China issues second batch of oil product export quotas

Spanish Market: Oil products
06/05/20

China has issued its second batch of oil product export quotas for this year, again restricting exports to state-controlled firms.

The government has granted 28.03mn t of export quotas in the latest batch, 39,000t more than in the first batch that was issued at the end of last year but down by 470,000t compared with the second batch in 2019. A breakdown by gasoline, diesel and jet fuel has not been announced.

The government has now awarded 49.18mn t of quotas in the two batches this year, up by 3.89mn t or 8.6pc from the first two awards last year. China issued a total of 55.89mn t of quotas in 2019.

The quotas cover both general trade and exports under third-party processing deals. The general trade quotas total 24.63mn t, up by a slight 79,000t on the first batch and 840,000t higher than a year earlier. The quotas have been awarded to five state-controlled companies - Sinopec with 10.47mn t, PetroChina with 8.53mn t, SinoChem with 2.72mn t, CNOOC with 2.82mn t and aviation fuel distributor CNAF with 90,000t. Sinopec is the only company to have received a lower quota compared to the first batch, down by 490,000t.

Quotas granted for third-party processing deals total 3.4mn t, lower by 40,000t compared with the first batch and down by 1.31mn t year on year. The quotas are shared between Sinopec and PetroChina, with 2.6mn t and 800,000t respectively. CNOOC and SinoChem were awarded 100,000t and 140,000t in this year's first batch but were not included in the latest list.

Private-sector firms remain shut out of the clean product export market, even after Rongsheng's ZPC received a 1mn t bunker fuel export quota last month under a pilot project for the Zhoushan free trade zone. This award raised expectations that Rongsheng would be awarded more product export rights.

The product export quotas will help relieve oversupply in the Chinese domestic market, even as the export sector has been hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak. Persistently negative export margins are also limiting flows out of China, with Singapore spot gasoline prices having stayed below prices in Guangdong since early March. And exports are likely to remain under pressure in the second quarter, as global fuel demand is likely to remain subdued in the coming months as the Covid-19 pandemic continues.

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21/04/25

IMO incentive to shape bio-bunker choices: Correction

Corrects B30 pricing in paragraph 5. New York, 21 April (Argus) — An International Maritime Organization (IMO) proposal for ship owners who exceed emissions reduction targets to earn surplus credits will play a key role in biofuel bunkering options going forward. The price of these credits will help determine whether B30 or B100 becomes the preferred bio-bunker fuel for vessels not powered by LNG or methanol. It will also influence whether biofuel adoption is accelerated or delayed beyond 2032. At the conclusion of its meeting earlier this month the IMO proposed a dual-incentive mechanism to curb marine GHG emissions starting in 2028. The system combines penalties for non-compliance with financial incentives for over-compliance, aiming to shift ship owner behavior through both "stick" and "carrot" measures. As the "carrot", ship owners whose emissions fall below the IMO's stricter compliance target will receive surplus credits, which can be traded on the open market. The "stick" will introduce a two-tier penalty system. If emissions fall between the base and direct GHG emissions tiers, vessel operators will pay a fixed penalty of $100/t CO2-equivalent. Ship owners whose emissions exceed the looser, tier 2, base target will incur a penalty of $380/t CO2e. Both tiers tighten annually through 2035. The overcompliance credits will be traded on the open market. It is unlikely that they will exceed the cost of the tier 2 penalty of $380/t CO2e. Argus modeled two surplus credit price scenarios — $70/t and $250/t CO2e — to assess their impact on bunker fuel economics. Assessments from 10-17 April showed Singapore very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) at $481/t, Singapore B30 at $740/t, and Chinese used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome), or B100, at $1,143/t (see charts). If the outright prices remain flat, in both scenarios, VLSFO would incur tier 1 and tier 2 penalties, raising its effective cost to around $563/t in 2028. B30 in both scenarios would receive credits putting its price at $653/t and $715/t respectively. In the high surplus credit scenario, B100 would earn roughly $580/t in credits, bringing its net cost to about $563/t, on par with VLSFO, and more competitive than B30. In the low surplus credit scenario, B100 would earn just $162/t in credits, lowering its cost to approximately $980/t, well above VLSFO. At these spot prices, and $250/t CO2e surplus credit, B100 would remain the cheapest fuel option through 2035. At $70/t CO2e surplus credit, B30 becomes cost-competitive with VLSFO only after 2032. Ultimately, the market value of IMO over-compliance credits will be a major factor in determining the timing and extent of global biofuel adoption in the marine sector. By Stefka Wechsler Scenario 1, $70/t surplus credit $/t Scenario 2, $250/t surplus credit $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Calif. refinery resupply rule vote postponed

