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Full impact of Russian grain duties to come next season

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture
  • 15/02/21

The full effect of export duties on Russian grains is unlikely to be felt until the next marketing year, when shipments out of the country could fall significantly, experts told participants of an online conference in Moscow last week.

The Russian government's export duties for the grains sector were launched today, starting with a €25/t ($30.33/t) levy on wheat shipments, which will be raised to €50/t from 1 March. Similar duties for corn and barley exports are due to follow from mid-March.

But these fixed duties are set to be replaced by floating tariffs from 2 June and into the new 2021-22 marketing year from July. And with the launch of the floating duties coinciding with tighter regulatory measures on grain quality, it is then that the full impact of the new levies for exports are likely to be properly felt by the market, guests were told at the conference held by Russia's Institute for Agricultural Market Studies.

The measures will have a restrictive impact not only on Russia's export potential, but also the development of the country's agricultural sector overall, with small and medium-sized farmers likely to struggle the most with the new compliance procedures for grain quality checks, the general director of Agrozan Commodites, Sabina Sodikova, said.

The imminent export duties will begin to disincentivise production of the crops most affected by the measures from next season, Russian Grain Union vice-president Alexander Korbut said. This could lead to a long-term reduction in wheat planted area particularly and have a knock-on effect on other Russian markets as producers' profit margins narrow, he said.

Russia is expected to export about 39mn t of wheat during the continuing 2020-21 marketing year to 30 June, according to the latest projections from the US Department of Agriculture, up from 34.5mn in 2019-20 and 35.9mn in 2018-19. This comes after the country's production this season is estimated to have turned out its second-highest level on record, at 85.3mn t.


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13/03/25

Açúcar: Mudança tributária abre espaço diplomático

Açúcar: Mudança tributária abre espaço diplomático

Sao Paulo, 13 March (Argus) — A isenção das importações de açúcar no Brasil é avaliada como uma tentativa de demonstrar aos Estados Unidos disposição em realizar acordos comerciais com o país, após o governo norte-americano sinalizar a possibilidade de aumentar as tarifas sobre alguns produtos brasileiros . Ao retirar as tarifas sobre o açúcar, o Brasil abre espaço para negociar a possibilidade de manutenção das tarifas de etanol, de acordo com Renato Cunha, presidente da Associação dos Produtores de Açúcar, Etanol e Bioenergia das regiões Norte e Nordeste (NovaBio). Etanol e açúcar são mercados correlatos no Brasil e as negociações dos dois costumam estar interligadas. Ambos são derivados da cana-de-açúcar e a produção de um produto ocorre em detrimento do outro. O governo brasileiro anunciou em 6 de março a eliminação dos impostos para importações de itens considerados essenciais, como o açúcar, milho, azeite, café e óleo de soja, com o intuito de reduzir os preços dos alimentos, em meio à aceleração da inflação. No caso do açúcar, o efeito sobre a inflação tende a ser limitado. O Brasil – maior produtor e exportador mundial de açúcar – é autossuficiente na produção do adoçante e as importações representam volumes mínimos no mercado. O Brasil exportou cerca de 33,5 milhões de t em 2024, alta de 23,8pc em comparação com 2023, a partir de uma produção de 42,4 milhões de t na safra 2023-24, de acordo com a Unica. Vantagens competitivas do açúcar brasileiro Mesmo que a isenção de tarifas para importar açúcar – que antes eram de até 14pc – facilite a abertura de novos mercados e crie eventuais oportunidades para os consumidores brasileiros, o produto nacional ainda é mais barato, pelos custos de produção mais baixos em relação a outros países. Os custos para produzir açúcar no Brasil são de aproximadamente 15¢/lb (equivalente a R$1,92/kg), enquanto na Tailândia – segundo maior exportador de açúcar – eles estão próximos de 21,5¢/lb, segundo participantes de mercado. Na Índia e Austrália, terceiro e quarto maiores exportadores, os custos são de aproximadamente 22,4¢/lb e 18,3¢/lb, respectivamente. Para que haja uma redução efetiva dos preços do açúcar, é necessária uma revisão nos custos de toda a cadeia produtiva até as gôndolas do mercado, disse José Guilherme Nogueira, presidente da Organização de Associações de Produtores de Cana do Brasil (Orplana). Para Nogueira, é importante se atentar a fatores além da produção, como custos de frete e seguro, áreas passíveis de atuação do governo. Como a produção é suficiente para o consumo nacional e há um grande volume excedente, o açúcar brasileiro acaba sendo majoritariamente exportado, sem o mercado externo representar efetivamente uma concorrência para o consumidor brasileiro. O preço do açúcar cristal branco registrou uma média de R$155,3/ saca de 50kg em janeiro - ou $24,9/sc na paridade de exportação, com a cotação média do dólar norte-americano a R$6,02 – segundo o indicador do Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada (CEPEA/Esalq). Em janeiro de 2024, os preços no mercado nacional estavam R$145,04/sc, em média, e $29,5/sc, considerando uma taxa cambial média de R$4,91. Isso mostra que mesmo com o dólar mais alto neste ano, o mercado doméstico de açúcar segue remunerando mais que o mercado externo, em comparação com o mesmo período no ano passado. Por Maria Albuquerque Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.

