queensland has proven to be crucial in recent elections. Turkey is on track to overtake Germany as Europe's largest coal-fired generator this year and was not among the signatories of today's coal pledge. Amid calls for a faster phase-down of unabated coal-fired power generation, global coal trade is set to reach a record high of more than 1.5bn t this year , surpassing last year's 1.38bn t, according to IEA data. Coal consumption will probably remain resilient, supported by higher electricity demand growth in China and India. China has not set a new climate plan since 2021, but it is expected to ramp up its ambitions in a new plan due by February 2025. India and Indonesia are strongly encouraging higher coal production to ensure energy security. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in September lowered its forecast for US coal-fired generation in this year but raised its expectation for 2025 . By Shreyashi Sanyal Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesia advances coal-fired power phase-out to 2040

20/11/24

Indonesia advances coal-fired power phase-out to 2040

London, 20 November (Argus) — Indonesia plans to retire all coal-fired power plants within the next 15 years, advancing an earlier target of 2056, President Prabowo Subianto said today. This follows from Subianto's address at the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on 19 November, where he emphasised the importance of global collaboration to achieve green energy transition. He also claimed Indonesia is optimistic it can reach net zero emissions before 2050, a decade ahead of its previous commitment. "We plan to build more than 75GW of renewable energy in the next 15 years [to replace coal-fired power]," Subianto added. His claims come at a time when Indonesia's deputy minister of energy and mineral resources (ESDM) Yuliot Tanjung admitted in a speech today that the country's reliance on coal for electricity is still high. Tanjung said the country has huge potential for solar and hydropower generation, owing to its geographical location, but they require technological developments and large investment. Indonesia has the world's fifth-largest operating coal-fired power capacity of 52.31GW, with about 9.81GW more under construction, according to Global Energy Monitor data. Only about 15pc of Indonesia's total installed generation capacity of more than 90GW is currently powered by renewables. New coal-fired projects have continued to be proposed this year, despite the Indonesian government's previous commitment in 2021 to stop building new coal-fired plants after 2023. In addition to power generation, coal is also heavily utilised in Indonesian industry, which contributed to domestic coal production reaching a record 720mn t so far this year. Indonesia could also be on track for a new output record this year, with ESDM expecting 2024 output to surpass 800mn t, up from 775mn t in 2023, if the current output trend continues for the rest of this year. Indonesia and the Philippines are the two most coal-reliant countries in southeast Asia, according to energy think-tank Ember. By Ashima Sharma Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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