21/04/25

Calif. refinery resupply rule vote postponed

Houston, 21 April (Argus) — California regulators delayed a vote this week on new refinery resupply rules meant to mitigate retail gasoline price spikes, but refiners are still wary that the state is moving to make the most regulated market in the US even tougher. The California Energy Commission (CEC) had scheduled a vote on refinery resupply rules at its 24 April business meeting but said the meeting is now postponed to allow for additional feedback and consultation with stakeholders. The draft rules under consideration would require refiners to submit resupply plans to the state at least 120 days before any planned maintenance in September and October that would cause California specification gasoline production to decline by 20,000 b/d for at least 21 days or a total of more than 450,000 bl. Large spikes in California prices occurred in the fall of 2022 and 2023. The commission is also planning rulemaking this year on minimum inventory requirements to avoid price spikes in the event of unplanned events, as well as possible rules on setting a refiner margin cap. The timing of the new regulations is precarious, as two major refineries in the state are planning to shut operations within a year. Independent refiner Valero said on 16 April it is planning to shut or re-purpose its 145,000 b/d refinery in Benicia, California and continues to evaluate strategic alternatives for its other refinery in the state – the 85,000 b/d Wilmington facility. In addition, Phillips 66 is planning to shut its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery later this year. Effort to stop gasoline price spikes The California rules stem from two pieces of legislation signed by California governor Gavin Newsom known as AB X2-1 and SB X1-2, part of a multi-year effort to mitigate price volatility in the state, after some of the highest gasoline prices ever recorded in the fall of 2022. US refiners have long opposed the new regulations seeing them as a political attack on the industry, conflicting with other laws and the latest example of an increasingly difficult regulatory environment in the state. The CEC has conducted workshops to help draft the rules with the participation of labor groups, the refining industry, environmental justice groups, community advocates, and the public. The industry was largely represented by the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA). WSPA told the commission that the resupply rule could conflict with existing statutory requirements for refiners not to withhold fuel from the market and could result in market distortions and undesirable price impacts. The rules could also make it hard for Arizona and Nevada to secure needed supplies in the face of regulations expressly favoring Californians' access to fuel, WSPA said. The rules could also force refiners to use "uneconomic strategies" to secure non-spot market resupplies and additional capital to guarantee inventories that could potentially lead to higher gasoline prices, the group said. AB X2-1 forbids the CEC from adopting any regulation "unless it finds that the likely benefits to consumers from avoiding price volatility outweigh the potential costs to consumers." WSPA said it is concerned that the CEC does not "have the facts in front of it to legitimately support such a finding" with respect to imposing the resupply requirement. Under the draft resupply rules, refiners must show they can secure sufficient supply to ensure that lost gasoline production anticipated during the maintenance does not adversely affect the California transportation fuels market. The plan must show a resupply volume of at least 85pc of the anticipated lost gasoline production during the maintenance and the resupply volumes must match the seasonal specification of the lost production. The resupply plans could include imports and each barrel of resupply obtained by imports will count as 1.3 barrels of resupply. In addition, a plan that includes resupply through the purchase or storage of gasoline blendstocks or gasoline blending components must explain how such materials will result in an equivalent amount of California specification gasoline. Non-compliance could carry a civil penalty of $100,000-$1mn per day. Refineries with capacity under 30,000 b/d are exempt from the resupply regulation. The rules would apply to five major refiners operating in the state — Chevron, PBF Energy, Phillips 66, Valero and Marathon. Phillips 66, however, will be closing its Los Angeles refinery by October and converted a refinery in Rodeo, California, to renewable fuels in 2024. Since the 1980s, 29 refineries in California have been shut or integrated with other refineries that eventually closed or converted to renewable fuels production, according to CEC data. About half of the shut refineries were smaller operations, producing less than 20,000 b/d. Looking at options The CEC caused a stir in August 2024 when it released its Transportation Fuels Assessment, which examined policy options to mitigate price spikes and transition away from fossil fuels including the state of California buying and owning refineries. The assessment said this could range from one refinery to all refineries in the state. But the document also highlighted problems with such a plan, including the high cost of buying refineries, significant legal issues, and the fact that the state has no experience managing complex industrial processes. California is not currently pursuing this option, state officials said. Another idea in the Transportation Fuels Assessment involved state-owned product reserves in the north and south of California to allow rapid deployment of fuel when needed. This could include "up to several hundred thousand barrels." The CEC and the California Air Resources Board are drafting a formal Transportation Fuels Transition Plan which will serve as a road map to move away from fossil fuels. A draft of the report will be released later this year. The Transportation Fuels Assessment and the Transportation Fuels Transition Plan were mandated under SB X1-2. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IMF anticipates lower growth from US tariffs

