Bavaria Covid restrictions to keep road fuel demand low

Spanish Market: Oil products
07/12/20

The German region of Bavaria will go into tighter lockdown restrictions from 9 December in response to high Covid-19 infection rates, which will probably keep demand for road fuels low as people work from home.

The restrictions will mean that residents can only leave home for work and education, or for basics like groceries and medicine. Hot spots with over 200 infections per 100,000 people will go into curfew from 21:00-05:00. Bavaria, which includes the cities of Munich and Nuremberg, has the third highest infection rate in Germany with an average of 175 infections per 100,000 people over the past seven days, data from the Robert Koch institute show.

Germany has been in partial lockdown from 2 November, but these new measures in Bavaria will be the strictest in the country. When the partial lockdown began, German filling station owners reported that consumer demand for fuel fell by around 10-20pc compared with pre-crisis levels. Tighter restrictions in Bavaria may encourage some consumers in the state to choose their car over public transport, but fuel demand for personal vehicles is likely to remain low or even decrease slightly. Most recent German road fuels demand data show a sharper year on year fall for gasoline than for diesel.

German diesel demand has remained stable through the latest lockdown. A carbon tax being introduced next year has incentivised consumers in the agricultural sector to buy diesel and heating oil now to save money come January, when Argus estimates the tax will add least €74/t to heating oil and road fuel prices.

Restrictions in Bavaria will ease for four days over Christmas, when up to 10 people can gather indoors, but this exception will end before the new year celebrations. Nationally, Germany has extended its lockdown until 10 January.

By Sian Morris and Marc Hauschild

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14/05/25

German road firms issued €10.5mn tender-rigging fines

London, 14 May (Argus) — German competition authorities have found seven companies guilty of co-ordinating tenders and contracts with order values usually of between €40,000 and €200,000. The German Federal Cartel Office (Bundeskartellamt) imposed fines totalling €10.5mn ($11.8mn) on seven road repair companies for customer and tender collusion, it announced on 13 May. The companies involved are AS Asphaltstrassensanierung, bausion Strassenbau-Produkte, Bitunovia, Gerhard Herbers, alles fur den Bau, Mainka Strassenunterhaltung, and Muritzer Oberflechentechnik (Mot). The companies AS, bausion, Herbers and Bitunova were found to have divided various clients from the federal states of Saxony, Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt among themselves across 2018 and 2019. In 2016-19, the companies bausion, Liesen, Mainka and Mot were discovered to have regularly co-ordinated on tenders from public contracting authorities in Brandenburg and, in 2016 and 2017, Saxony-Anhalt, and the companies Liesen and Mot also co-ordinated tenders in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The violations affected a large number of tenders and contracts from public contracting authorities such as municipalities and state road construction authorities. The orders included road repair measures including surface treatment, patching of road surfaces, crack repair or the supply of bitumen emulsion or chippings. In addition to breaking antitrust law, the bid agreements are also punishable under Section 298 of the Criminal Code. The findings came to a head when the German Federal Cartel Office carried out a search operation in August 2019 together with the Dusseldorf Public Prosecutor's Office and the North Rhine-Westphalia State Criminal Police Office. When setting the fine, it was taken into account that Bitunovia had co-operated with the federal office within the framework of the leniency programme. All proceedings were concluded by way of amicable settlement and the fine notices are final. By Fenella Rhodes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US budget bill would prolong 45Z, boost crops

