China to cut 2021 steel exports under green shift: SIFW

Spanish Market: Metals
14/07/21

China's steel exports will fall this year under a government policy to cut or maintain crude steel output at 2020 levels, a top executive at major producer Hebei Iron & Steel (Hesteel) said.

The country's steel exports are expected to decline in 2021 compared to last year, while imports of finished and semi-finished steel products will increase, Mu Guoqiang, head of steel import and export at Hesteel, said during a panel discussion at the Singapore Exchange's virtual Singapore International Ferrous Week (SIFW) 2021.

This is in line with Beijing's goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 that will require its steelmakers to cut production over the period.

The mid-year policy change will require a significant slowdown in China's steel exports, which rose by 30pc to 37.38mn t in the first half. That is an annualised pace of 74.76mn t, which is 39pc higher than the 53.68mn t exported in 2020.

China's steelmakers, especially state-owned mills like Hesteel, have no other choice but to follow the policy to cut output and exports, he said.

Mu's view is in line with that of market participants surveyed by Argus. An east China mill has already been informed by local officials to maintain zero growth in its steel exports compared with last year. Another mill in the same region has been required to shut down six blast furnaces after its first-half output greatly exceeded year-earlier volumes. The mill has stopped stop making export offers and will only negotiate on a case-by-case basis, market participants said.

Major Chinese mills have stopped quoting coil export offers, forcing Vietnamese buyers to chase Indian deals that [pushed the Asean hot-rolled coil (HRC) index up by $8/t to $918/t yesterday](HRC).

Chinese domestic prices are at a wide discount to overseas steel prices, but its mills also face obstacles to obtaining credit and high-cost raw materials, leaving no profit for mills, especially the large producers, Mu said. The Argus Chinese HRC Shanghai index was at 5,780 yuan/t ($893/t) ex-warehouse yesterday, while the US Midwest HRC domestic price is much higher at an equivalent of $2,006.21/t.

Others are looking to fill the supply gap left by China in seaborne steel markets.

The potential for more low-priced steel exports from India to Asian countries could be another threat to global steel markets including China, trading firm Duferco's managing director Subhendu Bose said during the panel discussion. Many vessels heading from India to EU are waiting at ports with cargoes not being cleared, as Indian mills have already fulfilled their export quota into the EU and are waiting for a new fourth-quarter quota to be announced.

The oversupply of Indian steel may find ways to other Asian countries where domestic demand has slowed because of spreading Covid-19 cases, he said.

Indian mills sold 40,000-50,000t of SAE1006 grade coils into Vietnam last week at $915-925/t cfr, much lower than their official offers of $990/t cfr two weeks earlier, Argus data show.

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20/12/24

Viewpoint: Copper volatility, uncertainty ahead in 2025

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Viewpoint: PGM demand from hydrogen sector to rise

20/12/24

Viewpoint: PGM demand from hydrogen sector to rise

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US Congress passes waterways bill

19/12/24

US Congress passes waterways bill

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Q&A: Xcelsior aims to derisk minor metals investment

19/12/24

Q&A: Xcelsior aims to derisk minor metals investment

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EU HRC imports drop a quarter on safeguards, AD probe

19/12/24

EU HRC imports drop a quarter on safeguards, AD probe

London, 19 December (Argus) — EU hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports have dropped by 24pc year on year in October, as a result of the safeguards changes introduced earlier in the year and the anti-dumping (AD) probe on key suppliers launched in August. Volumes amounted to 1.16mn t. The drop was underpinned by sharp declines from Japan, Egypt, Vietnam, Taiwan and South Korea. Meanwhile, other countries stepped in to fill the supply gap, such as Turkey, Ukraine and Serbia — deemed less risky for buyers, with all ramping up their volumes year on year by 292pc, 69.5pc and 172.8pc, respectively. Turkey was the top supplier with 222,760t in October. Imports from Indonesia also notably increased, by 41.5pc on the year to 29,140t. This volume will be likely to grow over November-March, but the country is expected to no longer be exempt from the safeguard measures from April onwards, market participants said. The European Commission this week launched an early review of the tariff-rate quotas, with changes, including on the developing countries list, to be introduced from April. Import supply is likely to drop further over the rest of the year, and into the first quarter, with January the last month in which residual larger volumes from countries under investigation can be custom cleared. Sales from Japan, Egypt, Vietnam and India, all under the scope of the AD probe , have mostly stopped over the current quarter. Cold-rolled coil (CRC) imports are meanwhile on the rise, with 281,336t clearing in October, up by 33.4pc on the year and 53.5pc on the month. Taiwan was the top supplier with 64,208t, followed by Turkey and India with just over 40,000t each. The increase in Taiwanese imports, which are expected to rise further, have fuelled talks in the market of a potential AD investigation. Similarly, hot-dipped galvanised (HDG) imports rose by 60.1pc on the year to 802,688t, of which 270,226t was from Vietnam, representing a 279.1pc increase year on year. Market participants have expected a probe on Vietnamese HDG for a while, but following the safeguards review launch said that a reduction in quota volumes might hit downstream products such as HDG and CRC in particular. Plate imports have also nudged up, but more modestly, by 6.9pc on the year in October to 222,133t. Rebar and wire rod arrivals were up by 170.6pc and 46.5pc on the year, respectively. By Lora Stoyanova EU HRC imports t Oct-24 ±% Oct-23 Total 1,164,750 -24 Turkey 222,760 292 Japan 164,691 -38.2 Egypt 148,979 -19.7 Vietnam 144,512 -54.7 Taiwan 127,350 -54.5 Ukraine 103,003 69.5 South Korea 90,674 -45.9 Serbia 55,372 172.8 Australia 30,690 -62.4 Indonesia 29,140 41.5 — GTT Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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