Australia’s cattle herd to remain at 30mn head in 2025


13/03/25
13/03/25

Australia’s cattle herd to remain at 30mn head in 2025

Sydney, 13 March (Argus) — Australia's cattle herd is expected to remain broadly unchanged from the previous year in June, while record beef production is forecast in the 2025 calendar year, according to Meat and Livestock Australia projections. The cattle herd is expected to shrink slightly to 30.1mn head in June 2025 from 30.6mn head in June 2024, partly because of high slaughter rates and cattle turn off — finished cattle sent for processing or export — in southern states. MLA estimates the national herd will continue to drop from its June 2023 size, and further declines are expected in the coming years as turn off increases to manage carrying capacity, which is the stock level that can be supported by pastures over time. The June 2027 herd is pegged at 28.8mn head, 6pc below June 2023. Beef production is set to reach a new record high of 2.6mn t carcass weight equivalent (cwe) in the 2025 calendar year, breaking the previous record in 2024, and supported by high slaughter rates. Cattle slaughter is forecast to rise by 3pc on the year to 8.5mn head in 2025. Live exports are forecast to rise to 803,000 head in 2025, as the late onset of the northern wet season supported cattle supply . Dryer seasonal conditions in southern states are expected to support cattle turn off into June. A dry outlook for March-May 2025 could lift the number of cattle sent to live export, feedlots, or for processing in central Queensland, despite a mostly favourable 2024-25 northern wet season so far. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) forecast the chance of rainfall exceeding the median rainfall in March-May to be less than half for most of central and northern Queensland, although more recent modelling is slightly more favourable. Further, much of Queensland's grazing areas received at least 25mm in the week to 12 March, according to BoM data. By Edward Dunlop Australia Cattle Industry forecasts unit 2025 2024 y-o-y ± y-o-y % Herd Size (30 June) 000 head 30,145 30,561 -416 -1 Cattle slaughter 000 head 8,535 8,304 231 3 Beef production '000t cwt 2,624 2,571 53 2 Live exports 000 head 803 747 56 7 Beef exports '000t cwe 2,035 1,972 63 3 - MLA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil refinery to produce fuel from eucalypt


11/03/25
11/03/25

Brazil refinery to produce fuel from eucalypt

Sao Paulo, 11 March (Argus) — Petrobras-controlled Riograndense refinery successfully conclude tests to produce fuels from eucalyptus biomass in Brazil's southern Rio Grande do Sul state. The refinery used a bio-oil from eucalyptus biomass and converted it in fractions of fuel gas, LPG, components to produce gasoline and marine fuel with renewable content and others. The bio-oil came from industrial company Vallourec's forest unit in southeastern Minas Gerais state. The test reveals the possibility of using wood and other forestry residues as feedstocks for products usually coming from a fossil origin, said Petrobras's technology, engineer and innovation director Renata Baruzzi. Petrobras intends to transform Riograndense refinery into the first oil plant to produce 100pc renewable fuels in the world, according to Petrobras' chief executive Magda Chambriard. The efforts are part of Petrobras' BioRefino program, which will invest almost $1.5bn to generate sustainable fuels as of 2029. Riograndense refinery is also controlled by Brazilian companies Ultra Group and Braskem petrochemical. By Maria Albuquerque Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India's Feb vegoil imports at lowest since May 2020


