US restates conditions for Venezuela sanctions relief

Spanish Market: Crude oil
13/07/21

The US will not substantially alter its sanctions targeting Venezuela's oil sector until Caracas holds free and fair elections, a US official said one day after Washington issued a limited waiver allowing LPG sales.

The US Treasury Department yesterday authorized Venezuela to import LPG from the US and other sources, the first crack in the wall of sanctions Washington has imposed against Caracas in recent years. But to the consternation of US authorities, Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro's government on the same day detained a close associate of opposition leader Juan Guaido, whom the US recognizes as the country's interim leader.

"Yesterday's disruption of political opposition to Mr. Maduro certainly makes it harder to demonstrate that Maduro and his supporters are going to allow this to be a level playing field," US deputy assistant secretary of state Kevin O'Reilly said today in a virtual event hosted by Washington-based think tank the Atlantic Council. "That kind of action against those political leaders is utterly unacceptable."

The US sanctions regime has made it all but impossible for Venezuela to export crude to any destination other than China, while also effectively prohibiting imports of diesel in exchange for shipments of Venezuelan crude. President Joe Biden's administration issued a joint declaration with the EU and Canada last month that promised to consider sanctions relief if the Venezuelan government and opposition forces negotiate successfully to resolve the Opec producer's protracted political and economic crisis.

Norway and the wider EU have been working behind the scenes to lay the groundwork for negotiations between the government and various factions of the political opposition, with the goal of establishing credible conditions for state and local elections in November. The US would need to see that the November ballot is truly competitive to begin considering sanctions relief, O'Reilly said.

"Certainly, based on yesterday's events, I am somewhat skeptical that there is goodwill to allow that to happen," O'Reilly said.

The US administration's relatively modest step of allowing LPG sales prompted fierce criticism from US politicians who want to maintain pressure until Maduro steps down, even though the "maximum pressure" sanctions regime imposed by former president Donald Trump achieved little over the past two years. "At the very moment the Maduro regime was abducting one prominent member of the opposition and surrounding the home of Juan Guaido trying to abduct him, the Biden administration was announcing it was removing a sanction on the regime," senator Marco Rubio (R-Florida) said yesterday via Twitter. Venezuelan ally Cuba's crackdown on rare protests on the island this week amplified calls to maintain a tough stance on Caracas.

Allowing Venezuela to import LPG — a fuel that nearly 90pc of Venezuela's population relies on for cooking — was a humanitarian gesture, O'Reilly said. "Our Treasury Department has loosened certain restrictions on cooking gas because we see that it is fundamental to the well-being of Venezuelans, their day to day lives, so that they can then focus on these more enduring political questions and help resolve their challenges."

Venezuela used to be self-sufficient in LPG, but as production dwindled it turned to US suppliers until sanctions effectively blocked access in January 2019. Removing a ban on LPG sales is unlikely to have a significant impact on trade flows from the US, at least in the near term. Venezuela would still be unable to swap LPG imports for crude. Forced to pay cash, the Venezuelan government may have little immediate incentive to direct scarce resources to LPG, despite an acute shortage.

