Manufacturing slowdown intensifies in Japan

Spanish Market: Coal, Electricity, Metals, Petrochemicals
13/04/20

The slowdown in manufacturing in Japan that had resulted from the outbreak of Covid-19 is intensifying, signalling a greater potential downturn in steel demand over the coming months.

Major car manufacturers in Japan have begun implementing planned output cuts at their domestic assembly plants, to weather falling global demand in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Toyota Motor, the country's biggest car maker, in late March announced its first-ever major suspension of domestic production lines.

But the market deterioration is not showing any signs of abating in the foreseeable future, forcing Japanese car makers to advance or extend additional production line closures. Subaru has extended its planned stoppage of domestic car output by two days to a total of 19 days between 9 April and 1 May, citing further disruption in parts supply. Mitsubishi Motors has also delayed planned restarts of its major production lines by four to 10 days this month.

Falling car output has forced Japanese steel makers to curb steel output. The country's industry ministry (Meti) has projected steel demand from the domestic car sector at 2.6mn t in April-June, down by 8pc from a year earlier and down by 6pc from January-March.

Meti on 9 April forecast the country's April-June crude steel output to decline by 26pc from a year earlier to 19.4mn t, the lowest quarterly output in 11 years since April-June 2009. The ministry did not rule out the possibility of a further output decline during the quarter with potential Covid-19 impact only partially taken into account.

Japan's biggest steel mill Nippon Steel is planning to halt two blast furnaces later this month but could further curtail steel production if demand continues to weaken.

"We are facing unprecedented tough times as there are fears that the manufacturing slowdown is spreading across sectors and globally," Japan;s iron and steel federation chairman Yoshihisa Kitano, also president of JFE Steel, said late in March.

The downturn in Japan's car manufacturing is beginning to have a ripple effect on other manufacturers, adding further uncertainty to Japanese demand for steel materials. Kawasaki Heavy Industry today halted domestic assembly of motorcycles until 6 May in the wake of a sales decline in major global markets. Yamaha Motor is also planning to suspend production of motorcycles and its related components and outboard motors for eight and 16 days respectively during May.

The manufacturing sector, including motor vehicles, ships and industrial machinery, accounts for around 60pc of Japan's ordinary steel output, while the construction sector accounts for the rest.

General contractor Nishimatsu Construction also plans to halt all ongoing construction and development projects in-principle until 6 May. This move also comes in response to the country's declaration of a national emergency in major consumer and industrial areas.

Japan on 8 April began a month-long state of emergency in Tokyo and six other prefectures to stop the spreading coronavirus. But the number of confirmed cases in the country has since doubled to more than 7,000, with additional prefectures such as Aichi, Kyoto and Hokkaido implementing their own sets of measures.

The Japanese government has unveiled a ¥108 trillion ($1 trillion) stimulus package to aid emergency restrictions and to also boost Japan's post-coronavirus economy. The proposed package includes more than ¥240bn to subsidise the manufacturing sector to develop more resilient supply chains. Meti is expected to allocate ¥220bn to Japanese manufacturers to relocate their production facilities back to Japan and ¥24bn to diversify their production bases to multiple countries.

