Eurozone manufacturing booms, brings price inflation

Spanish Market: Chemicals, Fertilizers, LPG, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
01/04/21

The eurozone's manufacturing sector expanded at a record rate in March, but supply-chain delays drove the sharpest rise in input costs for 10 years.

The IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reading was 62.5 last month, up from 57.9 in February and the greatest month-on-month improvement in nearly 24 years. All countries in the survey recorded readings above the level of 50 that indicates expansion, with all-time highs in Germany and the Netherlands and more than 20-year peaks in Italy and France.

Manufacturers enjoyed record rises in output and new orders in March, and were able to raise their average prices by the most since April 2011 as supply chains were strained by shortages and logistical challenges. This will probably continue into April and may be exacerbated by delays arising from the Suez Canal blockage, IHS Markit said.

Its chief economist Chris Williamson said industry expectations of growth in the year ahead are also running at record highs, leading to investment and restocking as firms prepare for the possibility of still stronger post-pandemic demand.

By Ben Winkley

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25/11/24

Uruguay's left-wing candidate wins presidency

Montevideo, 25 November (Argus) — The left-wing opposition Frente Amplio will return to power in Uruguay after winning a hard-fought run-off election on 24 November. Yamandu Orsi, former mayor of the Canalones department, was elected president with close to 51pc of valid votes. He defeated Alvaro Delgado, of the ruling Partido Nacional. The Frente will control the senate, but will have a minority in the lower chamber. It last governed from 2015-2020. Orsi will take office on 1 March in one of Latin America's most stable economies, with the World Bank forecasting growth at 3.2pc for this year, much higher than the 1.9pc regional average. He will also inherit a country that has been making strides to implement a second energy transition geared toward continued decarbonization and new technologies, such as SAF and low-carbon hydrogen. He will also have to decide on future oil and natural gas exploration. Uruguay does not produce oil or gas, but has hopes that its offshore mimics that of Nambia, because of similar geology. TotalEnergies has made a major find there. The Frente's government plan states that it "will deepen the energy transition, focusing on the use of renewable energy, and decarbonization of the economy and transportation … gradually regulating so that public and cargo transportation can operate with hydrogen." On to hydrogen Uruguay is already the regional leader with renewable energy, with renewables covering 100pc of power demand on 24 November, according to the state-run power company, UTE. Wind accounted for 49pc, hydro 35pc, biomass 10pc and solar 6pc. Orsi will need to make decisions regarding high-profile projects for low-carbon hydrogen, as well as a push by the state-run Ancap to get private companies to ramp up oil and gas exploration on seven offshore blocks. The industry, energy and mining ministry lists four planned low-carbon hydrogen projects, including one between Chile's HIF and Ancap subsidiary Alur that would have a 1GW electrolyzer. Germany's Enertrag is working on an e-methanol project with a 150MW electrolyzer, while two Uruguayan groups are working on small projects with 2MW and 5MW electrolyzers, respectively. The Orsi government will also need to decide if it continues with Ancap's planned bidding process for four offshore blocks, each between 600-800km² (232-309 mi²), to generate up to 3.2GW of wind power to produce 200,000 t/yr of green hydrogen on floating platforms. The Frente has been noncommittal about the future of seven offshore oil and gas blocks, including three held by Shell, two by the UK's Challenger — which recently farmed in Chevron — and one each by Argentina's state-owned YPF and US-based APA Corporation. The Frente's government plan states that "a national dialogue will be called to analyze the impacts and alternatives to exploration and extraction of fossil fuels." By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Escalation in Ukraine fuels German oil product demand

25/11/24

Escalation in Ukraine fuels German oil product demand

Hamburg, 25 November (Argus) — Consumers in Germany stocked up on middle distillates in the past week because of escalations in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Sales of heating oil and diesel in Germany ramped up rapidly on 21 November after Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into Ukraine. This reignited concerns among German traders and consumers about the possible effects on availability and pricing of oil products in Europe. Traded volumes of heating oil reported to Argus went up by 60pc day-on-day on 21 November, while diesel volumes more than doubled as traders and consumers sought to stock up, even as prices rose. Private heating oil tanks have held their levels throughout November having peaked at just above 62pc at the beginning of the month, two percentage points higher than last year's peak. Industrial diesel tanks dropped below 46pc on 10 November, the lowest in at least four years, although they have since begun to recover slightly. Diesel imports went up again in November even though imports are largely unprofitable because of high domestic refinery output and demand that is generally low. Low water levels on the Rhine river make imports by barge even less profitable. Barges that have to pass the Kaub bottleneck on their way to destinations along the Upper Rhine can only carry up to 80pc of capacity after water levels fell again at the weekend. By Natalie Müller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ risks industry pushback

