China’s Zhejiang Petrochemical starts new PDH unit

Spanish Market: LPG, Petrochemicals
15/07/20

Major private-sector Chinese refiner and petrochemical firm Zhejiang Petrochemical (ZPC) produced propylene from its new propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant today.

The plant, at Zhoushan in east China's Zhejiang province, was fed in propane around 10-11 July. It is now running at around 60pc.

The new propylene yield still has high water content. ZPC expects to reach on-specification output in a couple of days after fine-tuning the production process.

ZPC's new PDH unit has nameplate capacity of 600,000 t/yr of propylene, requiring 720,000 t/yr of propane supplies. Its propane feedstock mainly comes from ZPC's integrated 400,000 b/d refinery at Zhoushan.

ZPC has also built two new derivative units with the PDH plant. A 260,000 t/yr acrylonitrile unit started up two weeks ago and is now running at 70pc. A 400,000/250,000 t/yr phenol/acetone unit will be put into operation soon. The balance of 20,000 t/month of propylene will be for merchant sales.

The new PDH unit takes ZPC's propylene capacity to 1.63mn t/yr, making it the largest private-sector propylene producer in China. This includes 700,000 t/yr of propylene from its naphtha cracker and 330,000 t/yr from a fluid catalytic cracker (FCC). Both units started operations in December 2019.

By Becky Zhang

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18/12/24

Viewpoint: rHDPE packaging grade demand solid into 2025

London, 18 December (Argus) — A number of European recyclers report stronger demand for premium rHDPE BM grades heading into 2025, but prices and margins are likely to remain under pressure. European recyclers have endured well-publicised struggles in the past two years, but demand for rHDPE BM natural and, particularly, white grades has been the brightest spot for those operating in the polyolefin market in 2024. Prices have risen by 7-8pc over the year and — while some recyclers are keen to emphasise that contracting out their 2025 volumes has not been without its difficulties — many report that they have more orders for the coming year than they are able to supply. The closure of UK-based recycler Viridor's Avonmouth recycling plant , an rHDPE natural supplier, pushed some orders to other suppliers at the end of the year. But underlying demand also appears to be rising, and large packaging companies told Argus that they expect — based on forecasts from their customers, and with the caveat that these do not always translate into physical volumes — to be using more rHDPE in 2025 than in 2024. This shows brands are keen to further increase the recycled content of their packaging, and that many see rHDPE as a good category to focus on. But challenges remain, even for recyclers that are seeing a stronger demand outlook. Packaging manufacturers and brand owners have no legal obligation to use rHDPE in 2025, and there will be a limit to what they will pay for sustainable packaging materials. Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands' sales were hit by inflation in 2022 and 2023, and they remain cognisant of the need to find the right price point with their customers as volumes recover. As a result, decreases in the virgin HDPE market and the consequent widening of the rHDPE BM-virgin HDPE BM premium to its highest since August 2023 may become an obstacle to demand. Barring a sharp rise in crude and naphtha costs that underpin the European petrochemicals chain, Argus does not expects any major increases in HDPE prices in 2025. The potential for virgin prices to cap recyclate prices will remain for the foreseeable future. Some European recyclers are also concerned about import pressure, which is resurfacing after a lull linked to two periods of unusually-higher Asia-Europe freight rates in 2024. Asian rHDPE natural pellets have been offered up to €400-500/t ($419-$524/t) cheaper than the highest-priced European supply in recent weeks. And, although some buyers prefer the optics of supporting their regional recycling industry, or the opportunity to resolve quality issues more easily and avoid traceability concerns by working with local suppliers, this price advantage may encourage more to find import sources they are comfortable with. Recyclers also still need to find an outlet for their lower-value grades, from darker/coloured packaging grades down to grades that mainly sell into "cost-saving" markets such as pipe. A typical colour-sorting recycling process produces a range of grades, reflecting the combined natural, white and mixed-colour composition of standard HDPE packaging bales in northwest Europe. But finding a home for darker pellets can be difficult in the packaging industry, where buyers like to process white or natural grades with masterbatch colourants — concentrated pigments — to preserve the appearance of their products. And construction and industrial markets are depressed by the current economic environment and unlikely to buy large volumes unless recyclers can offer a discount to virgin material. Recyclers making premium HDPE grades may therefore feel more confident than those in other polyolefin markets heading into 2025. But until buyers are more accepting of a wide range of grades, or recently-confirmed legislation mandating the use of recyclates in polyolefin packaging kicks in, they will be under no illusion that the past few years' challenges can be consigned to the rear view mirror just yet. By Will Collins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: EU PVC margins to hold below average in 2025