13/05/25

US budget bill would prolong 45Z, boost crops

New York, 13 May (Argus) — A proposal from House Republican tax-writers would extend for four additional years a new tax credit for low-carbon fuels and adjust the incentive to be more lenient to crops used for biofuels. Republicans on the House Ways and Means Committee on Monday introduced their draft portion of a far-reaching budget bill, which included various changes to Inflation Reduction Act clean energy subsidies. But the "45Z" Clean Fuel Production Credit, which requires fuels to meet an initial carbon intensity threshold and then ups the subsidy as emissions fall, would be the only incentive from the 2022 climate law to last even longer than Democrats planned under the current draft. The proposal represents an early signal of Republicans' plans for major legislation through the Senate's reconciliation process, which allows budget-related bills to pass with a simple majority vote. The full Ways and Means Committee will consider amendments at a markup this afternoon, and House leaders want the full chamber to vote on the larger budget bill before the US Memorial Day holiday on 26 May. Afterwards, the proposal would head to the Republican-controlled Senate, where lawmakers could float further changes. But the early draft, in a chamber with multiple deficit hawks and climate change skeptics that have pushed for a full repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act, is remarkable for not just keeping but expanding 45Z. The basics of the incentive — offering benefits to producers instead of blenders, throttling benefits based on carbon intensity, and offering more credit to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) — would remain intact. Various changes would help fuels derived from US crops. 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Since the House proposal does not address the current law's blunt system for rounding emissions values up and down, relatively higher-carbon corn and canola fuels still face the risk of falling just below 45Z's required carbon intensity threshold but then being rounded up to a level where they receive zero subsidy. The House bill would also restrict eligibility to fuels derived from feedstocks sourced in the US, Canada, and Mexico — an attempt at a middle ground between refiners that have increasingly looked abroad for biofuel inputs and domestic farm groups that have lobbied for 45Z to prioritize US crops. That language would make more durable current restrictions on foreign used cooking oil and significantly reduce the incentive to import tallow from South America and Australia, a loss for major renewable diesel producers Diamond Green Diesel, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum. The provision would also hurt US biofuel producer LanzaJet, which has imported lower-carbon Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as a SAF feedstock to the chagrin of domestic corn ethanol producers. The bill would also require regulators to set more granular carbon intensity calculations for different types of animal manure biogas projects, all of which are treated the same under current rules. Other lifecycle emissions models treat some dairy projects at deeply negative carbon intensities. Those changes to carbon intensity calculations and feedstock eligibility would kick in starting next year, meaning current rules would remain intact for now. The proposal would however phase out the ability of clean energy companies without enough tax liability to claim the full value of Inflation Reduction Act subsidies to sell those tax credits to other businesses. 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The spread between soybean oil and heating oil futures is then highly influential for the cost of D4 biomass-based diesel RIN credits, which are crucial for biofuel margins and have recently surged in value to their highest prices in over a year. The more lenient carbon accounting will also help farmers eyeing a long-term future in renewable fuel markets and will support margins for ethanol and biodiesel producers reliant on crops. Corn and soy groups have pushed the government for less punitive emissions tracking, worried that crop demand could wane if refiners could only turn a profit by using lower-carbon waste feedstocks instead. The House bill, if passed, would still run up against contradictory incentives from other governments, including SAF mandates in Europe that restrict fuels from crops and California's efforts to soon limit state low-carbon fuel standard credits for fuels derived from vegetable oils. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico industrial production contracts in March

13/05/25

Mexico industrial production contracts in March

Mexico City, 13 May (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production contracted by 0.9pc in March from the previous month, as declines in mining and manufacturing were only partly offset by continued growth in construction. The drop was not enough to undo the 2.2pc increase in February — the sharpest monthly expansion in four years — as manufacturers ramped up output ahead of incoming US tariffs. The March industrial production index (IMAI), published by statistics agency Inegi, was higher than Mexican bank Banorte's forecast of a 1.4pc decline. Banorte noted signs of volatility affecting manufacturing and other sectors because of a complex trade outlook. Manufacturing contracted 1.1pc in March after expanding 2.9pc in February. The impact varied across subsectors, with metal goods down 5.5pc and transportation, including auto production, down 1.1pc. Volatility may ease in the coming months as US tariff policies become clearer and Mexican officials push to preserve the country's trade edge under US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement rules, Banorte said. Construction expanded 0.8pc in March, following increases of 3.4pc in February and 0.5pc in January, driven by higher public investment tied to President Claudia Sheinbaum's economic plan, "Plan Mexico." Analysts see the plan as a catalyst for continued growth in construction this year, with measures including greater domestic content in public purchases, public-private participation in infrastructure projects and a target of $100bn in private infrastructure investment for 2025. These effects could be amplified by aggressive interest rate cuts from the central bank. Mining contracted by 2.7pc in March, returning to negative territory after a slight 0.1pc uptick in February. Oil and gas output also contracted 2.7pc after rising 1.0pc the month before, while non-oil mining contracted 4.3pc in March after a 0.6pc increase in February. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Naphtha no longer competitive feedstock: Braskem