11/03/25
11/03/25

India's Feb vegoil imports at lowest since May 2020

Kyiv, 11 March (Argus) — India's vegetable oil imports in February fell to their lowest monthly volume imported since May 2020, according to the latest data from the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEAI). Imports in February declined to 899,565t, from 1.03mn t in January and 965,852t a year earlier. Total stocks as of 1 March amounted to 1.87mn t, declining by 302,000t from 2.18mn t on 1 February, because of lower imports. Higher premiums for palm oil have reduced both imports and consumption of the product in recent months, leading to a sharp increase in the use of of soybean oil and sunflower oil, SEAI said. The combined share of sunflower oil (SFO) and soybean oil (SBO) in India's imports increased to 57pc in the 2024-25 marketing year (November-October) from 34pc a year earlier, while palm oil's share decreased to 43pc from 66pc a year ago. About 284,000t of SBO was received at Indian ports in February and 1.56mn t in November-February, more than double the 664,000t volume imported in the same four-month period a year earlier. India's SFO purchases totalled about 228,000t in February, down from nearly 288,000t in January, while total SFO imports in the first four months of the 2024-25 marketing year reached 1.12mn t, up from about 907,000t a year earlier. Meanwhile, imports of palm oil — comprising crude and refined products — rebounded slightly to about 374,000t in February, compared with just 257,000t imported in January and about 489,000t a year earlier. Overall palm oil imports in the first four months of the 2024-25 season reached 1.99mn t, sharply down from 3.04mn t a year earlier. India imported 4.8mn t of vegetable oils in November-February, up by 4pc from the 4.64mn t imported in the same period last season. By Kristin Yavorska Indian vegetable oil imports t Palm oil (crude and refined) Soybean oil Sunflower oil Non-edible oils Total Nov-24 841,993 407,648 340,660 37,341 1,627,642 Dec-24 500,175 420,651 264,836 45,764 1,231,426 Jan-25 275,241 444,026 288,284 41,614 1,049,165 Feb-25 373,549 283,737 228,275 14,004 899,565 Total Nov 2024-Oct-25 1,990,958 1,556,062 1,122,055 138,723 4,807,798 Total Nov 2023-Oct-24 9,015,573 3,440,803 3,506,194 272,244 16,234,814 — SEAI Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's GDP growth accelerates to 3.4pc in 2024


07/03/25
07/03/25

Brazil's GDP growth accelerates to 3.4pc in 2024

Sao Paulo, 7 March (Argus) — Brazil's economic growth accelerated to an annual 3.4pc last year, the fastest growth since 2021, as gains in the services and industry sectors offset contractions in the agriculture sector, according to government statistics agency IBGE. Growth accelerated from 3.2pc in 2023 and 3pc the prior year. Growth was at 4.8pc in 2021 as the economy recovered from the Covid-19 induced contraction of 3.3pc in 2020. Agriculture contracted by 3.2pc in 2024 after a 15.1pc gain the year prior. The sector's weak performance came as Brazil faced extreme climate events last year that damaged crops , IBGE said. Corn and soybean output fell by 4.6pc and 12.5pc, respectively, according to IBGE. The industrial sector grew by 3.3pc last year after a 1.6pc gain in 2023. Manufacturing industries rose by 3.8pc, driven by a higher output of vehicles, transport equipment, machinery and electric equipment, according to IBGE. Electricity and gas, water and sewage management increased by 3.6pc in 2024 but still decelerated from a 6.5pc gain a year earlier. Higher temperatures throughout 2024 drove the increase, IBGE said. On the other hand, the climate was unfavorable for power generation. The oil, natural gas and mining industry grew by 0.5pc in 2024 from a year earlier. Gross fixed capital formation — which measures how much companies increased their capital goods — rose by 7.3pc from a 3pc contraction in 2023, led by higher domestic output and capital goods imports. Exports rose by 2.9pc, while imports rose by 14.7pc last year. Investment grew by 17pc. Household consumption increased by 4.8pc from a year prior, driven by a 6.6pc unemployment rate — the lowest registered since IBGE started its historic record in 2012 — federal social aid programs and increased lending. Government spending rose by 1.9pc in 2024 from a year earlier. Quarterly GDP Brazil's GDP growth slowed to an annual 3.6pc in the fourth quarter from 4pc in the third quarter, with several sectors contracting, according to IBGE. Agriculture contracted by an annual 1.5pc in the fourth quarter, with 2.9pc and 0.9pc contractions in the wheat and sugarcane crops, respectively, IBGE said. But the industrial sector grew by an annual 2.5pc in the quarter. Manufacturing posted 5.3pc growth, led by the steel sector and higher output of machinery, equipment, vehicles and chemicals. The services sector grew by 3.4pc. The oil, natural gas and mining industry contracted by 3.6pc from a year earlier thanks to a decrease in oil, gas and iron output, IBGE said. Electricity and gas, water, and sewage management fell by an annual 3.5pc, on lower power consumption as power rates became more expensive amid a drought that struck the country in mid-2024. Household consumption grew by an annual 3.7pc, while government spending grew by 1.2pc in the fourth quarter. Gross fixed capital formation increased by an annual 9.4pc in the fourth quarter, according to IBGE. Exports fell by 0.7pc, while imports, which subtract from growth, rose by 16pc. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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