Opec+ issues August, September quotas

Spanish Market: Crude oil
26/07/21

The Opec+ coalition's two largest producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, can raise crude output to 9.6mn b/d in August and 9.704mn b/d in September, according to quotas seen by Argus.

Both countries can lift production by just over 100,000 b/d in each of the two months, as outlined in an Opec+ internal document (see table for full August and September group quotas).

This follows the 18 July approval by Opec+ for a collective 400,000 b/d output increase in each month of the August 2021-April 2022 period, and then of a rise of around 432,000 b/d from May next year until the group's cuts are unwound by the end of 2022. This includes a three-month window in which the group can pause these increases in response to any change in the fundamental outlook.

As of next May, the baseline levels that determine individual countries' output targets and compliance will be raised for five participants — the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq and Kuwait.

Opec+ will hold regular ministerial meetings that will approve or adjust the 400,000 b/d monthly rises, and will meet on 1 September to decide quotas beyond that month, a delegate said.

The latest Opec+ policy was agreed following a two-week impasse, leaving deal participants with just under two weeks to adjust their August export or refinery-use programmes to accommodate the higher output. But the small pro-rata distribution of the increase will probably see some of the additional crude head into storage. More than half of the deal's participants will raise production by or under 10,000 b/d next month — not enough to accumulate a standard-size 600,000 bl export cargo. Mideast Gulf producers had allocated their August-loading supplies in the first half of July, although Russia's more-prompt loading schedule releases may have allowed for higher output to be reflected in exports. A loading programme circulated today shows exports of Urals and Siberian Light crude higher by 8pc on the month in August.

Saudi Arabia faces sharply higher crude-burn requirements to meet air conditioning needs in the summer moths. Riyadh saw its highest level of direct crude burn of 2020, at 702,000 b/d, in August, according to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi).

By Ruxandra Iordache

Opec+ quotas				mn b/d
Country	Baseline	July target	August target	September target

Saudi Arabia	11.000	9.495	9.600	9.704
Iraq	4.653	4.016	4.061	4.105
Kuwait	2.809	2.425	2.451	2.478
UAE	3.168	2.735	2.765	2.795
Algeria	1.057	0.912	0.922	0.932
Nigeria	1.829	1.579	1.596	1.614
Angola	1.528	1.319	1.333	1.348
Congo (Brazzaville)	0.325	0.281	0.284	0.287
Gabon	0.187	0.161	0.163	0.165
Equatorial Guinea	0.127	0.110	0.111	0.112
Opec total	26.683	23.033	23.286	23.540
Russia	11.000	9.495	9.600	9.704
Mexico	1.753	1.753	1.753	1.753
Oman	0.883	0.762	0.771	0.779
Azerbaijan	0.718	0.620	0.627	0.633
Kazakhstan	1.709	1.475	1.491	1.508
Malaysia	0.595	0.514	0.519	0.525
Bahrain	0.205	0.177	0.179	0.181
Brunei	0.102	0.088	0.089	0.090
Sudan	0.075	0.065	0.065	0.066
South Sudan	0.130	0.112	0.113	0.115
Non-Opec total	17.170	13.308	13.454	13.601
Opec+ total	43.853	36.341	36.740	37.141
Source: OPEC document
*Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempted from cuts under the current deal