25/11/24

Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ risks industry pushback

New York, 25 November (Argus) — The biggest obstacle standing in the way of president-elect Donald Trump's campaign pledge to unleash the full force of the nation's oil potential could end up being some of his biggest cheerleaders in the industry. Top energy executives are broadly supportive of Trump's plans to slash red tape and adopt pro-fossil fuel policies, such as opening up more federal land to drilling and speeding up the permitting process for oil and gas projects. But his plea for producers to pump flat-out in order to help bring down energy costs might quickly bump up against reality. The industry is sitting tight against an uncertain macro-economic backdrop, with crude prices on the back foot and a global oil market that is forecast to be in surplus next year. Shale bosses that learnt the hard way the lessons of prior boom-and-bust cycles are in no hurry to repeat the mistakes of the past. "It's kind of hard to look at a world that has 4mn-6mn b/d of surplus capacity on the sidelines and try to think we can grow effectively into that," US independent Diamondback Energy chief executive Travis Stice says. For the time being, shareholders are in the driving seat and generating cash flow remains the rallying cry. "We're going to just stay conservative and let volume be the output of cash flow generation," Stice says, summing up the mood of many of his peers. As a result, Trump might have his work cut out for him trying to persuade US producers to open up the floodgates. Measures such as rolling back environmental regulations will only help at the margin. One difference from Trump's first term is that the industry is emerging from a frantic round of consolidation that has resulted in ownership of vast tracts of the shale patch falling into the hands of fewer but larger public operators, for whom capital discipline is sacrosanct. Last year's 1mn b/d boost to overall US crude production took market watchers by surprise, but the rate of growth is slowing even as output continues to hit new record highs. ExxonMobil and Chevron are deploying their vast scale and technology prowess to ramp up output from the Permian basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, but the rest of the industry is playing it steady. Cycle path For the most part, public companies were hesitant to set out their stalls for 2025 during recent third-quarter earnings calls. Those that have outlined tentative plans indicate a desire to maintain the status quo, leading to expectations for little or minimal growth. "Nearly every company cited continued improvements in cycle times that are allowing for more capital-efficient programmes," bank Raymond James analyst John Freeman says. "Efficiency gains show no signs yet of ending." US independent EOG Resources forecasts another year of slower US liquids growth on the back of a lower rig count and dwindling inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells. "The rig count really hasn't moved in just about a year now," chief executive Ezra Yacob says. "That's really the biggest thing that's informing our expectation for slightly less growth year over year in the US." In the immediate future, weaker oil prices might translate into slower growth for the Permian, delaying the inevitable peak in overall US crude production, producer Occidental Petroleum chief executive Vicki Hollub says. But the top-performing US basin will continue to lead the way further out while other basins lose their edge. In a fast-maturing shale sector where the priority is to lower costs and maximise returns, that suggests a flat production growth profile going forward. "We see no change to the intermediate-term drilling path for oil set by the fundamentals," bank Jefferies analyst Lloyd Byrne says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Clean NH3 integration needs CoC methods: Hinicio

25/11/24

Clean NH3 integration needs CoC methods: Hinicio

London, 25 November (Argus) — Some ammonia producers are implementing their own chain of custody (CoC) approaches in order to incorporate upcoming reduced carbon tonnes into existing ammonia supply chains, ahead of unified regulation, certification or wide-scale clean ammonia availability. But approaches will vary, depending on whether producers are targeting regulatory or voluntary markets, Belgian-headquartered consulting firm Hinicio told Argus ahead of the Clean Ammonia Europe Conference in Rotterdam this month. Hinicio is consulting on three different ammonia certification schemes currently under development. The schemes are being developed in partnership with Fertilizers Europe, the Fertilizer Institute in the US and the Ammonia Energy Association, which is developing a global scheme. The schemes have a mix of both mass balance or book and claim CoC methods, as producers and buyers seek to optimise on cost and carbon intensity (CI) when clean ammonia tonnes become available. Clean ammonia includes renewable ammonia produced with electrolysis and renewable electricity, or ammonia produced with a natural gas feedstock that uses carbon capture and storage (CCS) to reduce carbon emissions. The mass balance approach is well established in other values chains and has been set forth by the EU as the regulatory standard in the Renewable Energy Directive, FuelEU Maritime and the Gas Directive. And the CoC method has already been adopted by ammonia producers such as Yara and OCI. In a mass balance approach, the ratio of sustainable material incorporated into the value chain is tracked and reflected in the products produced and sold to customers. Physical trade flow is accounted for and a defined time (reconciliation) period is assigned. "When talking about chain of custody, the European regulation really dictates to use mass balance for everything you want to call RFNBO or low-carbon in Europe, or for anything that you want to bring to Europe," Hinicio manager Thomas Winkel said. But a ‘book-and-claim' system grants significantly more flexibility for economic operators that are looking to trade in voluntary markets — where companies buying reduced carbon ammonia are looking to reduce scope 3 emissions or EU ETS obligations. Book and claim allows for physical flow of a product to be completely decoupled from attributes like CI. Characteristics are ‘booked' into a central registry to be ‘claimed' by consumers, without a connection to the physical material, like renewable electricity certificates. "The voluntary market is going towards a combination of mass balance and book and claim," Winkel said. Elements of book and claim can be employed if required, within geographic or other constrictions. But Europe's stance on CoC could force companies to employ mass balancing. "I think many players around the world are looking at Europe as their main export market and they are starting to understand their criteria well," Winkel said. Europe currently accounts for around one-fifth of global ammonia imports, or around 4mn-5mn t/yr, according to Argus line-up data. And at least a quarter of the 40-plus offtake agreements Argus is tracking from clean ammonia projects are likely to supply the European market. Renewable ammonia projects in India and Canada have received pre-certification of RFNBO compliance from certification body Certifhy, with European offtakers already lined up. Under currently announced agreements alone, at least 500,000t of renewable ammonia will be shipping to Europe from 2027, pending project delivery, with the potential for a substantial scale-up in volume as the decade draws to a close. That is excluding large-scale ammonia projects with CCS that are scheduled for start-up in the US in 2025-26 and are also eyeing the European market for export opportunities. "Mass balance is the standard — the schemes that are being developed that are for voluntary purposes allow a bit more flexibility otherwise," Winkle said. For most jurisdictions, the regulatory playbook is still being written. Australia, Japan, South Korea, the US and the UK are still developing regulations surrounding low-carbon fuels. But in the meantime, fledgling supply agreements for voluntary markets may opt for book and claim where possible. But regulatory markets in Europe have declared mass balance as the standard. The development of regulatory and certification schemes in other regions will determine global standards moving forward. By Lizzy Lancaster Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US’ Peabody to buy Anglo’s Australian met coal assets

