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Japanese coal imports sink as LNG competition steps up

  • Spanish Market: Coal
  • 16/09/20

Japanese thermal coal imports fell sharply in August and fared much worse than LNG receipts, as generation economics continued to tip gradually in favour of greater gas burn.

Japanese thermal coal receipts fell by 1.1mn t on the year or 12pc to 7.9mn t in August, according to provisional finance ministry data, pushing year-to-date imports further behind the curve of previous years.

January-August imports totalled 70mn t, the lowest eight-month intake in more than seven years and down from 73.4mn t at the same stage last year and the 2016-18 average of 74.1mn t.

August imports fell on the year even as power generation data suggest a recovery in fossil fuel-based output to almost the same level as last year. Only three of the 10 major utilities have published power data for August, but the available figures suggest that national generation from fossil fuels recovered to an average of 84.3GW last month, which would be only narrowly down from 85.6GW in August last year.

Fossil fuel-based generation fell by an average of 3.8GW on the year in January-July on slow demand during a mild winter and the impact of Covid-19 restrictions later on, but unseasonably hot conditions in August helped slow the downward trend. Daily mean temperatures in Tokyo were 1.5°C higher than the long-term average last month and 0.72°C higher than in August 2019.

But firmer power demand and comparatively firm fossil fuel-fired generation was not enough to counter a steep drop in Japanese demand for seaborne coal. Two factors probably weighing on demand last month are high utility stocks in the country and a greater preference for LNG, as gas prices continue to gain in competitiveness against coal for power.

Utility coal stocks rose to 9.9mn t as of the end of May — the latest data available — as a result of slower demand, which was up from 9.4mn t 12 months earlier and the highest since before April 2016.

But increasingly competitive LNG prices — or a forced increase in consumption in response to high stocks and an oversupply of contractual import volumes — may have been a bigger factor weighing on seaborne coal demand last month. Japanese LNG receipts were only 3pc lower on the year at 5.8mn t, compared with the 12pc decline in coal receipts.

Japan's average LNG import costs fell by 45pc on the year in August to a 15-year low of just $5.62/mn Btu, driven by the collapse in oil prices, to which a majority of term LNG volumes are linked, this spring. This was down from $7.30/mn Btu in July and over $10/mn Btu 12 months earlier.

Average import costs for coal were down by only 32pc on the year at $72/t, the customs data show.

At these costs, the implied tax-inclusive generation cost for a 60pc gas plant and a 38pc coal plant would be $33.88/MWh and $29.36/MWh, respectively, according to Argus analysis. The implied $4.52/MWh cost advantage for coal-fired generation last month was down from nearly $19/MWh in August 2019, reflecting a greatly diminished incentive for utilities to run coal ahead of gas for power generation.

Australian coal imports sink

Australian coal accounted for around a half of the overall decline in Japanese imports last month.

A maximum of 5.3mn t of Australian coal was received, according to the customs data, although some of this total may include Colombian, South African or other origins of coal that are not differentiated in the provisional data. Japan imported 5.8mn t from Australia in August 2019.

Imports from Russia were flat on the year at around 1.4mn t, while receipts from Indonesia grew by 21pc to 990,000t.

Japanese fossil-fuel-based generation GW

Implied generation costs in Japan $/MWh

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20/11/24

Cop: Australia backs no new coal power call: Correction

Cop: Australia backs no new coal power call: Correction

Corrects missing word in headline London, 20 November (Argus) — Major coal producers Australia and Colombia, along with the EU and 23 other countries including the UK, have pledged not to allow any new unabated coal-fired power generation in their energy systems at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. This comes a day after Colombia, New Zealand and the UK joined a Netherlands-led international coalition focused on phasing out incentives and subsidies for fossil fuels. Most of the coal pact signatories are members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance, under which some countries have committed to phasing out existing unabated coal power generation. Australia is not listed as a member of the alliance, but the cities of Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra are. Unsurprisingly, the list of signatories did not include China or India, the two world's largest coal importers. It also does not include the US, although the country is part of the Powering Past Coal Alliance. "There is no space for new unabated coal in a 1.5°C or even 2°C aligned pathway, yet coal capacity rose by 2pc last year," the pact signatories said today. The pledge focuses on coal-fired generation and does not mention the phasing out of exports or imports. Australia, is the world's second-largest seaborne coal exporter. The country is looking to host Cop 31 in 2026 by outbidding Turkey for the spot. But no realistic policy changes in coal exports is expected from Australia, which will have a federal parliamentary election by May 2025 and winning votes from key coal mining regions in New South Wales and Queensland has proven to be crucial in recent elections. Turkey is on track to overtake Germany as Europe's largest coal-fired generator this year and was not among the signatories of today's coal pledge. Amid calls for a faster phase-down of unabated coal-fired power generation, global coal trade is set to reach a record high of more than 1.5bn t this year , surpassing last year's 1.38bn t, according to IEA data. Coal consumption will probably remain resilient, supported by higher electricity demand growth in China and India. China has not set a new climate plan since 2021, but it is expected to ramp up its ambitions in a new plan due by February 2025. India and Indonesia are strongly encouraging higher coal production to ensure energy security. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in September lowered its forecast for US coal-fired generation in this year but raised its expectation for 2025 . By Shreyashi Sanyal Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesia advances coal-fired power phase-out to 2040


