US coking coal exports partly recover in 3Q

Spanish Market: Coking coal
05/11/20

US third quarter coking coal exports recovered from the second quarter but fell from a year earlier as global demand made a partial recovery from its lowest points.

The US exported 9.24mn t of coking coal in the third quarter, a quarterly increase of 13pc but an annual decrease of 21.4pc.

September exports recovered from a lull in August in the vast majority of destinations, but September's total was 24pc below the same month last year. Brazil was the biggest destination for US coking coal in the third quarter and 791,242t shipped in September, driving a 13.7pc year-on-year increase in exports to Brazil in the third quarter to 1.71mn t.

There was a seasonal rise in shipments to Canada as mills sought to stock up before winter. The US shipped 449,352t to Canada in September, a 60pc increase from August, but still 12.6pc less than in September 2019.

US exports to Europe were up by 31.8pc from the second quarter but fell by 17.6pc year on year to 2.89mn t. European buying has been been steady in the third quarter, firms said, but there has been little extra demand amid weakened economies and resurging Covid-19 cases.

Turkey, India, and Ukraine were exceptions among major buyers as US shipments to these destinations fell on a quarterly basis. Shipments to Turkey fell by 23pc on the quarter to 686,343t, but this was an annual increase of over 50pc, as Turkish mills took advantage of sharply reduced global demand in the second quarter and continued to do so while demand recovered in the third quarter. Shipments to India fell by 21.8pc on the quarter and 18.3pc on the year to 781,215t with steel production declining as the country's new Covid-19 cases reached a peak of almost 100,000/d in September.

Shipments to Japan fell by 43pc year on year in the third quarter to 824,835t.

The US exported a 120,000t cargo to China in September, the first in four months. Further deals into China are expected in the fourth quarter following China's ban on imports of Australian coal.

The rise in third quarter exports combined with a continued reduction of output, as US production contracted by around 4pc from the second quarter and 38pc from a year earlier. Stronger fundamentals are now supporting the Argus fob Hampton Roads assessment for low-volatile and high-volatile A coal above the Australian premium low-volatile assessment, which has been weighed on by the import ban

By Brendan Kjellberg-Motton

US coking coal exports						t
Destination	Sep-20	Sep-19	±%	Q3 2020	Q2 2020	±%

World	3,214,395	4,275,373	-25	9,237,571	11,753,293	-21
Brazil	791,242	491,958	61	1,705,587	1,500,008	14
Canada	449,352	513,978	-13	1,118,986	1,300,421	-14
Netherlands	178,530	314,406	-43	930,546	848,802	10
Japan	391,193	548,028	-29	824,835	1,453,774	-43
India	230,562	200,034	15	781,215	956,008	-18
Turkey	166,900	199,037	-16	686,343	437,808	57
Ukraine	71,644	421,324	-83	566,503	1,296,961	-56
Austria	104,247	257,155	-59	315,293	458,210	-31
United Kingdom	136,275	167,060	-18	288,063	351,884	-18
Korea (Republic of)	0	410,239	-100	285,435	689,085	-59
Croatia	77,006	138,095	-44	281,882	396,698	-29
Italy	107,860	177,484	-39	260,289	493,894	-47
Poland	158,624	55,000	188	227,987	143,533	59
China (People's Republic of)	120,000	0	n/a	120,000	104,450	15

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19/12/24

Strikes at Australian commodity ports to continue

Sydney, 19 December (Argus) — Workers at major commodity ports across Australia will strike next week, in response to stalling negotiations with port operators. Queensland In northern Queensland, unions representing almost 200 workers have notified the Gladstone Ports (GPC) that they plan to launch work stoppages at the LNG and coal hub next week, a source told Argus. The strike actions follow an earlier day-long work stoppage involving over 100 workers at the port that began earlier this week. The dispute between GPC and its workers is centred around wage and rostering proposals. GPC and unions representing its workers have not scheduled any further bargaining meetings, multiple sources have told Argus . Gladstone's ship queue has exceeded 30 ships multiple times since work stoppages began on 17 December. This compared with a queue of 48 ships in December 2023, after Cyclone Jasper forced three other north Queensland ports to turn vessels away for four days. To the south of Gladstone, 100 workers at the Qube-operated Port of Brisbane will also stop working between 23-27 December, according to maritime logistics firm GAC. The stoppage announcement follows a day-long strike at multiple Qube ports , which began on 16 December. Before the strike began, a Qube representative warned that strikes at its ports would "inevitably [cause] disruption to supply chains for key commodities like fertiliser, grain, and steel." The Port of Brisbane is a major oil and meat port. New South Wales Along Australia's eastern coast, workers at Qube's major coal, grain, and fertiliser port in Port Kembla are planning to strike for a longer period of time than their colleagues in other parts of the country. GAC has reported that workers will launch 13 rolling work stoppages at the port between 20 December and 3 January. There are 141 members of the Construction, Forestry and Maritime Employees Union (CFMEU) participated in a strike authorisation vote at the site in early September, and have been engaged in industrial actions since then. Port Kembla also faced a day-long work stoppage earlier this week. Northern Territory Union members in Darwin are planning to not work for 1½ day beginning on 23 December. Like the Port of Brisbane, Darwin tends to handle livestock and oil products. But only 37 workers were eligible to participate in a successful mid-September union ballot authorising work stoppages at the port. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: More US met coal consolidation ahead

