Singapore gasoil margins hit record low as supply rises

Spanish Market: Oil products
17/09/20

Singapore gasoil refining margins have fallen to a record low as refiners ramp up production of the fuel to compensate for slumping jet fuel demand.

The Singapore gasoil refining margin, or the premium of Argus Singapore 10ppm gasoil to Dubai crude swaps, fell to a record low of $2.45/bl today from $3.10/bl yesterday, according to Argus assessments. This is the lowest margin since at least July 2006.

Margins have come under pressure as Asia-Pacific refiners maximise gasoil over jet fuel yields. Gasoil and jet fuel are both middle distillates, so lower yields of one product tend to raise output of the other. Jet fuel demand has been slashed by restrictions on air travel imposed to curb the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, encouraging refiners to cut output of the product.

A persistent overhang in European gasoil stocks has also limited arbitrage opportunities to ship gasoil cargoes to Europe, instead keeping excess supplies largely within Asia-Pacific.

The drop in margins comes as Asian gasoil prices fall below gasoline for the first time in two years, because of rising gasoil supplies and strengthening gasoline demand as regional driving activity picks up.

The Argus Singapore 10ppm (0.001pc) gasoil price fell to a discount of $0.20/bl to the Argus Singapore 92R gasoline price in early September. The discount has since widened to $1.82/bl today.

Gasoil was the only transportation fuel that managed to maintain positive margins during the peak of the Covid-19 crisis earlier this year, thanks to demand from the industrial sector and road freight. But prices have now started to weaken because of an onslaught of supplies and subdued regional demand.

By Yawen Lu

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16/01/25

Singapore’s bunker demand hits record high in 2024

Singapore, 16 January (Argus) — Bunker demand at the port of Singapore hit a record high of 54.9mn t in 2024, with Singapore remaining the biggest bunkering hub in the world. "Singapore continues to be the world's largest container transshipment hub," said transport minister Murali Pillai at the Singapore Maritime Foundation (SMF) New Year Conversations this week. Bunker demand jumped by 6pc on the year at the island nation, with total and conventional bunker sales reaching an all-time high, according to the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA). Total container throughput also hit a record high of 41.12mn twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) in 2024, surpassing 40mn TEUs for the first time, Pillai added. This was up from 39m TEUs in 2023. The number of tanker arrivals for the year reached 25,802, up from 24,763 in 2023. Singapore's bunkering of alternative marine fuels also breached the 1mn t mark in 2024, with 882,830t of bio-fuel blends and 463,948t of LNG bunkered at the port. Bunkering of bio-blends, using very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome), jumped by 51pc from 518,000t in 2023 to 779,900t in 2024. Demand for high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO)-based B24 rose to 89,300t in 2024, from only 5,600t bunkered in 2023, as blending HSFO with Ucome picked up. This was supported by more scrubber installations by ship owners and the push to meet green savings targets set by the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) Carbon Intensity Index (CII) and EU-led FuelEU Maritime. Among other alternative marine fuels, LNG bunkering more than quadrupled to 463,900t in 2024 versus 110,900t. Interest to bunker LNG has surged among ship owners in this region since 2024, in an effort to again meet the compliance requirements set by IMO and EU. Methanol for bunkering demand remained modest with sales registered only for one month last year, 1,626t in May. Singapore VLSFO demand declined by 3.7pc from 2023 to 29.6mn t in 2024. Its HSFO demand grew for the fifth year in a row to 20.2mn t in 2024, and was up by 21pc from 2023. Singapore's marine distillates sales rose by 2pc from 2023 to 3.8mn t in 2024, but fell from its 2020 peak of 4.7mn t. Ranking MPA also published a list of its five top biofuel bunker and top 10 conventional bunker suppliers in 2024, which showed some reshuffling. South Korean refiner SK Energy joined Singapore's top five biofuel suppliers in 2024, but it was not on MPA's list of 14 registered biofuel bunker suppliers in 2023. BP had ranked third in 2023, but fell out of the top five in 2024. Chevron, Maersk, Minerva and Vitol were Singapore's other top five biofuel bunker suppliers. Glencore entered the top 10 ranking of conventional marine fuel suppliers in 2024, after it ranked 11th in 2023. Shell ranked ninth in 2023, but dropped out of the top 10 in 2024. The companies which remained in the top 10 were BP, Chevron, Eng Hua, Equatorial, Global Energy, Petrochina International, Sinopec Fuel Oil, TFG Marine and Vitol. Among these, Equatorial, TFG Marine and Chinese suppliers, Petrochina International and Sinopec Fuel Oil, made up the top ranks by volumes in 2023. There were a total of 41 conventional bunker suppliers in Singapore in 2023. By Mahua Chakravarty and Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IEA nudges global refinery runs forecast higher

