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EU eyes relaxing PAP ban amid tight oilseed feed supply

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture
  • 09/04/21

The EU is considering relaxing its ban on feeding processed animal protein (PAP) to domestic livestock amid tighter oilseed protein supply and surging international prices.

The PAP feed ban was introduced in May 2001 to safeguard EU livestock health after the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) disease depleted European cattle numbers. But support for the ban has been waning amid thinning alternative protein feed sources.

EU livestock farmers have relied more heavily on using protein feeds from crushed oilseeds including rapeseed, soybean and sunflower, but domestic supply has trailed consistently below demand, pulling buyers in the import market to cover the shortfall.

For the current 2020-21 marketing year ending on 30 June, EU oilseed production is estimated at 10.4pc below the five-year average of 30.65mn t, at 27.46mn t. This also trails the previous 2019-20 EU oilseed production of 28.37mn t.

Surging import prices have put added cost pressure on EU livestock farmers, with fob rapeseed prices from Ukraine and Canada — key suppliers for the EU — rising by $99/t and $293/t, respectively, since July, data from the EU show.

Fob Canada prices peaked at an all-time high of $672/t on 24 March, taking direction from both tighter domestic and international oilseed supply.

Tighter supply has pulled international vegetable oil prices to their highest in a decade, with the UN's Food Agriculture Organisation's (FAO) latest vegetable oil price index currently averaging at 148.5 points for 2021, its highest since 2011.

Against this backdrop, the move from the EU to consider relaxing its ban on PAP to livestock — which would include use of insect and poultry-pig PAP — could provide support to livestock farmers across the EU, by limiting reliance on thinning global oilseed protein supply and volatile import prices.

The relaxation is currently being proposed by the European Commission's Food Safety Committee but will not extend to meat and bone meals (MBM), which are still considered more harmful.

EU documents show industry experts believe that the proposals for relaxing PAP regulations have a good chance of gaining written approval when the committee next meets this month or in May.

Global oilseed prices $/t

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17/12/24

Alabama lock to remain closed until spring

Alabama lock to remain closed until spring

Houston, 17 December (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) has determined that the main chamber of the Wilson Lock on the Tennessee River near Florence, Alabama, will remain closed until spring 2025 as repairs continue. The Wilson Lock, the first lock on the Tennessee River, closed on 25 September after cracks in the lock gates on both the land and river sides were discovered. The main lock was closed to prevent further damage in the main chamber, although the auxiliary chamber was kept open for navigation. The Corps had been eyeing an earlier opening date for the main chamber since the start of November. Although months of repairs have taken place, the Corps resolved to keep the main chamber closed to preserve the lock and maintain personnel safety. The Corps, in partnership with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), is still assessing the root cause of the cracking. A second de-watering of the gate is scheduled for the first three months of 2025 to repairs. No official date has been set for the lock reopening, although some barge carriers have heard of a late April opening date. A regular 15 barge tow has endured 5-6 days of delay through the lock on average, according to carriers. The Corps' Lock Status Report on the Wilson Lock reported a nearly two-week delay for tows navigating through the lock. This has been costly for shippers by forcing them to pay delay fees. Wilson Lock is the second lock in Alabama to undergo a lengthy closure this year. Most lock and dams along the US river system are over 70 years old, likely resulting in more closures in the coming year. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Wheat farmers’ spot focus to squeeze traders