18/12/24

Viewpoint: More US met coal consolidation ahead

London, 18 December (Argus) — Expectations that weak seaborne coking coal prices in the last quarter of 2024 will carry over to 2025 in the face of low steel prices is pointing to further consolidation among US coking coal producers. Consol Energy and Arch Resources set up the most significant merger of 2024 for the US market , with the merged company expected to generate $110mn-140mn of cost savings and "operational synergies" within 6-18 months of the close of the transaction. But continuing cost pressures will likely lead to closures of smaller high-cost mines, not uncommon in the past when US coking coal prices have reached a down cycle. The fob Australia premium low volatile (PLV) coking coal price fell from this summer's high of $260/t in early July to average $203.46/t from the start of October, translating to prices that are below cost for many US producers. In recent years, price volatility and lack of liquidity, particularly in the Atlantic market, has meant many buyers have chosen to buy at index-linked prices, often with fob Australia indexes. The fob US east coast price has averaged $192.84/t for the current quarter, while the high volatile A fob Hampton Road price has averaged $186.47/t in the same period, prices cited by many US producers at near or even below cost after taking into consideration rail and port handling charges. Lower cost longwall miners like Alpha Met Resources reported an average sale cost of $114.27/short ton ($125.96/t) in the third quarter for metallurgical coal, Arch Resources reported $93.81/st for the same and Warrior Met Coal indicated $120.21/st. But others such as Corsa are in clear loss-making territory at $169/st. After freight and handling charges, many of these producers will have fob equivalent costs closer to $170-190/t or even above $200/t for smaller continuous mining operations. The poor margins has also meant US producers like Ramaco have cut back their guidance while lost output capacity has failed to lift prices . Last month, many US producers have already looked to reduce shifts by extending time off for the holidays and hunting season. But this has still failed to stem supplies, particularly in the high volatile coal segment where traders and suppliers that had secured tonnes earlier this year or more recently via term contracts have been offering prices at steep discounts for on-water cargoes to Asia and port stocks in China. US producers have been focusing their efforts on sales to Asia in the face of weak demand in Europe, leading to the absence of much incremental coking coal demand in the region since last year. In a time of high fob Australia prices, margins for US sales to Asia might have been attractive. But with low Australian prices and competition from Russia and Mongolia continuing to grow, the second half of 2024 has seen poor margins for US sales to Asia. While Russian mining costs have risen, they are still well under the levels in the US. Industry sources peg average production cost for open-pit mining in the Kuzbass region at $18.37-35.75/t, excluding value-added tax (VAT), while underground mining stands at $24.83-60.58/t, excluding VAT, according to sources at Russian coal mining companies. Russian coal is also typically discounted to account for sanctions and difficulties with payments, and more recently the export duty on Russian coking coal was removed. US president-elect Donald Trump's threat to impose import tariffs on all imports from China has drawn concern in the market about China imposing retaliatory tariffs on US coal. In a well-supplied market and the presence of strong competing producing countries at key import destinations, many US producers expect they will have to absorb any increase in tariff to secure sales to China. At a recent industry conference in Prague, several participants indicated the fob Australia PLV index should be in the region of $220-225/t to be sustainable for the wider industry. By Siew Hua Seah Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Workers strike at Australia's Gladstone port

