Opec+ output inches down as compliance improves

Spanish Market: Crude oil
07/10/20

Crude production from countries participating in the Opec+ deal edged lower last month as compliance with pledged output cuts continued to improve.

The 19 deal participants produced a total of 34.22mn b/d in September, 50,000 b/d lower than August, giving an overall compliance rate of 103pc, according to Argus' latest monthly survey of Opec+ production. Compliance among the 10 Opec deal participants inched up from August's 103pc to 106pc, while overall Opec output — including deal-exempt Iran, Libya and Venezuela — shed 30,000 b/d to 24.04mn b/d. Gabon and Congo (Brazzaville) were the only Opec members that failed to fulfil their pledges.

Chronic overproducers Iraq and Nigeria produced below their quotas for the second consecutive month. They both remain under pressure to make additional cuts to compensate for overproducing in previous months. Iraq is among the countries that have already submitted compensation plans, according to an Opec+ document seen by Argus.

Opec's de facto leader Saudi Arabia produced just under its 8.99mn b/d quota last month. Higher crude exports — up by 5pc to 6.24mn b/d in September, including Riyadh's share of Neutral Zone shipments — offset a decline in domestic consumption. Analysts estimate Saudi crude use for power generation dropped to just 350-580,000 b/d last month from 700-900,000 b/d in August.

The biggest month-month drop among Opec countries came from the UAE, which produced 80,000 b/d below its 2.59mn b/d ceiling. An increase in direct crude burning for power generation pushed the country to a rare breach of its quota in August. Abu Dhabi plans to continue tightening supplies this month and next — state-owned Adnoc has cut crude allocations by 30pc and 25pc for October and November, respectively.

The largest monthly increase among Opec members came from Libya after the country's warring factions reached a landmark agreement to resume crude production and exports from onshore fields and ports that that have been intermittently blockaded since January. Libyan output hit 285,000-300,000 b/d in recent days, according to a source in the country.

Conformity among the nine non-Opec countries participating in the Opec+ deal softened to 98pc in September, when combined output increased by 60,000 b/d from August to 12.67mn b/d. Russia, the largest non-Opec producer, increased production by 40,000 b/d to 9.08mn b/d, leaving it 90,000 b/d above its quota. Seasonal refinery maintenance will remove almost 250,000 b/d of domestic crude demand in Russia this month, but exports of Russian Urals, Siberian Light and ESPO Blend are scheduled to rise by around 210,000 b/d to 3.17mn b/d.

Azeri production inched higher, but this month's output is at risk of disruption if the 1.2mn b/d Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) crude pipeline suffers collateral damage from the conflict with neighbouring Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Armenia has denied that it is deliberately targeting the BTC infrastructure.

Minor producer South Sudan was once again over its output limit last month, having exceeded its target by an average 46,000 b/d in May-August. The country wants to renegotiate its Opec+ quota because some fields have restarted since it joined the coalition, oil ministry under-secretary Awow Daniel Chuang told Argus.

By Ruxandra Iordache

Opec+ wellhead production				mn b/d

	September	August	September target	Compliance %
Opec 10	21.55	21.66*	21.82	106
Non-Opec 10‡	12.67	12.61	12.60	98
Total	34.22	34.27*	34.42	103
Opec
Saudi Arabia	8.96	8.92*	8.99	102
Iraq	3.71	3.67	3.80	111
Kuwait	2.28	2.28	2.30	103
UAE	2.51	2.70	2.59	114
Algeria	0.84	0.85	0.86	112
Nigeria	1.48	1.45	1.50	104
Angola	1.20	1.24	1.25	118
Congo (Brazzaville)	0.29	0.26	0.27	68
Gabon	0.18	0.17	0.15	21
Equatorial Guinea	0.10	0.13	0.10	117
Opec 10	21.55	21.66*	21.82	106
Iran	1.97	1.95	na	na
Libya	0.14	0.09	na	na
Venezuela	0.38	0.37	na	na
Total Opec 13†	24.04	24.07*	na	na
Non-Opec 10‡
Russia	9.08	9.04	8.99	96
Mexico‡	1.70	1.63	na	na
Oman	0.72	0.72	0.72	102
Azerbaijan	0.59	0.58	0.59	100
Kazakhstan	1.38	1.38	1.40	105
Malaysia	0.46	0.43	0.49	123
Bahrain	0.15	0.15	0.17	159
Brunei	0.08	0.09	0.08	132
Sudan	0.06	0.06	0.06	121
South Sudan	0.17	0.17	0.11	-146
Total non-Opec‡	12.67	12.61	12.60	98
*Revised †Iran, Libya, Venezuela exempt
‡Mexico not counted in deal after June 2020

