The Iranian authorities have imposed a new two-week lockdown throughout the country in an effort to stem a new resurgence in Covid-19 cases. The restrictions on movement and travel will likely deal another blow to the fragile recovery in transport fuel demand in the country.
The new, tougher restrictions came into force on 21 November and are intended to last for two weeks, by which point the government says it hopes to have gotten the outbreak under control. But Iran's president Hassan Rohani warned last week that at least some of these new measures could extend well beyond that, and potentially into the new Iranian year which begins on 20 March, if necessary.
150 towns and cities, including the capital Tehran, have been designated high-risk red zones, where all non-essential businesses have been closed. And in those essential business which remain open – including banks, grocery stores and hospitals - only one-third of the workforce are being allowed to go to work. Movement within these red zone cities has also been restricted to within 04:00 and 21:00 daily, with fines issued to anyone breaking the rules. Cars with non-local registration plates will not be allowed to enter the red zones.
Another 150 and 155 cities have been designated medium-risk orange zones and low-risk yellow zones respectively, where similar restrictions on movement have been placed, albeit without a curfew. In orange zones up to half of the workforce of essential businesses are being permitted to go to work, while in yellow zones this increases to two-thirds. In both of these zones, some non-essential businesses are also being allowed to remain open, but only until 18:00.
Cultural and religious venues, meanwhile, have also all been suspended in all zones, and entertainment and recreational facilities closed down.
"The main objective is to contain the spread of the virus and identify and treat infected people as soon as possible and offer good healthcare to people who must be put in quarantine," said Rohani.
The new measures are similar to those that were imposed shortly after the outbreak first hit the country in the first quarter and reflect a sharp increase in both the number of daily Covid-19 cases and Covid-19-related deaths in the country over the past few weeks. In the seven days leading up to 21 November, Iran reported and average of 13,100 new cases daily, up from 10,200 in the first two weeks of the month, and around 5,000 per day in October. Covid-19-related deaths have averaged more than 450 since mid-November, up from 229 in the first half of October.
Rohani said that the government has also approved a plan to issue financial support to Iran's lowest income families over the next four months to help navigate the current circumstances. "Ten million households will each receive a 10mn rial loan [$380], which can be repaid in installments over 30 months," he said.
Latest available data show that Iranian gasoline consumption averaged 410,000-440,000 b/d in early August, up significantly from around 313,000 b/d at the height of the first round of restrictions in April. But this was still down from pre-pandemic levels of around 475,000 b/d in December last year. Consumption is already likely to have fallen since August.
Iran's land borders with all neighboring countries also remain closed to passenger traffic, bar Armenia, which has also kept a lid on transport fuel demand.