By Haik Gugarats

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

14/11/24

Cop: German opposition pushes for Article 6

Berlin, 14 November (Argus) — Germany's main opposition parties have welcomed the progress achieved on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement in at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. They have called on Germany and the EU to make better use of the instrument to allow for more cost-efficient climate action. Germany's dominant opposition party, the right-of-centre CDU/CSU, on 14 November commended the framework under Article 6 as an efficient way of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Article 6 of the Paris accord aims to help set rules on global carbon trade. The Article 6 mechanism allows for reductions to happen where they are quickest, cheapest and easiest to be carried out, the CDU head of the working group on climate action and energy, Andreas Jung, said in a debate in the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag. The deputy head of the FDP faction Lukas Koehler, also speaking in the Bundestag on 14 November, called on Germany and the EU to "finally" integrate the Article 6 in their climate action plans. Koehler argued that if for instance Germany's progress in emissions reduction should turn out to be too slow, the country could temporarily shift its efforts — and the associated finance — to where more rapid mitigation might be achieved, such as Brazil. The EU, of which Germany is a member state, will not make use of Article 6 credits, at least until 2030, to reach its so-called nationally determined contribution (NDC) – its climate action pledge — under the Paris climate accord. The EU has been seeing progress on ongoing Article 6 negotiations at Cop 29, the European Commission's principal advisor for international aspects of EU climate policy Jacob Werksman said today, "mostly because parties are now agreeing with the EU and others that were concerned about the transparency and accountability of the bilateral markets that operate under Article 6.2". Werksman believes there is enough momentum for negotiations to be concluded next week, noting that the atmosphere has "improved" compared with previous negotiations, which echoes the sentiment expressed by a number of negotiators earlier this week . Werksman pointed in particular to the US now agreeing with others and helping to broker compromises. Koehler also warned German government representatives in Baku to refrain from "expensive" pledges which may strain the country's budget. Developed countries agreed in 2009 to deliver $100bn/yr in climate finance to developing nations, and Cop 29 is focused on the next iteration of this — the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) . In a statement, Germany — represented by Scholz despite his absence at the Cop — and other G7 members like Canada, France, or the Netherlands agreed that "developed countries must continue to take the lead and live up to existing finance commitments". Germany faces early elections as the government lost its majority last week following the sacking, by chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrat SPD, of finance minister Christian Lindner of the pro-business FDP party and the FDP's subsequent withdrawal from the ruling coalition. Polls suggest that the CDU/CSU group will easily win the next federal elections which are scheduled to take place on 23 February. The FDP's persistent refusal to allow Germany to take on more debt to enable more public funding, including of clean technologies, was the main reason for Lindner's sacking. By Chloe Jardine and Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Guyana hires floating generators to avert outages

14/11/24

Guyana hires floating generators to avert outages

Kingston, 14 November (Argus) — Guyana is lifting its floating power capacity to 111MW with the rental of plants that the government says will prevent widespread power cuts over the next two years. The government has contracted a 75MW power barge from Turkish firm Karpowership that installed a 36MW barge in May, finance minister Ashni Singh said on Wednesday. The government has not released the terms of the contracts for the floating plants that are being fired by imported heavy fuel oil. Karpowership has been given a two-year contract that the government says will expire with the scheduled commissioning of a $2bn natural gas project that includes a 300MW power plant. The project will be fed by gas from a deepwater block being worked by US major ExxonMobil. The agreements with Karpowership "will take us just beyond the period when the new plant comes on stream," Guyana's vice president Bharrat Jagdeo said. The growing oil producer in northern South America faces a widening power deficit as state power utility GPL cannot meet demand created by a rapidly expanding oil-fired economy, the government said. Power demand in the country of 750,000 people has grown from 115MW in 2020 to 175MW currently and is projected to reach 205MW by year-end, the government said. GPL's fuel oil-fired output of 165MW "does not allow for a comfortable reserve so we need adequate redundant capacity," an official told Argus . Guyana's contract for power barges from Karpowership is the company's third in the region. Six of the company's floating plants are supporting Cuba's faltering power system, while another is stationed in the Dominican Republic. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: EU ETS volatility problem for corporate CCS case

14/11/24

Cop: EU ETS volatility problem for corporate CCS case

Baku, 14 November (Argus) — Price fluctuations in the EU emissions trading system (ETS) make it difficult for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects to attract finance, delegates at a UN Cop 29 climate conference side event in Baku, Azerbaijan, heard today. Fluctuations in the EU ETS price make it more difficult to model the support provided to CCS projects through avoided compliance costs, law firm Latham & Watkins partner Jean-Philippe Brisson said. These ups and downs are "very difficult for corporates", Japanese bank MUFG director Yukimi Shimura said. The benchmark front-year EU ETS contract has closed at an average of €66.20/t ($69.82/t) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) so far this year in Argus assessments, compared with €85.30/t CO2e last year. While carbon pricing is an "absolute must" for CCS, if ETS cost avoidance is your only revenue stream it is very difficult to convince financials or board members to support projects, Swiss cement major Holcim vice president Pavan Chilukuri said, as the long-term viability of projects is not guaranteed. Additional funding is therefore needed to accelerate project implementation, Chilukuri said. This could be in the form of revenues from carbon dioxide removal credits — generated when plants run on biogenic energy and the carbon captured — or carbon contracts for difference. The CCS hub concept — where a number of sites capturing CO2 are located near each other to make use of the same transportation and storage infrastructure — can also help to limit costs, he said. But hubs come with their own cross-chain risks, Shimura said, including uncertainty surrounding liability for issues such as delays. The UK government — which is developing two CCS clusters — is doing an "excellent job" to minimise such risks, Shimura said. But more needs to be done in the US and Asia, with a role to be played by governments, she said. Most CCS activity remains concentrated in the US because incentives there are very strong and fixed for 12 years, Brisson said, referring to the $85/t tax credit for CCS offered under the country's Inflation Reduction Act. But even this is now "not good enough", Shimura said, as inflation has pushed costs up since the figure was set. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IEA sees wider oil market surplus next year

