China on track for record share of Australian exports

Spanish Market: Coal, Coking coal, Metals, Natural gas
11/01/21

Australia is on track to be more dependent on China for its exports, according to latest trade data, despite the trade tensions that emerged last year between the two countries.

China was the destination for 33.5pc of Australia's exports during January-November 2020, above the previous record of 30pc in 2019. But the value of Australian exports totalled A$132.49bn ($90.32bn) during January-November compared with A$148.4bn in 2019, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

China imposed various trade sanctions on a group of Australian exports, including barley, beef, coal, copper, lobster, certain wood products and wine since Canberra earlier last year called for an independent inquiry into the origins of the Covid-19 coronavirus. Australia also banned Chinese telecommunications company Huawei from building 5G telecommunications networks. Australia in November said it was considering taking China to the World Trade Organisation over import tariffs on barley.

The higher dependency on Chinese buying of Australian exports largely reflects the increase in iron ore prices last year because of China's firmer than expected demand and supply problems from Brazil. China buys more than 80pc of Australia's iron ore exports.

The value of Australian iron ore exports was A$103.12bn during January-November, which already exceeded the previous record of A$96.18bn for all of 2019.

The combined value of iron ore, coal and oil and gas exports are on track to fall below the record of A$233bn in 2019 because of the fall in thermal, coking coal, LNG and oil prices for much of last year. Combined export receipts from iron ore, coal and oil and LNG were A$198bn during January-November.

By Kevin Morrison

Australian trade export receipts for November								(A$mn)
	Iron ore	Coal	LNG	Energy total	China	Japan	Asean	OECD

Nov '20	10,297	3,082	2,567	17,628	11,392	3,622	3,960	10,956
Oct '20	11,179	3,336	2,208	18,659	12,610	3,244	2,748	10,507
Nov '19	7,823	4,394	3,998	18,759	12,176	4,485	3,193	11,766
Jan-Nov '20	103,115	40,511	33,638	198,092	132,493	39,731	33,376	116,339
Jan-Nov '19	87,415	59,120	44,485	215,464	135,080	51,873	36,415	128,594
YTD %	18	-31	-24	-8	-2	-23	-8	-10
Source: ABS

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17/04/25

Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts

Mexico City, 17 April (Argus) — The Mexican finance executive association (IMEF) lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for a second consecutive month in its April survey, citing a rising risk of recession on US-Mexico trade tensions. In its April survey, growth expectations for 2025 fell to 0.2pc, down from 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. Nine of the 43 respondents projected negative growth — up from four in March, citing rising exposure to US tariffs that now affect "roughly half" of Mexico's exports. The group warned that the risk of recession will continue to rise until tariff negotiations are resolved, with the possibility of a US recession compounding the problem. As such, IMEF expects a contraction in the first quarter with high odds of continued negative growth in the second quarter — meeting one common definition of recession as two straight quarters of contraction. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Mexico's statistics agency Inegi will release its first estimate for first quarter GDP growth on April 30. "A recession is now very likely," said IMEF's director of economic studies Victor Herrera. "Some sectors, like construction, are already struggling — and it's just a matter of time before it spreads." The severity of the downturn will depend on how quickly trade tensions ease and whether the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement is successfully revised, Herrera added. But the outlook remains uncertain, with mixed signals this week — including a possible pause on auto tariffs and fresh warnings of new tariffs on key food exports like tomatoes. IMEF also trimmed its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.5pc from 1.6pc, citing persistent tariff uncertainty. Its 2025 formal job creation estimate dropped to 220,000 from 280,000 in March. The group slightly lowered its 2025 inflation forecast to 3.8pc from 3.9pc, noting current consumer price index should allow the central bank to continue the current rate cut cycle to lower its target interest rate to 8pc by year-end from 9pc. IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.90/$1, slightly stronger than the Ps21/$1 forecast in March. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India's ONGC wins 15 blocks in upstream oil, gas bid