17/04/25

IMF anticipates lower growth from US tariffs

Washington, 17 April (Argus) — Economic growth projections set for release next week will include "notable markdowns" caused by higher US tariffs that have been disrupting trade and stressing financial markets, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said today. The IMF earlier this month warned that the tariffs that President Donald Trump was placing on trading partners could pose a "significant risk" to the global economy. Those higher trade barriers are on track to reduce growth, raise prices for consumers and create incremental costs related to uncertainty, the IMF plans to say in its World Economic Outlook on 22 April. "Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession," Georgieva said Thursday in a speech previewing the outlook. "We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries." Trump has already placed an across-the-board 10pc tariff on most trading partners, with higher tariffs on some goods from Canada and Mexico, a 145pc tariff on China, and an exception for most energy imports. Those tariffs — combined with Trump's on-again, off-again threats to impose far higher tariffs — have been fueling uncertainty for businesses and trading partners. The recent tariff "increases, pauses, escalations and exemption" will likely have significant consequences for the global economy, Georgieva said, resulting in a postponement of investment decisions, ships at sea not knowing where to sail, precautionary savings and more volatile financial markets. Higher tariffs will cause an upfront hit to economic growth, she said, and could cause a shift in trade under which some sectors could be "flooded by cheap imports" while other sectors face shortages. The IMF has yet to release its latest growth projections. But in January, IMF expected global growth would hold steady at 3.3pc this year with lower inflation. The IMF at the time had forecast the US economy would grow by 2.7pc, with 1pc growth in Europe and 4.5pc growth in China. The upcoming markdown in growth projections from the IMF aligns with analyses from many banks and economists. US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on 16 April said the recent increase in tariffs were likely to contribute to "higher inflation and slower growth". Those comments appear to have infuriated Trump, who has wanted Powell to cut interest rates in hopes of stimulating growth in the US. "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough!" Trump wrote today on social media. Powell's term as chair does not end until May 2026. Under a longstanding US Supreme Court case called Humphrey's Executor , Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally fire commissioners at independent agencies such as the Federal Reserve. Trump has already done so at other agencies such as the US Federal Trade Commission, creating a potential avenue to overturn the decision. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nabisy sperrt Biokraftstoffproduzenten