18/12/24

Viewpoint: EU PVC margins to hold below average in 2025

London, 18 December (Argus) — European polyvinyl chloride (PVC) margins are likely to remain subdued in 2025, with a repeat of the sluggish demand and rising ethylene costs seen in 2024. Weakening European PVC consumption throughout 2024 was mainly underpinned by lower construction activity, a key demand driver. Construction purchasing managers index (PMI) data, compiled by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), show the eurozone construction PMI for 2024 peaked in October at 43.0, still way below the 50 mark that separates contraction and expansion. PVC market participants are cautiously optimistic that recent declines in interest rates from the European Central Bank (ECB) may help stimulate demand for home-builds in 2025, and improved PVC demand will follow. The ECB reduced rates three times in 2024, to 3.25pc. Rates may continue to ease in the short term, but as witnessed in 2024 this would take time to filter through to European PVC demand. Because of this, buyers are contemplating either maintaining or reducing contractual PVC volume commitments for 2025, noting struggles with passing raw material costs to customers. Anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on s-PVC imports from the US and Egypt helped to reduce excess supply in 2024, and while this is likely to continue into 2025 there is limited interest from buyers to source additional supply because of lower demand. Asian s-PVC imports remained minimal, with volatility in freight costs and longer lead times likely to suppress buying interest into 2025. Re-balancing act Domestic PVC producers focused on reducing inventories and operating rates for much of 2024 to keep the market balanced, with average operating rates between 60-70pc for s-PVC production and at the higher end of the range for specialty grades. But re-balancing proved to be a slow process in light of weakening demand, forcing European producers to keep operating rates and margins low for much of the year. Argus calculated s-PVC net production margins, based on feedstock ethylene costs in northwest Europe, averaged around €287.04/t between January-November 2024, lower by €109.04/t than during the same period in 2023 and around €73.40/t lower than the Argus 2015-23 average. Easing electricity costs in 2024 helped to suppress further PVC margin loss, but demand weakness throughout the year remained in favour of buyers as contract prices settled predominantly below the implied ethylene cost. With European ethylene prices likely to increase and PVC demand expectations suppressed throughout 2025, there could be another year of below-average margins for PVC producers. Argus assessed the December suspension PVC (s-PVC) preliminary contract marker for northwest Europe at €1,120/t on 20 December, reflective of a preliminary contract delta for December at minus €5/t. This is comparable to an ethylene monthly contract price (MCP) movement of minus €7.50/t for December. This raises the possibility of further supply consolidation in Europe to re-balance the market in the medium term, with smaller producers announcing potential closure of PVC production units in central and eastern Europe in 2025. Others plan to mothball some specialty PVC production lines, while others are seeking import licenses to supply PVC into emerging markets such as India. This is difficult to achieve because of cost-competitiveness. A rise in regional construction activity, and therefore PVC demand, will remain the quickest way to re-balance the market, helping to raise operating rates and margins back to above-average levels as buyers commit to more contractual volumes. By George Barsted and Michael Vitiello Integrated s-PVC NWE net margins €/t Eurozone construction PMI Index Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Japan eyes methanol as marine bridging fuel