17/04/25

India's ONGC wins 15 blocks in upstream oil, gas bid

Mumbai, 17 April (Argus) — Indian state-controlled upstream firm ONGC has won 15 of the 28 blocks offered for bidding in the ninth round under the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy's (HELP's) Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP). Three of these were with ONGC's joint venture with state-run Oil India, while another was in a consortium with BP and private-sector refiner Reliance Industries (RIL). This is the first time BP, RIL and ONGC have partnered and won a shallow-water block in the Saurashtra basin. ONGC has a 40pc stake in the consortium, with RIL and BP having 30pc each, a trading source said. RIL-BP had jointly won an ultra-deepwater block in the Krishna Godavari basin in the eighth round. Private-sector Vedanta, which had bid for all 28 oil and gas blocks, won seven blocks. Oil India won six blocks on its own and three in collaboration with ONGC. Private-sector firm Sun Petrochemicals, which had bid for seven blocks in this ninth round, did not secure any blocks. Interest from the private sector was relatively higher in this bidding round, but it remains mostly dominated by state-controlled firms. Foreign participation in the Indian exploration sector remains low. The ninth round saw 28 blocks auctioned(https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2524414) across an area of 136,596.45 km². India has awarded 144 exploration and production blocks comprising a total area of 242,055 km² in eight previous rounds. India in March passed the Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Amendment Bill 2024 , which aims to simplify regulations, attract investment, and enhance exploration and production capabilities. It also allows granting oil leases on stable terms, along with sharing of production facilities and infrastructure. It also scrapped the windfall tax on domestic crude oil production in December 2024. The ministry said it is working on new frameworks to address challenges related to the upstream sector. India imports around 89pc of its crude requirements, despite efforts to reduce its dependency on imports. Crude imports in January-February rose by over 1pc on the year to 5.01mn b/d, oil ministry data show. During the same period, its total crude production fell by over 1pc from a year earlier to 539,000 b/d. By Roshni Devi India OALP blocks ninth bidding round Basin Type Block Area (km²) Awardee Cauvery Basin Ultra-deepwater CY-UDWHP-2022/1 9,514.63 ONGC Cauvery Basin Ultra-deepwater CY-UDWHP-2022/2 9,844.72 ONGC Cauvery Basin Ultra-deepwater CY-UDWHP-2022/3 7,795.45 ONGC Cauvery Basin Ultra-deepwater CY-UDWHP-2023/1 5,330.49 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Shallow water GS-OSHP-2022/1 5,585.61 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Shallow water GS-OSHP-2022/2 5,453.96 ONGC - BPXA – RIL Saurashtra Basin Onland GS-ONHP-2023/1 2,939.56 Vedanta Saurashtra Basin Shallow water GS-OSHP-2023/1 ,5408.79 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Ultra-deepwater GS-UDWHP-2023/1 7,699.00 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Ultra-deepwater GS-UDWHP-2023/2 8,446.28 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Onland GS-ONHP-2023/2 2,977.28 Vedanta Saurashtra Basin Onland GS-ONHP-2023/3 2,793.08 Vedanta Cambay Basin Onland CB-ONHP-2022/2 7,13.92 ONGC- OIL Cambay Basin Shallow water CB-OSHP-2023/1 1,873.66 Vedanta Cambay Basin Onland CB-ONHP-2023/1 446 OIL Cambay Basin Onland CB-ONHP-2023/2 636 Vedanta Cambay Basin Onland CB-ONHP-2023/3 416 ONGC Cambay Basin Shallow water CB-OSHP-2023/2 477 Vedanta Mahanadi Basin Ultra-deepwater MN-UDWHP-2023/1 9,466.85 ONGC - OIL Mahanadi Basin Ultra-deepwater MN-UDWHP-2023/2 9,425.84 OIL Mahanadi Basin Ultra-deepwater MN-UDWHP-2023/3 9,831.48 OIL Krishna-Godavari Basin Ultra-deepwater KG-UDWHP-2023/1 9,495.16 OIL Krishna-Godavari Basin Ultra-deepwater KG-UDWHP-2023/2 9,223.22 OIL Mumbai Offshore Shallow water MB-OSHP-2023/1 2,935.19 ONGC Mumbai Offshore Shallow water MB-OSHP-2023/2 1,749.74 Vedanta Assam Shelf Basin Onland AS-ONHP-2022/2 784 ONGC - OIL Assam Shelf Basin Onland AS-ONHP-2022/3 2,168.09 OIL Kutch Basin Shallow water GK-OSHP_x0002_2023/1 3,164.61 ONGC Source: Oil ministry Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Taiwan poised to import more LNG this summer

17/04/25

Taiwan poised to import more LNG this summer

Singapore, 17 April (Argus) — Taiwan is likely to import more LNG to meet growing demand for gas-fired power generation, as its third LNG import terminal comes on line in time for summer. Taiwan's 3mn t/yr Guantang import terminal in Taoyuan, located in the northwest of the country, has successfully received its first delivery of 63,780t of LNG from the 145,000m³ Methane Rita Andrea on 7 April, according to vessel tracker Kpler. This third importing terminal will increase Taiwan's total import capacity to 19.5mn t/yr, alleviating high utilisation at existing import terminals . Pivoting to gas Taiwan's CPC will require at least one more cargo each month for the new 913MW Datan unit 7 power plant, which is due to come on line in June. The third LNG import terminal would ease the importing process. Assuming a 55pc efficiency rate, the power plant is estimated to burn about 75,260 t/month (166,780 m³/month) of LNG, equivalent to about one standard-sized cargo. Gas-fired power generation accounted for an average of about 41pc of Taiwan's total power generation over 2023-24. Gas fired-power generation reached 29.6TWh for the second quarter of 2024, which was 10pc higher from 26.9TWh over the same quarter in 2023. Taipower planned to install up to 14 gas-fired power plants over 2025-30, according to the firm's 2024 power development plan which was last updated on 9 August 2024 (see table) . Taiwan has a total of 21,196MW of gas-fired power capacity fuelled on LNG as of February 2025. CPC has issued nine tenders seeking spot deliveries over the first quarter of 2025, four more than a year earlier. This latest increase in importing capacity will be crucial to support the increased reliance on gas-fired power generation, especially after Taiwan phases out its last nuclear power facility in July. A gradual nuclear phase-out Nuclear output has also been on a downward trajectory since 2023 and only made up 1pc of Taiwan's overall power mix over the last quarter of 2024. The 951MW Maanshan nuclear unit 2 is planned for decommissioning and will be taken fully off line on 17 May . The Maanshan unit 1 was [shut down last July](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2581822). Taiwan's annual LNG imports rose by 2pc on the year in 2023, and increased by 5pc on the year in 2024. Taiwan imported a total of 21.5mn t of LNG in 2024, of which 10pc of the volumes were from the US. By Naomi Ong Taipower gas-fired additions Year Units 2025 913MW Tatan unit 7 1,300MW Taichung unit 1 1,300MW Hsinta unit 1 1,300MW Hsinta unit 2 2026 1,300 Taichung unit 2 1,300MW Hsinta unit 3 2028 650MW Talin unit 1 650MW Talin unit 2 650MW Tunghsiao unit 4 650MW Tunghsiao unit 5 2029 650MW Tunghsiao unit 6 650MW Tunghsiao unit 7 2030 1,300MW Hsiehho unit 1 650MW Tunghsiao unit 8 Taipower Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