16/12/24
16/12/24

Viewpoint: Wheat farmers’ spot focus to squeeze traders

London, 16 December (Argus) — Farmers are likely to continue shifting their trading activity to the spot market in 2025, at the expense of forward sales, which is likely to pressure trading firms' margins because growers can largely afford to withhold product until bids reach a preferred level. For wheat specifically, currency volatility in major producing countries and more favourable prices for alternative crops could continue to disincentivise forward wheat selling into 2025. Higher on-farm storage capacity and, in the case of much of the Black Sea region, increasing government support for farmers, such as through more favourable loans for inputs, will facilitate this spot focus by alleviating pressure to offload stocks. Farmers' focus on prompt volumes is likely to be increasing volatility in the market — instead of steadier forward sales, farmers instead are more likely to come to the market simultaneously, resulting in more concentrated bursts of selling of spot supplies. Black Sea farmers eye traders' short positions Producers in the Black Sea — with the exception of Russia — have all shifted to prompt-only selling. Farmers keep their focus on the spot market, benefiting from their ability to hold back from selling until trading firms need product to execute previously agreed sales when vessels arrive at port. This can leave trading firms under pressure to source volumes at a farmer-set price, because the former often take further-out short positions in destination markets. This is especially true of volumes sold under buy tenders, where trading firms may have offered on an origination basis, leaving no room for competition pressure. This trend of prompt selling is reflected in Romania's Constanta port, which has a heavy line-up for November and a December line-up that is filling quickly, the latest port data show, while positions for January are so far empty. The traditionally more spot-focused market of Russia is set to continue limiting activity to the near term, deterred from forward markets by floating export duties, which change week-on-week, and a volatile rouble-dollar exchange rate. Sellers freeze out high-protein market Two major producers of high-protein milling wheat, Canada and Australia, have largely held back from farmer selling so far this year, with stock retention encouraging farmers in both countries to continue holding onto product in anticipation of higher prices. Canada and Australia typically compete in similar high-protein import markets, particularly in Asia. But both have so far resisted pressure from forecasts of higher output and exports for 2024-25, according to the Argus AgriMarket Outlook. Australian and Canadian are opting to hold onto wheat stocks in the hope of more favourable prices and the return of China to the global wheat import market. A slow start to Australia's wheat harvest campaign, and subsequent quality concerns as crops extend their exposure to recent wet weather, have deterred producers from forward selling, instead choosing to let go of stocks on an as-needed basis. And Australian farmers have been further disincentivised from letting go of wheat crops, opting instead to take advantage of attractive global chickpea prices, in combination with a forecast for Australia's chickpea output to more than double on the year to 1.9mn t in 2024-25. Chickpeas have priced at a premium after India's temporary removal of tariffs on the pulse crop. Canadian sellers have, in turn, found incentive to withhold sales, eyeing potential support to Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) prices as global exportable high-protein wheat supplies tighten. And Canadian producers have enough storage for up to two harvests' worth of crop, market participants said, further weighing on any incentive to sell. Sellers in the US have taken a similar stance, refraining from forward selling as increased wheat production from a year earlier has pressured prices, causing producers to adopt a wait-and-see attitude for those that have ample storage to hold onto harvested volumes. By Megan Evans Canada wheat production vs exports mn t Australia wheat production vs exports mn t Canada wheat export pace mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Ukraine December grain exports slow


16/12/24
16/12/24

Ukraine December grain exports slow

Kyiv, 16 December (Argus) — Ukrainian agricultural exports, already facing lower market liquidity ahead of the winter holiday period and unfavourable stormy weather affecting Black Sea ports, could be further squeezed this month after new export rules were introduced on 1 December, according to market participants. Ukraine exported only about 1.14mn t of the main grains — wheat, barley and corn — in the first half of December, according to Ukrainian customs data. This is well below the 2.43mn t exported in the same period last year. Ukrainian exporters shipped 213,000t of wheat, 37,000t of barley and 875,000t of corn on 1-16 December, compared with 763,000t, 108,000t and 1.56mn t, respectively, in the same period last year. Market participants told Argus that at least some of them faced complications and confusion with documentation after the government introduced a value-added tax export guarantee regime for exporting certain types of goods (agricultural products) outside the customs territory of Ukraine from 1 December and for the period of martial law. The new rules and complications with export documentation led to logistical problems, shipment delays and penalties from shipowners in early December, according to market participants. In this context, Ukraine's full December agricultural exports are likely to fall from last year's levels. Market participants said from January onwards, that they expect the new export registration process to become more streamlined and simplified, making it easier for exporters to ship their products. By Alexey Yeromin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's 2024-25 soybean sales ahead on year