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16/11/24

Cop: Parties continue slow work on finance goal: Update

Updates throughout Baku, 16 November (Argus) — Parties at the UN Cop 29 climate talks in Baku have asked for more time to work on "specific proposals" for a new finance goal, working from a draft text released yesterday , but it is unlikely to yield progress on key sticking points. Country representatives are seeking to agree on a new climate finance goal for developing nations, following on from the current — broadly recognised as inadequate — $100bn/yr target. A plenary is due to take place later today in Baku. "Over the last few days some people have doubted whether collectively we can deliver. It is time for the negotiators to start proving them wrong," Cop 29 deputy lead negotiator Samir Bejanov said. The current draft text still fails to bridge the huge divide between developed and developing countries on key issues such as an amount for the goal, the contributor base and what the funds should be used for. And the new version due to come out today is unlikely to show meaningful progress on these issues, observers suggested, leaving them for ministers to tackle next week. Technical negotiators continue to try and move forward on topics such as funds' access and transparency. Developed countries have still not proposed a number for the goal, and want the contributor base broadened. Developing countries remain broadly united in calling for climate public finance of over $1 trillion/yr. Options show that developing country parties seek a new finance goal that serves mitigation — actions to reduce emissions — adaptation and loss and damage. Adaptation refers to adjustments to avoid global warming effects where possible, while loss and damage describes the unavoidable and irreversible effects of such change. Developed nations are also pushing for sub-targets of $220bn/yr for least developed countries (LDCs) and $39bn/yr for small island developing states (Sids), in which money for adaptation should come in the form of grants and highly concessional finance and funding for loss and damage "primarily in grants". Multi-layered The multi-layered approach in the draft, mostly supported by developed countries, does not mention loss and damage. On broadening the contributor base, it has options calling on "parties in a position to contribute" or "all capable parties" to "mobilise jointly $100bn/yr for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries by 2035". The UN climate body the UNFCCC works from a list of developed and developing countries from 1992 — delineating 24 countries plus the EU as developed — and many of these note that economic circumstances have changed in some countries, including China, over the past 32 years. China between 2013 and 2022 provided and mobilised $45bn in climate finance to developing countries, equivalent to 6.1pc of climate finance provided by all developed countries in the period, according to think-tank WRI. A few options in the multi-layered approach in the draft talk about "investments", language that developing countries do not support, and "investing trillions "from all sources, public, private, domestic and international". Developing nations are not against private sector financing, but they want the main figure for the new finance goal to come from public sources, observers said. Some parties on both sides are calling for an acceleration of the reforms of multilateral development banks, key to leverage billions in private sector finance, as well as for the use of taxes and levies. But these issues are largely outside of the remit of the Cop, even though they may get a boost from the upcoming G20 leaders summit on 18-19 November. UN climate body chief Simon Stiell today called on G20 to ensure the availability of more grant and concessional finance, make progress on debt relief, and push for additional multilateral development bank reforms. Brazil is looking to use its G20 presidency to advance agreement on energy transition finance, having set fighting climate change as one of its priorities. The country called for a global finance governance that includes rules for financing a "just and equitable" energy transition in developing economies and for an easier access to climate funds. Brazil has also pushing for a 2pc tax on billionaires that could generate up to $250 bn/yr in revenue. By Victoria Hatherick, Jacqueline Echevarria and Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Colombia’s climate plan to address fossil fuels

16/11/24

Cop: Colombia’s climate plan to address fossil fuels

Baku, 16 November (Argus) — Colombia will seek to address the "divisive issue" of "the proliferation of fossil fuels" in its next emissions reduction plan — nationally determined contribution (NDC), environment minister Susanna Muhammad told Argus, adding that it would prompt a "strong debate" in the country. Colombia's president Gustavo Petro seeks to end the country's dependence on fossil fuels, while promoting a transition to clean and renewable energy. "Of course this is a very divisive issue, especially for a country that is looking for a whole economy transition," Muhammad said on the sidelines of the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku. "And trying to get the whole of society and the whole of government behind that will be a strong debate." Petro ordered an end to new hydrocarbon exploration and production contracts soon after taking office in August 2022. Petroleum association ACP said that Colombia's crude output will begin declining in 2027 as reserves are insufficient to maintain output amid falling exploratory activity. Petro's ambition to phase out fossil fuels risks sacrificing key revenues for the country. But Muhammad highlighted the need to achieve an ambitious financial goal that supports a just transition in developing economies. "We cannot continue playing with the same financial rules of the game," she said. "What we are seeing at this Cop 29 is that we need solidarity and fairness in the process of financing this transition." "We said in Dubai that we would triple renewables by 2030. The question remains, who is going to triple renewables and for whom?" she said, pointing to the significant gap in renewables expansion between developed and developing economies. Countries at Cop 28 in Dubai, the UAE, last year agreed on a deal that included transitioning away from fossil fuels, tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling annual energy efficiency gains globally by 2030. Muhammad added that the country will be submitting its NDC to the UN climate body the UNFCCC by June next year because it will "go through a very strong consultation process" with different sectors of the economy. Cop parties are expected to publish their next NDCs to the Paris climate agreement — this time for 2035 — in November-February, as part of a cycle that requires countries to "ratchet up" their commitments every five years. "Our main source of emissions is deforestation, agriculture practices, especially cattle ranching," she said, adding that the government is seeking the participation of actors that are at the forefront of the climate crisis. Risky business Talking about the possibility of the US pulling out of the the Paris Agreement and Argentina's delegation exiting negotiations in Baku, she warned that by not putting the people first in the fight against climate change, leaders are risking that other "authoritarian" regimes or "climate deniers" take more power. Brazil's secretary for climate change Ana Toni said today that private companies like policy consistency and that businesses need to look at the countries that are showing climate commitment and consistency in their NDCs. "The climate crisis is irreversible, we need to focus on climate action and implementation," Toni said. By Jacqueline Echevarria Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Parties continue work on new finance goal