17/04/25

Nabisy sperrt Biokraftstoffproduzenten

Hamburg, 17 April (Argus) — Die Bundesanstalt für Landwirtschaft und Ernährung hat am 15. April den Zugang eines Biokraftstoffherstellers zum deutschen Biomasseregister Nabisy gesperrt. Dies führte zu einem Anstieg der Ticketpreise in Deutschland und den Niederlanden sowie der HVO-Preise in der ARA. "Dem Nabisy-Nutzer mit der ID: EU-BM-13-SSt-10022652 wurde der Zugang zur staatlichen Datenbank Nabisy [Nachhaltige - Biomasse - Systeme] gesperrt", teilte die Datenbank in einer E-Mail vom 15. April mit. Weiter hieß es, die Bundesanstalt für Landwirtschaft und Ernährung (BLE) prüfe die von diesem Nutzer in der Nabisy-Datenbank ausgestellten Nachhaltigkeitsnachweise und die daraus resultierenden Teilnachweise. Die BLE teilte Argus mit, dass sie aufgrund von Datenschutzbestimmungen keine weiteren Informationen zu der suspendierten Produktionsanlage bereitstellen kann. Die BLE prüfe derzeit die eingegangenen Beweise. Alle vom suspendierten Produzenten ausgestellten Nachweise bleiben für die Dauer der Untersuchung ungültig. Das bedeutet, dass verpflichtete Parteien keine deutschen Zertifikate zur Reduzierung von Treibhausgasemissionen von ihm einfordern können. Elmar Baumann, Geschäftsführer des Verbands der Deutschen Biokraftstoffindustrie erklärte, dass der Verband das Vorgehen des BLE für das Durchführen einer gründlichen Prüfung zur Klärung des Verdachts als zwingend erforderlich einschätzt. Weiter geht der Verband davon aus, dass "der Behörde klare Anhaltspunkte für gravierende Verstöße vorliegen" müssen. Das Ausmaß der von der Untersuchung betroffenen Biokraftstoffmengen ist unklar. Marktteilnehmer berichteten Argus jedoch, dass der Nabisy-Code des Produzenten auf Nachweisen für HVO aus Abfällen und fortschrittlichen Rohstoffen gefunden wurde. Die Nachricht führte zunächst zu höheren Preisen für deutsche THG-Zertifikate sowie für niederländische Zertifikate für erneuerbare Kraftstoffe (HBE). Verpflichtete Unternehmen befürchteten Lücken in der Erfüllung der Treibhausgasminderungsquote, sollten sie die Nachweise des suspendierten Produzenten verlieren. Die deutschen doppelt anrechenbaren THG-Zertifikate für das Jahr 2025 stiegen am 16. April um 10 €/t CO2eq auf rund 270 €/t CO2eq und blieben zum Ende der Woche weitgehend stabil. Auch die europäischen HVO-Preise stiegen, wenn auch in begrenztem Umfang. Der Fob-ARA-Aufschlag für HVO auf Palmölmühlenabwasser (POME)-Basis stieg um rund 25 $/m³, die Spotpreise für HVO auf Basis von Altspeiseöl (UCO) stiegen im Vergleich zum Ende der letzten Woche um rund 40 $/m³. Im deutschen HVO-Markt lässt sich bisher keine Reaktion erkennen. Von Svea Winter Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts

17/04/25

Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts

Mexico City, 17 April (Argus) — The Mexican finance executive association (IMEF) lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for a second consecutive month in its April survey, citing a rising risk of recession on US-Mexico trade tensions. In its April survey, growth expectations for 2025 fell to 0.2pc, down from 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. Nine of the 43 respondents projected negative growth — up from four in March, citing rising exposure to US tariffs that now affect "roughly half" of Mexico's exports. The group warned that the risk of recession will continue to rise until tariff negotiations are resolved, with the possibility of a US recession compounding the problem. As such, IMEF expects a contraction in the first quarter with high odds of continued negative growth in the second quarter — meeting one common definition of recession as two straight quarters of contraction. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Mexico's statistics agency Inegi will release its first estimate for first quarter GDP growth on April 30. "A recession is now very likely," said IMEF's director of economic studies Victor Herrera. "Some sectors, like construction, are already struggling — and it's just a matter of time before it spreads." The severity of the downturn will depend on how quickly trade tensions ease and whether the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement is successfully revised, Herrera added. But the outlook remains uncertain, with mixed signals this week — including a possible pause on auto tariffs and fresh warnings of new tariffs on key food exports like tomatoes. IMEF also trimmed its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.5pc from 1.6pc, citing persistent tariff uncertainty. Its 2025 formal job creation estimate dropped to 220,000 from 280,000 in March. The group slightly lowered its 2025 inflation forecast to 3.8pc from 3.9pc, noting current consumer price index should allow the central bank to continue the current rate cut cycle to lower its target interest rate to 8pc by year-end from 9pc. IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.90/$1, slightly stronger than the Ps21/$1 forecast in March. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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