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03/05/25

Opec+ eight agree accelerated hike for June: Update

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members has agreed to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, the Opec secretariat said Saturday. As it did for May, the group will again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision means that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June is somewhat surprising, given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. But the eight today pointed to "current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories" as a key factor in its latest decision. It reiterated, as it has in the past, that the gradual monthly increases "may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions." As was the case for May, delegates said that the main driver for the June hike was again a desire to send a message to those countries that have persistently breached their production targets since the start of last year — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq, which each have significant overproduction to compensate for through the middle of next year. "This measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation," the secretariat said. This group of eight is due to next meet on 1 June to review market conditions and decide on July production levels. By Nader Itayim, Aydin Calik and Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June

03/05/25

Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members look set to today to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, four delegates told Argus . As it did for May, the group would again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision would mean that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June would be somewhat surprising, particularly given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. While Opec+ has said that it is acting to support an expected rise in summer demand, the decision to speed up the output increases once again appears to be driven by a desire to send a message to countries that have persistently breached their production targets — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq. By Aydin Calik, Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration

02/05/25

Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration

Dubai, 2 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ producers meet on 3 May to decide whether to repeat last month's surprise move to add extra oil to an increasingly weak market. The main motivation for the group of eight's decision to triple the size of their output increase for May remains, suggesting that a repeat could be on the cards for June. As the dust began to settle on last month's decision, it became clear that raising their combined output target by 411,000 b/d in one month, rather than the scheduled 137,000 b/d, was rooted not only in stronger fundamentals, as the official communique suggests, but also in a desire to send a message to those countries that have persistently breached their production targets. The main culprits are Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have consistently failed to keep their production in check since the start of last year (see graph). The two are left with a lot to do by way of compensating for those excess barrels between now and the middle of next year (see graph). Russia, too, has overproduced during that period, but to a much lesser degree relative to its overall output. That persistent overproduction has been a source of deep frustration among other countries in the group of eight — principally the core of Opec's Mideast Gulf members — that have "sacrificed", in the words of one delegate, to adhere to their targets. April's decision was a nod to those that have sacrificed and a sharp warning to Kazakhstan and Iraq to do better and to do so quickly. Two delegates stressed to Argus at the time that the coming weeks would be critical for Baghdad and Astana to show that they were serious about abiding by their quotas. Failure to do so could trigger another "surprise" move for June, they said, possibly even another three-in-one hike. It was little surprise, then, that some ill-timed comments by Kazakh energy minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov on 23 April — in which he explicitly said Astana's national interests take priority over its Opec+ commitments, and that the country simply "cannot" reduce output — triggered serious speculation about whether the eight may repeat last month's decision. March data from Iraq, too, were not ideal, in that while they showed that Iraq did produce below quota, its efforts to compensate fell well short. Timing is everything Some in the group of eight may well be tempted to go down that route, thinking a second consecutive "shock" could deliver the desired wake-up call that the first did not. Two delegate sources confirmed to Argus that another 411,000 b/d target increase for June remains a distinct possibility. But such a course of action would be risky. Crude is already trading $12/bl below where it was when the group last met, and demand-side concerns are again on the rise because of the potential impact of US trade tariffs. The Opec secretariat and the IEA downgraded 2025 oil demand growth forecasts in their latest oil market outlooks. Opec revised its forecast down to 1.3mn b/d from 1.45mn b/d in its previous report. The IEA revised down its forecast by a sizeable 310,000 b/d to 730,000 b/d for 2025, despite "robust" consumption in the first quarter. It downgraded its forecast for April-December by 400,000 b/d. Another three-in-one hike for June would be "difficult" to imagine in this market, one delegate says. With that said, the eight's options include a "standard" 137,000 b/d rise to the group's collective target for June, in line with the original schedule, or, at a push, a two-in-one hike. That would not only send that internal message to the least compliant of the group, but also act as a show of good faith towards US president Donald Trump ahead of his visit to Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha on 13-16 May. By Nader Itayim, Bachar Halabi and Aydin Calik Opec+ overproducers Opec+ compensation plan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Chevron has not discussed Kazakhstan Opec+ target: CEO