18/12/24

Viewpoint: Japan eyes methanol as marine bridging fuel

Tokyo, 18 December (Argus) — Japanese demand for methanol as an alternative marine fuel is expected to increase, especially after 2027, but it is likely it will mainly be used as a transition fuel before the commercial launch of ammonia- and hydrogen-fuelled vessels. The Japanese shipping industry is expected to launch more methanol-fuelled vessels from 2027 ( see table ), to help reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the global maritime sector. Global regulatory body the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in 2023 pledged to achieve net zero emissions in international waters by or around 2050. To help achieve the IMO's target, a total of 26 methanol-powered vessels are expected to be commissioned worldwide by the end of this year, followed by 54 ships in 2025 and 96 carriers in 2026, according to a report released in November by Japanese classification society ClassNK. This would increase global methanol demand to 4.5mn t/yr by 2026, said the report. As of June, there are 33 methanol-fuelled vessels currently in use. Methanol-fuelled vessels can refuel at around 130 major ports all over the world, except in Japan, according to Japanese shipowner Mitsui OSK Lines (Mol). The city of Yokohama in the eastern prefecture of Kanagawa, in co-operation with Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (MGC) and Maersk, launched a study on methanol and green methanol bunkering in the port of Yokohama in December 2023. Since then, the group, in collaboration with new partners — Japanese refiner Idemitsu, MGC's shipping subsidiary Kokuka Sangyo, domestic shipping firm Uyeno Transtech and Yokohama Kawasaki international port — has conducted a ship-to-ship bunkering simulation at the port of Yokohama in September. Expectations of the increase in methanol use, especially cleaner e-methanol, have led Japanese firms to become more involved in upstream projects to secure the fuel. Japanese firms have invested in more than 10 e-methanol production projects both in and outside of Japan ( see table ), with the number of projects likely to increase, according to the ministry of economy, trade and industry. Japanese firms are developing new carriers, but at the same time are also trying to modify existing vessels — which currently use fuel oil, LNG, LPG and methanol — to be able to burn renewable fuels such as biofuels, e-methane and e-methanol. It would be easy to increase the number of methanol-fuelled ships, given their relatively low initial or modification costs compared with LNG-fed vessels, according to Mol. Methanol is also a stable liquid at room temperature and atmosphere pressure, making it easy to transport and store compared to other alternative fuels, Mol added. Fellow shipping company Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK line) is also mulling the development of smaller methanol-fuelled handymax ships that are unable to be equipped with large ammonia fuel tanks, to aid with decarbonisation. Methanol a temporary solution But Japanese firms see methanol mostly as a "bridging fuel" rather than a zero-emission fuel, as methanol can reduce GHG emissions only by 15pc compared to traditional bunker fuel, although it can curb sulphur oxide and nitrogen oxide emissions by up to 99pc and 80pc, respectively. It would be vital to begin introducing much cleaner marine fuels, such as ammonia and hydrogen, to meet the maritime sector's net-zero goal. Tokyo is trying to promote the development of ammonia and hydrogen-fuelled ships by providing financial support, while the utilisation of such clean vessels could materialise from around 2030, the ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism (Mlit) said. Japan's state-owned research institute Nedo plans to provide ¥35bn ($229mn) to support the development of engines, fuel tanks, fuel supply systems and other core technologies for zero-emission ships that use hydrogen and ammonia, as well as LNG and e-methane, under its ¥2.76 trillion green innovation fund. But the grants are much larger than those for the development of methanol-fuelled ships, which are currently available only from Mlit and the environment ministry, with the amount of ¥100mn per vessel over two to three years. The scheme has been open for application every year since 2023. But the ministries' scheme also targets LNG-fuelled ships, with a breakdown of allotment for methanol-powered vessels unclear. By Reina Maeda and Nanami Oki Japanese firms' methanol projects Methanol-fuelled ships Company # of vessel Type Target commercialisation Announcement Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, Mitsui OSK Line 1 Ocean-going methanol carrier Jul-05 May-23 Toyofuji Shipping, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 2 Ro-Ro vessel 2027-28 fiscal year Jun-24 Mitsui OSK Line 1 Coastal methanol carrier Dec-24 Jul-24 NS United Kaiun, Nihon Shipyard, Jaman Marine United, Imabari Shipbuilding Multiple Bulk carrier After 2027-28 fiscal year May-24 Orix, Tsuneishi Shipbuilding 2 Bulk carrier Jul-24 Production Company Product Country Target commercialisation Target capacity (t/yr) Mitsui E-methanol US Jan-24 1630000 Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Bio-methanol Japan Jun-24 Small amount Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, Kobelco E-methanol Japan NA NA Cosmo, Toyo Engineering E-methanol Japan NA NA Sumitomo Chemical E-methanol Japan 2030s NA Mitsui, Asahi Kasei Bio-methanol US Jun-23 NA Toyo Engineering E-methanol India 2030 NA Investment Company Product Country Target commercialisation Target capacity (t/yr) Mitsui E-methanol Denmark NA 42,000 Idemitsu E-methanol Brazil, US, Chile, Uruguay, Australia 2,030 4,000,000 JOGMEC E-methanol Brazil, US, Chile, Uruguay, Australia 2,030 4,000,000 Mitsu OSK Line E-methanol Brazil, US, Chile, Uruguay, Australia 2,030 4,000,000 Table source: Firm's company releases Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