AD Ports Group pioneers LNG bunkering at Khalifa Port

17/04/25

AD Ports Group pioneers LNG bunkering at Khalifa Port

Dubai, 17 April (Argus) — Abu Dhabi's AD Ports Group has conducted its first ship-to-ship (STS) LNG bunkering operation at Khalifa Port. The operation, executed with marine fuels provider Monjasa, involved the container vessel MSC Thais , berthed at Abu Dhabi Terminals, receiving LNG from the dedicated bunker vessel Green Zeebrugge during a simultaneous cargo transfer. "By ensuring reliable access to low-carbon fuels like LNG, we are enabling shipowners to meet their sustainability goals while aligning with global environmental objectives," said Abu Dhabi Maritime chief executive Saif Al Mheiri. LNG offers lower greenhouse gas emissions, sulphur oxide, nitrogen oxide, and particulate matter than conventional marine fuels. AD Ports Group and Monjasa plan to expand LNG bunkering services across Abu Dhabi's commercial ports, including Zayed Port's cruise liners. Monjasa facilitated the first delivery of LNG bunker fuel in Dubai earlier this year. The firm brought the 5,100m³ Green Zeebrugge in 2024 from northwest Europe to be stationed in the UAE. By Elshan Aliyev Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cyclones disrupt BHP iron ore sales in January-March

17/04/25

Cyclones disrupt BHP iron ore sales in January-March

Sydney, 17 April (Argus) — Australian mineral producer BHP's iron ore sales fell by 3.9pc on the year in January-March, despite total production remaining largely flat, because of months of severe weather challenges in Australia. BHP iron ore output for the 2025 financial year will sit in the lower end of its 255mn-265.5mn t guidance , it said in February. BHP had expected to operate in the upper end of its guidance range before multiple cyclones hit Western Australia (WA) in January-February. The decline in BHP's production guidance comes entirely from its WA operations. The company increased its Brazilian Samarco iron ore production guidance closer to the upper end of its 5mn-5.5mn t range. BHP produced 1.6mn t of ore at Samarco in January-March, up by 39pc on the year. The company — which runs Samarco as a joint venture with Brazilian metal firm Vale — re-opened a concentration plant at the mine in December 2024. Total production at Samarco will reach 16mn t/yr by the end of the 2025 financial year, the company said on 17 April. But production declines at the company's WA mines were limited in January-March, decreasing by just 0.3pc on the year. This was partly because of the ramp up of production at BHP's South Flank mine in July-September 2024 . BHP's Samarco mine also buoyed its total iron ore sales in January-March. Exports from the site rose by 15pc on the year, partially offsetting a 4.3pc decline in shipments from the company's larger WA operations. Other producers also faced weather disruptions over January-March. Australian producer Mineral Resources revised down its 2025 iron ore production guidance by up to 2.4mn t after Cyclone Sean. Rio Tinto also lost 13mn t of shipments and will likely only reach the lower end of its production guidance range of 323mn-338mn t in 2025. By Avinash Govind BHP iron ore quarterly results Jan-Mar '25 Oct-Dec '24 Jan-March '24 q-o-q % ± y-o-y % ± Proudction (mn t) Western Australia 60.1 64.8 60.3 -7.1 -0.3 Samarco 1.6 1.5 1.2 11.1 39.3 Total 61.8 66.2 61.5 -6.7 0.5 Sales (mn t) Western Australia 59.2 64.3 61.9 -7.9 -4.3 Samarco 1.4 1.5 1.3 -4.2 14.9 Total 60.7 65.8 63.1 -7.9 -3.9 Source: BHP Argus' iron ore fines 62pc Fe price ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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