25/11/24

US’ Peabody to buy Anglo’s Australian met coal assets

Singapore, 25 November (Argus) — US coal producer Peabody Energy has agreed to acquire the bulk of coking coal assets that UK-South African mining firm Anglo American is seeking to divest as it exits the coal sector. Peabody plans to buy Anglo's majority stakes, at up to $3.8bn, in four metallurgical coal mines — Moranbah North, Grosvenor, Aquila and Capcoal — located in Australia's Bowen Basin, with the transaction expected to close by mid-2025 and subject to customary closing conditions, the producer said in a statement. With the acquisition of coal mines, Peabody's combined US-Australia production will rise from 10.6mn short tons/yr at present, to an estimate of 11.3mn st/yr (10.25mn t) by 2026, according to Peabody, strengthening the producer's position in the premium hard coking coal (PHCC) market. Moranbah North, Grosvenor and Aquila are PHCC mines, while Capcoal produces a combination of PHCC, pulverised coal injection (PCI) and other coal grades. At present, Australian low volatile hard coking coal, or tier-2 coking coal, accounts for 55pc of Peabody's 7.4mn st in coking coal sales, but the acquisition of new assets will bring PHCC's share up to 51pc and reduce its tier 2 coal to 24pc. Peabody also produces high volatile A coal in the US, accounting for 12pc of sales this year. In addition to the sale of assets to Peabody, Anglo has agreed to sell the Dawson mine in Central Queensland to Indonesian mining company PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (BUMA) for $455mn. Earlier this month, Anglo agreed the sale of its 33pc share of the [Jellinbah Group coking coal joint venture]https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2624965) to partner Australia-based Zashvin at $A1.6bn ($1.04bn). In May, Anglo announced plans to exit its coal, platinum, nickel and diamond businesses shortly after rejecting repeated takeover bids from Australian resources firm BHP. These deals come against a backdrop of a challenging price environment for steel making and subsequent weakness in coking coal prices, implying tight margins for coal producers. After reaching a high of $336.50/t fob Australia, the premium low volatile coking coal fell steadily throughout this year to reach $176.50/t in September, before recovering to remain in the $201-208/t range for most of November. In addition to a less than friendly investment climate for coal projects, Australia's Queensland state and New South Wales (NSW) state governments increased royalties on coal sales in 2023 and 2024 respectively, putting further strain on Australian miners already facing inflationary pressure from wages, equipment and fuel costs. Lower coking coal prices this year have translated to reduced royalty payments, but have yet to stem the tide of consolidations and asset sales as mining companies exit the sector. In August, Australia-based diversified metals producer South32 completed the sale of its Illawarra coking coal operations in NSW to an entity owned by Singapore-based Golden Energy and Resources (Gear) and Australia's M Resources for $1.65bn. In the US, rising mining costs and weak seaborne prices for most of this year led to the closure of smaller high-cost operations and mergers such as that of Arch Resources and Consol Energy to form Core Natural Resources , expected to close by the first quarter of 2025. In July, trading firm Glencore completed its acquisition of a majority stake in Elk Valley Resources, the coking coal division of Canadian mining firm Teck Resources, growing the former's thermal and coking coal production to 130mn t/yr. By Siew Hua Seah Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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