20/11/24
20/11/24

Indonesia advances coal-fired power phase-out to 2040

London, 20 November (Argus) — Indonesia plans to retire all coal-fired power plants within the next 15 years, advancing an earlier target of 2056, President Prabowo Subianto said today. This follows from Subianto's address at the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on 19 November, where he emphasised the importance of global collaboration to achieve green energy transition. He also claimed Indonesia is optimistic it can reach net zero emissions before 2050, a decade ahead of its previous commitment. "We plan to build more than 75GW of renewable energy in the next 15 years [to replace coal-fired power]," Subianto added. His claims come at a time when Indonesia's deputy minister of energy and mineral resources (ESDM) Yuliot Tanjung admitted in a speech today that the country's reliance on coal for electricity is still high. Tanjung said the country has huge potential for solar and hydropower generation, owing to its geographical location, but they require technological developments and large investment. Indonesia has the world's fifth-largest operating coal-fired power capacity of 52.31GW, with about 9.81GW more under construction, according to Global Energy Monitor data. Only about 15pc of Indonesia's total installed generation capacity of more than 90GW is currently powered by renewables. New coal-fired projects have continued to be proposed this year, despite the Indonesian government's previous commitment in 2021 to stop building new coal-fired plants after 2023. In addition to power generation, coal is also heavily utilised in Indonesian industry, which contributed to domestic coal production reaching a record 720mn t so far this year. Indonesia could also be on track for a new output record this year, with ESDM expecting 2024 output to surpass 800mn t, up from 775mn t in 2023, if the current output trend continues for the rest of this year. Indonesia and the Philippines are the two most coal-reliant countries in southeast Asia, according to energy think-tank Ember. By Ashima Sharma Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

China to quit coal baseload power by 2050: Think tank


20/11/24
20/11/24

China to quit coal baseload power by 2050: Think tank

Singapore, 20 November (Argus) — Coal power in China will shift from being a baseload to a backup power source by 2050, according to a government-linked think tank last week. China is expected to move to a cleaner energy system with solar and wind power as its core, displacing coal as the main power source, according to the China Energy Transformation Outlook 2024 released on 13 November at the Cop 29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan. The Energy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, a think tank under China's National Development and Reform Commission, was the key contributor to this report. Installed renewable power capacity is projected to account for 95pc of China's potential total capacity of 10,530-11,820GW in 2060, before which China aims to achieve carbon neutrality, according to the report. Renewable sources are expected to generate 93pc of power in 2060. This would be a significant change from the current mix in China. Renewables made up 52pc of total capacity of 2,920GW in 2023, while thermal power capacity was 48pc, according to China's National Energy Administration. Renewable sources and thermal power, which is mainly coal-fired, generated 30pc and 70pc of power respectively in 2023, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics. "By 2050, coal power will preliminarily serve as an emergency and backup resource for the grid, providing essential support in critical power events," the report said. Solar and wind Significant growth in solar and wind installations is expected to lead China's energy transition, supported by lower costs. Solar power capacity is projected to reach 6,370-7,240GW in 2060, accounting for two-thirds of total capacity, while wind power capacity could reach 2,950-3,460GW, according to the report. Among the installed solar capacity, 70pc will be distributed systems, which are smaller power generation systems compared to large, utility-scale systems. Costs of solar and wind power generation in China have fallen by 80pc and 60pc respectively over the past decade, the report said. The report elaborated on ways to manage the volatility of renewable sources via various energy storage systems. Solar power output usually increases rapidly during the day with abundant sunlight. When output exceeds the power load, energy is stored in pumped hydro, chemical, hydrogen and electrofuels, electric vehicles and industry demand response storages. These storage systems can then discharge electricity to generate power in the evening when solar output stops, and when wind output is low. New energy storage solutions are expected to support increased electrification in China, which will play a key role in reducing the country's carbon emissions, the report said. Electrification involves replacing technologies or processes that use fossil fuels with electrically-powered equivalents, such as electric vehicles. By Jinhe Tan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Coal shipments fall at Australia's PWCS terminals


20/11/24
20/11/24

Coal shipments fall at Australia's PWCS terminals

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Cop: Countries join fossil fuel subsidy phase-out group


19/11/24
19/11/24

Cop: Countries join fossil fuel subsidy phase-out group

Baku, 19 November (Argus) — Colombia, New Zealand and the UK today joined a Netherlands-led international coalition focused on phasing out incentives and subsidies for fossil fuels. They made the announcement at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. The coalition was first formed at Cop 28 in December last year. Member countries that sign up to the coalition commit to publish an inventory of their fossil fuel subsidies a year after joining, and to develop a plan to phase them out. Countries agreed at Cop 26, in 2021, to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, and reaffirmed this a year later at Cop 27. G20 members first pledged in 2009 to do the same. But global fossil fuel consumption subsidies hit over $1.2 trillion in 2022 and more than $600bn in 2023, IEA data show. "We truly feel that this is something we should tackle at a European level as well", EU energy commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said today. "This is something the next Commission will push; this is something I will personally push", he added. New Dutch climate and green growth minister Sophie Hermans admitted that phasing out fossil fuel subsidies is a "sensitive topic", but that the country is working on a plan. The first step is to make transparent which fossil fuels subsidies are in countries' systems, she said. The coalition now has 16 members — Austria, Antigua and Barbuda, Belgium, Canada, Costa Rica, Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Spain and Switzerland, as well as the three countries that joined today. Four members have made their national inventory of fossil fuel subsidies transparent — Belgium, France, Ireland and the Netherlands. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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