By Rieko Suda

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07/11/24

US W mining essential after Trump victory: ITIA

London, 7 November (Argus) — The rise of protectionism and prospects of increasing tariffs between the US and China prompted discussions about the need to mine tungsten domestically in the US during the International Tungsten Industry Association (ITIA) conference in Barcelona this week. "The development of domestic tungsten production in North America is critical," a US tungsten consumer told Argus . The hard metal is gaining attention from the Department of Defence (DoD) owing to its applications within defence industries and potential future use in nuclear fusion. The lack of domestic tungsten is considered a significant risk to US national security. The US introduced a 25pc tariff on imported Chinese tungsten-related products effective from 1 August 2024. Furthermore, imports of tungsten-mined ore from China and Russia for DoD procurement will be banned from 2027. The DoD is providing an increasing number of grants for companies to establish domestic manufacturing. It is doing so through programmes such as the Defence Production Act Investments (DPAI), which, since the beginning of the fiscal year 2024, issued 55 awards totalling $555mn. "Many parties want us to move this project forward as quickly as we can," said Oliver Friesen, executive director of junior miner Guardian Metal, which is developing the largest tungsten deposit in the US, Nevada. "If we were to start production today, the tungsten concentrate from (our project) Pilot Mountain would represent the only primary domestic production in the US," Friesen said. Guardian Metal anticipates it can source 20pc of US tungsten consumption within three years. This funding initiative for domestic manufacturing has bipartisan support from both Republicans and Democrats, but it could accelerate with Donald Trump in the White House. The president-elect proposed tariffs of up to 20pc on all foreign goods and 60pc tariffs on all imports from China on the campaign trail. China accounts for more than 80pc of global tungsten production. One conference attendee told Argus he anticipates the tariffs to be a reality and not mere rhetoric. Any measures could provoke a retaliatory response from China, which has already imposed export controls on dual-use materials such as antimony, gallium and germanium. Despite this, some traders express scepticism about the need for the US to produce its tungsten, as consumers are sourcing material from "friendly jurisdictions" and political allies such as Portugal and Spain, and have plans to buy from South Korea. Additionally, the demand for virgin material may decrease, given the increasing viability of recycling, suggesting that less material may be necessary. However, amid regional shifts, one participant emphasised, "If the US becomes isolated, the material needs to be produced domestically." By Cristina Belda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU minor metal markets await US reaction to Trump win

07/11/24

EU minor metal markets await US reaction to Trump win

London, 7 November (Argus) — Europe's minor metal markets have been slow to react to Donald Trump's re-election as US president, and any price movement in response is pending a reaction from US consumers and further details of Trump's tariff plans. The biggest point of interest for European market participants is the potential impact of Trump's tariff plans and whether they would apply to critical minerals. Trump in the past has said his administration would apply tariffs upwards of 60pc on all US imports from China and a 20pc tariff on imports from the rest of the world to protect American manufacturing. But this also runs the risk of driving up inflation. Minor metals trading firms are hopeful that exceptions will be made for critical minerals and that Trump's plans could be watered down and take some time to implement. "Knowing Trump, there will be a lot of negotiating and country blackmailing before the final list is established. I would also expect a lot of exceptions for critical metals that are needed for aerospace, military, space and other high-tech industries," a minor metals trading company told Argus this week. "He certainly announced increased tariffs for several products of Chinese origin, but it could take months for any plan to actually be implemented," another market participant said, noting that they would take a more watchful approach rather than follow any knee-jerk reactions from the market. In addition to higher prices for metals imported from China, the other major risk factor associated with a more intensified US protectionist policy is that China will ramp up retaliatory measures in the form of export restrictions on metals for which it holds a dominant supply position. China has instituted export controls on gallium, germanium and antimony since the middle of last year, contributing to a dramatic surge in import prices for the latter two metals in the rest of the world. Supply of tungsten, a critical metal for the mining and aerospace industry, is also dominated by China, and it is widely viewed as the next most likely candidate for export controls. If geopolitical tensions escalate, tungsten supply chains may attempt to relocate to countries that have better relationships with the US. "Countries such as Thailand and South Korea are going to get real busy," a US tungsten recycling company told Argus . Meanwhile, the new US administration could benefit sectors that consume tungsten carbide, including energy and mining. "We will probably see more stability in mining projects in the US and a fast-tracking of permits for strategic metals," a supplier said. Faster permits could also boost the domestic production of antimony in North America, even though most products are still in the early stages of development. Despite hopes that the new US administration could make some tariff exceptions for critical minerals, many such minerals are already subject to import tariffs in the US. On 27 September, president Joe Biden's administration implemented 25pc tariffs on some chromium, cobalt, indium, tantalum and tungsten products imported to the US from China, despite strong opposition from stakeholders across the markets. All five of these metals were included in the US Secretary of the Interior's 2022 critical minerals list. Furthermore, Trump previous administration imposed tariffs on 5,745 items in 2018, including but not limited to, battery metals such as nickel, cobalt, lithium and manganese, as well as key electronics and aerospace metals such as gallium, germanium, bismuth and certain tungsten products. Trump did make exceptions for antimony and rare earths at the time, which he removed from its initial tariff list of more than 6,000 items. Many of these tariffs started out at 10pc in September 2018 but rose to 25pc by May 2019, with mixed impacts. The most recent wave of tariffs from the Biden administration prompted an uptick in demand from US consumers and trading companies between the announcement of the tariffs and their implementation. In the first half of this year, Chinese exports of chromium to the US surged to 6,221t, up by 417pc from the same period a year earlier, as exporters rushed to get material on the water before the tariffs came into force and US chromium buyers sought to build stocks. Likewise, US demand drove up exports of Chinese unwrought tantalum to 162t in January-August, more than doubling from 63t a year earlier, customs data show. The US is highly dependent on unwrought tantalum metal imported from China, with China's supplies accounting for more than half of its total imports in recent years. But in the days immediately following Trump's win, US demand has remained steady. "I expect that only the people who are the most risk-prone or certain about the duties will want to stockpile this early," a trading firm said. By Sian Morris and Cristina Belda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump victory raises climate law questions