17/12/24

Workers strike at Australia's Gladstone port

Sydney, 17 December (Argus) — Union members are engaging in a day-long work stoppage at Queensland's Port of Gladstone today, as port strikes spread across Australia. Gladstone Ports is "experiencing impact to some Port operations due to union-led protected industrial action," a company spokesperson confirmed to Argus . "GPC has been engaged in contingency planning and is liaising with customers to minimise operational impacts while prioritising safety," the representative said. Five unions, representing hundreds of GPC workers, voted to authorise a range of strike actions, including unlimited work stoppages, last week. The current day-long stoppage does not involve all five of those unions, although the non-participating unions may engage in industrial actions over the coming days. The port of Gladstone is a major coal and LNG hub. Queensland exporters shipped 63.7mn t of coal and 23mn t of LNG out of the port in 2023, supporting the state's resource sectors. The Gladstone stoppage comes alongside day-long work stoppages at operator Qube's ports across Australia that began on 16 December. Maritime Union of Australia (MUA) workers last week decided that they would launch 24-hour stoppages at the ports of Kembla, Brisbane, and Darwin, on 16 December. These ports tend to handle grains, livestock, petroleum, and coal shipments. Qube is also expecting the MUA to shortly launch industrial actions at the ports of Dampier, Freemantle, Port Hedland, Bunbury, Geraldton, and Whyalla. The company's Port Hedland and Dampier facilities play a major role in supporting Western Australia's mineral sector, handling iron mined by most of the state's major miners. Union and GPC negotiators have been locked in discussions over the GPC Enterprise Agreement for months, unable to agree on wage and rostering proposals. Qube and the MUA similarly disagree over wage and employment condition proposals. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US rail group optimistic about 2025 rail demand

12/12/24

US rail group optimistic about 2025 rail demand

Washington, 12 December (Argus) — US rail volume is likely to start strong in 2025, but railroads will need to navigate changing federal policies, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) said. Volume next year hinges on a few key factors, including the resilience of consumer spending, strength in the labor market, and the trajectory of inflation and interest rates, the group said. Railroads will need to remain vigilant as these economic indicators will be critical in helping assess rail traffic and broader economic health in the months ahead, AAR said. "Strong intermodal growth and stable consumer demand offers reasons for optimism," AAR said. "But railroads and the economy alike must navigate evolving policies and potential disruptions" as the US enters 2025 under a new administration, the group said. The AAR'S optimism comes as rail traffic in November "while by no means stellar, suggests that the broader economy remains on stable footing", AAR said. US intermodal rail volume set new records in November. The increase reflected strong consumer demand following job gains that pushed increased spending, AAR said. Intermodal traffic is made up primarily of consumer goods shipped in containers between different modes of transportation, although some scrap metal and specialty agriculture products ship this way. US railroads loaded an average of 282,000 intermodal containers and trailers per week, up by 11pc from a year earlier. That was the highest weekly average for any November since AAR began tracking intermodal data in 1989. Carload traffic fell by 3.8pc compared with November 2023. Carload traffic is primarily made up of commodities. Coal was the "biggest problem", AAR said. US railroads loaded 15pc less coal last month compared with a year earlier, while year-to-date loadings were down by 14pc from the same 11 months in 2023. If coal were excluded, monthly US carload traffic in November would have notched a 10th consecutive year-on-year increase. Industrial products volume was down by 1pc from a year earlier. Manufacturing is a major driver of US carload traffic, and that sector remains sluggish, AAR said. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's BOM forecasts severe cyclone season

27/11/24

Australia's BOM forecasts severe cyclone season

Sydney, 27 November (Argus) — Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) expects the country to experience 11 tropical storms over the next few months, threatening the country's mineral-rich Pilbara region and coal infrastructure in Queensland. The number of storms is in line with historical averages, but BOM warns that rising ocean temperatures could increase their severity. The state weather agency believes that four of these storms will make landfall from late December, and that a La Nina event could start later this year, although it may not last very long. La Nina events are associated with high levels of cyclonic activity. BOM's forecasts suggest that five of the storms are likely to form around Western Australia's mineral-rich Pilbara region, which houses more than 40 operating iron ore mines and two lithium mines. Over the last three months, sea surface temperatures around Pilbara have exceeded historical averages by 1.2–2°C, warming more than in any of the country's other cyclone-prone regions. On the other side of the country, four tropical storms could form around Queensland's cattle and coking coal producing regions, although these are likely to be less severe than the Pilbara storms. Temperatures across most of Queensland are forecast to exceed historical averages by 0.4–1.2°C in October-December. Cyclonic weather in Pilbara could disrupt iron shipping and mining activity in the region. Australia's three largest iron export ports sit along the region's coast. In 2019, Cyclone Veronica forced the closure of Pilbara's three major ports and multiple mines operated by mining company Rio Tinto, prompting the firm to cut its production forecasts for the year. Harsh storms in Queensland have previously damaged vital coal transport links in the state, hampering exports. In 2017, Cyclone Debbie damaged rail lines linking coal mines to the ports of Gladstone, Hay Point, Dalrymple Bay, and Abbott Point, which handle most of the state's coking coal exports. More recently, severe weather also halted deliveries to Mackay port . Queensland and Pilbara are also home to major LNG terminals at Dampier and Gladstone ports that sit within cyclone-prone zones. The two terminals together export over 3mn t/month of LNG . By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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