16/11/24

Cop: Parties continue work on new finance goal

Baku, 16 November (Argus) — Parties at the UN Cop 29 climate talks in Baku have asked for more time to work on "specific proposals" for a new finance goal, working from a draft text released yesterday , before convening for a plenary session later today, according to the summit's presidency. Country representatives are seeking to agree on a new climate finance goal for developing nations, following on from the current — broadly recognised as inadequate — $100bn/yr target. The draft text still fails to bridge the huge divide between developed and developing countries on key issues such as an amount for the goal, the contributor base and what the funds should be used for. A plenary is due to take place later today in Baku. "Over the last few days some people have doubted whether collectively we can deliver. It is time for the negotiators to start proving them wrong," Cop 29 deputy lead negotiator Samir Bejanov said. Parties continue to stick to their positions. Developed countries have still not come forward with a number for the goal, and want the contributor base broadened. Developing countries remain broadly united in calling for climate public finance of over $1 trillion/yr. Options show that developing country parties seek a new finance goal that serves mitigation — actions to reduce emissions — adaptation and loss and damage. Adaptation refers to adjustments to avoid global warming effects where possible, while loss and damage describes the unavoidable and irreversible effects of such change. Developed nations are also pushing for sub-targets of $220bn/yr for least developed countries (LDCs) and $39bn/yr for small island developing states (Sids), in which money for adaptation should come in the form of grants and highly concessional finance and funding for loss and damage "primarily in grants". The multi-layered approach in the draft, mostly supported by developed countries, does not mention loss and damage. On broadening the contributor base, it has options calling on "parties in a position to contribute" or "all capable parties" to "mobilise jointly $100bn/yr for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries by 2035. The UN climate body the UNFCCC works from a list of developed and developing countries from 1992 — delineating 24 countries plus the EU as developed — and many of these note that economic circumstances have changed in some countries, including China, over the past 32 years. China between 2013 and 2022 provided $45bn in climate finance to developing countries, equivalent to 6.1pc of climate finance provided by all developed countries in the period, according to think-tank WRI. A few options in the multi-layered approach in the draft talk about "investments", which developing countries do not support, and "investing trillions "from all sources, public, private, domestic and international". Some parties on both sides are calling for the reforms of multilateral development banks, key to leverage billions in private sector finance, to accelerate. But these issues are largely outside of the remit of the Cop, even though they may get a boost from the upcoming G20 leaders summit on 18-19 November. UN climate body chief Simon Stiell [today urged G20 leaders to make the climate crisis](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/262963 "order of business number one". He called on G20 to ensure the availability of more grant and concessional finance, make progress on debt relief, and push for additional multi-lateral development bank reforms. Brazil is looking to use its G20 presidency to advance agreement on energy transition finance, having set fighting climate change as one of its G20 priorities. The country called for a global finance governance that includes rules for financing a "just and equitable" energy transition in developing economies and for an easier access to climate funds. Brazil has also pushing for a 2pc tax on billionaires that could generate up to $250 bn/yr in revenue. By Victoria Hatherick and Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: UN’s Stiell urges G20 to make climate its priority