12/05/25

Naphtha no longer competitive feedstock: Braskem

Sao Paulo, 12 May (Argus) — Brazil-based petrochemical producer Braskem is pursuing a strategic shift in polymers production by favoring natural gas liquid (NGL) feedstocks and moving away from naphtha. Naphtha is no longer a competitive feedstock in the petrochemical sector, driving the need for greater flexibility in raw material sourcing, chief executive Roberto Ramos said Monday on the company's first-quarter earnings call. The transition to lighter feedstocks is part of a broader initiative to enhance efficiency, reduce costs, and improve competitiveness amid evolving global petrochemical dynamics, Ramos said. The company's plan focuses on increasing the use of ethane and propane as primary feedstocks in Mexico and Brazil. In Mexico, Braskem has inaugurated an ethane import terminal, which will provide a stable supply to its operations. The facility has the capacity to store 80,000 b/d of ethane, while the polyethylene (PE) plant processes 66,000 b/d. This surplus storage has prompted considerations for a new PE unit in Mexico to maximize the available feedstock. In Brazil, Braskem aims to reduce reliance on naphtha-based PE production by integrating more natural gas-derived inputs. The company is evaluating projects to utilize feedstocks sourced from shale gas extracted in Argentina's Vaca Muerta formation. The petrochemical complex in Rio Grande do Sul, which operates with a mixture of naphtha and natural gas, is among the facilities targeted for increased gas utilization. Braskem's Rio de Janeiro facility is also undergoing expansion of its gas-based assets, adding two new furnaces that crack ethane and propane to increase capacity to 700,000 t/yr. This increased production is anticipated to lower unit production costs and improve profitability. The move to gas-based production is expected to optimize operations and align Braskem's facilities with cost-effective supply chains, Ramos said. The shift comes as global trade dynamics continue to influence raw material availability. While US-China trade agreements have temporarily eased tariff pressures, Braskem is trying to position itself to navigate long-term supply chain uncertainties by diversifying its production inputs. Ramos has also indicated potential investments in ethanol dehydration technology, which would allow select facilities to convert ethanol into ethylene, further supporting PE production with an alternative renewable feedstock. Production and sales Braskem said its first-quarter domestic resin sales fell by 4pc from the same period in 2024, but sales were little changed from the prior quarter. Domestic resin sales totalled 807,000 metric tonnes (t) in the first quarter, down from 839,000t a year earlier. Resin sales volumes remained in line with the fourth quarter last year, but the company highlighted a quarter-on-quarter increase in PE and polypropylene (PP) sales volumes of 2pc and 3pc, respectively, offset by a 16pc reduction in PVC sales. In Mexico, Braskem Idesa's PE sales fell by 11pc from the same period in 2024 and by 5pc quarter-on-quarter, as the company is looking to manage inventory ahead of a planned maintenance shutdown in the second quarter. The plant utilization rate reached 79pc, rising from the fourth quarter on higher ethane availability through the Fast Track solution. But utilization fell by four percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to reduced supply of ethane from Mexico's Pemex. Braskem posted a first-quarter profit of $114mn, rebounding from a loss of $273mn a year earlier and a loss of $967mn in the fourth quarter last year. By Fred Fernandes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU, UK diesel imports from Mideast, India fall in April

12/05/25

EU, UK diesel imports from Mideast, India fall in April

London, 12 May (Argus) — Arrivals of diesel and other gasoil in the EU and UK edged lower in April, with high imports from Saudi Arabia's port of Yanbu not fully making up for lower supply from the Mideast Gulf and India. Data from Vortexa show total arrivals at 4.3mn t, lower by 3pc from March on a daily average basis and by 7pc on the year. The Mideast Gulf is the region that has supplied the most to the EU and UK so far this year, stepping up to fill a gap created by weak US arrivals. But market participants said the arbitrage from the Mideast Gulf was shut for most of April. Arrivals from the Mideast Gulf were around 1mn t, dropping by 24pc on a daily average basis from March but only marginally falling from April 2024. Exports from the region probably fell because of maintenance at the 400,000 b/d Rabigh refinery. Geopolitical tensions may have harmed transit through the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The EU and UK imported the largest amount from Saudi Arabia, at 1.3mn t or around 29pc of total arrivals. Around 68pc of Saudi Arabian arrivals, or about 780,000t, came from the Red Sea port of Yanbu, the largest amount from there since December 2020. Yanbu is just south of the Suez Canal, and market participants often treat it similarly to a Mediterranean port when calculating arbitrage economics. Arrivals from India dropped sharply in April, again probably driven by poor arbitrage economics. Arrivals fell by 45pc on the month on a daily average basis and by 33pc on the year, to 455,000t. Only five tankers arrived in the EU and UK from India, compared with 13 in April 2024. Reliance's 1.36mn b/d Jamnagar refinery conducted maintenance on a crude unit in April, and domestic demand reached an all-time high. Imports from the US, the EU's and UK's largest supplier in 2024, remained muted. Arrivals rose by 17pc on the month on a daily average basis to 562,000t, but were still only half the amount of April last year. Spain was the largest EU/UK importer, with 745,000t, the highest since May 2024. Imports may have risen because of maintenance at Repsol's 135,000 b/d Puertollano and 180,000 b/d Tarragona refineries . German arrivals were 493,000t, the highest since January 2023, up by 13pc on the year and more than double levels of March. Shell began to close its 147,000 b/d Wesseling refinery in March, and a turnaround took place at the Bayernoil consortium's 215,000 b/d Vohburg-Neustadt refinery. Demand stepped up, with households taking advantage of lower prices to stockpile product. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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