15/01/25

IEA nudges global refinery runs forecast higher

London, 15 January (Argus) — The IEA has made a marginal increase to its forecast for global refinery runs this year, driven by the "recent resilient performance" of US and European refineries. The Paris-based energy watchdog now expects global crude throughput of 83.4mn b/d in 2025, whereas its previous projection was 83.3mn b/d. At the same time, it has trimmed its estimate for 2024 runs by 20,000 b/d to 82.7mn b/d on the back of downgrades in Asian throughput. The slight upgrade to the 2025 forecast assumes that US and European refineries extend their recent resilience through the first quarter. But "even as we turn more positive on the short-term outlook, it is important to acknowledge that European refineries remain under pressure from shifting trade patterns, rising carbon costs, higher energy outlays and looming capacity closures", the IEA said today in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR). OECD throughput is forecast to fall by 370,000 b/d to 35.7mn b/d this year "as capacity closures in the United States and Europe drag on activity levels", the agency said. But it marks an upwards revision from last month's projection for the OECD of 35.6mn b/d in 2025. The IEA sees non-OECD refinery runs rising by 1mn b/d to 47.6mn b/d this year. This is a downwards adjustment of 80,000 b/d from the last OMR, but the IEA also trimmed its estimate for 2024 non-OECD throughput by the same amount — so the growth rate is unchanged. The 2025 forecasts for India, China, Pakistan, the Philippines and Singapore have all been cut compared with last month's OMR. The IEA now expects Chinese runs to rise by 240,000 b/d to 14.8mn b/d this year. Last month's forecast had Chinese throughput increasing to 14.9mn b/d. "2025 could prove to be another challenging year for Chinese independent refineries, despite increased crude import quotas, as higher import duties squeeze profitability and recent US sanctions impact access to Russian and Iranian barrels," the agency said. The IEA has raised its 2025 forecast for Nigerian throughput by 60,000 b/d to 460,000 b/d, citing the restart of state-owned NNPC's Warri and Port Harcourt refineries and the start-up of Dangote's 150,000 b/d residue fluid catalytic cracking unit. But it noted that challenges remain in terms of crude supply. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: Waste-based biofuel to benefit Dutch bunkering

15/01/25

Q&A: Waste-based biofuel to benefit Dutch bunkering

New York, 15 January (Argus) — With marine fuel greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions regulations tightening, shipowners are looking for financially feasible biofuel options. Argus spoke with Leonidas Kanonis , director for communications and analysis at European waste-based and advanced biofuels association (Ewaba), about biofuels for bunkering. Edited highlights follow. Do you think that the Netherlands government will scrap the HBE-G bio-tickets that it has been allocating for marine fuel for use by ocean-going vessels? HBEs are not disappearing in 2025, and the Dutch system will continue as normal, including HBE-G bio tickets. In 2026, the plan is that HBEs will be scrapped altogether, when the Dutch system switches to an Emissions Reduction Obligation. The Emissions Reduction Obligation would be a transposition of the Renewable Energy Directive (REDIII) spanning all transport sectors and HBEs would not exist under such a system. Annex IX of REDIII lists sustainable biofuel feedstocks for advanced biofuels (Part A) and waste-based biofuels (Part B). Under the proposed REDIII, EWABA is advocating those fuels made from feedstocks listed under Annex IX B, which include used cooking oil and animal fat, be allowed into the sustainability criteria for maritime transport. Allowing only "advanced" feedstocks listed under Annex IX A would put the Dutch bunkering sector at a cost-and-supply disadvantage compared with non-EU ports. The Annex IX B exclusion could also put the Netherlands in danger of not hitting its maritime sector target, which rises from a 3.6pc reduction in GHGs in 2026 to 8.2pc in 2030. Annex IX B biodiesel can bridge the gap while advanced technologies such as ammonia and hydrogen are more widely deployed. The EU imposed anti-dumping taxes on Chinese biodiesel imports in mid-August. What has been the effect on European biodiesel producers? Following the Chinese anti-dumping duties (ADDs), we have seen an uptick in domestic European waste-based biodiesel prices, widening the spread between the end product and the European domestic feedstock itself. On the other hand, on 1 December, the Chinese government cancelled the export tax rebate for used cooking oil (UCO), disincentivizing Chinese exporters and making Chinese UCO more expensive for European buyers. It is still early to say what the trend for 2025 will be, but as an industry we are optimistic about increased European biodiesel production. Over the past two years, our members have been suffering, mostly operating at sub-optimal production levels or forced to shut down production. In 2025, there is reserved optimism that the market will improve due to: the ADDs to Chinese biodiesel, the 2025 FuelEU maritime regulation, and the introduction of the EU Database for Biofuels introduced in 2024, which tracks the lifecycle of biofuels and strengthens transparency. Are there other threats next year that are facing the European waste-based and advanced biofuels producers? Overall challenges for the market would be demand for feedstock from competing industries, largely the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market with the introduction of the ReFuelEU mandate, but also competing regions as the US imported huge amounts of waste feedstocks from China last year, while southeast Asian and UAE countries promote their own bio-blending targets. Do you think Donald Trump's presidency would affect Europe's biofuel markets? We expect the Trump administration to possibly limit feedstock imports from outside the US, boosting the sales of local soybean and other crop feedstocks to produce domestic HVO, SAF and biodiesel. At the same time, the US government has noted they will impose duties on imports coming from anywhere, with China experiencing the most considerable level of duties of up to 60pc. For example, an import tax on European and UK biodiesel would mean that more fuel is available to fulfill the European and UK mandates, as the US is also relying on HVO and FAME from Europe and the UK to fulfill its own mandates. Biofuel for bunkering has been a popular low-carbon fuel option among container ship companies. But oil tanker owners and dry bulk carrier owners are slower to embrace biofuels. Do you see this changing? At the moment, most biofuels used in shipping are indeed for container ship companies that could more easily afford higher prices of bio components. The biofuels industry is receiving a lot of interest from tanker or carrier owners but for lower biofuel blends compared to container ship companies. Container vessels are willing to buy higher biofuel blends and are interested in B100. Oil tankers are focusing more on B15 and higher bio blends to comply with the minimum GHG reduction targets possible. But as the GHG reduction targets on the FuelEU rise, this will of course change as well. In 2030, what do you project will be the demand for biofuels for bunkering in Europe? As an estimation, we expect waste biofuels bunkering demand in Europe to surpass 2-2.5mn tons by 2030. Specification-wise, what are some of biofuel properties that ship owners need to look out for? We don't believe waste-based and advanced biodiesel fuel properties have considerable issues for ship operators. Especially for blends up to B30, there is nothing to worry about. For higher blends, viscosity and stability are the ones that I believe are more important. Storage time is also important to consider due to lower oxidative stability of FAME compared with fossil diesel alternatives that could be stored longer term. By Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Colonial shuts Line 1 due to Georgia spill: Update