06/11/24

Trump victory raises climate law questions

Houston, 6 November (Argus) — Federal tax incentives enacted through US President Joe Biden's signature 2022 climate law could survive in some fashion during a second Donald Trump administration, but their ultimate fate could depend on a Republican majority in Congress. While details of president-elect Trump's plans will unfold in the coming months, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which established tax incentives for clean electricity and the related supply chain, is very much up for review, according to panelists during a post-election webinar hosted by US law firm Bracewell. Beyond the presumed policy shift, the Biden administration is still working to finalize guidance for some of the IRA's incentives, such as production and investment tax credits for clean energy, and regulators have yet to outline other provisions in the law beyond cursory notices. The confluence of those factors could chill renewable energy development, at least in the near term. "Investors stand the risk of being whipsawed to some degree in terms of not having the comfort they need to make a billion-dollar investments on new clean energy facilities," Bracewell tax policy lead Tim Urban said. In addition, an expected 2025 tax bill could move around several trillions of dollars, "and some of that bill could either end up being IRA fixes or IRA repeals or curtailments," he said. Much will depend on whether Republicans retain a majority in the House of Representatives, which would give them control of Congress after they regained a Senate majority on Tuesday. That would open the door for budget reconciliation — the same process through which Democrats passed the IRA in 2022 — and allow Republicans to make changes to the law with a simple majority vote rather than the 60 typically required to bypass the Senate's filibuster rules. In other words, Republicans would not have to reach across the aisle to compromise with Democrats. While some Republicans have objected to outright ending the IRA, they have not yet faced the "horse trading" and intraparty pressure that accompanies negotiations around major legislation, according to Urban. "I'm still optimistic that that much, if not all the IRA may be salvageable, but I think there's a lot of work to be done," he said. Project developers have signaled a similar outlook , noting that renewable energy expanded during the first Trump administration, despite investment in newer sectors like offshore wind flagging ahead of the 2024 election. Even for offshore wind, they expect a slower pace of development rather than a complete abandonment of the industry by the US. The biggest change could come from competing priorities, with Trump's policies potentially making the all-in cost of resources like natural gas more attractive than renewables. Even without details, Trump's desire to see oil and gas producers " drill, baby, drill ", and his first term in the Oval Office offer some broad insight into how his policies could manifest. "One hallmark of the first Trump administration was to not pick winners and losers on technologies or type of energy," said United States Energy Association chief executive Mark Menezes, who served as US deputy secretary of energy in 2020-21. That meant making sure nuclear could be treated equally with other sources and "renewables weren't forced on a particular group if they didn't want to have renewable power, for example," he said. The incoming administration is likely to pursue a "rather aggressive approach to fossil fuel expansion", with a raft of "immediate" executive orders to support that goal, according to Scott Segal, co-chair of Bracewell's policy resolution group. But the IRA will likely be handled with a "scalpel" rather than a "sledgehammer", he said. By Patrick Zemanek Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mozambique’s Maputo port halts receipt of coal cargoes