02/05/25

Chevron has not discussed Kazakhstan Opec+ target: CEO

London, 2 May (Argus) — Chevron has not held discussions with Kazakhstan about the country's Opec+ targets, chief executive Mike Wirth said today. Kazakhstan's production surged to a record 1.79mn b/d in March , following the start up of a new project at the Chevron-led Tengiz field in January. This left the country 322,000 b/d above its Opec+ target of 1.468mn b/d for the month. Kazakhstan has repeatedly vowed to comply with its Opec+ commitments, and said it would ask foreign operators at its Tengiz and Kashagan fields to reduce output. "We don't engage in discussions about Opec or Opec+ targets," Wirth said on Chevron's first-quarter earnings call today. "The barrels we produce at [Tengiz] are of high value to the government, they're important to their fiscal balance and historically those barrels have not been curtailed." Tengiz production was 901,000 b/d in March, compared with around 600,000-660,000 b/d before the new project came online. Italy's Eni, which is a key partner at the 400,000 b/d Kashagan field, made similar remarks last week. "Neither the operator of the asset, nor the shareholder and the contracting company have been engaged by the authority for any production cuts," said Eni's chief financial officer Francesco Gattei. Kazakhstan is one of the Opec+ alliance's largest overproducers, and there has been no indication that it has tried to reduce output in line with its targets. Kazakhstan's continued overproduction is understood to have contributed towards the decision by eight Opec+ members to add extra crude to the market in May . The eight will meet on 3 May to decide on production levels for June. Two delegate sources told Argus that another 411,000 b/d target increase for June remains a distinct possibility. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Carney to meet with Trump on 6 May

02/05/25

Carney to meet with Trump on 6 May

Calgary, 2 May (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney will meet with US president Donald Trump on 6 May to try to resolve an ongoing trade war while also discussing the future economic relationship between the two countries. Carney announced his Washington travel plans Friday in his first media appearance following his 28 April election victory , where his Liberal party won 169 of a possible 343 seats in Parliament. Carney's predecessor Justin Trudeau in late November tried to diffuse a trade war before it began in a meeting with Trump, but subsequently was on the receiving end of public taunts about Canada's sovereignty and becoming the US' 51st state. Trump did not say or insinuate that Canada should become the 51st state when they spoke this week, according to Carney. The US has imposed a 25pc tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum since 13 March and Canadian automobiles since 9 April, prompting retaliatory tariffs by Canada. The trade war sparked a wave of anti-US sentiment and became a focal point of the election, contributing to a remarkable rebound for the Liberal party who only months ago faced slim odds of returning to power. "As I've stressed repeatedly, our old relationship, based on steadily increasing integration, is over," said Carney. "The questions now, are how our nations will cooperate in the future, and where we, in Canada, will move on." Carney has vowed to make Canada the fastest growing economy in the G7 with new alliances abroad and yet-to-be decided infrastructure projects playing a key role. "Canada does have other options and that is clear," said Carney, speaking in French. Carney's new cabinet will be sworn in during the week of 12 May and Parliament will return to session on 26 May. Absent will be Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who suffered a surprising loss in his constituency and was painted by the Liberals as being too much like Trump. He will be on the outside looking in unless a byelection occurs, which would likely require a Conservative surrendering their seat. If the Conservatives do trigger a byelection to try to get Poilievre back into Parliament, Carney said he will ensure that it happens "as soon as possible". By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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