14/01/25

Colonial shuts Line 1 due to Georgia spill: Update

Houston, 14 January (Argus) — Colonial Pipeline's main gasoline bearing line may be closed for more than a day as the company responds to a gasoline spill in Georgia detected on Tuesday. "Colonial has taken Line 1 out of service temporarily while we respond to a potential product release," the company said in a notice. "Normal operations continue on the remainder of the system." The spill occurred in Paulding County, Georgia, about 25 miles southwest of Marietta, Georgia. The company said it had crews on site responding to the incident. The company did not provide information on when the line would restart. Market sources said leak was small but it could take up to two days to resume operations. Line 1 has capacity to carry up to 1.3mn b/d of gasoline from Houston, Texas, to Greensboro, North Carolina. Cash prices for US Gulf coast 87 conventional gasoline in the Gulf coast ended Tuesday's session down by 3.19¢/USG at $2.115/USG, reversing gains from the previous session's 14-week high that was driven by higher blending demand. Liquidity fell during Tuesday's trading session with uncertainty over the length of the pipeline shut-down. The pipeline leak did not affect line space trading on Tuesday, which had already been falling. Values saw their sixth session of losses, shedding 0.25¢/USG day-over-day. A trade was reported at -1.5¢/USG, prior to the notice of the pipeline shut down, with no further trades reported for the remainder of the session. By Hannah Borai Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

New York to propose GHG market rules in 'coming months’

14/01/25

New York to propose GHG market rules in 'coming months’

Houston, 14 January (Argus) — Draft rules for New York's carbon market will be ready in the "coming months," governor Kathy Hochul (D) said today. Regulators from the Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) "will take steps forward on" establishing a cap-and-invest program and propose new emissions reporting requirements for sources while also creating "a robust investment planning process," Hochul said during her state of the state message. But the governor did not provide a timeline for the process beyond saying the agency's work do this work "over the coming months." Hochul's remarks come after regulators in September delayed plans to begin implementing New York's cap-and-invest program (NYCI) to 2026. At the time, DEC deputy commissioner Jon Binder said that draft regulations would be released "in the next few months." DEC, NYSERDA and Hochul's office each did not respond to requests for comment. Some environmental groups applauded Hochul's remarks, while also expressing concern about the state's next steps. Evergreen Action noted that the timeline for NYCI "appears uncertain" and called on lawmakers to "commit to this program in the 2025 budget." "For New York's economy, environment and legacy, we hope the governor commits to finalizing a cap-and-invest program this year," the group said. State law from 2019 requires New York to achieve a 40pc reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 1990 levels by 2030 and an 85pc reduction by 2050. A state advisory group in 2022 issued a scoping plan that recommended the creation of an economy-wide carbon market to help the state reach those goals. By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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