06/11/24

Mozambique’s Maputo port halts receipt of coal cargoes

London, 6 November (Argus) — Mozambique's Maputo port has stopped accepting cargoes after the main entry point for trucking South African coal to the port was temporarily shut today because of rioting in the area. Authorities issued advisories to close the Lebombo port of entry, the main trucking route that links South Africa to Maputo, after media reports surfaced of trucks being torched in Mozambique. "[Maputo Port Development Co], in co-ordination with customs and other relevant Mozambican border authorities, has taken the decision to stop reception of cargo at the Port of Maputo," the operator told customers on Wednesday. Unrest in the country began after national elections on 9 October when the ruling party declared victory with a disputed 71pc of votes and extended its 49-year rule. Opposition to the election results in Mozambique has led to country-wide protests, now escalating to violence and rioting. Mozambique Ports and Railways Authority (CFM) issued a communique on 6 November informing customers about suspension of rail operations to ensure safety of staff and operators. On Monday, truck drivers were instructed to park on the side of the road and leave their vehicles. Customs officials also did not allow truckers to leave Mozambique for South Africa with any processed goods. Sources told Argus that traders were desperately looking for truckers to move coal bound for Maputo to Richards Bay instead "to make up for lost volumes". Trucking rates in South Africa are shooting up as a result. This will "lead to consolidation at non-RBCT ports or higher sales prices", a South Africa based trader said. "[The] implied demurrage has gone up at Richards Bay's Multipurpose and Dry Bulk terminals because of port queues," he added. Maputo serves as an increasingly important export port for South African coal producers who have taken to trucking or railing coal across the border owing to the transit problems South Africa's state-owned rail operator Transnet Freight Rail is experiencing. About 2.7mn t of South African thermal coal was exported from Maputo between January to October this year, according to Kpler data. The coal export figure stood at 5.48mn t for 2023. The dry bulk terminals at Maputo are privately owned by infrastructure operator Grindrod. It has 7.5mn t of export capacity for managing coal and magnetite. By Ashima Sharma Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU expected to approve climate, energy commissioners

06/11/24

EU expected to approve climate, energy commissioners

Brussels, 6 November (Argus) — Former Danish climate minister Dan Jorgensen is expected to be confirmed late this month as EU energy and housing commissioner, having received clear support after his hearing in front of EU parliament members. Similarly, centre-right political support is expected to ensure a vote for reconfirmation of Wopke Hoekstra as climate commissioner. Jorgensen has received approval from the joint hearing committee, after his hearing yesterday. During the hearing, he promised a plan for affordable energy, a roadmap to end Russian energy imports, a clean energy investment plan and an electrification action plan. He focused on cost, noting the need to work towards lower energy prices in Europe and recognised nuclear energy as "part of the solution". But Jorgensen avoided giving detail on contentious issues, adding no precise date for an end to Russian energy imports. Although he backed a 2040 renewables target, he gave no approximate percentage share, or range, for renewables in final energy consumption by that date. German member Christian Ehler said his centre-right EPP group would "in the end" support Jorgensen following "reasonable" performance. Ehler wants the future commissioner's statements on hydrogen and related delegated acts, especially on low-carbon hydrogen, to be "concretised quickly". Industry group SolarPower Europe welcomed Jorgensen's clarity around not seeking fundamental changes to electricity market rules, but their proper implementation. A power industry source, though, pointed to his "other ideas" on specifics, notably on how to increase market liquidity . Documents prepared for the 7 November hearing of current climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra give little concrete detail on revision of the bloc's emissions trading system (ETS). Hoekstra is expected to take a similarly cautious approach as that of designated EU agriculture commissioner Christophe Hansen on ETS integration to cut agriculture's 11pc share of EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. But Hoekstra is expected to be more open about using the 2026 ETS review to lower thresholds for EU ETS inclusion from 2031, including for maritime shipping, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (Beccs) and direct air capture with carbon storage (Daccs). The European Parliament is expected to vote on the new commissioners during its 25-28 November plenary in Strasbourg. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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