16/11/24

Cop: UN’s Stiell urges G20 to make climate its priority

Baku, 16 November (Argus) — Leaders at next week's G20 summit should make the climate crisis "order of business number one" as negotiations on a new climate finance goal continue at the UN Cop 29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, UN climate body chief Simon Stiell said today. "Stepping it up on climate finance globally requires action both inside our Cop process and outside of it," Stiell said, and the G20's role is "mission critical". Stiell called on G20 leaders meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on 18-19 November to ensure the availability of more grant and concessional finance, make progress on debt relief, and push for additional multi-lateral development bank reforms. Some delegates at Cop have noted that the outcome of the G20 meeting will be key for climate finance . G20 in India last year recognised the need to increase global climate investments to trillions of dollars from billions, from all sources, highlighting that $5.8 trillion-5.9 trillion is required before 2030 for developing countries to implement their climate plans. The communique had called on "parties" to set an ambitious goal from $100bn/yr floor, which developed countries committed to mobilise through 2025. Brazil this year is looking to use its G20 presidency to advance agreement on energy transition finance , having set fighting climate change as one of its G20 priorities. The country called for a global finance governance that includes rules for financing a "just and equitable" energy transition in developing economies and for an easier access to climate funds. Brazil has also pushing for a 2pc tax on billionaires that could generate up to $250 bn/yr in revenue. Stiell said today that there is a "long way to go" on talks to agree a new climate finance goal for developing nations in Baku. A round of informal consultations on a third draft text took place late yesterday , but the document was still far off striking a compromise between developed and developing countries on central aspects including the amount of funds to be given, which countries should contribute, and how the money should be used. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: German opposition pushes for Article 6

14/11/24

Cop: German opposition pushes for Article 6

Berlin, 14 November (Argus) — Germany's main opposition parties have welcomed the progress achieved on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement in at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. They have called on Germany and the EU to make better use of the instrument to allow for more cost-efficient climate action. Germany's dominant opposition party, the right-of-centre CDU/CSU, on 14 November commended the framework under Article 6 as an efficient way of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Article 6 of the Paris accord aims to help set rules on global carbon trade. The Article 6 mechanism allows for reductions to happen where they are quickest, cheapest and easiest to be carried out, the CDU head of the working group on climate action and energy, Andreas Jung, said in a debate in the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag. The deputy head of the FDP faction Lukas Koehler, also speaking in the Bundestag on 14 November, called on Germany and the EU to "finally" integrate the Article 6 in their climate action plans. Koehler argued that if for instance Germany's progress in emissions reduction should turn out to be too slow, the country could temporarily shift its efforts — and the associated finance — to where more rapid mitigation might be achieved, such as Brazil. The EU, of which Germany is a member state, will not make use of Article 6 credits, at least until 2030, to reach its so-called nationally determined contribution (NDC) – its climate action pledge — under the Paris climate accord. The EU has been seeing progress on ongoing Article 6 negotiations at Cop 29, the European Commission's principal advisor for international aspects of EU climate policy Jacob Werksman said today, "mostly because parties are now agreeing with the EU and others that were concerned about the transparency and accountability of the bilateral markets that operate under Article 6.2". Werksman believes there is enough momentum for negotiations to be concluded next week, noting that the atmosphere has "improved" compared with previous negotiations, which echoes the sentiment expressed by a number of negotiators earlier this week . Werksman pointed in particular to the US now agreeing with others and helping to broker compromises. Koehler also warned German government representatives in Baku to refrain from "expensive" pledges which may strain the country's budget. Developed countries agreed in 2009 to deliver $100bn/yr in climate finance to developing nations, and Cop 29 is focused on the next iteration of this — the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) . In a statement, Germany — represented by Scholz despite his absence at the Cop — and other G7 members like Canada, France, or the Netherlands agreed that "developed countries must continue to take the lead and live up to existing finance commitments". Germany faces early elections as the government lost its majority last week following the sacking, by chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrat SPD, of finance minister Christian Lindner of the pro-business FDP party and the FDP's subsequent withdrawal from the ruling coalition. Polls suggest that the CDU/CSU group will easily win the next federal elections which are scheduled to take place on 23 February. The FDP's persistent refusal to allow Germany to take on more debt to enable more public funding, including of clean technologies, was the main reason for Lindner's sacking. By Chloe Jardine and Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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