WLGA calls for immediate action in African LPG roadmap

17/12/24

WLGA calls for immediate action in African LPG roadmap

The roadmap identifies 11 high-opportunity markets in sub-Saharan Africa where LPG consumption could significantly increase, writes Yasmin Zaman London, 17 December (Argus) — The growth of LPG as a clean cooking fuel in sub-Saharan Africa will remain limited without immediate and considerable advancement in regulation and investment, according to a new roadmap released by the World Liquid Gas Association (WLGA). The report, commissioned by the WLGA's recently formed Cooking For Life Africa Task Force (CFLA), calls for clear, enforceable regulatory frameworks, financing and payment plans to reduce cost barriers, and investment in infrastructure including roads to better support distribution. The roadmap identifies 11 high-opportunity markets in sub-Saharan Africa where under favourable conditions per capita LPG consumption could increase to 25kg/yr by 2030 and 40kg/yr by 2050. In seven markets, including Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana and Cameroon, policies are already in place that will drive growth opportunities, leaving four that need to address this challenge, according to the roadmap. Affordability is an issue in all countries except Ghana. In Nigeria, this is considered a "major roadblock" because of the depreciation of the naira. The roadmap was released after the UN's Cop 29 climate conference, where major European oil firms pledged $500mn to energy access in sub-Saharan Africa and south and southeast Asia. The WLGA established the CFLA at the IEA's summit on clean cooking in Africa earlier this year. Its founding members include TotalEnergies, Norway's Equinor, Nigerian state-owned oil firm NNPC, LPG trading firm Petredec and regional LPG distributor Oryx Energies. "The LPG roadmap, which targets about 60pc of the continent's population without access to clean cooking solutions, will simultaneously address economic, health and environmental challenges across Africa," NNPC's managing director Huub Stokman said. TotalEnergies' vice-president of LPG Biova Agbokou added that the CFLA and the roadmap can also act "as another lever to reach more end-users". Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: VLGC market faces uncertainties in 2025

16/12/24

Viewpoint: VLGC market faces uncertainties in 2025

London, 16 December (Argus) — Looming tariffs, Panama Canal's new dynamics, limited US export capacity and a continued cap on Mideast Gulf LPG production will bring uncertainty to the VLGC market next year and may keep rates well below 2023's record levels. VLGC freight rates were largely suppressed in 2024 compared with the previous year because of smoother transits at the Panama Canal as water levels rose. Full capacity at the canal resumed mid-year, and this weighed on freight rates because it resulted in global higher tanker availability as it reduced voyage length between the US and Asia-Pacific. Panama Canal transits in 2025 will continue to affect rates with the kick off of the long term slot allocation system, where 40pc of slots available have already been allocated. This will mean there could be fewer available slots in the usual Neopanamax daily auctions, and could make it more difficult for vessels without bookings needing immediate passage. Another crucial factor that pressured VLGCs in 2024 was the reduction of available US spot cargoes because of weather related delays and maintenance at US terminals halfway through the year. High demand for export cargoes matched with a surplus of ships drove premiums for US cargoes to record highs in September, effectively capturing a larger share of the arbitrage and weighing on freight rates. This has since dialled down once terminals caught up with their schedules, but higher premiums for US cargoes is likely to remain a factor weighing on freight until further export capacity comes online in mid-2025 — when Energy Transfer's Nederland export terminal will add 250,000 b/d of export capacity with a new LPG dock. In the east of Suez market, Opec+ has voted to maintain the recent production cuts rather than unwinding them as previously intended. This will continue to cap LPG output and cargo availability in the Pacific Basin market this year, and free up ships to compete in the US Gulf instead. Fewer Mideast Gulf cargoes could add pressure over freight rates in the first half of 2025, before more US Gulf shipments are made available mid-year. This will absorb ships on the long haul Houston to Chiba route and likely support freight rates in the second half of the year. This may be boosted on occasion by short term shortages of ships while a large portion of the fleet is expected to be temporarily out for mandatory maintenance this year, reducing tanker availability. Shipowners BW LPG and Dorian LPG said 80 ships are scheduled to drydock in 2025, double the number of this year. This will match 13 expected newbuild deliveries in the year, and the outcome could support rates. Trump's tariffs But global LPG flows could be significantly disrupted in the case of another trade war between the Washington and Beijing if US president-elected Donald Trump fulfils his campaign promise to impose a tariff on Chinese goods. Should Beijing introduce retaliatory tariffs on LPG, a two-tiered market for US exports to Asia-Pacific could emerge as seen in 2018, when Mideast Gulf cargoes were bought and sold by Japanese and South Korean importers and traders and then resold to China at $15-20/t premiums. Back then several US shipments ended up redirected to Europe as US traders reduced exports to China — although such actions remain speculative for now. A potential trade war remains a significant risk for the VLGC freight market along with further disruptions at the Panama Canal and the continued Opec+ cuts, which could keep 2025 freight rates to levels recorded in 2024. By Yohanna Pinheiro Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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