13/12/24
13/12/24

Brazil's 2024-25 soybean sales ahead on year

Sao Paulo, 13 December (Argus) — Brazilian farmers are advancing forward sales for the 2024-25 soybean crop at a faster pace than in the prior year, spurred by the weakening Brazilian real and fears of a decrease in international prices because of global oversupply. The 2024-25 oilseed crop was approximately 33pc sold as of the end of November, market participants estimate. That accounts for 54.8mn metric tonnes (t) of the 166.2mn t projected for the entire crop by national supply company Conab. The 2023-24 crop was 28pc negotiated at the same time in 2023 based on December 2023 Conab estimates. However, final consolidated numbers for the 2023-24 crop came in at 147.7mn t, which means nearly 31pc was sold at the same time last year. A major factor boosting negotiations in recent weeks has been the weakening trend of the Brazilian real to the US dollar. Farmers usually receive payment for their sales in US dollars, which turns the more than 20pc annual depreciation of the Brazilian real into an economic upside as producers exchange those dollars back into larger quantities of reals at home. The Brazilian real-US dollar exchange rate ended the day above R6/$1 for the first time in history on 30 November and the real has hovered in that range since . A significant share of producers also worry about the impacts of record output over prices. During the harvesting months of the 2022-23 crop — which holds the current national record at 154.6mn t — domestic soybean prices and port differentials decreased sharply, and have yet to return to levels reached in prior seasons. The most optimistic market participants project 2024-25 production at up to 175mn t, a scenario very likely should weather conditions remain favorable in most of the country's main producing states. That may lead to another sharp downward trend in prices during the harvesting months. Losses could be especially intense between February-March, when most areas are set to be harvested. But these concerns were not enough to offset the seasonal reduction in farmers' pace of sales. Farmers usually postpone negotiations to the following year, while domestic demand also fizzles out as most factories from the biofuels, animal feed and food sectors undergo maintenance shutdowns in December. Negotiations advanced by 6.6mn t in November, down from 8.3mn t sold throughout October. As for the 2023-24 crop, sales are almost finished at 92pc sold of the 147.4mn t produced in the cycle, advancing by 3 percentage points from the same period a year ago. That is roughly in line with the total sold at this time last year for the 2022-23 season and the average for the end of November. Corn sales recover The 2024-25 winter corn crop negotiations reached almost 20pc sold out of expected production of 90.3mn t for the cycle. Despite being below a 30pc average for this time of the year, the sales pace posted a recovery compared with the past two years, when negotiations had barely surpassed the 12pc mark, which equates to less than 15mn t negotiated. Farmers are also ahead on the yearly comparison with the 2023-24 crop. The prior cycle is approximately 85pc — or 76.8mn t — sold through the end of November, which is roughly in line with the usual pace for this time of year. That compares with nearly 73pc and 72pc sold for the last two seasons, in 2022 and 2023, at this time of the year. Deals were halted by late 2022, as farmers expected prices to maintain an upward trend in the following year. But the opposite happened because of an oversupplied global market. Then, producers struggled to advance sales in 2023 and most of 2024, selling only according to their own financial needs and occasional price increases. The recovery seen in recent months took support from the domestic market's record demand, mainly from the animal feed and corn ethanol sectors. Both are set to reach record production levels in 2024 and repeat the feat in the next year. But the pace of sales has slowly easing in recent weeks, as is usual for this time of year when factories schedule maintenance shutdowns and collective holidays. Negotiations usually pick up once again for the domestic market by the second half of January, while sales to the export market accelerate after planting is finished around June. Market participants expect that farmers may slowly advance sales into the first half of 2024. Global corn consumption is set to surpass production by approximately 20mn t in 2024-25, according to estimates from the US Department of Agriculture. This will likely boost international prices in 2025. By Nathalia Giannetti Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Argentina corn, soy planting rises on weather


12/12/24
12/12/24

Argentina corn, soy planting rises on weather

St Louis, 12 December (Argus) — Excellent growing conditions in Argentina permitted soybean and corn planting to maintain a rapid pace the week ending 11 December, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (Bage). Soybean plating increased nearly 11 percentage points over the week, as weather conditions remained supportive. Planting progressed the most across the region north of Cordoba and in Santa Fe, where planting progressed 26 percentage points and 34 percentage points, respectively. In total, Argentina soybean planting reached 67.4pc complete, nearly eight percentage points ahead of the prior year. Growing conditions also remained supportive of crops development, with 94pc of planted soybean area experiencing optimal moisture conditions, up four percentage points from the prior year. As a result, 65pc of the crop was rated as being in excellent conditions, more than double the share of the crop rated as in excellent condition in the year prior. Crop rated in poor conditions also remained low at 1pc compared to 4pc in the year prior. Corn planting maintained its advanced pace over the week ending 11 December, reaching 55.6pc complete, or six percentage points ahead of last year's pace. Planting progressed most rapidly south of Cordoba and in the Saint Louis region, with planting progressing by more than 15 percentage points in both regions. The share of planted corn area experiencing optimal growing conditions did decline slightly over the week due to hail and frost in the south-central Buenos Aries region, down two percentage points to 94pc optimal. However, the share of the crop rated in excellent conditions gained eight percentage points from the prior week to reach 51pc. The sunflower crop outlook remains very positive, with 89pc of the crop rated in excellent condition. However, crop development was reported as 14 percentage points behind average due to late planting. Limited indications of crop failure were reported in northeastern Argentina, where harvest has begun. However, early yields in the region were reported above 2t per hectare. Wheat harvest across Argentina reached 63.9pc complete, pulling nearly nine percentage points ahead of the prior year. Yields average 2.68t per hectare, gaining 9pc from the prior week, with total harvested volumes reaching 10.6mn t. With the completion of crop tours, Bage revised acreage estimates for the southwest and basin regions higher, but these gains were offset by reductions in the central region and southeast of Buenos Aries, leaving final production estimates even with the prior week at 18.6mn t. By Ryan Koory Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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