14/11/24

IEA sees wider oil market surplus next year

London, 14 November (Argus) — The IEA is predicting a global oil supply surplus of over 1mn b/d next year, which it says will provide "much-needed stability" to the market. The Paris-based agency's latest Oil Market Report (OMR) shows a 1.15mn b/d supply surplus next year, the highest since it first started projecting supply and demand levels for 2025 in April this year. It is 40,000 b/d higher than its estimate last month. "With supply risks omnipresent, a looser balance would provide some much-needed stability to a market upended by the Covid pandemic, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and, most recently, heightened unrest in the Middle East," the IEA said. The IEA's projected supply surplus could be much higher if Opec+ members push ahead with a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" production cuts from January over a 12-month period. But this is not guaranteed. Weaker-than-expected demand has already forced the Opec+ members to delay their plan to start increasing output by three months. Opec+ ministers are set to decide on their output policy for 2025 and beyond in a meeting on 1 December. The IEA's oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next remain below 1mn b/d — a steep drop compared with 2mn b/d last year and 2.5mn b/d in 2022. For this year, the IEA has raised its oil demand growth projection by 60,000 b/d to 920,000 b/d, mostly because of higher-than-expected consumption in Europe. Its forecast for next year has been nudged down by 10,000 b/d to 990,000 b/d compared with last month's OMR. Much of the slowdown in global consumption centres on China, where the economy is not growing as fast as it once did. The IEA has kept its oil demand growth for China unchanged at 150,000 b/d for this year, but this is far below the 710,000 b/d it was forecasting in January. The agency said Chinese oil demand contracted for a sixth straight month in September, pushing consumption in the third quarter 270,000 b/d below year-earlier levels. For next year, the IEA has lowered its Chinese demand growth forecast by 30,000 b/d to 190,000 b/d. China's slowing oil demand is also due to an increased uptake of electric vehicles, LNG-powered trucks and high-speed rail, the IEA said. On global supply, the IEA has trimmed its growth estimate for this year by 20,000 b/d to 640,000 b/d. But for next year, it sees supply growth accelerating to more than 2mn b/d, led by the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina. The agency said global observed oil stocks declined by 47.5mn bl in September to their lowest level since January. It also said preliminary data show stocks fell further in October. By Aydin Calik Supply and demand balance Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Argentina pulls delegation from Baku

13/11/24

Cop: Argentina pulls delegation from Baku

Montevideo, 13 November (Argus) — Argentina's government today withdrew its delegation from the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. The country's foreign affairs ministry confirmed to Argus that the delegation had been told to leave the event, which began on 11 November and will run through 22 November. No reason was given for the decision, but it fits the general policies of President Javier Milei, who has expressed skepticism about climate change. Milei eliminated the country's environment ministry shortly after taking office in December 2023. He is also pursuing investment to monetize oil and gas reserves, with a focus on the Vaca Muerta unconventional formation. Vaca Muerta has an estimated 308 trillion cf of natural gas and 16bn bl of oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In October, the government created the Argentina LNG division with a plan to involve private companies and the state-owned YPF to produce and export up to 30mn metric tonnes (t)/yr of LNG by 2030. It wants to export 1mn bl of crude. The plans are closely linked to a new investment framework, known as RIGI, that will provide incentives for large-scale investments. The administration is also pushing hard for investment in critical minerals, including copper and lithium. Argentina has the world's second-largest lithium resources, estimated at 22mn t by the US Geological Survey. It has copper potential that the RIGI would help tap. The government has not specified if pulling out of Cop 29 means Argentina will withdraw from the Paris Agreement, which Argentina ratified in 2016. The country's nationally determined contribution calls for net emissions not to exceed 359mn t of CO2 by 2030. This represents a 21pc reduction of emissions from the maximum reached in 2007. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more